The 7 day moving average of new cases is far above any previous number. We've hit well over 100k the past few days in a row. We passed the previous 7-day average high on Oct 26 and it's gone nearly vertical since. The last peak for the 7 day for new cases was on July 25. The corresponding peak of the highest 7 day average for deaths was on August 4 and we could have expected it to pass the previous average around the 5th or 6th, given the rise of new cases that we've seen recently, but it's not quite there yet. We don't know exactly if that's because of better treatment, more tests, or a weaker virus, but we can see a lessening of the strength of the correlation between those numbers. Having said that, we've been beyond that number 4 of the last 6 days, and should jump beyond it on the 8th or 9th at the current rate. The moving average for the last 3 days is at 188% percent of the previous peak moving 7 day where those numbers were derived. Using that, we should expect to see somewhere between 2000-2200 deaths per day as the 7 day moving average again, probably within the next 10-14 days. If the number of cases continues to rise, we'll blow past the previous high for the 7 day moving average for deaths per day (about 2250/day) from way back in April.

Looking at where the numbers are moving in relation to this from a few days ago there's a much weaker correlation between deaths and cases than we had in either wave. We're only now approaching the peak moving 7 day average for the 2nd wave over the summer, despite the number of cases being double the number (7 day moving avg) from that same time period.

We are unlikely to hit 2000 deaths per day and the curve overall may not jump to the heights that we are expecting, or if it does, it may not be until there are even more cases than we have right now (guessing a number upwards of 250k new cases per day).

We know that more testing is showing more cases, but there's also much better therapeutics which are having a positive effect. There's not enough to know how much, if any, the dna of the virus is weakening as it replicates, but it could be having some impact as we get deeper into the 3rd wave.

There's no reason to stop trying to keep things in hand here. The number of infected in the US still only amounts to 3.2% of the population. So we're a long, long way away from just giving up and tossing our cards. But there is reason to believe that we don't need to panic just yet, or over react. As I've said all along, it's about managing it, and finding that happy medium where we fight it on all fronts, and keep driving the number of deaths down as cases rise. The macro numbers there are continuing to trend in the right direction.

There are a number of hospital systems on the verge of capacity with some already turning away patients. Where that's happening, there's already a crisis. The deaths are going to go up in those areas because there aren't staff for patients and people will avoid going to the hospital even for critical care.

We are absolutely going to hit 2k deaths a day. Death is a lagging indicator and we haven't seen levels like this before. Exponential growth and the collapse of some health care systems soon.

Looking at where the numbers are moving in relation to this from a few days ago there's a much weaker correlation between deaths and cases than we had in either wave. We're only now approaching the peak moving 7 day average for the 2nd wave over the summer, despite the number of cases being double the number (7 day moving avg) from that same time period.

We are unlikely to hit 2000 deaths per day and the curve overall may not jump to the heights that we are expecting, or if it does, it may not be until there are even more cases than we have right now (guessing a number upwards of 250k new cases per day).

.

Deaths lag by 14+ days statistically ... Summer peak cases 66k July 15th (yes it rose by another 2k, but that's really where you hit the peak before essentially plateuing. Picking out the end of that plateu isn't sensible for a comparison with now, where it is still accelerating) , summer peak deaths 1170 (Aug 2nd)

Oct 28th was 75k cases, deaths Nov14th were 1150 and climbing rapidly. Cases Nov14th 153k and still climbing rapidly (accelerated growth after Nov1 actually).

Yeah, you can make a case it's a little less of a corelation but that still puts the US on a path to 2k+ soonish and pretty much already baked in. That's sth to rage against and any "happy medium" has to include preventing more infections. Just getting better at treating it (and it won't anymore. What you see now is what you get until designated therapeutics are developed and those are not coming before the end of Winter).

It's not just Covid deaths either: What about people not getting the help they need ? (Excess mortally) What about those with Covid and other shits having their Quality of life severely impacted short of dying ? For everybody dying there is another or two who'll have his life cut short. A ton of people 'recovered' from Covid are actually suffered strokes and major thrombosis during.

And that's not counting the 'mild' cases with mid to longterm effects who might well get better but looses their QOL in the interim in any case, have to put their careers/jobs on hold etc. Or all those missing out on care for other stuff because of unavoidable restrictions, precautions and restructuring by Hospitals and other providers.

Great news!

Dow and S&P are up 1%+. Nasdaq is down a little (but was up more this morning, not sure if the Moderna news impacted it).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html
The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective against coronavirus, according to early data released Monday by the company, making it the second vaccine in the United States to have a stunningly high success rate.

"These are obviously very exciting results," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease doctor. "It's just as good as it gets -- 94.5% is truly outstanding."

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A key difference: The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine must be stored at -70 C , while Moderna’s can be kept at -20°C. Once thawed, the Moderna vaccine can remain stable for 30 days at 2° to 8°C - home refrigerator temperatures. <a href="https://t.co/E53yKEPULa">https://t.co/E53yKEPULa</a></p>&mdash; Martin Enserink (@martinenserink) <a href="https://twitter.com/martinenserink/status/1328314010555527169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Most likely you are right. But after all, each of us, deep down, hopes for the best. If not all, then many expect that statistics will subside and we will be able to return to the usual life as much as possible. In a year of reporting on COVID, we are already exhausted.

Of course we are. Though not as exhausted by half as those behind those statistics and those trying to prevent/improve them. And there's a reason the adage doesn't stop at "hope for the best" but adds a second part to it.

As an aside, things are dire if a german government tries to combat it with humour:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The German government COVID message for those with limited knowledge of German now subtitled in English by me. <a href="https://t.co/nGijkMj5H0">pic.twitter.com/nGijkMj5H0</a></p>&mdash; Axel Antoni (@antoni_UK) <a href="https://twitter.com/antoni_UK/status/1327696615159816195?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And yes, of course plenty of the internet makes it about them ("how dare they belittle the struggle we face and how dare they not talk about those who can't well just sit home") when in reality this telegraphs who they are adressing very clearly and who they are asking to abstain from what.

Heard on the news today South Dakota has a 58% positivity rate, yet the governor hasn't put any restrictions in place. The reporter said they have been there a day and virtually no one wearing masks, distancing, and it is business as usual.

I get the mouth breathers who will never let the man tell them what to do, but how can government officials who are literally being begged by their own health care workers to take simple steps for prevention be so complicit?

That's pretty glorious.

Edit: whomario's post, obviously.

Heard on the news today South Dakota has a 58% positivity rate, yet the governor hasn't put any restrictions in place. The reporter said they have been there a day and virtually no one wearing masks, distancing, and it is business as usual.

I get the mouth breathers who will never let the man tell them what to do, but how can government officials who are literally being begged by their own health care workers to take simple steps for prevention be so complicit?


The MAGA Queen Governor was bragging about their handling of covid a few months ago and turned away the unemployment benefits because they were doing so well.

Washington is going into a semi-shutdown at midnight tonight. No indoor dining, gyms and movie theaters closed, 25% capacity at retail and grocery stores, office workers strongly encouraged to work from home.

Panic buying in full force right now. We saw this coming and stocked up a bit over the past week to avoid the panic buying rush.

Washington is going into a semi-shutdown at midnight tonight. No indoor dining, gyms and movie theaters closed, 25% capacity at retail and grocery stores, office workers strongly encouraged to work from home.

Panic buying in full force right now. We saw this coming and stocked up a bit over the past week to avoid the panic buying rush.

Good on TP?

Good on TP?

What kind of dipshit asks a question like that? :D

Yes, we're good.

Washington is going into a semi-shutdown at midnight tonight. No indoor dining, gyms and movie theaters closed, 25% capacity at retail and grocery stores, office workers strongly encouraged to work from home.

Panic buying in full force right now. We saw this coming and stocked up a bit over the past week to avoid the panic buying rush.

I had to unfollow a friend from Seattle today who is screaming on Facebook that there is zero data showing indoor dining contributes to the spread and this is government controlling us.

Meanwhile friends who own a bar in Seattle are in full support.

I had to unfollow a friend from Seattle today who is screaming on Facebook that there is zero data showing indoor dining contributes to the spread and this is government controlling us.

Meanwhile friends who own a bar in Seattle are in full support.

TBH, I don't know if there has been studies that show in-door dining has contributed to the spread assuming diners are 6ft apart and wear masks in common areas.

Honest question - has there been an uptick of infected flyers? Although everyone is wearing masks, they are stuck in a tube and less than 6ft apart for hours.

Good article from WSJ that we don't know how the majority are getting it because both the US and Europe at horrible at contact tracing.

As COVID-19 surges, the big unknown is where people are getting infected (https://apple.news/AXVBjgT5IRJ-8PMn-QbW99Q)

Heard on the news today South Dakota has a 58% positivity rate, yet the governor hasn't put any restrictions in place. The reporter said they have been there a day and virtually no one wearing masks, distancing, and it is business as usual.

I get the mouth breathers who will never let the man tell them what to do, but how can government officials who are literally being begged by their own health care workers to take simple steps for prevention be so complicit?

Read this twitter thread. People are screaming about the Covid hoax while they are in the hospital dying.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is</p>&mdash; Jodi Doering (@JodiDoering) <a href="https://twitter.com/JodiDoering/status/1327771329555292162?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Idiots were out protesting mask wearing in front of a locally owned grocerery store in Mill Creek yesterday.

Read this twitter thread. People are screaming about the Covid hoax while they are in the hospital dying.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is</p>&mdash; Jodi Doering (@JodiDoering) <a href="https://twitter.com/JodiDoering/status/1327771329555292162?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Send em home to die

TBH, I don't know if there has been studies that show in-door dining has contributed to the spread assuming diners are 6ft apart and wear masks in common areas.

Honest question - has there been an uptick of infected flyers? Although everyone is wearing masks, they are stuck in a tube and less than 6ft apart for hours.

I remember seeing a study a while back about restaurants, but they all run together at this point. I do for a fact remember seeing the air filtration systems in planes get rid of over 99% of the particles.

What kind of dipshit asks a question like that?

Well played, sir.

Where I am we've seen the beginning of holiday and panic shopping hit over the start of the next week. Somebody came in recently and bought over 20 loaves of bread, unapologetically for the express purpose of hoarding. I give them points for honesty, but not much else, particularly when the vendor tried to convince them of the self-evident fact that some of it will go bad before they can use it.

It's only a few items out where I shop - some types of beans, corned beef hash, tp and paper towel etc., bread/butter are all fine. But the combination of holiday sales and the virus will do bad things in time for sure. I'm curious how well we collectively handle it and how much different it is than the spring.

Good article on info regarding covid tests and meeting with family over the holidays.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/thanksgiving-family-covid-testing-wellness/index.html

Key points:

1) Incubation period is up to 10 days. Lots of false positives if taken too early

The study estimated that during four days of infection before symptoms typically started, the probability of getting an incorrect/negative test result on Day 1 was 100%.

On the day people started showing symptoms, the average false-negative rate had dropped to 38%, according to the study. Three days after symptoms started, the false-negative rate dropped to 20%.
:
"There is no hard and fast rule, but the evidence suggests getting a test before the third day after exposure is not of much use," Lessler said.

2) Lots of infections by asymptomatic people.

For people who get sick with Covid-19, symptoms can take up to two weeks to appear, but the average time is about five days, Walensky said.

"It's generally thought that you're most infectious the two days before that day and the two days after that," she said.

One reason why this virus spreads so easily is because people can be infectious without any symptoms. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 40% of infections are asymptomatic, and 50% of transmissions happen before symptoms begin.

3) Rule of thumb if visiting relatives

"If you are visiting an elderly family member and have a reasonable risk of having been exposed, there is no substitute for 14 days of quarantine," Lessler said.

"At the very least I would wait 10 days (of quarantining) and have a negative test," he said.

"If you are visiting a younger, healthy family member and have little chance of being exposed before or during travel, then 5 or 7 days (of quarantine) plus a negative test is probably plenty of risk reduction, though no guarantee of safety."
:
It's important to strictly quarantine not just before your Covid-19 test, but after your test as well.

"You should definitely remain in quarantine while awaiting test results and make sure everyone you are getting together with is on the same page about the plan for controlling infection risk," Lessler said.

4) Essentially, best way to celebrate the holidays is remotely.


I think I'll mention to the wife not to take the drive to TX the week after Christmas.

What kind of dipshits asks a question like that? :D

Yes, we're good.

