I don't really get trying to equate COVID deaths vs. any other existing reason for death, or necessarily that the overall death rate even matters. It's an entire new thing to die from. It's additive. It doesn't matter if we normally have X people dying per day, and COVID is like X(.7). That's still x(.7) MORE DEAD PEOPLE. The other X are still also dying, for all the same old reasons. Yeah maybe COVID gets a little early credit for some of the X that were on their way out anyways, but still. This is a whole new way to die, that our psyche and medical systems were not prepared for.

Our psyche should have been prepared for it, but aside from that it's about putting it in appropriate context. I.e., how much is worth shutting down large sections of the economy for, and for how long. How much should we obsess over it compared to other causes that we blithely accept/try not to think too much about/etc. It's about perspective and having our head screwed on straight.

how much is worth shutting down large sections of the economy for, and for how long

I start to get uncomfortable anytime someone starts down the "when is it too expensive to save peoples' lives" trail.

I totally agree with you that it's uncomfortable. As I said a day or two ago though, the concerns essentially overlap. People die all the time, thankfully far less in this country than it happens elsewhere but still, because of economic issues. Consider just those who get addicted to opiods and overdose, or those who ration insulin due to the high price, etc.

I start to get uncomfortable anytime someone starts down the "when is it too expensive to save peoples' lives" trail.

To the rich money>people, unless its them.

People are a resource that is basically endless. There are always people looking for work.

I start to get uncomfortable anytime someone starts down the "when is it too expensive to save peoples' lives" trail.

I'm not there yet but I am seeing online a very shortsighted money vs lives arguement when in reality it is lives vs lives. Not going to do a super thorough search because just making a point but people die due to bad economies. Again it seems worth saving lives now and that we are saving a lot of lives but at some point the economic hit will be worse, much worse. This would be 2008, I'm sure the great depression is a lot worse.

Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study
Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/financial-crisis-caused-500000-extra-cancer-death-according-to-l/)

Harvard University › hsph › news
Global economic downturn linked with at least 260,000 excess cancer deaths | News | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health - Harvard University

Forbes › sites › 2014/06/12 › m...
More Than 10,000 Suicides Tied To Economic Crisis, Study Says - Forbes

To the rich money>people, unless its them.

People are a resource that is basically endless. There are always people looking for work.

I dont think it's the rich who suffer the most with a collapsed economy. In fact they recover the quickest.

We're not having the cohesive response needed, though parts of it are good, but we're not Italy. It might be sheer luck that we're not, but still.

Remember that first you need a sufficient number of infected to 'create' enough momentum to truly have it explode. And many positive tests today were likely infected more than a week ago and most deaths 2 weeks ago or more. So really you are always looking at the past when seeing those numbers.

And since the US really only started seriously testing and thus also reliably identifying subsequents deaths as being infected prior to them dying around March 22nd, everything before that now seems to good to have been true. Italy did the same progression to more testing and thus exploding Cases around March 8th and their death numbers truly exploded about 12 days later with a couple steps in between.

Now i dont expect the US as a whole to come close in per-capita numbers due to a number of reasons (more capacity, different social structure, large distances) but it won't remotely stay at current levels i'm afraid.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Awful news: Adam Schlesinger, the incredibly talented co-founder of Fountains of Wayne and Ivy, dies at age 52 from complications of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a>. <a href="https://t.co/VXd4mo2KK0">https://t.co/VXd4mo2KK0</a> <a href="https://t.co/qFwVtifB2J">pic.twitter.com/qFwVtifB2J</a></p>&mdash; Jim Roberts (@nycjim) <a href="https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1245479751915012097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I don't really get trying to equate COVID deaths vs. any other existing reason for death, or necessarily that the overall death rate even matters. It's an entire new thing to die from. It's additive. It doesn't matter if we normally have X people dying per day, and COVID is like X(.7). That's still x(.7) MORE DEAD PEOPLE. The other X are still also dying, for all the same old reasons. Yeah maybe COVID gets a little early credit for some of the X that were on their way out anyways, but still. This is a whole new way to die, that our psyche and medical systems were not prepared for.

Or the point that they just made on the news (NYC guidelines: if you don't have a pulse, don't send someone to the hospital in hopes of revival), you are going to see MORE people dying of the other things because services that normally could save them may not be able to.

I'm not there yet but I am seeing online a very shortsighted money vs lives arguement when in reality it is lives vs lives. Not going to do a super thorough search because just making a point but people die due to bad economies. Again it seems worth saving lives now and that we are saving a lot of lives but at some point the economic hit will be worse, much worse. This would be 2008, I'm sure the great depression is a lot worse.

Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study
Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/financial-crisis-caused-500000-extra-cancer-death-according-to-l/)

Harvard University › hsph › news
Global economic downturn linked with at least 260,000 excess cancer deaths | News | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health - Harvard University

Forbes › sites › 2014/06/12 › m...
More Than 10,000 Suicides Tied To Economic Crisis, Study Says - Forbes


The hospitals and doctors Offices even more hopelessly overflowing with Coronavirus patients (and tons of healthcare workers getting infected and out of comission) would also lead to a lot more non-Covid deaths in the short and longterm.

The only way to create this trade-off (rather Covid deaths than others) would be if you just let them die and were somehow as a nation able to ignore that growing mountain of bodies stacked in the corner, so to speak.

I'm not a fan of the 'the economy kills people, too' argument, either. I don't remember chaotic scenes inside hospitals in 2008 as they were overwhelmed with the dead.

I don't understand what people think can be done about the economy. If they ended all these orders, do you think the economy would just get right back on track? Do you think restaurants would be packed?

There are some dummies who will do their thing but as the bodies pile up, I don't see most people putting themselves in danger to attend a sporting event or go out to dinner. Ask yourself, would you attend a Knicks game in New York tonight with 20,000 people?