FIFY

Where I am we've seen the beginning of holiday and panic shopping hit over the start of the next week. Somebody came in recently and bought over 20 loaves of bread, unapologetically for the express purpose of hoarding. I give them points for honesty, but not much else, particularly when the vendor tried to convince them of the self-evident fact that some of it will go bad before they can use it.

We've gotten 2 for 1 bread deals before and we stick one in the freezer. It never tastes as good though. I can't imagine buying 20 loaves.

Better for them to buy bread flour, yeast and learn how to bake bread. It won't turn out to be nice and fluffy like store kind but still pretty good.

It's only a few items out where I shop - some types of beans, corned beef hash, tp and paper towel etc., bread/butter are all fine. But the combination of holiday sales and the virus will do bad things in time for sure. I'm curious how well we collectively handle it and how much different it is than the spring.

Yes, I do wonder how we and supply chain will fare this second time around.

In Gatlinburg for a few days and for the most part, people are masking up, but up in Rocky Top, masks must be for pussies, because between the gas station and the liquor store and everything in between, not one single mask was seen. Go Tennessee!

i despise holudays anyway so i'm good

Here's an interesting study. Run on mouth wash?

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mouthwash is able to kill <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> within 30 seconds of exposure to it in a laboratory, a scientific study has found <a href="https://t.co/Q1vxfCzRT7">https://t.co/Q1vxfCzRT7</a></p>&mdash; SkyNews (@SkyNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1328585606390308873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Scientists conducted tests in a laboratory mimicking the conditions of a person's nasopharynx and oropharynx passages, using mouthwash brands such as Dentyl.

Reserachers say Venture Life Group, which makes Dentyl, provided information to the study but did not fund it. The same company will fund the next stage of research.


Study definitely not funded by a mouthwash company or dental trade group trying to shield themselves from liability...

SI

Ya know there's gonna be a run on mouthwash now, so get it while you can! :)

Second daughter confirmed positive, just as the first daughter is released from quarantine. She'll be home for Thanksgiving and at this point will be the only one of us who can go to the store. I told the wife I'd rather just get it now and be done with it instead of one of us getting it every 10 days and extending quarantine another 2 weeks.

Ya know there's gonna be a run on mouthwash now, so get it while you can! :)

Can't be long before Trump sells it as his idea.

Can't be long before Trump sells it as his idea.

I can see it now: Trump Mouthwash-maybe defeats COVID, maybe not (but you have to sign an NDA before you can use it)

TBH, I don't know if there has been studies that show in-door dining has contributed to the spread assuming diners are 6ft apart and wear masks in common areas.

Honest question - has there been an uptick of infected flyers? Although everyone is wearing masks, they are stuck in a tube and less than 6ft apart for hours.

By all accounts once you’re on the plane things are not too risky, assuming they’ve been cleaned properly.

Person to person transmission is more of an issue in getting through security, the boarding process, deplaning, baggage collection, etc.

I can see it now: Trump Mouthwash-maybe defeats COVID, maybe not (but you have to sign an NDA before you can use it)

Maybe it has hydroxychloriquine, maybe it doesn't. Maybe it's just cheap moonshine from some conman who swindled Trump into letting him put his name on it. Maybe it's some cheap moonshine from a mediocre conman who thinks Trump is going to pay him. It's all a mystery.

SI

Second daughter confirmed positive, just as the first daughter is released from quarantine. She'll be home for Thanksgiving and at this point will be the only one of us who can go to the store. I told the wife I'd rather just get it now and be done with it instead of one of us getting it every 10 days and extending quarantine another 2 weeks.

Sorry to hear. Good luck to the daughters and family.

By all accounts once you’re on the plane things are not too risky, assuming they’ve been cleaned properly.

Person to person transmission is more of an issue in getting through security, the boarding process, deplaning, baggage collection, etc.
Huh? How is sitting a foot away from multiple strangers for hours straight not more dangerous than the rest of the process (so long as you're doing what you can to maintain 6 feet/wearing a mask).

By all accounts once you’re on the plane things are not too risky, assuming they’ve been cleaned properly.

Person to person transmission is more of an issue in getting through security, the boarding process, deplaning, baggage collection, etc.

I found references to a Harvard & DoD study.

Haven't flown in a while but assume airlines are taking disinfecting seats, table trays etc. very seriously. Even so, I find it hard to believe "little risk" once inside the plane but apparently that's what they are saying.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/flying-covid-19-harvard-study-wellness/index.html
A Harvard University study released Tuesday used computer models to review airflow in airliner cabins, and it says the specialized onboard ventilation systems filter out 99% of airborne viruses. It was funded by airlines, airplane manufacturers and airports, but the Harvard researchers insist this did not impact their findings.

Researchers at the university's T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that even though air is recirculated back into the cabin, it goes through high-quality filters first. And virus droplets from one passenger are unlikely to infect another because of a "downward direction" of airflow, they said.

"This ventilation effectively counters the proximity travelers are subject to during flights," their report says.

The ventilation system, however, is not effective alone. Harvard's researchers described masks as a critical part of keeping travelers healthy and credited the role of disinfection and passengers' self-screening for Covid-19 symptoms.

The "layered approach, with ventilation gate-to-gate, reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission onboard aircraft below that of other routine activities during the pandemic, such as grocery shopping or eating out," the study said.

The Harvard computer modeling was in line with another recent study by the Defense Department that used mannequins outfitted with surgical masks and particle detection equipment on Boeing 767 and 777 jets. It found little risk of transmission thanks to the masks and efficient air ventilation.

More details on the DoD study with United Airlines and IATA. So it may be a little biased but who knows.

I would appreciate more independent studies but accept that my fears may be overblown once a passenger is on a plane.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599
United Airlines says the risk of COVID-19 exposure onboard its aircraft is "virtually non-existent" after a new study finds that when masks are worn there is only a 0.003% chance particles from a passenger can enter the passenger's breathing space who is sitting beside them.

The study, conducted by the Department of Defense in partnership with United Airlines, was published Thursday. They ran 300 tests in a little over six months with a mannequin on a United plane.
:
The mannequin was equipped with an aerosol generator that allowed technicians to reproduce breathing and coughing. Each test released 180 million particles - equivalent to the number of particles that would be produced by thousands of coughs. They studied the way the mannequin's particles moved inside the cabin with a mask on and off.

The tests assumed the flight was completely full with technicians placing sensors in seats, galleys, and the jet bridge to represent other passengers on the plane.

"99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six minutes," United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest told ABC News. "It indicates that being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space, because of the unique configuration inside an aircraft that includes aggressive ventilation, lots of airflow."
:
Among 1.2 billion travelers, IATA found only 44 published cases of potential inflight transmission. Most of those 44 cases occurred in the early days of the pandemic when masks were not required.

Huh? How is sitting a foot away from multiple strangers for hours straight not more dangerous than the rest of the process (so long as you're doing what you can to maintain 6 feet/wearing a mask).

Apparently to do with the circulation & filtration of the air once in the plane

My son is flying home on Saturday. I hope that study is right.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

87-year-old Chuck Grassley is positive.

If not for some non-COVID things that are keeping me home right now, I think I'd be traveling a lot. I'm enjoying the travel stories of people like the guy from the Points Guy blog who are using these times to take unique uncrowded and inexperience travel experiences which, if you can get there, are places safer than the U.S. COVID-wise, and which are offering luxury experiences as reduced expense. If you time it right and find the right deals, there are first-class international points redemption options all over the place.

The wedding was in Oct so everyone was well aware.

I'm sure the couple is sorry and I don't blame them for everything because the other 83 guest should also have known. I get wanting to get married but better choice would have been to keep it small (with more controls) and then have a larger gathering later.

Ohio newlyweds open up about their COVID-19 superspreader wedding (https://nypost.com/2020/11/17/ohio-newlyweds-open-up-about-their-covid-19-superspreader-wedding/)
The Ohio newlyweds whose wedding turned into a coronavirus superspreader event opened up about the ordeal, describing the emotional “toll” of learning about the rise in cases.

Of the 83 attendees at the Halloween wedding of Anthony and Mikayla Bishop in the city of Blue Ash, a total of 32 have since tested positive for coronavirus, including the couple and three of their grandparents, WLWT reported.

“Every single day we’re getting a call. ‘Oh here’s another person. Here’s another person. Here’s another person.’ And it starts to take a toll on you,” Mikayla Bishop said.

Mikayla said most of their wedding guests went maskless for their big day, despite the couple providing face coverings for all attendees.

Just had our county put in a 10 person max on events for the foreseeable future. Still can have the winery open at 50% capacity, but there goes about $100,000 in event revenue over the next three months. :/

Has there been any further guidance on employer billing insurances for required COVID tests? We are up to 2 required tests a week and were just told it was mandatory to give our insurance information to HR so they can start billing them. They also added that they are waiting to bill the two from last week so they need it as soon as possible. Seems.....fraudulent.

The wedding was in Oct so everyone was well aware.

I'm sure the couple is sorry and I don't blame them for everything because the other 83 guest should also have known. [/url]

fuck those selfish assholes. I blame them. Grandma, mom, dad, etc...aren't missing their wedding no matter what.

Should the guests have some personal responsibility? Absolutely, but the way you keep your wedding from being a super spreader event is don't have the wedding.

Just had our county put in a 10 person max on events for the foreseeable future. Still can have the winery open at 50% capacity, but there goes about $100,000 in event revenue over the next three months. :/

I read there were a couple sheriffs that said they were not going to go out of their way to enforce limits on gathering at private residences this holiday season.

It wasn't because they didn't believe covid was real, it was more like it's not their job (constitutionally or oath of office) to limit gatherings in private homes.

fuck those selfish assholes. I blame them. Grandma, mom, dad, etc...aren't missing their wedding no matter what.

Should the guests have some personal responsibility? Absolutely, but the way you keep your wedding from being a super spreader event is don't have the wedding.

Yep, exactly. They put everyone in a very terrible situation.

So after running at lunch yesterday, I started having uncontrollable sneezing for about the next 6 hours as my sinuses became more and more painful. Watery eyes itching, redness teeth were aching from the pressure. Took an allegra, then finally a zytrec, which I never do.

Eventually around 11 the pressure just disappeared, but I got hungry and felt heartburn. I finally dozed off and on until I woke up about 3 and puked like a madman. Same thing happened again around 430. I haven't thrown up in a decade. Took my temp a few times through the night and morning and it was always normal. The "reflux" feeling hasn't gone away and sometimes feels overwhelming, but otherwise I don't feel bad. Sinuses are back to normal.

Of course, since my daughter was exposed a week ago, I got a test this morning and am now waiting on results. This ought to be a fun 2-3 days, especially if I'm not feeling great.

ick not fun Ghost, hope everyone is OK in your family

I've been having bad allergies the last week or two but that's because we've just started getting fall here. Still, had led to some nervous moments.

SI

fuck those selfish assholes. I blame them. Grandma, mom, dad, etc...aren't missing their wedding no matter what.

Should the guests have some personal responsibility? Absolutely, but the way you keep your wedding from being a super spreader event is don't have the wedding.

Having done a bunch of weddings over the last few months at our winery, I can tell you with great certainty that simply having weddings is not going to result in a 'super spreader' event. The real problem is people refusing to wear masks at those events. They're all in a room, getting drunk, and refusing to wear masks. At some point, personal responsibility becomes a major contributing factor. Governments are having to act because people can't be troubled to smack a mask on their face for a few hours.

Same things are happening late nights at local watering holes, hence the reason for the 10:00 closing times on bars/restaurants.

So I am sent notifications when someone employed at the store where I shop for a living tests positive for COVID. That's happened 5-6 times since the spring. Half of those have been in the past two weeks.

This could become problematic.

Well that's just terrifying

Having done a bunch of weddings over the last few months at our winery, I can tell you with great certainty that simply having weddings is not going to result in a 'super spreader' event. The real problem is people refusing to wear masks at those events. They're all in a room, getting drunk, and refusing to wear masks. At some point, personal responsibility becomes a major contributing factor. Governments are having to act because people can't be troubled to smack a mask on their face for a few hours.

Same things are happening late nights at local watering holes, hence the reason for the 10:00 closing times on bars/restaurants.

That is the key point across the board in current times, and seems to be sadly lacking in a great many people in both our countries

I went to a wedding in late October and basically had a panic attack in the parking lot with the way everyone was crammed into such a small space. Had that same wedding happened this weekend, or the one before, I would have passed.

KY taking a series of steps to try to get Covid spread under control.