The economy isn't bad because of lockdowns and quarantines. It's bad because of the virus. It comes back when the virus is contained and/or controlled. There is no alternative route.

An interesting idea is setting up a way where people who had the disease (and are no longer contagious) could get some kind of "clearance" to do jobs involving more people. I'm not sure how feasible it is, but as more people get this (and recover), we may want to look at ways to leverage the immunity a certain percentage have.

Also for those comparing numbers, the 100k-240k death total is if we do all this distancing crap. If we did nothing it would be in the millions according to most models.

How do you think a country reacts to seeing 2-3 million people wiped out in the next 6 months? Your options are open things up, maybe see a little better economy, and have millions dead. Or keep things shut down, have a bad economy for a year, and see 100k deaths. I don't know how you can argue for the first one.

The carrier Theodore Roosevelt has over 200 cases and the Captain is asking for removing all personnel.

Good news! Hope they make it through safely.

https://apnews.com/cabbd6ade631320d515b365a6cb4c971

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 3,000 sailors aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier where the coronavirus has spread will be taken off the ship by Friday, Navy officials said Wednesday as they struggle to quarantine crew members in the face of an outbreak.

Our psyche should have been prepared for it


Really? Yes, deep down everyone knows that a pandemic is a possibility. But that's like saying deep down we also know that California could fall into the sea. Or that Yellowstone could erupt. It's true, but don't pretend anyone should be mentally prepared for it.

An off-his-rocker Conspiracy theorist (is there any other type of conspiracy theorist?) deliberately crashed a train to prove the hospital ship USNS Mercy was part of a government take over. Folks, we're through the looking glass here.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-charge-man-who-intentionally-derailed-train-near-usns-mercy-n1174461

Good news! Hope they make it through safely.

https://apnews.com/cabbd6ade631320d515b365a6cb4c971

Good for them that this charade is over (IIRC just Yesterday i read that command was still maintaining essentially they could do business as usual)

An off-his-rocker Conspiracy theorist (is there any other type of conspiracy theorist?) deliberately crashed a train to prove the hospital ship USNS Mercy was part of a government take over. Folks, we're through the looking glass here.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-charge-man-who-intentionally-derailed-train-near-usns-mercy-n1174461

Shocking if he's not full Q.

Really? Yes, deep down everyone knows that a pandemic is a possibility. But that's like saying deep down we also know that California could fall into the sea. Or that Yellowstone could erupt. It's true, but don't pretend anyone should be mentally prepared for it.

It's not at all like those two things. Both of them are far less likely. As I said a few times near the start of this outbreak, we're collectively paying the price for assuming the future would be as good or better than the present, and it cuts across many levels and aspects of society. I'm guilty of it myself, but I'm not going to pretend that's down to anything but my own hubris.

How do you think a country reacts to seeing 2-3 million people wiped out in the next 6 months? Your options are open things up, maybe see a little better economy, and have millions dead. Or keep things shut down, have a bad economy for a year, and see 100k deaths. I don't know how you can argue for the first one.

The hospitals and doctors Offices even more hopelessly overflowing with Coronavirus patients (and tons of healthcare workers getting infected and out of comission) would also lead to a lot more non-Covid deaths in the short and longterm.

Just using these as representative of this POV. I totally agree that it's necessary to deal with the virus, and exactly for the stated reason of medical capacity being overwhelmed and all the extra deaths that would entail. At the same time, an extended economic shutdown would almost certainly cost more than 100k deaths from everything I know.

Pointing out that people will die to the depression we're entering into here is not the same thing as advocating for no restrictions or saying it isn't justified. I've got relatives who are against the shutdown and I've used pretty much the exact same argument being made here. When this balancing act becomes relevant is in terms of how soon you open things back up once the virus is under some reasonable level of control. The cultural impact of it also has a price.

My main point is just to have some balance in the equation, and facing reality means facing the fact that people will die because of this (necessary) action. And that means the tradeoff isn't purely money for lives. It's more nuanced and complex than that. .

If 2-3 million die in 6 months what does that do to the economy? Surely there would cause some serious issues.

In other news, another American first - first to report a thousand deaths in a day. Yes I know there's actually more across the board blah blah blah.

I'm not a fan of the 'the economy kills people, too' argument, either. I don't remember chaotic scenes inside hospitals in 2008 as they were overwhelmed with the dead.

You obviously don't remember the death panels.

It's not at all like those two things. Both of them are far less likely. As I said a few times near the start of this outbreak, we're collectively paying the price for assuming the future would be as good or better than the present, and it cuts across many levels and aspects of society. I'm guilty of it myself, but I'm not going to pretend that's down to anything but my own hubris.





Just using these as representative of this POV. I totally agree that it's necessary to deal with the virus, and exactly for the stated reason of medical capacity being overwhelmed and all the extra deaths that would entail. At the same time, an extended economic shutdown would almost certainly cost more than 100k deaths from everything I know.

Pointing out that people will die to the depression we're entering into here is not the same thing as advocating for no restrictions or saying it isn't justified. I've got relatives who are against the shutdown and I've used pretty much the exact same argument being made here. When this balancing act becomes relevant is in terms of how soon you open things back up once the virus is under some reasonable level of control. The cultural impact of it also has a price.

My main point is just to have some balance in the equation, and facing reality means facing the fact that people will die because of this (necessary) action. And that means the tradeoff isn't purely money for lives. It's more nuanced and complex than that. .

Studies after this period will be fascinating. In NYC there's a much greater incidence of domestic violence already, but fewer auto accidents and non-family violent crime.

In other news, another American first - first to report a thousand deaths in a day. Yes I know there's actually more across the board blah blah blah.