Somebody explain how this is going to be enforced.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Starting Friday at 5 pm, private gatherings in Kentucky are limited to your family and one other family until December 13th</p>&mdash; Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) <a href="https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1329171923100704769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It won't, just like California's, or the Michigan two-household standard. Some will comply voluntarily, but it's mostly an exercise in appearing to do something.

Nothing the states say is really enforceable.

It won't, just like California's, or the Michigan two-household standard. Some will comply voluntarily, but it's mostly an exercise in appearing to do something.

This goes back to Mizzou’s point

Originally posted by Mizzou B-ball fan
At some point, personal responsibility becomes a major contributing factor

If people are too dumb to realise that this is for their own good and don’t follow the group size mandates, no sympathy if they get sick

Ugh, I've been informed that my 90+ year old grandmother has been diagnosed with covid :(

Sorry to hear. Hope she gets through it.

Having done a bunch of weddings over the last few months at our winery, I can tell you with great certainty that simply having weddings is not going to result in a 'super spreader' event. The real problem is people refusing to wear masks at those events. They're all in a room, getting drunk, and refusing to wear masks. At some point, personal responsibility becomes a major contributing factor. Governments are having to act because people can't be troubled to smack a mask on their face for a few hours.

Same things are happening late nights at local watering holes, hence the reason for the 10:00 closing times on bars/restaurants.People are missing the point if they're primarily focusing on the masks, it's just a little piece of the puzzle. Masks aren't going to help you not infect others if you're not keeping enough distance, starting walking around, or wear flimsy material. The area being ventilated well is important as well. Additionally, putting the same mask on and off and on and off and on and off and on and off takes away from your own protection because you'll increase the number of times you're touching your face and increasing the odds of touching germs on the outside of that re-used mask.

Nothing the states say is really enforceable.

My state has done somewhat more than the states who did nothing, but not much compared to other states. As far as restrictions/lock-downs. A lot of people are calling for more mask mandates, but I really wonder if they would help. Most everyone is wearing masks in the liberal-ish parts of the state (Boise, Sun Valley, Moscow), and almost nobody is wearing them everywhere else. I don't believe any anti-maskers are going to start wearing a mask because the government tells them to at this point. If anything, I think they'd become more defiant, and we'd see more gatherings.

It doesn't seem like any state is really enforcing any mandates on individuals, but some are going after businesses, which are of course easier to regulate.

If people are too dumb to realise that this is for their own good and don’t follow the group size mandates, no sympathy if they get sick

Well, for a lot of people dumb or not isn't the issue; they value other things more highly than whether or not they get sick. The point I was making was about enforcement, not feeling sorry for anybody - ultimately at some point we decide to take the hit that comes from enforcement or we don't. Both approaches are problematic in different ways.

Ah, man. Sorry to hear, Nobodyhere.

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Sorry to hear, Nobody. Wish her the best.

KY taking a series of steps to try to get Covid spread under control.

Somebody explain how this is going to be enforced.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Starting Friday at 5 pm, private gatherings in Kentucky are limited to your family and one other family until December 13th</p>&mdash; Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) <a href="https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1329171923100704769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Aren't they all cousins anyway? I kid, it's just as bad in Illinois, no one listens to the restrictions down state anyway and they're not being enforced. Our local hospital is buckling and there's no slowdown in sight. Until it's them, the locals all maintain it's a big hoax.

I hope your grandma will be okay. Scary for sure.

If nothing else, you have sth to add on when called for a noise complaint for example.

But almost none of any of the broader measures short of an actual "can't leave the house" mandate can be effectively enforced as such. But how is that different from a shit ton of other stuff at normal times ? Knowing it's not allowed is enough for plenty of people, for whome a mere recommendation isn't. There's also plenty of people who actually do make the connection that a mandate/law means that the problem is greater as opposed to it being merely combated with recommendations. That's human.
You don't need everybody to do it to get an effect.

Our local hospital is buckling and there's no slowdown in sight.

This. We only have so many hospital beds and medical professionals to serve the communities. It is not an unlimited resource.

JFC

We need to bring back tar and feathering.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“Tyson Foods ordered employees to report for work while supervisors privately wagered money on the number of workers who would be sickened by the deadly virus.” <a href="https://t.co/xtHVpyCsro">https://t.co/xtHVpyCsro</a></p>&mdash; Tommy Vietor (@TVietor08) <a href="https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1329244603757727746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

If nothing else, you have sth to add on when called for a noise complaint for example.

But almost none of any of the broader measures short of an actual "can't leave the house" mandate can be effectively enforced as such. But how is that different from a shit ton of other stuff at normal times ? Knowing it's not allowed is enough for plenty of people, for whome a mere recommendation isn't. There's also plenty of people who actually do make the connection that a mandate/law means that the problem is greater as opposed to it being merely combated with recommendations. That's human.
You don't need everybody to do it to get an effect.

We've had a mask mandate since August. We've been warned against gatherings since March, including earlier limits on public gatherings and plenty of warnings about Memorial Day/July 4th/Labor Day/Halloween private get-togethers. The idea that now, an unenforceable restriction on private gatherings is going to do anything is laughable. In fact, I'd say that the same people who had no problem ignoring the previous advice will actually go out of their way to ignore the mandate. Within minutes of the governor's press conference, our Congressman issued a hyperbolic statement about destroying businesses, etc.

The restrictions on schools, restaurants, etc., might have an effect. The private gathering one will not - at least not for that portion of the population who has been ignoring the pandemic for 8 months.

You know what's dumb? That the CDC is NOW making statmeents telling people not to travel....instead of oh I don't know...a month ago. Why? because they were forbidden to by Trump and Pets so they could do their pet rallies. Their statements seriously mean nothing. Anyone who is smart won't travel and anyone who is stupid will. Thanksgiving is a joke of a holiday. It's a feed your face fest. Anyone can go to Kroger or costco and pick up a readybaked Turjkey with all the fixins and watch each other chew with their mouth open, drink a bottle of wine, say embarrassing things on zoom. This forced togetherness of the holidays has always been just really dumb....on the otherhand.....it does speak that if a holiday has to fortce you to see your family maybe there's a reason....one of which no one gets along the other being you are lazy and don't go home often enough. But either way doing so now is more of a punishment for all than usual.

Sorry, Crimson. I don't know who hurt you.

I love Thanksgiving. I love being with my extended family, telling stories and laughing. Watching the dog show, and then football while cracking jokes and eating great food. It is my favorite holiday, and it sucks it won't happen this year the same way.

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So apparently today we went back up over 2k for the first time and a number of other countries esp. Italy are doing worse proportionally. That's after the weekend being lower, even accounting for the usual Tuesday late-reporting bump. How long until 2k or worse becomes the new normal once again I wonder?

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yeipFiDUaH0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Sorry, Crimson. I don't know who hurt you.

I love Thanksgiving. I love being with my extended family, telling stories and laughing. Watching the dog show, and then football while cracking jokes and eating great food. It is my favorite holiday, and it sucks it won't happen this year the same way.

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And then, after a full day of awesome food and football, you get to enjoy a 3 day weekend! I love that Thanksgiving gets the "holiday" part of the holiday out of the way at the beginning. 4 days and it's on day 1.

Not like Easter, which is always on a Sunday. Like seriously, what asshole schedules a holiday to always happen on a day you have off from work anyway!?

Just saw on the news 471,000 more deaths expected by March 1st.

Do you have any details on that tarcone? I'd be curious what assumptions it is based on, link to a source if there is one, etc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/pfizer-vaccine-eua-submission/index.html

(CNN)Pfizer and BioNTech said they will submit to the US Food and Drug Administration today for an emergency use authorization for their coronavirus vaccine candidate.

This is the first coronavirus vaccine to seek a regulatory OK in the United States.
The companies said in a statement that their vaccine candidate, known as BNT162b2, will potentially be available for use in high-risk populations in the United States by the middle to end of December.

In a bizarre effort to further coddle the baby president, Geraldo Rivera suggests naming the vaccine after Trump as a "nice gesture."

I was thinking the next major advancement in hemorrhoid therapy, but(t)...

Poland didn't fare badly in the spring, but apparently it's getting very bad there now.

In a bizarre effort to further coddle the baby president, Geraldo Rivera suggests naming the vaccine after Trump as a "nice gesture."

I was thinking the next major advancement in hemorrhoid therapy, but(t)...

I'm not putting anything attached to Trump in my body unless Cohen cuts me a check for 130K

We could just call it the COVID vaccine, same as the flu vaccine or the polio vaccine or ...

no? Ok, it was just a thought.

Trump will call it the China vaccine sooner or later...

The Tremendously Great American Donald Trump Vaccine Against the CHINA Virus or TTGADTVAtCV for short. I mean why not? We already have a TDaP

Do you have any details on that tarcone? I'd be curious what assumptions it is based on, link to a source if there is one, etc.
One of many on this. It is the model the White house has been using.

US COVID-19 deaths could hit 400k by end of February, model finds (https://www.news10.com/news/coronavirus/us-covid-19-deaths-could-hit-400k-by-end-of-february-model-finds/)

One of many on this. It is the model the White house has been using.

US COVID-19 deaths could hit 400k by end of February, model finds (https://www.news10.com/news/coronavirus/us-covid-19-deaths-could-hit-400k-by-end-of-february-model-finds/)

How long has it been since pence declared victory again?

One of many on this. It is the model the White house has been using.

400k total deaths by the end of February wouldn't surprise me. But what tarcone said was 471,000 more deaths, which would bring us to over 700k total.

That would be a horse of a different color.

No, it's the latest model run that shows 471K total deaths by March assuming about 40 states enact mask mandates.

Trump Jr has Covid. Rudy dyes his hair. Water is wet.

Rudy Is in isolation. Andrew tested positive.

Friday evening news dump.

Now it's at least 4 WH aides in addition to Guiliani have tested positive.

They should just call it the Trump virus at this point, because pretty soon his whole family will have had it

Call it TRRD

Trump related respiratory disease.

Trump Related Under-Masked Pneumonia or "Trump Disease" for short.

Look - I'm not good at naming things

SI

I mean Rudy's been displaying symptoms on live TV for seemingly three solid months now, this is a surprise to nobody.

Turns out he was sweating so much because he probably had a 102 degree temp.

I guess we can all stop guessing on whether or not Sweden was doing it right. They are drowning in covid and the official stance is now lock yourself down. Their numbers are off the charts compared to their neighboring countries.

How long has it been since pence declared victory again?

Correct answer?

June 16.

There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’ | The White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/vice-president-mike-pence-op-ed-isnt-coronavirus-second-wave/)

So what is Indiana's policy on funerals nowadays?

The article basically says the impact of Covid has gotten some European countries to think about universal income and some are piloting it.

For purely selfish reasons, I would love to see it happen. I could live on $1,423 a months + savings (until SSN kicks in) if that meant not having to work again. But as a realist and just like how large number in the US has a different take on guns vs ROW, we have a different mentality ... I just don't see it happening universally in the US.

However, I am very interested in the results of the trials/pilots.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/economy/universal-basic-income-europe-pandemic/index.html
In Germany, millions of people applied to join a study of universal basic income that will provide participants with €1,200 ($1,423) a month, while in the United Kingdom, more than 100 lawmakers — including Jardine — are pushing the government to start similar trials.

UBI is inevitable eventually, but I think we're a few decades away yet from it actually happening. At least in the US.

UBI is inevitable eventually, but I think we're a few decades away yet from it actually happening. At least in the US.

I think it's probably a decade or two away from happening but if you told me you were from the future and said it was 2070 and it was just implemented, I wouldn't be shocked (ok, I'd be shocked about the "from the future" part but you get what I mean).

I think more than a time horizon, it's going to take another Depression with automation destroying any recovery. I don't think we're there yet and I don't think this one is going to do it. But I do still think there's a non-zero chance that we get to next year and find the economy goes back into a freefall when government and Fed stimulus is completely removed.

SI

The article basically says the impact of Covid has gotten some European countries to think about universal income and some are piloting it.

For purely selfish reasons, I would love to see it happen. I could live on $1,423 a months + savings (until SSN kicks in) if that meant not having to work again. But as a realist and just like how large number in the US has a different take on guns vs ROW, we have a different mentality ... I just don't see it happening universally in the US.

However, I am very interested in the results of the trials/pilots.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/economy/universal-basic-income-europe-pandemic/index.html

I would love to see it happen too. I would strongly consider retiring.

However I am skeptical of it working right now. How will it affect inflation? How will we pay for it? We're looking at 3 trillion dollars a year for the US minimum. How will it affect the labor force?

With that said, I really hope some country (that's not mine) does give it a full scale run instead of these measly tests that have come in the past. I'd be extremely interested in the results.

I think more than a time horizon, it's going to take another Depression with automation destroying any recovery. I don't think we're there yet and I don't think this one is going to do it. But I do still think there's a non-zero chance that we get to next year and find the economy goes back into a freefall when government and Fed stimulus is completely removed.

I'm not sure it will require quite that much, but it might. I think a lot of it is just the current people dying and new generations replacing them - kind of like how some people go ape over self check-out lanes but younger people are mostly 'why wouldn't I want that?'. At a certain point people don't want to accept new things, but once most of the people left alive are from a generation when this was being talked about seriously at some level ... it gets a lot easier to implement at that stage.

How will we pay for it?


Make billionaires pay more than $750 in taxes for starters.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/covid-vaccine-cdc-should-warn-people-the-side-effects-from-shots-wont-be-walk-in-the-park-.html

This is the Costco I go to.

I'm glad they are enforcing their policy and confronting the non-compliant. Looks like the guy just wanted to be a dick and using the 4th Amendment as an excuse. I was initially concerned about the son but then read he was an adult son. I hope Costco bans him for life.

https://www.forsythnews.com/news/public-safety/man-cited-after-clash-over-wearing-mask-costco/
A video of a local man being placed in handcuffs outside the Costco on Bald Ridge Marina Road on Saturday, Nov. 21 has been making the rounds on social media, but both the local police and the man who was cited are saying there is more to the incident than the video shows.

On Saturday, local resident Cory Wayland was detained, placed into the back of a Cumming Police Department cruiser and cited with disorderly conduct after he and his son were asked to leave the store for his son reportedly not wearing a face mask, which is required by store policy.

While some of the online discourse has claimed the arrest was due to not wearing a mask, Cumming Police Chief David Marsh said Wayland “was cited based on his conduct on the scene and for refusing to leave the store when he was asked to.”

“It didn’t have anything to do with the mask other than that’s what prompted the store to call us,” Marsh told Forsyth County News on Monday. “We certainly don’t arrest people for not wearing masks. That’s not something that we enforce. It didn’t have anything to do with that and it had everything to do with his behavior throughout that investigation and at the Costco.”

i truly do not understand someone choosing that hill to die on.

My wife was talking about being in Target today. They had kids up front asking people if they needed masks as they came in the store. She said people were just ugly to them, cussing them out. One lady made a big yelling ordeal about it and walked out. Classy place we live in.

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Have my first dental cleaning of the year (I'm actually pretty overdue). Possibly need a new filling because I've got some sensitivity.

He's a good guy and its a decent size practice. I'm know he will be diligent on procedures and sanitation.

Just wondering if anyone else gone to the dentist recently and their experience?

FWIW, went to dentist today. All good.

Hand sanitizers everywhere; every other chair blocked off in the front room; everyone wore disposable garb, hair nets, masks and put on a face shield while doing the procedure; gargled with something at the beginning; could see them wiping down chairs; had a bucket for unclean pens (e.g. after I signed a doc) etc.

Unfortunately, back tomorrow morning for the start of a crown (vs filling).

I had a cleaning and subsequent crown put on a couple of months ago. Everything went smoothly.

I don't want to derail the vaccine thread so I figured I use this catch all instead. Who are we calling essential workers when it comes to distribution of the vaccine? Using Florida as an example, are members of the WWE universe going to get the vaccine first as they are classified as essential workers?

FWIW, went to dentist today. All good.

Hand sanitizers everywhere; every other chair blocked off in the front room; everyone wore disposable garb, hair nets, masks and put on a face shield while doing the procedure; gargled with something at the beginning; could see them wiping down chairs; had a bucket for unclean pens (e.g. after I signed a doc) etc.

Unfortunately, back tomorrow morning for the start of a crown (vs filling).

Tis the season for crowns I guess, that's what I had done last. Thankfully don't have to go back until next year now. Glad it went well and that they were following Covid procedures

Read this twitter thread. People are screaming about the Covid hoax while they are in the hospital dying.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is</p>&mdash; Jodi Doering (@JodiDoering) <a href="https://twitter.com/JodiDoering/status/1327771329555292162?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Another take.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-silent-nurses-viral-patients-denying-coronavirus-deathbed-falls-apart
The New York-based Zweig – who is an author and columnist who has written for The Atlantic, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among other outlets – examined Doering’s claim, contacting other hospitals in the same area of South Dakota but nobody else seemed to have the same experience as the nurse who appeared on CNN.

The National Review also probed Doering’s story and didn’t find any other nurses in the area who witnessed the things she claimed.

I can believe maybe an incident but harder to believe multiple incidents. I may be wrong, but thinking she exaggerated for her 15 minutes of fame.

I don't want to derail the vaccine thread so I figured I use this catch all instead. Who are we calling essential workers when it comes to distribution of the vaccine? Using Florida as an example, are members of the WWE universe going to get the vaccine first as they are classified as essential workers?

Apparently Whole Foods, where my girlfriend works, has an early-distribution plan for its workers that they're setting up now. They're at least expecting to be close to the front of the line. I wonder if household members count, or maybe I get get an early one if I finally get hitched.

I have no idea how that will all work in practicality though. I think it's up to the state governments, who probably make arrangements with hospitals and schools and grocery stores, etc, to get to distribute to them first, I guess through a hospital clinic.

Apparently Whole Foods has an early-distribution plan for its workers that they're setting up now. They're at least expecting to be close to the front of the line. I wonder if household members count, or maybe I get get an early one if I finally get hitched.

I have no idea how that will all work in practicality though. I think it's up to the state governments, who probably make arrangements with hospitals and schools and grocery stores, etc, to get to distribute to them first, I guess through a hospital clinic.

See this is where the arguments from earlier this summer makes things tricky. Well tricky is a relative term given what we will and will not remember in two months. Let's take schools. The reason it was fine to open up schools is that there was a small chance of the kids passing it around to each other and an even smaller chance of them getting really sick from it and the teachers just had to suck it up. Shouldn't that the last place we should be worry about vaccinating? That does not go into the stuff whomario talked about the different standards for kids vaccinations. On the other hand, it makes sense that Whole Foods is setting up their program. We need to keep the workforce going to keep the country from shutting down. They should get the vaccine first, no?

The state legislature better get going with their protect businesses from COIVD laws because the lawsuits are a-coming.

A Publix employee died from COVID-19. Now his family is suing over his death. (https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2020/11/23/a-publix-employee-died-from-covid-19-now-his-family-is-suing-over-his-death/)

The state legislature better get going with their protect businesses from COIVD laws because the lawsuits are a-coming.

A Publix employee died from COVID-19. Now his family is suing over his death. (https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2020/11/23/a-publix-employee-died-from-covid-19-now-his-family-is-suing-over-his-death/)

F McConnell and his liability shield. We want to pretend this is all about "personal responsibility" when we're not putting any institutional responsibility behind restrictions. It's all the fault of individuals and not the people in charge of running these larger systems.

I mean just look at the Costco incident above. Costco is sortof trying but I'm sure it's like most places - they're not going to turn away a customer not wearing a mask right. They're just putting lip service to it - no one's getting fired for not enforcing the policy. And the police said "we aren't going to enforce this" so it's not like a company is going to do it. And, of course, at the federal level, we've seen little helpful.

SI

It pretty clearly falls under workers compensation laws. Not sure why additional protections are needed for businesses.

It pretty clearly falls under workers compensation laws. Not sure why additional protections are needed for businesses.

The lawyers on the board can correct me if I am wrong but it seem pretty similar to the concussion cases in football. How do we know he got the virus in Publix as opposed to say while he was getting a haircut or working out in the gym?

Lawsuits often aren't about winning but trying to get a Nuisance Fee paid out. That's the real fear for small business (like mine). I shut my office down yesterday and am making everyone *basically work remotely for this very reason. While I trust my agents wholeheartedly, if one of them gets sick and god forbid gets really really sick or dies, I'm afraid of the lawsuits that will be lobbed my way. *Cancelling the Xmas party too.

These people are SO stupid it actually hurts. Although in this case, this dude isn't stupid, but he knows the people he's speaking to are.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Have you noticed that no Democratic leader has suffered Covid-19 but Republicans leaders have had more than their fair share?<br><br>Or is it just me?<br><br>Or is Covid-19 partisan? <a href="https://t.co/PrLkkb6HQQ">pic.twitter.com/PrLkkb6HQQ</a></p>&mdash; Lin Wood (@LLinWood) <a href="https://twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1331500201723486209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Did you ever notice that the people playing Russian roulette are much more likely to get shot than those who don't?

Did you ever notice that the people playing Russian roulette are much more likely to get shot than those who don't?

Yeah, but at least they are out there living and defending their freedom rather than letting themselves be forced to do the smart thing !

I mean, i just learned from like the 5th reply that democrats work from home AND LIKE IT ! The Bastards !

The replies are just mindblowing, perfect smorgasbord of every Covid19 conspiracy theory and 'skepticism' out there. If you told them they need to follow guidance for 3 days to kill off the Pandemic, they would still waste all 3 days arguing about how it isn't actually a Problem and none of the guidances do anything.

Pfizer stays the first vaccinations in America will occur as early as December 11, or at worst the next week. Even though that initial roll-out is limited, I think our perspective on all of this is going to be so much more hopeful when millions of Americans will be vaccinated every month going forward.

Walked by maskless lady in target.
She was talking with another maskless commiserating that she was accosted in costco.
That's because you're a bitch.

Getting sick during a pandemic is a bit scary. My oldest came home from his job at the the College on Monday with a hacking cough and was just not feeling good. We kept pegging him with questions about his other symptoms, and watched him all week. By all appearances it looked like he had a shitty cold. No fever any more than a mid 99.

Then I got sick. But I always get sick this time of year. I have nearly chronic upper respiratory that frequently devolves into Bronchitis and sometimes Pneumonia. Exact same shallow hacking cough started Wednesday. Yesterday I felt like shit. Made it most of the day, no temp above 99.6 and ended up in bed early. Came around a bit later, but still not great. Sometime last night 'something' broke, because my bed was a mess because I was sweating all over. Woke up today feeling a lot better, except as expected, the cough is working its way down my lungs. Trying to keep it as clean as possible, but the fear that it's something more is always in the back of my mind. So far, it feels mostly normal, but that it could have been something else was nerve wracking. I've been waiting all this time to go back to training and now I'm supposed to go next week and spend 12 hours in a simulator. If I've got this cough, ain't no way that's happening. Nobody will want that. Totally frustrating.

Did you get tested for covid?

No, the system doesn't seem to be set up for any short notice tests. Scheduled yes, but they are almost 2 weeks out testing last time I looked and the symptoms don't seem bad enough to really warrant going to the dr.

I guess I'm lazy. There are quite a few places that take walk up appointments. We've talked about it, but still think it's all cold, not covid. No testing necessary.

They just started to offer quick antibody tests at the local supermarket pharmacies around here, and I am debating getting one, purely out of curiosity.

No, the system doesn't seem to be set up for any short notice tests. Scheduled yes, but they are almost 2 weeks out testing last time I looked and the symptoms don't seem bad enough to really warrant going to the dr.

I guess I'm lazy. There are quite a few places that take walk up appointments. We've talked about it, but still think it's all cold, not covid. No testing necessary.

Shrug

I drove up and did a test through my driver's side window and had the results in a few hours. Took multiple tests while my wife and son had it and luckily all of mine were negative. Could one be wrong? Sure, but that's why in statistics you do a bunch of tests and throw out the anomalies.

I was being passive/aggressive towards a couple people today. We have a mask mandate in our county and they had their masks below their nose. So I was making comments and turning my head.

Then one old lady responded she had emphysema. As she was buying her cigarettes, I had to make a comment bout health care costs.

Yes, I was being an asshole today. It has been awhile since I have been.

As I left the station, I got a loud " SUCK MY DICK"

It was a great visit to the gas station

Wow.

My daughter's best friend in elementary school lost her grandmother to COVID today.

tarcone is just a commie loving sheep.

tarcone is just a commie loving sheep. ... who apparently visits seedy gas stations.

I love how the media is treating the vaccine like its a celebrity, or a member of the royal family.