It was only like 2 Mondays ago where we hit 100. Now we are over 5,000+ dead and 1,000 a day.

Not sure we have the info but assume these deaths are not because they did not get ventilators or medicines. They died in spite of our best efforts (e.g. lack of effective therapeutics).

I don't think ventilators are the issue … yet. NYC is talking about it becoming one soon, but so far they've kept ahead of that happening yet. So yeah, despite best efforts.

About 20 mins away from me another nursing home outbreak was announced yesterday. Unfortunately there will almost certainly be a number there that don't recover.

it's been so long since I've posted here, I feel like a visitor. I still read from time to time, but it took a Pandemic and me wondering what all of you were thinking to get me back here to actually post.

I'm with Rainmaker in thinking that even if the "shelter in place" orders were lifted, the economy would still continue to take a hit.

I am starting to think that we're not going to be back to business as usual until there is a vaccine for this thing. Unless the virus disappears not to return when the weather turns hot, this is going to continue to reshape the world until it we can "manage" it. When will it be okay to risk your life or the lives of those that live with you to: Go to a football game? Go to a concert? Go to a restaurant? Go to school?

I think that barring the virus disappearing as quickly as it appeared, we're shut down for the long haul. A year or two. The implications of that are hard to grasp, but I can't imagine us just saying "yeah we're going to just grin and bear it".

About 20 mins away from me another nursing home outbreak was announced yesterday. Unfortunately there will almost certainly be a number there that don't recover.


The first nursing home breakout has happened here in NKY. About 20 min away, one resident and two workers. Have to believe with two workers infected, there's more than one resident infected.

I think that barring the virus disappearing as quickly as it appeared, we're shut down for the long haul. A year or two. The implications of that are hard to grasp, but I can't imagine us just saying "yeah we're going to just grin and bear it".




If this is indeed the case, I will be out of a job, and the airline mergers will start.

it's been so long since I've posted here, I feel like a visitor. I still read from time to time, but it took a Pandemic and me wondering what all of you were thinking to get me back here to actually post.

Welcome back!

I can't see us getting back to normal anytime soon either. And I wonder if the entire baseball and football seasons will be cancelled. I can't imagine we'll get back to having 80,000 people packed in a Stadium this year. Maybe if they get more testing but can you test everybody all the time?

HEY! AT LEAST WE GOT $1200!

I don't' think there's any way it takes a year or two. That simply isn't sustainable, regardless of how much we might want it to be. If the world largely tries that, you run out of money to borrow, and just printing more would only make things worse.

Plus it's likely to regress in the summer with warmer weather, therapeutic med trials will be completed well before then, possibly even a vaccine in that timeframe, and the virus will naturally weaken at least some due to natural mutation.

There will be a point where people hit their limit with this (financially and mentally) and the virus will be less of a threat. My guess is this will happen around June. I think April and May will be pretty tough and sports will start back in June (albeit without fans in the stadium).

Especially for sports, the TV deals are big money to go without. People will convince themselves it's OK for MLB and the NBA to play in empty stadiums by June (IMO). Not sure when restaurants/bars will be back to normal - that probably won't happen until the fall. But, I expect a relax on this "shelter in place" by June.

dola - Interesting question from one of the guys I work with today: If we assume that the nation won't have the stomach/financial ability to shelter in place until September/October - would it better to relax a lot of the constraints in July?

His reasoning was viruses usually don't do as well in the summer due to the heat, low point in allergies in many regions and other factors. So, isn't it better to let it propagate more in July/August than October/November when it could take hold in a serious way again?

Not sure what the answer is, but it made me think.

We'll see a lot from Europe first how gradually re-opening things over the next few months impacts the numbers. It looks like the Nordic countries (filled with people for whom social distance is part of life in regular times) seem eager to start the process pretty shortly.

You don't have to pick one side or the other between fighting the virus or salvaging the economy. Both are critical. If the economy doesn't matter, why bother with a stimulus package? We could have used that time, and resources, and borrowing, to more directly attack the virus instead, instead of worrying about people eating and salvaging some businesses and jobs. Obviously lives are at stake in both battles. It's just like a war where you have an enemy on both sides. If either are ignored, you're fucked. But timing of distributing resources matters. And there's always some maneuvers and plans that can fight one enemy that don't necessarily involve losing ground against the other enemy.

I just can’t see us having the ability/stomach to keep this going past September. And lifting the restrictions in Sept/Oct seems a lot more dangerous than late June/July in terms of allowing the virus to do damage. And it’s not like people are going to be flocking to concerts/sporting events if things do get relaxed a bit.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

I mentioned it earlier, and here's a link to the former Trump FDA head's re-opening plan. It's very good.

I think when we get back to normal is largely going to be decided by hospital & healthcare capacity/overload. Regardless of how stir crazy people get you can't ease restrictions if it means that little Timmy goes to the skate park, breaks his leg, then can't ever walk again or dies of an infection, because there weren't any beds available at the local hospital.

Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/florida-governor-ron-desantis-issuing-stay-at-home-order)

Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/florida-governor-ron-desantis-issuing-stay-at-home-order)

Stupid articles, discriminating against robots...

https://media1.tenor.com/images/e50fe5cf9d75cf6c46d585ab8f936202/tenor.gif

So it looks like my coworker had her wallet stolen, allegedly by another coworker.

I wish her good luck getting her ID back when most government services are shut down.

I keep coming back to the language that I heard and hear from most of the medical experts. For the most part they have said something to the effect of If we don't do these X number of things then horrible things will happen. We have spent the better part of the last month plus trying not to do the X number things, and yes horrible things have happened. I am optimistic that we finally have arrived at a point where we are actually serious doing those X number of things. I don't think we are going to see too many people throwing coronavirus parties any more.