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Arrives at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport: Source – NBC Chicago (https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CHBrand)

I love how the media is treating the vaccine like its a celebrity, or a member of the royal family.

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Arrives at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport: Source – NBC Chicago (https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CHBrand)

Pretty plane.

... who apparently visits seedy gas stations.

Or, as we say in rural Indiana, just "gas stations"...

I'm okay with Trump saying states get to make the decision and allocation is based on states' population. Arguably it would be better on a Federal level but I lean towards a state would be better to make the "hard" decisions assuming vaccines are available proportionately by population and some sort of "guidance" is given on the Federal level.

In states with high illegal population, no idea if they would be counted in the proportional allocation but interesting dilemma. If illegal status is not taken into account, every illegal getting a shot early means one less US citizen/PR getting a shot. With a limited supply early on, this question has heightened importance. My guess is ethicists would say do not consider whether a person is illegal or not.

FWIW, I did consider if this was better in the Trump thread; but decided better here as the distribution & prioritization of vaccines is really the more important focus.

Trump administration leaves states to grapple with how to distribute scarce vaccines - POLITICO (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/30/trump-states-handle-vaccines-440798)
The Trump administration is shunting to the states hard decisions about which Americans will get the limited early supplies of coronavirus vaccines — setting up a confusing patchwork of distribution plans that could create unequal access to the life-saving shots.

Federal and state officials agree that the nation’s 21 million health care workers should be first in line. But there is no consensus about how to balance the needs of other high-risk groups, including the 53 million adults aged 65 or older, 87 million essential workers and more than 100 million people with medical conditions that increase their vulnerability to the virus.

The Trump administration has told states that they have ultimate authority for determining who gets vaccinated first. It has also decided to allocate scarce early doses based on states’ total populations, forcing hard choices in states with a greater proportion of residents at high risk
:
"I don’t expect the states to make uniform decisions,” he told POLITICO. “Some may prefer long-term care facilities or the elderly, while others may prioritize their health care workers. It would be wrong to immunize 18-year-olds first. I hope no one does that. But otherwise it’s shades of gray.”

I'd prefer a federal response but with the ability of a state to petition for a change. The big problem with state level decisions is that people don't stay within state boundaries.

I'd prefer a federal response but with the ability of a state to petition for a change. The big problem with state level decisions is that people don't stay within state boundaries.
Probably 6-in-one. Both have positives and negatives. I would hope the guideline regardless would be hospital works, front-line workers, and then essential workers.

I love how the media is treating the vaccine like its a celebrity, or a member of the royal family.

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Arrives at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport: Source – NBC Chicago (https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CHBrand)

PPE and Ventilators got the same treatment in the spring (complete with staged photoops), i'm hardly surprised. Or remember that hospital ship ?

I'd prefer a federal response but with the ability of a state to petition for a change. The big problem with state level decisions is that people don't stay within state boundaries.

I prefer a response that keeps Trump away from any decision-making.

I prefer a response that keeps Trump away from any decision-making.

That is a good point for it to be a state's call.

So an analysis of blood donations from last December show some Americans had antibodies specific to this particular Coronavirus strain, which would imply that some people had it prior to then.

Additionally, a new study in Italy that went through samples from a specific cancer trial showed similar things in patients from September 2019.

No idea what to make if it, though.

Article essentially says CDC will set some guidelines but states can deviate if they want to.

Apparently they haven't quick worked out the order after the initial health care workers and residents of nursing homes. TBH, I'm not sure I believe that, you would think they have the order figured out by now.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/health/covid-vaccine-cdc-acip-meeting/index.html

Vaccinations are expected to begin in mid- to late December. The panel is set Tuesday to vote on whether the first group to be vaccinated should be health care workers and residents of nursing homes.
:
States do not have to abide by ACIP's recommendations, and instead can come up with their own frameworks for vaccine prioritization, according to the CDC spokesperson. However, historically, states have abided by ACIP's recommendations.

"I don't see states deviating from the ACIP guidance," Hannan said.

China is going to be a vaccine supplier to many developing countries. The lack of domestic coronavirus cases allows them to help out other countries in need. A "health" silk road initiative.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/asia/china-coronavirus-vaccine-diplomacy-intl-hnk/index.html
China's global vaccine campaign is in stark contrast to the Trump administration's "America first" approach, which focuses on vaccinating its own citizens before those elsewhere.

"So far we haven't heard the US saying or suggesting they're gonna earmark a percentage of their vaccine to support poor countries. So that puts China in an even better situation to use the vaccine to serve its foreign policy objective," Huang said.

In October, China joined a World Health Organization-backed global initiative to ensure the rapid and equitable distribution of Covid-19 vaccines to rich and poor countries alike.

The project, known as COVAX, is designed to discourage governments from hoarding coronavirus vaccines and instead focus on vaccinating high-risk groups in every country. But it was shunned by the United States, partly because President Donald Trump did not want to work with the WHO, leaving a global public health leadership vacuum for China to fill.

From early on, Chinese leaders have repeatedly stressed that China's vaccines are for sharing, especially with the developing world.

However, they haven't announced any efficacy %. This may be they just aren't as far along as the US-European vaccines, or it may not be as effective and they want to hide that info. Seems to me the WHO would ask for transparency (at the appropriate time).

Then there's the question of efficacy. Last month, Pfizer and Moderna announced that early results showed their vaccines to be over 90% effective, while another candidate produced jointly by Oxford University and AstraZeneca had an average efficacy of 70%. So far, none of the Chinese vaccine candidates have announced any preliminary efficacy results, though company executives have repeatedly stressed their safety, insisting no serious adverse effect has been observed in vaccinated volunteers.

I would certainly take a US-European vaccine over a Chinese vaccines. But if I didn't have a choice, I would wait a month or two and take the Chinese vaccine.

And we have to quarantine again. One of the docs my wife supervised this AM started to feel bad around lunch and got a positive rapid test. Technically only my wife has to quarantine, but my work said I should also stay away. And the doctor's daughter is my daughter's best friend at school and likely hung out at school today. So fun times all around.

China is going to be a vaccine supplier to many developing countries. The lack of domestic coronavirus cases allows them to help out other countries in need. A "health" silk road initiative.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/asia/china-coronavirus-vaccine-diplomacy-intl-hnk/index.html


However, they haven't announced any efficacy %. This may be they just aren't as far along as the US-European vaccines, or it may not be as effective and they want to hide that info. Seems to me the WHO would ask for transparency (at the appropriate time).



I would certainly take a US-European vaccine over a Chinese vaccines. But if I didn't have a choice, I would wait a month or two and take the Chinese vaccine.

CNN kinda mixes up two different things, one being chines companies offering their vaccines to developing countries and the other being COVAX (which Trumpistan unsurprisingly did not join)

COVAX isn't about donating vaccine doses, but money to use to buy available doses as they become available and then distribute evenly. Richer countries than pay for those, poorer ones are subsidized. A sorta 'buyers collective'.

It was always inevitable that the EU and US make seperate deals and then take the first available vaccines. As did Canada, who already said they will donate surplus doses, while Germany among others supports it financially but waive their allotment due to havin enough via Pfizer/Moderna.
But this way at least the 2nd crop will be distributed evenly. And considering 1 of 2 frontrunners is very problematic to deliver and store in poorer regions, it's a good thing that option No3 (Astrazeneca) is both easier to store and has already agreed to sell at cheap rates (2,50 per dose) and a couple more are on track for a mid 2021 rollout iirc.

From what I can tell, yesterday looks like the highest single day for deaths in the US since Covid began. ~2800-+3000 depending on where you look.

And by the highest number of people in hospital at any time so far, and the number in intensive care is also at an all time high...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55170329

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are iPad stations being prepared for virtual ICU end of life visits by a palliative care doc I know. Jesus. <a href="https://t.co/lIgbg0FhaL">pic.twitter.com/lIgbg0FhaL</a></p>&mdash; i cant drive, n95 (@roto_tudor) <a href="https://twitter.com/roto_tudor/status/1334534101265682434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

dola:

Stay safe, y'all.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are iPad stations being prepared for virtual ICU end of life visits by a palliative care doc I know. Jesus. <a href="https://t.co/lIgbg0FhaL">pic.twitter.com/lIgbg0FhaL</a></p>&mdash; i cant drive, n95 (@roto_tudor) <a href="https://twitter.com/roto_tudor/status/1334534101265682434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Absolutely heartbreaking.

And this job must be pretty sucky also.

Nurse sets up virtual visit for COVID-19 patient: video (https://nypost.com/2020/12/04/nurse-sets-up-virtual-visit-for-covid-19-patient-video/)

https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS_USA.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1024

The vote for health care workers and nursing home patients was not unanimous. Article below provided some insight. I actually did not know the vaccines have not been tested (or at least a good sample) of the "frail elderly".

I guess my question is, why hasn't it been tested? I have to believe there would be some that will volunteer?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/health/coronavirus-vaccine-acip-nursing-homes-question/index.html
The Covid-19 vaccines have not been tested in the frail elderly, many of whom are residents of long-term care facilities.

"Since they haven't been studied in people in those populations, we don't know how well the vaccine will work for them. We know that most vaccines don't work nearly as well in a frail elderly person as they would in someone who is fit and vigorous, even if they happen to be the same age," Moore said.
:
:
"One of the things we want to make sure people understand is that they should not be unnecessarily alarmed if there are reports, once we start vaccinating, of someone or multiple people dying within a day or two of their vaccination who are residents of a long-term care facility. That would be something we would expect, as a normal occurrence, because people die frequently in nursing homes."

Rampant speculation: I'm guessing the drug manufacturers didn't want to get too many old patients in the trial in the event that they died or had complications so as to slow down vaccine testing and production.

SI

I would think consent could be a problem as well.

This is the Costco I go to.

I'm glad they are enforcing their policy and confronting the non-compliant. Looks like the guy just wanted to be a dick and using the 4th Amendment as an excuse. I was initially concerned about the son but then read he was an adult son. I hope Costco bans him for life.

https://www.forsythnews.com/news/public-safety/man-cited-after-clash-over-wearing-mask-costco/

Went to this Costco this morning. Saw the greeter and also an armed policeman at the front entrance.

Getting sick during a pandemic is a bit scary. My oldest came home from his job at the the College on Monday with a hacking cough and was just not feeling good. We kept pegging him with questions about his other symptoms, and watched him all week. By all appearances it looked like he had a shitty cold. No fever any more than a mid 99.

Then I got sick. But I always get sick this time of year. I have nearly chronic upper respiratory that frequently devolves into Bronchitis and sometimes Pneumonia. Exact same shallow hacking cough started Wednesday. Yesterday I felt like shit. Made it most of the day, no temp above 99.6 and ended up in bed early. Came around a bit later, but still not great. Sometime last night 'something' broke, because my bed was a mess because I was sweating all over. Woke up today feeling a lot better, except as expected, the cough is working its way down my lungs. Trying to keep it as clean as possible, but the fear that it's something more is always in the back of my mind. So far, it feels mostly normal, but that it could have been something else was nerve wracking. I've been waiting all this time to go back to training and now I'm supposed to go next week and spend 12 hours in a simulator. If I've got this cough, ain't no way that's happening. Nobody will want that. Totally frustrating.

Got tested Thursday, got a positive result today. My oldest and youngest sons were both positive as well. The Mrs is assumed positive, her symptoms are identical to mine, and the middle son currently has no symptoms, despite being exposed probably a thousand times by now.

Got tested Thursday, got a positive result today. My oldest and youngest sons were both positive as well. The Mrs is assumed positive, her symptoms are identical to mine, and the middle son currently has no symptoms, despite being exposed probably a thousand times by now.

Sorry to hear that. Speedy recovery to everyone.

Take care Pilot.

Good luck PM

Best wishes to you & family.

Praying for you and your family, Pilotman.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I just saw that Karl Anthony Towns has lost seven family members to COVID including his other and uncle.

We went to pickup at REI and decided to drop by a favorite restaurant. We drove there, went in to order, and waited out side.

I spoke with the proprietor and asked he was doing. He said pretty bad. I asked if carryout business was pretty good and he said they did get a lot of orders but the 3rd party online ordering systems took 30% of the bill so he wasn't making money.

Not sure if I misunderstood but the 30% sounds really high to me.