I don't think this will last through the summer. Provided we do those X number of things nationwide, I think we will be in a place to reopen slowly. I think we will get to a point where people will identify symptoms, think coronavirus first as opposed to just a cold or just the flu and take whatever the precautions need to be taken. People will understand that just fighting through it may not be a good idea given what it might be and what the possible end. I think we need to prepare for the tens of cases that will pop up but be vigilant that we don't allow it.

There are some dummies who will do their thing but as the bodies pile up, I don't see most people putting themselves in danger to attend a sporting event or go out to dinner. Ask yourself, would you attend a Knicks game in New York tonight with 20,000 people?

Trick question. There weren't 20K people paying to watch the crappy Knicks before Coronavirus :p

SI

it's been so long since I've posted here, I feel like a visitor. I still read from time to time, but it took a Pandemic and me wondering what all of you were thinking to get me back here to actually post.

I'm with Rainmaker in thinking that even if the "shelter in place" orders were lifted, the economy would still continue to take a hit.

I am starting to think that we're not going to be back to business as usual until there is a vaccine for this thing. Unless the virus disappears not to return when the weather turns hot, this is going to continue to reshape the world until it we can "manage" it. When will it be okay to risk your life or the lives of those that live with you to: Go to a football game? Go to a concert? Go to a restaurant? Go to school?

I think that barring the virus disappearing as quickly as it appeared, we're shut down for the long haul. A year or two. The implications of that are hard to grasp, but I can't imagine us just saying "yeah we're going to just grin and bear it".


WB! I came back for the same reason a couple of weeks ago! Can we get some cool nickname like COVID compadres? Coronavirus companions? Retrovirus returners?


SI

Exponential growth does not go on forever. At some point enough people have contracted the virus and recovered that you have some herd immunity. I think projections for the numbers dropping off a lot are between end of June or July depending on where you live.

When things open up, there will be another wave, but it will be far less people and enough for the health care system to handle it. Hopefully there will be some drugs or techniques to fight it by then too.

For older people, I do think it's going to be a rough year or two. Nursing homes may require an antibody or negative test before you can enter the premises. Others will have to avoid crowds as much as possible.

Worth mentioning that we will probably never have an accurate accounting of deaths from this. Whether it be for lack of tests (are doctors going to waste a limited test on someone who is dead?) or political reasons. Some estimates in Italy have the actual number at 4 times what is being reported. They've only been recording those who die at a hospital with a positive test. Not people who died in their homes or at nursing homes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Digging through the Cook County medical examiner's website. Theres been a noticeable increase in deaths by &quot;pneumonia&quot; and &quot;acute respiratory distress&quot; this week that arent being listed as COVID deaths <a href="https://t.co/ZWn2CZDTSn">pic.twitter.com/ZWn2CZDTSn</a></p>&mdash; ��Don't Spread On Me�� (@lib_crusher) <a href="https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1245539683221868544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sure reads like neither the Sec. of the Navy or Sec. of Defense is happy with the Captain of the Roosevelt. The guy should be honored for doing what needed to be done to save his sailors.

Yeah, I think we are woefully undercounting actual cases and somewhat undercounting the death numbers. My best guess is we have 10X more cases and 2X more deaths, but it is really tough to know with any degree of certainty.

I think we take it month to month and see how it goes. And in the same way I couldn’t see Trump’s Easter comments happening, I don’t see a scenario where we are all in “Shelter in place” still in July.

An off-his-rocker Conspiracy theorist (is there any other type of conspiracy theorist?) deliberately crashed a train to prove the hospital ship USNS Mercy was part of a government take over. Folks, we're through the looking glass here.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-charge-man-who-intentionally-derailed-train-near-usns-mercy-n1174461

Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro, California, was charged with one count under a little-known train-wrecking statute

That phrase makes me grin, right there.

If kids return to school this fall (or to camps this summer,) what happens? Does the virus spread wildly among them, but with mostly mild/no symptoms? Does that mean we must continue to isolate their grandparents and the immunocompromised? Does there exist a path where a significant portion of the population can feel safe before the 12-18 month mark when there’s a vaccine? I would think we’d need MASSIVE testing to determine who has and hasn’t built up immunity. Again, as I mentioned well up thread, my entire family had an unknown respiratory illness with fever back in mid/late Feb. If none of us gets it for sure before the return to normalcy, there’s no way to know if we’re immune without mass testing.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

I mentioned it earlier, and here's a link to the former Trump FDA head's re-opening plan. It's very good.


That is a good article. A rational approach, rooted in the ongoing collection and analysis of data. Unfortunately, collecting data hasn't been one of our strong points in this conflict. If we can start testing without any constraints, really isolating new patients, and using some of the methods to track transmission that were used to good effect in parts of Asia, I can see the public supporting the reduction of social distancing measures.

That is a lot of ifs, but hopefully someone is putting the time that shelter in place is buying us to good use.

The US just snatched up 3.5 mio newly produced masks pretty much off the runway that were ordered, already paid for and desperately needed by France. By paying 3x the amount without even inspecting them.

Be glad, but be aware at the cost elsewhere when you hear of the US 'procuring' masks. And be aware that there will be dud deliveries like the severely substandard tests for Spain or another shipment of masks to the Netherlands the other day.

I'm not even going to be glad. I know you weren't necessarily saying this, but I don't think a US life is more valuable than a French one. If France had already paid for them, that's where they should go.

Sure reads like neither the Sec. of the Navy or Sec. of Defense is happy with the Captain of the Roosevelt. The guy should be honored for doing what needed to be done to save his sailors.