The husband of my wife's friend had to get COVID tested yesterday because a coworker on his construction site tested positive on Friday. My wife backed out of plans to go over to their house yesterday, but another friend that's already had COVID decided to go anyway. The (flawed) thinking was that since she's already had COVID she's safe. Oh btw she works the front desk at one of the departments in the hospital I work at and her boss told her she has to stay home pending his test results and will have to quarantine for 2 weeks if his test is positive. She's throwing a fit because she's out of vacation and sick leave and doesn't think it's fair since she's already had it.

My wife is trying to explain to the friend of hers how stupid it was to have her over and how making her quarantine in the event of a positive test is 100% the correct decision. Her friend will not acknowledge that it was a stupid decision on their part and thinks the quarantine would be ridiculous.

This is 2 days after my wife and I had an argument over her going over to her house to begin with because I didn't think they took COVID very seriously. So on top of their stupidity my wife is incredibly frustrated with the timing of this.

COVID continues to highlight the gaps in critical thinking among different people and the general selfishness of others.

Very sorry to hear that PM.. :( Thinking of your family and hoping for a quick and full recovery

Ugh, sorry PM. Get better soon!

The husband of my wife's friend had to get COVID tested yesterday because a coworker on his construction site tested positive on Friday. My wife backed out of plans to go over to their house yesterday, but another friend that's already had COVID decided to go anyway. The (flawed) thinking was that since she's already had COVID she's safe. Oh btw she works the front desk at one of the departments in the hospital I work at and her boss told her she has to stay home pending his test results and will have to quarantine for 2 weeks if his test is positive. She's throwing a fit because she's out of vacation and sick leave and doesn't think it's fair since she's already had it.

My wife is trying to explain to the friend of hers how stupid it was to have her over and how making her quarantine in the event of a positive test is 100% the correct decision. Her friend will not acknowledge that it was a stupid decision on their part and thinks the quarantine would be ridiculous.

This is 2 days after my wife and I had an argument over her going over to her house to begin with because I didn't think they took COVID very seriously. So on top of their stupidity my wife is incredibly frustrated with the timing of this.

COVID continues to highlight the gaps in critical thinking among different people and the general selfishness of others.

Too many people seem to think it's a one and done thing even though we have no evidence of this. It seems just as likely that this will be a flu like thing where we will have to get a shot every year.

Too many people seem to think it's a one and done thing even though we have no evidence of this. It seems just as likely that this will be a flu like thing where we will have to get a shot every year.

My wife has been telling her we still don't know much about how COVID spreads, how immunity works, how different strains affect immunity, ect. It's going nowhere.

It’s definitely not one and done - the cyclist Fernando Gaviria has had it twice for one.

Too many people seem to think it's a one and done thing even though we have no evidence of this. It seems just as likely that this will be a flu like thing where we will have to get a shot every year.

Yeah, I'm delaying telling my parents we'll come down the day after Christmas when my sisters and their kids are there, but it has to be outside and everyone keep to their family. Otherwise they can just come up whenever and we'll do Christmas on the porch.

I've been sick twice in the past 4 weeks, each time with different symptoms that mirror COVID symptoms. Both times I've tested negative and recuperated fine. My wife is quarantined in another room because she's a close contact at her work. Feeling sick is bad enough, waiting for a test for a potentially deadly disease to come back negative makes it even worse. I'm not in the mood to deal with that if I can avoid it. And we haven't told them my wife is getting a pacemaker the first week of January, so her getting COVID could be a disaster.

And my family is one who takes COVID seriously, but don't seem to grasp why it matters with family, as though family has some extra protective layer.

So I just sent the text and it's going about as well as I expected.

It seems just as likely that this will be a flu like thing where we will have to get a shot every year.

It actually doesn't :) Just because you can't know for a fact if it's A or B does not mean there aren't different propabilities for both options. And right now pretty much all of the Data from the lab seems to point towards decently long immunity from both natural infection and looked at vaccines for the vast majority of people. Of course there's no 100% guarantee and no one can put an exact timeframe on things, but comparing data over the last X months experts seem reasonably confident.

And none of the specific reasons why flu shots are anually apply to SarsCov2/these vaccines (the flu is in essence caused by multiple viruses where every year different ones are most prevalent and they all change at a pretty good clip, whereas SarsCov2 changes muuuuuch less frequently or severely and is most definitely the single cause for Covid19).
It's a similar situation to when people said it was just as likely a vaccine would take years or never happen. There was a chance for that, but the available data made at least a decently effective vaccine decently soon more likely than not. (Often people then pointed towards HIV, but here again the issues for an HIV vaccine are very specific, not least of which is the fact the body can't fight the infection so telling it how to do so is rather more complicated ...)

It's prudent to stay vigilant and exercise caution (especially since there are always exceptions), but overall one can be optimistic for the big picture in this instance.

Too many people seem to think it's a one and done thing even though we have no evidence of this. It seems just as likely that this will be a flu like thing where we will have to get a shot every year.
It’s definitely not one and done - the cyclist Fernando Gaviria has had it twice for one.
With vaccines rolling out I'd love more info in this vein... I've heard of different Covid-19 strains, but it still seems very specific from a disease fighting standpoint compared to "the flu" or "the cold". F.e. did Gaviria get different strains? Did he just get a false positive like Saban?

I don't think the other coronavirii ever mutated to the point they risked becoming an annual issue, why would this be the exception?

Looking at worldometers and it showed 173K new infections on Sat (so prob undercounted) with 1,076 deaths.

CA is #1 with 28K new infections. Next is TX at #2 with 9.4K, then FL 8.4K, NY 8.1K, PA 7.7K

(Good news for GA at #28 with "only" 2K).

WTF happened in CA?

And my family is one who takes COVID seriously, but don't seem to grasp why it matters with family, as though family has some extra protective layer.

I've seen this as well. It's insane. Just because it's family doesn't mean they are telling the 100% truth about how careful they are, but folks seem to think oh they won't lie. Or it'll be ok for some reason. Yeah people miss their family, but these sort of excuses are just masking selfishness.

I don't think the other coronavirii ever mutated to the point they risked becoming an annual issue, why would this be the exception?

I don't think any of them were as widespread either though were they?

I'm in between the two camps on this. I don't think you go from this being a global pandemic to disappearing or anything close to that next year, but I also don't think you necessarily have it be as ubiquitous as the flu in the future either. I think it'll be around with reduced effect for at least a couple of years simply due to how much of it is out there, some people can't or won't get vaccinated, etc.

With vaccines rolling out I'd love more info in this vein... I've heard of different Covid-19 strains, but it still seems very specific from a disease fighting standpoint compared to "the flu" or "the cold". F.e. did Gaviria get different strains? Did he just get a false positive like Saban?

I don't think the other coronavirii ever mutated to the point they risked becoming an annual issue, why would this be the exception?

The common cold Coronavirii (that just looks weird ...) actually are sth you can presumably catch often (though it's not exactly been intenively studied and proven on a population level), though not due to mutations, but SARS and MERS not. (That's sth lab work can tell you pretty definitely). And this one is definitely very much closer to the latter group than the former in terms of it's RNA.

At some point one has to accept that there are rules to this but that every rule has exceptions. Just like vaccines or medication not always doing the job they usually-almost always do, the same goes for the immune system. Just because reinfections happen once in a blue moon it does not at all mean that it will happen a lot or that immunity is fleeting. Only means it can happen, same as it can happen with pretty much everything else.

There are plenty of instances btw where the vaccine gives better immunity than the infection. Like the Tetanus shot, the HiB virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae (the 'other' big cause for pneumonia deaths prior to covid), HPV Virus (causing cervical cancer) and Varicella (Chickenpox/Shingles).

And in general, the advantage of a vaccine is that it is designed to create a certain 'baseline' response with lot less randomness. The flu vaccine really is a major outlier in terms of it's lack of effectiveness and longevity among vaccines on the market (plenty more don't get to the market because they aren't effective enough). It really is a flu-problem, not a vaccine-problem.

Toward superhuman SARS-CoV-2 immunity? | Nature Medicine (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01180-x)

My wife tested positive; I assume I am as well.

This happened on my birthday and four days before we were to depart to Disney.

My mother is livid that we are being consumed by "fear" by not partaking.

So they are down there (my daughter and her girlfriend are in their 20s tested positive about 2 weeks ago and bolted when we told them the result, my mom and dad, and my brother, sister in law and their two girls), but we're the bad guys for not coming along.

The worst day was with multiple aches and pains, terrible headache, dry cough, but then I would get a runny nose and post nasal drip. Dizziness and lethargy.

But we would've been fine in Disney:banghead:

Insult to injury, they left us the family dog to watch, I had to walk him in heavy downpours, wind and freezing temperatures. Great for my condition.

My oldest son (8) is fine, no symptoms. The youngest (4) had a fever and was down for about 2 days before bouncing back.

My wife is still tired (wears a mask indoors) and still can't smell or taste.

All in all, shitty and then we'll have the tension of Christmas right down the corner.

Fun times.

Ugh, that sucks Qwikshot

Sorry you are feeling that way.

Ditto.

Sorry Qwik and PM - keeping you guys in my thoughts.

A few weeks ago (about two weeks before Thanksgiving), Jenn and I decided to pull back from my family. My sister, brother, and father all work in the car business, and cannot work remotely, so they have some exposure risk every day. Not only that, sister and brother had made some...questionable social distancing decisions prior to us pulling back. There has been some difficult discussions - particularly with my brother - about our decision to stay away, especially since the remainder of them are still getting together.

Thursday, one of my dad's sales managers tested positive for COVID, the same day his work had a mini "Holiday Party" indoors at the dealership. They were supposedly all masked up, but there was food, so questionable how effective the masks were.

My dad found out about the positive test for his coworker yesterday; not sure when, but he will be tested this week. He's healthy as an ox, but he is overweight and smokes. I'm honestly more concerned for my mother, who has skin cancer and various other chronic medical maladies. I can't imagine there is any way they could quarantine my dad within the same house, so if he's gotten it...

...lots of stuff...

Toward superhuman SARS-CoV-2 immunity? | Nature Medicine (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01180-x)

I'm going to have to see if I can track it down, but I was reading something online from an immunologist who mentioned studies are showing COVID immunity after infection is extremely variable, but averages 70-90 days, with an expected high-end immunity of up to 1-2 years (based upon antibody count decay, I think? No idea how they got that kind of info).

My wife tested positive; I assume I am as well.

This happened on my birthday and four days before we were to depart to Disney.

My mother is livid that we are being consumed by "fear" by not partaking.

So they are down there (my daughter and her girlfriend are in their 20s tested positive about 2 weeks ago and bolted when we told them the result, my mom and dad, and my brother, sister in law and their two girls), but we're the bad guys for not coming along.

The worst day was with multiple aches and pains, terrible headache, dry cough, but then I would get a runny nose and post nasal drip. Dizziness and lethargy.

But we would've been fine in Disney:banghead:

Insult to injury, they left us the family dog to watch, I had to walk him in heavy downpours, wind and freezing temperatures. Great for my condition.

My oldest son (8) is fine, no symptoms. The youngest (4) had a fever and was down for about 2 days before bouncing back.

My wife is still tired (wears a mask indoors) and still can't smell or taste.

All in all, shitty and then we'll have the tension of Christmas right down the corner.

Fun times.

That sucks. As someone who got a virus before our last day at disney 2 years ago, trudging across a park to meet my wife and kid for dinner was a nightmare. I felt like a zombie getting from bed to the other side of epcot. They were a little upset at first, but by the end of the day had a blast since after seeing how rough dinner was for me.

The 8 hour ride home was great.

Man Qwik, sorry to hear members of your family are sick and angry at how other members of your family are reacting to it. :( Hope you all get a complete recovery and the rest of your family finds their compassion again.

That sucks. As someone who got a virus before our last day at disney 2 years ago, trudging across a park to meet my wife and kid for dinner was a nightmare. I felt like a zombie getting from bed to the other side of epcot. They were a little upset at first, but by the end of the day had a blast since after seeing how rough dinner was for me.

The 8 hour ride home was great.

Yeah, my mother laid on the guilt. I think I posted in the Cancer Sucks thread that my father has had his cancer return, so they paid for everyone to go to Disney.

So she was constantly reminding me that this could be his last trip. He seems healthy all things considered. So we were caught with being exposed, becoming sick and potentially exposing everyone on the trip down, or being cowards for not going.

I will tell you this much, I'm glad we stayed home. Yes the illness sucked, but we've been able to collect our thoughts and just breathe (though it hurt for four days doing so).

My sons are 4 and 8, they really don't understand the concept of Disney, so they don't know what they are missing.

I tried to explain to my mom we would help offset any lost costs, they went anyway. We felt terrible but it was the right call.

She was mad at me for downplaying the trip, but she's downplaying the risks. I knew I was going to get sick once my wife was confirmed on exposure. Plus who knows how we would've affected the family once down in Florida. It could've been a nightmare.

I tried explaining to her that the boys loved their Pop Pop and Nona, and that's what is important, not the trip to Disney which may be a fuzzy memory in a few years. I would hate they missed out on the trip, but I would hate more if my family got really sick because we ignored the precautions.

I'm not mad but disappointed in my oldest, she and her girlfriend waitress and they brought it in the house. They didn't take the precautions seriously, knowing how big this trip was. They got sick and we cared for them, but when we found out about this exposure they left us on our own to handle it (I get it, they're teens and they didn't want to get sick again or expose my parents to the virus); they wanted to go to Disney.

It's just a raw deal. We are doing are best for the boys who are excited for Christmas, trying to decorate when we feel okay.

The sad part is my wife's company and my company, and our friends have all been supportive.

It's my mother who's been mad and upset over our decision; my father all things considered took it well and accepted it - though I'm sure when he returns I may get a lecture.

Remember, I'm a 45 year old guy...but it is what it is.

I try to keep the peace, and truthfully I am glad of the decision my wife and I made on this.

On the other side of this, my wife and I have talked about how strongly we don't want the guilt of potentially being the ones that, you know, kill our parents. That's a very real fear for us.

SI

On the other side of this, my wife and I have talked about how strongly we don't want the guilt of potentially being the ones that, you know, kill our parents. That's a very real fear for us.

SI

This. I'm in a position where this might be my Mom's last holiday season, but I certainly don't want to do anything to ensure she doesn't make it to 2021.

It really is insane how our parents look at this. We have stayed in contact with my wifes parents. They have been pretty serious about it. she lets my 7 year old come over there and hang out all the time, they only live about 3 minutes away. She was there the other day and found out she let one of my daughters friends come over an play inside all day. Come to find out today same friends parents went to a dinner party with 5 couples the other night. My MIL is super high risk having had a heart transplant 11 years ago.

My father is 90 and has already told my sister she isn't welcome there on Xmas. She works and goes to bars, as does her live in boyfriend, 2 sons, and a guy who rents a room from her. We are welcome since we have taken things far more seriously. My sister already resents me and my wife, I am there favorite, blah blah blah, so you can imagine how this will go.

There's a lot of weird cognitive dissonance throughout this and my wife and I were talking about this again at lunch today using Qwik's post at a jumping off point.

We had my parents over for Thanksgiving. It was in the 70s and lightly breezy so it was gorgeous and we just all sat in the backyard (and went for walks, etc). We were masked the whole time except while eating and we sat about 10 feet apart. In talking to them, you could just hear the regret in their voice about things they're missing this year as they're in their 70s and feel they only have a few good years left to do things like travel, grow up with grandkids, etc.

I was talking to my Aunt and Uncle last night and they're in their 70s and we were talking about our virtual Christmas plans (gift exchange, everyone talking on Facebook Messenger for Christmas eve, etc) and you could hear that same sentiment in their voice: they talked about how they've cancelled 6 trips (between the start of COVID and the beginning of next year). My uncle just had a heart attack last year and it re-reminded them how much they want to do in the time they have left. And let's not even talk about my Grandmother who is about to turn 97 and has been in a locked down home for months. While my parents are saying "they may only have a few years left", for her it's more certain.

A couple of months ago, my parents and my aunt and uncle met up at some cabin in the back woods in Arkansas (my parents are in the Houston area and they're in Chicago area so it was about halfway) for about a week. There's some travel risk in getting there and I wouldn't be at all comfortable sleeping in a hotel but maybe in a cabin for a few days I'd be able to pack away my fear long enough to enjoy it. My parents were like "being shut-ins at our age isn't good for our mental health" - it's part rationalization, but part true. I really get that one - it's about as safe a trip as you can do right now.

My aunt and uncle were talking about how they were going to isolate for two weeks and the family of one of my cousins was going to do the same. That way my aunt and uncle can visit with them and watch the grandkids for a week over winter break. This all makes sense to me.

My parents have talked about the same thing. There's one risk they can't get around, though, as my mom had to go to the doctor's office every week for treatment. Again, I get that one. Frankly, it elevates their risk profile well above ours as it's not just going somewhere, but it's going to a doctor's office during a pandemic. But it's necessary.

They want to sound like that's their only risks and we almost consider letting the grandkid stay with them because we'd love a break for the first time in nearly a year. However, then they'll let little stories slip out about how they'll go into Kroger because the curbside order didn't have anything or how they went into Target because they didn't want to buy something online on Amazon. And it just makes me mad. They try to guilt us but then don't hold up their end of the bargain and, frankly, at this point, can't be trusted.

Personally, we've been overly restrictive both because we can and because we feel it's our "duty" to. We both work from home, we're homeschooling a kindergartner (words I never thought I'd utter a year ago- I mean, we've had him in daycare since 5 months). That guy who works in Kroger to pay his rent doesn't need me coming in there to spread germs - he can just drop the bag in my trunk and we're all safer that way. It's inconvenient but he still gets paid and I still get my groceries (even if I don't get all of them, don't get great produce/meat, and, frankly it takes as long on the app as it does for me to go in-store and do it - that's the "COVID tax" that we pay to try and get through this pandemic faster).

There are three factors where the equations are totally different between the Gen X/Oregon Trail/Millennials that make up the vast majority of this board and the Boomers:
1) For instance, with what we were talking about above: I don't want the guilt of killing family members. It's a lot more likely that I kill my parents if I give them COVID than they would kill me by giving me COVID.
2) The other big fear that is disproportionately on our side is long term effects. At 75, I wonder if they're just like "what's one more long term malady" whereas in my 40s, my wife and I are like "I don't want something for the next 50 years".
3) Finally, there's the aforementioned time left. Rightly or wrongly, we think we have a lot more time left so the little bits of time are less "precious" to us.

I kindof get those mentally but maybe not emotionally. Again, I get why you would risk it to go on that trip or see those family members for a long period of time. What I don't think I'll ever get, even when they're about to pull the plug on me, is why someone would take those same risks to hit up Kroger.

SI

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW via the NYT: The Trump Administration passed when Pfizer offered in late summer to sell the U.S. government additional doses of its Covid-19 vaccine. <a href="https://t.co/t4dBwBRACZ">https://t.co/t4dBwBRACZ</a></p>&mdash; Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1336062783864102915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

This is the non-political thread, so I won't say much. But I am happy that the new administration is vaccine focused and not herd immunity focused.

I think that, as a matter of science, we should prioritize vaccines.

And I am probably less chauvinistic than most others on here. But even I think that the American President should have a mild preference for Americans over foreign nationals in matters like this. So that will be a nice change, too.

I thought we gave up on the idea of 2 seperate threads?

And yeah, from what I've read, we've secured enough vaccines for 100 million people so far between Pfizer and Moderna. It really doesn't need to be said, but that's not enough.

Maybe we did. I kind of checked out for a while.

We can give up on the pretense as there are no longer 2 separate threads. It's a farce and the pandemic is inherently political in some aspects.

SI

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code">Whistleblower in Florida who called out the state for hiding data.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1/<br>There will be no update today. <br><br>At 8:30 am this morning, state police came into my house and took all my hardware and tech. <br><br>They were serving a warrant on my computer after DOH filed a complaint.<br><br>They pointed a gun in my face. They pointed guns at my kids.. <a href="https://t.co/DE2QfOmtPU">pic.twitter.com/DE2QfOmtPU</a></p>&mdash; Rebekah Jones (@GeoRebekah) <a href="https://twitter.com/GeoRebekah/status/1336065787900145665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

We can give up on the pretense as there are no longer 2 separate threads. It's a farce and the pandemic is inherently political in some aspects.

SI

IIRC Ben merged the Coronavirus Political thread into the Trump thread. It was just Trump bashing anyway.

I vote we keep this thread non-political.

I'm going to have to see if I can track it down, but I was reading something online from an immunologist who mentioned studies are showing COVID immunity after infection is extremely variable, but averages 70-90 days, with an expected high-end immunity of up to 1-2 years (based upon antibody count decay, I think? No idea how they got that kind of info).

Definitely not the consensus i am seeing recently. Might have been early on when many studies where looking at the shortterm antibodies. ? There's essentially 3 types, two of which are decreasing relatively shortly, one (IgG) longer but not Infinite. But none of that is surprising and later studies showed that IgG antibodies stabilise at a low but aparently perfevtly sufficient level showing reactivity in the lab and essentially no reinfections in health care setting studies (easy to monitor) even with decent levels of general infections now and in the spring.
One of the biggest studies done on the general public is this from Mount Sinai hospital in New York, 30k people overwhelmingly showing robust neutralizing Response after an average of 5 months with data in line with the first SARS and MERS, where lab response hints very strongly at immunity even now after a lot of years.

Robust neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 infection persist for months | Science (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6521/1227)

Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are associated with protection against reinfection | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.20234369v1)

(This the healthcare one)

There's also B and T Cell immunity, which is even more difficult to measure but looks very promising when done.

I see Republicans are hard at work positioning themselves for a time when there is no incentive whatsoever to Trump up things re: Vaccine.
Today invited a anti-vaxx personality (+ HIV Denialist + Climate Change denialist + Darwinism denialist + anti Public Health + a whole slew of other positions in that vein) to a hearing.
(Yes, the association she represents is exactly like that).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jane-orient-anti-vaxxer-covid-senate-b1767579.html?amp

Again, i am pretty sure Trump will start on that at some point as well undermining things.

IIRC Ben merged the Coronavirus Political thread into the Trump thread. It was just Trump bashing anyway.

I vote we keep this thread non-political.

Disagree, this is the way it is because of political stupidity.

This. I'm in a position where this might be my Mom's last holiday season, but I certainly don't want to do anything to ensure she doesn't make it to 2021.

My mother is practically demanding we ignore precautions; she really doesn't care if she gets it.

As for my father, I guess depending on how severe his cancer is, he figures he's rolling the dice no matter what.

Yet they cannot fathom that if one of my kids actually give it to them and they die how they would process that they were at fault (my kids not my parents). It's so selfish and stupid. So we miss a Thanksgiving or Christmas, is it really that big of a deal, over being isolated in a hospital and dying alone gasping for air?

IIRC Ben merged the Coronavirus Political thread into the Trump thread. It was just Trump bashing anyway.

I vote we keep this thread non-political.

Duly noted

Except, of course, the response to the pandemic and things like DeSantis sending goons down to harangue his own former state COVID officials are going to be somewhat political but definitely belong here.

Never mind that Trump is still doing his full blown "election was stolen" tour so any COVID news in the Trump thread gets buried.

So, like adults, we'll try to put stuff where it best fits even if there's a risk of whining to the moderator.

SI

"The Thread We Talk About Republicans That Do Shitty Things."


/notes original also omits "where"

Never mind that Trump is still doing his full blown "election was stolen" tour so any COVID news in the Trump thread gets buried.


Same point. Once we get political in this thread, it will inevitably turn Trump bashing (tell me if you really believe otherwise), and helpful COVID news, articles, personal experiences etc. gets buried.

Honestly, the root cause of the disasterous response is Trump. Even your example of DeSantis is Trump based as he has enabled or DeSantis has felt empowered to do it.

Of course, that example matters for non-political reasons as well as political - Florida's fraudulent numbers matter in terms of how safe is it in Florida right now.

SI

Same point. Once we get political in this thread, it will inevitably turn Trump bashing (tell me if you really believe otherwise), and helpful COVID news, articles, personal experiences etc. gets buried.

Honestly, the root cause of the disasterous response is Trump. Even your example of DeSantis is Trump based as he has enabled or DeSantis has felt empowered to do it.
It's FOFC - we're not getting that many posts, and we don't even seem to have personal disagreements about political topics. The only time we have a problem is when some esoteric religion argument breaks out, just avoid that stuff & we'll be fine with a catch all thread. IMHO

Definitely not the consensus i am seeing recently. Might have been early on when many studies where looking at the shortterm antibodies. ? There's essentially 3 types, two of which are decreasing relatively shortly, one (IgG) longer but not Infinite. But none of that is surprising and later studies showed that IgG antibodies stabilise at a low but aparently perfevtly sufficient level showing reactivity in the lab and essentially no reinfections in health care setting studies (easy to monitor) even with decent levels of general infections now and in the spring.
One of the biggest studies done on the general public is this from Mount Sinai hospital in New York, 30k people overwhelmingly showing robust neutralizing Response after an average of 5 months with data in line with the first SARS and MERS, where lab response hints very strongly at immunity even now after a lot of years.