Last I read the SECDEF and SECNAV were both saying the right things but it might have changed. It is the same situation as the hospitals, their staff and the PPE. I highly doubt that the Captain only wrote that one letter.

The US just snatched up 3.5 mio newly produced masks pretty much off the runway that were ordered, already paid for and desperately needed by France. By paying 3x the amount without even inspecting them.

Be glad, but be aware at the cost elsewhere when you hear of the US 'procuring' masks. And be aware that there will be dud deliveries like the severely substandard tests for Spain or another shipment of masks to the Netherlands the other day.Yeah, 600,000 useless masks, of which several had already been taken into use by hospital employees. "Made in China", by no means meant Chinaphobic, but it's not uncommon with products labeled as such to turn out to br below safety standards.

I'm not even going to be glad. I know you weren't necessarily saying this, but I don't think a US life is more valuable than a French one. If France had already paid for them, that's where they should go.

Was more referring to future news without such specifics :) Every mask one country gets (mostly from china) there is a decent chance someone else missed out on a done deal and a 100% chance those masks are definitely missing somewhere else.

It just is an insane situation and IMO explains fully why most countries, especially bigger ones are less than eager to go to a "You have to wear a mask, period" state. because while some will make their own, you can also be sure a lot more individual buyers or individual cities f.e. will add to those pressures.

And it is paramount that every country gets cracking on getting current manufacturers what they need to expand and others to change their production to PPE if possible.

I think this is a good, short read on challenges beyond the obvious that a highly infectious desease like this presents in hospitals. And why it is almost impossible to put the genie back in the bottle once you are 'run over' by patients:

Coronavirus: My Queens, New York hospital is at the center of the US crisis - Vox (https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203372/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-queens-elmhurst-hospital-doctors-advice)

The things she talks about really are things hospitals outside the current 'hotspots' need to do now and not when they are already swamped.

If kids return to school this fall (or to camps this summer,) what happens? Does the virus spread wildly among them, but with mostly mild/no symptoms? Does that mean we must continue to isolate their grandparents and the immunocompromised? Does there exist a path where a significant portion of the population can feel safe before the 12-18 month mark when there’s a vaccine? I would think we’d need MASSIVE testing to determine who has and hasn’t built up immunity. Again, as I mentioned well up thread, my entire family had an unknown respiratory illness with fever back in mid/late Feb. If none of us gets it for sure before the return to normalcy, there’s no way to know if we’re immune without mass testing.

I didn't watch all of the daily briefing yesterday (so may have missed a clarification, follow-up question) but Fauci said testing for anti-bodies was lower on the priority list.

I'm not sure I understood this but assume although we can test for anti-bodies now, those testing facilities/resources are better used to test if someone has it or not (and not whether someone already had it and recovered).

So yes, I think after we are over this hump there will be a lot of anti-bodies testing by this summer.

More US unemployment nos. this morning. This should be fun ...

EDIT:

The Labor Department reported more than 6 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the week of March 27. Economists expected another 4 million to 5 million workers filed for jobless claims last week as coronavirus-related shutdowns roll through the country. The estimates ranged as high as 9 million.

I'm sure states have done similar things elsewhere, but in MI filing for unemployment is now split by last name; half each on alternating days. That's a bit of a sign how well the infrastructure is holding up to the demand.

A little bit of good news ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/white-house-advisor-fauci-says-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-is-on-target-and-will-be-ultimate-game-changer.html
The first human trial testing a potential vaccine to prevent COVID-19 is “on track” with public distribution still projected in 12 to 18 months, which would be the “ultimate game changer” in the fight against the pandemic, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday.

U.S. health officials have been fast-tracking work with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine to prevent COVID-19. They began their first human trials on a potential vaccine March 16.

The trial had to test three different doses of the vaccine, Fauci said, adding that they’ve already tested the first two doses and are now administering the highest dose to human volunteers to see if there are any adverse reactions to it.

“It’ll take a few months to get the data to where we’ll feel confident to go to the phase two, and then a few months from now we’ll be in phase two and I think we’re right on target for the year to year and a half,” Fauci said at a White House press conference with President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force.

I wonder what the process is for these drug trials. Obviously some company has an opportunity to make a lot of money.

So let's say Moderna is showing good initial results, are they sharing what they are testing so other companies around the world can help out (e.g. speed up the process, do a broader trial etc.)? Additionally, wouldn't they be worried if another company claims they have the vaccine first (e.g. maybe because they were not as rigorous as Moderna and cut corners)?

Moderna doesn't seem to have financial incentive to share anything but yet they are obligated, ethically to do so. I'm guessing they are protected by IP or patents etc. somehow but not sure all that really helps in this global crisis scenario.

[I]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.

GA Governor, YESTERDAY! How could he not know that before yesterday?

GA Governor, YESTERDAY! How could he not know that before yesterday?

i saw this online:

"There's a kernel of truth to what Kemp said about asymptomatic spreading, though he did a poor job explaining it.

It's old news that COVID-19 could spread without symptoms, but it's very recently that there's growing scientific support behind the idea that a huge portion of cases may have come from asymptomatic shedding. That's unusual compared to similar viruses.

Even the CDC is starting to re-evaluate recommendations (e.g., should the general public wear masks when not sick) because they weren't expecting these carriers to be this big of a problem just a couple weeks ago."

Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.
But don't worry - golfing is still considered an "essential" recreational activity.

Golf received an OK under Florida's stay-at-home advisory, though other activities will be curtailed amid concerns the coronavirus is starting to take hold in there. It's not being on the golf course. It's all the support workers necessary to maintain and run the operation which is what I object even more to...

Wimbledon cancelled for this year.

Wimbledon cancelled for this year.

Not a fan of tennis but I think Wimbledon (and Golf) can be still be played on TV without any crowds (and with some additional controls). Not appropriate anytime soon because of all the deaths but once we get over the jump, I wouldn't mind it to help morale and getting back to sense of normalcy.

I think everyone all over the world is feeling like shit right now.

Not a fan of tennis but I think Wimbledon (and Golf) can be still be played on TV without any crowds (and with some additional controls). Not appropriate anytime soon because of all the deaths but once we get over the jump, I wouldn't mind it to help morale and getting back to sense of normalcy.

I think everyone all over the world is feeling like shit right now.

My guess is it's the production. I would assume cameramen, video editing truck, announcers, security etc would be closer together than the two players. Agree though that sports would be great for morale and a huge boom for whatever league starts televising. (I haven't watched tennis in years but am so starved for sports I would probably watch tennis or golf)

I have a feeling that the NBA jump started the getting off our butts and doing something and they will probably lead the way in getting back to televising games etc.

A huge tournament like Wimbledon can't be held really, even after the peaks. Not just the players and the officials and the cameramen, but all the support staff that are required to maintain the court.

i saw this online:

"There's a kernel of truth to what Kemp said about asymptomatic spreading, though he did a poor job explaining it.

It's old news that COVID-19 could spread without symptoms, but it's very recently that there's growing scientific support behind the idea that a huge portion of cases may have come from asymptomatic shedding. That's unusual compared to similar viruses.

Even the CDC is starting to re-evaluate recommendations (e.g., should the general public wear masks when not sick) because they weren't expecting these carriers to be this big of a problem just a couple weeks ago."

But, in the last 24 hours?

I'm hearing more and more people toe the line of "Maybe this was planned by China" that leads me to believe that the conspiracy theorists and trolls are making headway. Sigh

Yeah, I wonder what will happen with soccer. ATLUTD typically sells out every game, with some north of 70k crammed together. We are certainly second guessing our season ticket renewal as it is expensive ($3k for 4 seats) and the crowds. I imagine there are a ton of people across all sports that will be second guessing their season tickets.

Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?

Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?

Idiots who still think this is all a media hoax?

Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?

Folks who think that the media is pushing this as "fake news" to harm the president. That he's "brainwashing" the President into not taking the actions needed. That he's part of the "Deep State".

I shit you not.

Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?

Some guy just derailed a train because of the presence of a virus relief ship. There are plenty of idiots out there.

A silver lining to this is that Murders are way down in St. Louis. And I imagine in most cities.

I guess thats something.

And it is paramount that every country gets cracking on getting current manufacturers what they need to expand and others to change their production to PPE if possible.
On of my friends works at the Honeywell down the street from my plant. He sent me this:

Honeywell Further Expands N95 Face Mask Production By Adding Manufacturing Capabilities In Phoenix (https://www.honeywell.com/en-us/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/03/honeywell-further-expands-n95-face-mask-production-by-adding-manufacturing-capabilities-in-phoenix)

Honeywell (NYSE: HON) today announced that it is adding manufacturing capabilities in Phoenix to produce N95 face masks in support of the U.S. government’s response to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

The company’s Phoenix expansion, coupled with previously announced new production in Rhode Island, will allow Honeywell to produce more than 20 million N95 disposable masks monthly to combat COVID-19 in the U.S. New manufacturing equipment to support the effort will arrive in Phoenix beginning this week.

“We at Honeywell are proud of our role in providing essential equipment to the first responders and medical professionals we are relying on during this crisis,” said Darius Adamczyk, Honeywell chairman and chief executive officer. “We have moved quickly to expand our production capacity for N95 masks globally and are pleased to announce our second new U.S. manufacturing line to supply the Strategic National Stockpile.”

Honeywell anticipates that the new mask production line in Phoenix will create more than 500 new jobs in Arizona. The company has already begun recruiting, hiring and training manufacturing workers on the site. Today’s announcement brings the total number of U.S. jobs created by Honeywell’s new mask manufacturing capabilities to more than 1,000.

The N95 face masks will be delivered to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to contribute to the American stockpile for use to support health, safety and emergency response workers. The Phoenix facility will prioritize fulfilling the U.S. government’s procurement, but it will also have the capacity to produce face masks for U.S. states and American healthcare and emergency response organizations.

Pretty good news on all fronts. 20 mil masks a month plus another 500 jobs created.

I am fascinated to see how the American sports viewing public will receive televised games without fans and the normal atmosphere of sports here. Watching PSG v Dortmund on the IPAD at the same time Liverpool v Atlético Madrid was surreal. We are desperate so we will probably eat it up but it is definitely an adjustment.

The seven second delay better be working as you can definitely hear every word that is said on the field.

Take this FWIW.

Wife received a text message from BIL who talked to a FDA friend. Friend said that cases of coronavirus is rising among the food processors and truckers. Friend said there will likely be shortages of vegetables and meat in the coming weeks.

Wife went to Costco, said there is a 30 min line outside and Costco is limiting no. of people in the store. She is going to Target/Walmart instead to buy meats we can freeze, frozen vegetables and top off the fresh vegetables.

Heard from a friend who heard from a friend and some stuff could be lost in translation.

I was going to buy a freezer for the basement but apparently those are all sold out too.

I was going to buy a freezer for the basement but apparently those are all sold out too.

Yeah, we got one and definitely comes in handy.

We have more food in the house than we've ever had before. Unfortunately more snacks also and I'm losing the waist battle.

There's a local Texas Roadhouse near us that is selling uncooked steaks individually for between $7 and $10 (filet). We got 4 steaks (ribeyes and filets) for around $35. They are pretty high quality and I think we may continue to do that every couple weeks if quality meat is harder to come by in stores (plus it helps keep them in business). We've stocked up on ground turkey, some ground beef and diced chicken - but it's been hard to find a good steak and this filled that void.