Robust neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 infection persist for months | Science (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6521/1227)

Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are associated with protection against reinfection | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.20234369v1)

(This the healthcare one)

There's also B and T Cell immunity, which is even more difficult to measure but looks very promising when done.

Found it! And I mis-read it completely; the immunologist implied that data shows people who get it twice get it fairly quickly, with an average so far of 70-ish days between first negative test after the first infection and second positive test. Here's the article, which does imply that the B and T cell immunity looks promising and much more long-term:

More people are getting COVID-19 twice, suggesting immunity wanes quickly in some | Science | AAAS (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/more-people-are-getting-covid-19-twice-suggesting-immunity-wanes-quickly-some)

It's FOFC - we're not getting that many posts, and we don't even seem to have personal disagreements about political topics. The only time we have a problem is when some esoteric religion argument breaks out, just avoid that stuff & we'll be fine with a catch all thread. IMHO

Er ... "don't even seem to have personal disagreements about political topics"?

Honestly, we must not be reading the same thing. Go to Trump thread and do search for "racist/racism". My swag is 60-70% political disagreements end up with that accusation.

Er ... "don't even seem to have personal disagreements about political topics"?

Honestly, we must not be reading the same thing. Go to Trump thread and do search for "racist/racism". My swag is 60-70% political disagreements end up with that accusation.
Yes, I don't think the personal disagreements are about political topics. The racism accusations fly like anywhere on the internet, but they pass or are shouted down & the personal ones end up being about religion or people being pedantic with language. No one here is actually arguing Trump won...

Yes, I don't think the personal disagreements are about political topics.
The racism accusations fly like anywhere on the internet, but they pass or are shouted down & the personal ones end up being about religion or people being pedantic with language.
I don't disagree there are "personal ones ... about religion" (and think SCOTUS discussion was fairly mild) in the Trump thread but there are plenty that deal with political/Trump "policies" including the Wall, Immigration, Muslim entrance restrictions, maybe BLM (maybe not in Trump thread because it had its own thread), tax cuts and "pulling one self up by their own bootstraps", and generally discussions trying to look at "both" sides of a discussion etc.

No one here is actually arguing Trump won...

True.

Bottom line. If you don't think the Trump thread contains "personal disagreements about political topics" (and a lot of it), I don't know how to convince you otherwise and we'll agree to disagree.

Kudos to the first and second ones. Looking forward to my turn eta 2Q.

I read an article somewhere that said the Queen was not going to be in the first batch because she was not a health care worker and I assume she did not want to "cut in line". I read another article that said maybe she would take it early just to show it was safe. I think there are pros and cons to either position, wonder where that will land.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/europe/uk-pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccination-intl/index.html
The United Kingdom has become the first Western nation to begin vaccinating its citizens with a Covid-19 shot outside of clinical trials -- a landmark moment in the coronavirus pandemic.

The first Briton to get the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine -- 90-year-old Margaret Keenan -- received the first of two doses at 6:31 a.m. local time on Tuesday at University Hospital in Coventry, less than a week after the UK became the first country to approve it.

Keenan, who turns 91 next week, said she felt "privileged" to be the first to get the shot.

"It's the best early birthday present I could wish for because it means I can finally look forward to spending time with my family and friends in the New Year after being on my own for most of the year," she said, according to a statement released by the UK's National Health Service (NHS).

https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/130786128_2704007863243243_2407838726952113527_n.png?_nc_cat=108&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=iMH6qFdTFCsAX8cOMEU&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=ebc5e6786eaa9e84c40fe3316605ca16&oe=5FF70E14

https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/130786128_2704007863243243_2407838726952113527_n.png?_nc_cat=108&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=iMH6qFdTFCsAX8cOMEU&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=ebc5e6786eaa9e84c40fe3316605ca16&oe=5FF70E14

But the election was stolen, that should be the big news....!:banghead:

Isn't that graph a tad misleading? This is a country that averaged over 7,000 deaths a day in 2017.

Seem very clear that it's trying to reference "deaths due to a specific cause"

Messaging gets really diluted when we asterisk it to death, but ymmv

(heavily predacted)

I read a twitter thread recently that explained that Covid deaths as "reported" actually lag anywhere from 1-3 weeks due solely to the administrative reporting function. Meaning, there's the lag that occurs from an increase in cases to hospitalization to death which is maybe 2-4 weeks, but then there's another administrative lag when deaths are reported from the date death actually occurs to when we see them on a daily report. So, deaths as reported today might relate back to infections that happened upwards of 4-8 weeks ago, and might have occurred weeks ago.

I don't know if that's entirely true or not, but if it is, I have to imagine January daily numbers are going to easily surpass what we're seeing now. Possibly February, too, depending on whether we can start to get cases under control.

I read a twitter thread recently that explained that Covid deaths as "reported" actually lag anywhere from 1-3 weeks due solely to the administrative reporting function. Meaning, there's the lag that occurs from an increase in cases to hospitalization to death which is maybe 2-4 weeks, but then there's another administrative lag when deaths are reported from the date death actually occurs to when we see them on a daily report. So, deaths as reported today might relate back to infections that happened upwards of 4-8 weeks ago, and might have occurred weeks ago.

I don't know if that's entirely true or not, but if it is, I have to imagine January daily numbers are going to easily surpass what we're seeing now. Possibly February, too, depending on whether we can start to get cases under control.

Not quite that massive a delay, from what i understand. This is generally true for mortality figures (which are compiled based on death certificates) and can be seen really clearly looking at CDC data on excess deaths. But the Covid deaths themselves get reported rather sooner. Big AFAIK disclaimer and going from memory from when i last looked it up weeks ago.

Lots of vaccine news today:

1) Astrazeneca published a paper in Lancet, which unfortunately adds more confusion than it clears up. Not only was the "accidental" half dose only given to people under 55 but also they got the 2nd more than 8 weeks later. Which is just not actionable and makes it impossible to compare to the standard dosage on 2 fronts.

2) the FDA published 150 pages of data and analysis on the BionTech/Pfizer vaccine. Some aditional info on "needs to be observed" side effects including temporary cerebral palsy. It also alludes to being effective at least short term after the first dose (all you can judge, since everybody got a 2nd after 21 days).

Headliner graphic showing efficacy more visually:

https://www.statnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/vrbpac-1024x609.png

The first bunch of cases veeeery likely were infected before the trial or directly after the first dose (doesn't work instantly). That's why the 2 curves run parallel to start.

Asterisking to death is indeed bad, but when you are talking about extra deaths that don't even approach the typical daily deaths from other causes, that's not what's going on. It's more accurately described as ignoring the big picture and is a gross distortion at best. Propaganda is still bad even when it supports a worthy cause.

This is crazy to think about - while the Trump administration attempted to bypass doing pretty much anything for about 9 months except push to keep the county open while it fast-tracked a vaccine, that approach was obviously flawed.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The good news is: vaccines!<br>The bad news is: <a href="https://t.co/29awQzJYYx">pic.twitter.com/29awQzJYYx</a></p>&mdash; katie rosman (@katierosman) <a href="https://twitter.com/katierosman/status/1336288774507130882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Kudos to the first and second ones. Looking forward to my turn eta 2Q.

I read an article somewhere that said the Queen was not going to be in the first batch because she was not a health care worker and I assume she did not want to "cut in line". I read another article that said maybe she would take it early just to show it was safe. I think there are pros and cons to either position, wonder where that will land.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/europe/uk-pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccination-intl/index.html

The second person vaccinated was William Shakespeare from Warwick. No lie. We even fucked up the extra publicity making him first would have brought!

And Mr. Shakespeare has more than a passing resemblance to the original.

https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/130786128_2704007863243243_2407838726952113527_n.png?_nc_cat=108&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=iMH6qFdTFCsAX8cOMEU&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=ebc5e6786eaa9e84c40fe3316605ca16&oe=5FF70E14
Because I find it interesting... We seem to average around 2000 a day from both heart disease & cancer, D-Day was around 2500, and the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 195k Americans in October 1918, or 6.5k per day.

I definitely do not like the China government but kudos for trying to do good. Wouldn't surprise me if there are some issues with the vaccine (hopefully minor and not like permanent) but given the choice of waiting for Western vaccines to become available (if its Q2 or Q3 for us in the US, what would it be in Indonesia? or Africe?), I don't think developing countries have many good options.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-08/sinovac-says-97-rate-is-seroconversion-rate-in-indonesia-trial)
Chinese vaccine maker Sinovac Biotech Ltd.’s coronavirus shot created antibodies among 97% of those administered with it in a final stage trial in Indonesia but its efficacy has yet to be determined, a company spokesperson said Tuesday.

The clarification came after Sinovac’s Indonesian partner, PT Bio Farma, said that the vaccine had proven 97% effective in early clinical trials there. When asked about Sinovac’s response, Bio Farma refrained from agreeing and instead said the final efficacy rate will only be concluded in January.

Sinovac said that the 97% figure referred to the seroconversion rate, which is separate from the vaccine’s efficacy, as a high seroconversion rate does not necessarily mean that the vaccine effectively protects people against Covid-19.
:
:
Still, doses have already been given to hundreds of thousands of people locally under China’s emergency-use program. That has raised concern among scientists of the potential risks in using shots where safety has yet to be thoroughly studied.

The husband of my wife's friend's test came back positive. Their whole house is sick now.

FYI for you guys, MrBug posted tonight that he's heading to the hospital with Covid pneumonia. He's been very sick for the last 8 days. He's lost about 10 pounds, been running a 102 temp and can't keep anything down. Send your best thoughts and prayers his way.

Jesus. Hope he is ok.

Keep strong, MrBug!

Well, shit. Hope he rebounds, and swiftly.

"Oh, the numbers. Oh, only those way over 40. Oh, we're mostly just worried about our parents."

Yeah, screw that noise. We're not bulletproof, either.

Kick some ass, Bug. We're all pulling for you.

I hope he doesn't mind my copy/paste to here.

MrBug's most recent message this morning:
Ended up being hospitalized for the night and on oxygen. Actually feel much better this morning. Hope it continues! Thanks for all the prayers and good thoughts. I don't get any cell services so I can check or respond to anyone. But know that I am grateful for all.

We are all thinking of you Mr. Bug! Stay Strong! And thanks for the update ABC!

Oh man. That's rough

SI

Damn. Good luck Mr. Bug!

So crazy how hit-and-miss this is. Our company president, his wife and stepson all got it within hours of each other, and his wife's brother died from it. Both my kids got it - Caitlin came home for 1 day (lost taste the next day, tested positive 2 days after that), was in the car with me and Mackenzie for 45 minutes and Mackenzie got it. Wife and I spent about 3 weeks in the house with Mackenzie while she tested negative and then positive, kept her isolated, and neither of us got it.

Interesting tool to see how overwhelmed your hospital is.

Is Your Hospital Overwhelmed With COVID-19 Patients? Find Out With This Tool : Shots - Health News : NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/09/944379919/new-data-reveal-which-hospitals-are-dangerously-full-is-yours)

Beds used by Covid patients - 20%
Beds used overall - 75%
Daily Covid patients 7 day average - 56

Shouldn't the 7 day average of 56 implies the beds used by Covid should be higher than 20%? Maybe those covid patients have covid but are not serious enough to stay in the hospital?

94% full with 33% COVID patients.

That's a good tool, 90% & 32% here.

Here's the reaction of the local conservatives...

https://www.facebook.com/267885190785083/posts/764684564438474/

Hope you get better soon, MB! That's gotta be terrifying, but good news that you are feeling better.

65% & 21%. I thought it would be higher. I guess it's good that I'm wrong?

We got a couple hospitals in a 15 min drive

They go (Covid, Overall:
16%, 65% (Emory Decatur)
7%, 77% (Emory Unversity Hospital

That's a good tool, 90% & 32% here.

Here's the reaction of the local conservatives...

https://www.facebook.com/267885190785083/posts/764684564438474/

That's the area in Texas my wife is from. After listening to her family since this started I'm not the least bit surprised.

We had to submit to our department yesterday whether we wanted the COVID vaccine or not so it looks like we will be getting it shortly after it's approved.