One sneaky hot seller here have been stuff like paint, garden tools and soil (up like 500%)


Take this FWIW.

Wife received a text message from BIL who talked to a FDA friend. Friend said that cases of coronavirus is rising among the food processors and truckers. Friend said there will likely be shortages of vegetables and meat in the coming weeks.

Wife went to Costco, said there is a 30 min line outside and Costco is limiting no. of people in the store. She is going to Target/Walmart instead to buy meats we can freeze, frozen vegetables and top off the fresh vegetables.

Heard from a friend who heard from a friend and some stuff could be lost in translation.

And that's the reason why there are shortages ;)

Not saying there aren't issues in production/delivery but seeing some of the increases here (like an utterly insane 2500 % for canned goods or 150% increase on pasta) that'd be a loooot of extra man hours to make up for that.

Scored a pack of Toiletpaper for my neighbours today though, so i take this as a good sign ;)

Yep. Everybody will be better off if everyone doesn't try to buy enough for two months (not saying people here are doing that, just in general). Where I'm at, supply of stuff is recovering pretty well. Bread and eggs were hard to come by two weeks ago, not anymore. TP is around occasionally, and potatoes that there was an initial run on. Flour, rice still a bit sketchy and a lot of things are lower than usual, but what I see is supply trending in the right direction.

Folks who think that the media is pushing this as "fake news" to harm the president. That he's "brainwashing" the President into not taking the actions needed. That he's part of the "Deep State".

I shit you not.

The President said he was part of the deep state during a press conference a week ago. Not surprised his followers would believe that.

Yeah, we got one and definitely comes in handy.

We have more food in the house than we've ever had before. Unfortunately more snacks also and I'm losing the waist battle.

Yeah I'd claim it was for frozen veggies and meat but it would just end up filled with frozen pizzas and crap.

For what it's worth, one of my brothers works as a scientist for a major food company. They own one of the biggest frozen food companies in the world (you would know their name). He said that the plants have been working like normal so far. Maybe that will change though.

The CDC is located in Georgia.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Georgia Gov. Kemp says he just recently learned asymptomatic people could transmit coronavirus: &quot;We didn't know that until the last 24 hours.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/rMl57N4IY8">https://t.co/rMl57N4IY8</a></p>&mdash; NBC News (@NBCNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1245752884375031808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

The 1 million confirmed cases milestone has been reached.

This is kind of an interesting article on the toilet paper shortage. It's not just about hoarding, it's about people being home more. So there is less commercial toilet paper being sold and more consumer. Makes sense that schools, offices, and so on would not need as much. Also mentions food too. Never really think about the consequences of people spending all their time at home means a huge shift in how certain products are distributed.

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

The CDC is located in Georgia.

I don't … I can't even. I think this is clearly a lie, but it's a really stupid one. At this point just freaking come out and say what everyone knows already; we waited because we were afraid of the economic impact. Apologize for making the wrong choice and move on.

Yeah, the commercial side makes sense. I have to go into an isolated part of my work (maybe 4 people there) about once every 2 weeks. And there is huge stockpile of TP (knowing I could swipe a couple rolls there is one reason I haven't freaked out about the shortage at stores). I do think many people are hoarding it (many for resale at higher margins). You can find a ton for much higher prices on Ebay. My bet is a bunch of people lineup at 5 AM every morning to buy their roll from 4-5 places and sell it during this. Plus, you have the normal people freaking out and buying in bulk (it's not like TP goes bad).

I really think we will see more restaurants acting as high end meat markets and produce stores in the coming week. I've seen places like Z-Tejas offer a collection of pasta, produce and other items for like $100. Some steak places are selling uncooked meats directly and so forth. It's a good way for them to get a little money and leverage their wholesale connections.

The CDC is located <a>in Georgia.</a> less than 15 minutes from the Georgia Governor's Estate.

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The CDC is located in Georgia.

Pretty sure this is fake news. It got blown up in TWD second season (ah, those early seasons were fun!).

I just wanted to check because I know the CDC is super close to me (I go to restaurants across the street from it a bunch) - and I live 4.3miles from the CDC. When I went to Emory Law, my 1L parking was the parking lot that looked over the CDC.

Does this mean Kemp takes over for Trump as the new Bagdad Bob?

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/757/139/a4a.jpg

Ohio has renewed their stay at home order until May 1st.

Businesses are now suppose to set limits on how many customers are allowed in their store at any given time.

I'm on my way to EUH shortly, I'll check at the CDC first.

It should come as no surprise that Kemp waited, a few weeks ago he said he was only following the guidelines of Donald Trump himself.

Does this mean Kemp takes over for Trump as the new Bagdad Bob?


Oh com'on. Kemp is no where close to Bagdad Bob. He is one of a kind.

Trump may reach that level but he doesn't have the humorous entertainment value of Bagdad Bob.

Stubhub used to heavily promote it's "FanProtect Guarantee", which promised refunds on purchases if the event was cancelled or valid tickets weren't delivered. They've decided now that they can't do that anymore. So if you bought your tickets when that guarantee was in effect, you only get a Stubhub credit, which of course, isn't a particularly enticing thing right now.

I know Stubhub is just kind fucked now (and they just were acquired by a new buyer in February, oops!), but this is a lot of money to hold hostage.

The NBA, NHL, and MLB postponing rather than cancelling games adds to the complications. I have some NHL tickets I bought that I know I'll never see a penny from Stubhub for. Not the end of the world, it is what it is. I'm trying to decide if a chargeback is appropriate, and what the right timing for that would be. I understand we're all in this together, and I'm OK with taking my fair share of financial loss as a result of a global pandemic, but, letting me eat the entire $400 doesn't seem right either. And this is kind of what credit card warranties/consumer protection are for. (particularly when I bought the tickets under a promise of a refund if the event was cancelled). But I guess it's prudent to wait for the NHL to cancel the season, or until the chargeback time limit is counting down.

What this is going to do to small businesses is sad. Especially retail stores that are required to close. The CARES Act has done jack shit so far and the SBA doesn't have the resources to handle this. I'm sure Boeing will get their bailout though without a problem.

https://gen.medium.com/what-its-like-to-watch-your-business-fail-9547de64f5e5

Ohio has renewed their stay at home order until May 1st.

Businesses are now suppose to set limits on how many customers are allowed in their store at any given time.

I have seen that stores in certain states are doing this and my thought is how about a way to create mass panic and hysteria. Plus how is the line waiting to get in not the worst possible way to contain the spread? Oh yeah people are going to see the line and just go home not go into the store and over buy right?

i saw this online:

"There's a kernel of truth to what Kemp said about asymptomatic spreading, though he did a poor job explaining it.

It's old news that COVID-19 could spread without symptoms, but it's very recently that there's growing scientific support behind the idea that a huge portion of cases may have come from asymptomatic shedding. That's unusual compared to similar viruses.

Even the CDC is starting to re-evaluate recommendations (e.g., should the general public wear masks when not sick) because they weren't expecting these carriers to be this big of a problem just a couple weeks ago."Not really, that's something the WHO tried to make us all aware of back in February, when still only China was hit hard.

Fauci was on a MSNBC snippet (not sure when the interview/speech was) and said our trajectory is the same as Italy's "after correcting for population".

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

They also showed Pence speaking to his in his Pence way. Fauci was much more plain spoken and direct.

I saw Pence had said yesterday "We're on the Italy trajectory"

Still no Stay at Home order in Missouri.

Governor said tomorrow he would have ne information on what the next step is.

Said the state is so diverse it is hard to give a blanket order. Because what is an essential business in an urban area is different than a rural area.

Guess he has never been to Florida or New York or any other state with a big metro area.

When he lies he starts stammering a little and his voice gets a little more slurry.

Anyone watching videos of Spring Break saw that we were on the Italy trajectory . . . :-(

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

Wait a week or two. The projections are staggering. And if anything, our death counts have been coming in above the projections.

Fauci was on a MSNBC snippet (not sure when the interview/speech was) and said our trajectory is the same as Italy's "after correcting for population".

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

I still don't think we are. Fauci is probably just trying not to get bogged down in details and emphasizing the seriousness.

On March 19, Italy reached the point of having a confirmed case per 20,000 people. At that point their death rate - and again we know they have people dying at home without being counted in it so it was really higher - was 56.3 per million population. The USA reached that same level of confirmed cases on March 30-31, and even a few days later our death rate is not even a third of what Italy's was then.

Differences in testing and all that but we know Italy got behind on testing early due to the hospitals being overwhelmed etc. It's still getting worse here, it's going to continue to get worse, but we're not Italy.

On the other hand, unpleasant as it is, NYC and other areas need to stop pretending the issue of rationing care will somehow go away or that we're magically going to not run out of ventilators anywhere and issue guidelines. From what I've read, the state doesn't want to go anywhere near it, hospitals are waiting on guidance from the state, and meanwhile doctors and ER staff are asking for direction because they need to prepared and communicate this stuff. Feels to me like the latest Ostrich Brigade moment with nobody stepping up to say what has to be said.

And also just noticed … France reporting 1355 deaths so far today. Population-adjusted, that's more today than the entire count in the US outbreak.

:(

My guess is it's the production. I would assume cameramen, video editing truck, announcers, security etc would be closer together than the two players. Agree though that sports would be great for morale and a huge boom for whatever league starts televising. (I haven't watched tennis in years but am so starved for sports I would probably watch tennis or golf)

I have a feeling that the NBA jump started the getting off our butts and doing something and they will probably lead the way in getting back to televising games etc.

NBA, or NHL are not coming back. They are going stick a fork in the seasons and leave them for dead. It is just not worth it at this point. MLB is iffy and sounds like even the NFL might eventually cancel if as expected the virus does not disappear by fall and instead comes back strong in October.

And also just noticed … France reporting 1355 deaths so far today. Population-adjusted, that's more today than the entire count in the US outbreak.

:(

They added a provisional count of deaths so far in retirement/care facilities that never were hospitalised and added them to todays total, 884 extra.
Up until now they only reported deaths in hospitals and that number for today was similar to yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-toll/frances-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-to-nearly-5400-as-nursing-homes-included-idUSKBN21K31I

Last I read the SECDEF and SECNAV were both saying the right things but it might have changed. It is the same situation as the hospitals, their staff and the PPE. I highly doubt that the Captain only wrote that one letter.

And the Captain is being relieved from duty for releasing the letter to the media.

He's a hero and should be a lesson to others in the Navy.

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable <a href="https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P">https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P</a></p>&mdash; POLITICO (@politico) <a href="https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245716389433937921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

</code></samp><samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times <a href="https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p">https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p</a></p>&mdash; Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) <a href="https://twitter.com/MadBastardsAll/status/1245751770644656128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
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Up until now they only reported deaths in hospitals and that number for today was similar to yesterday.

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. I knew they weren't counting the other deaths previously, but not that they were going to add them in a lump sum.

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable <a href="https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P">https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P</a></p>&mdash; POLITICO (@politico) <a href="https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245716389433937921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

</code></samp><samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times <a href="https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p">https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p</a></p>&mdash; Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) <a href="https://twitter.com/MadBastardsAll/status/1245751770644656128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
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It's certainly devastating for anyone in this situation and I don't want to minimize that in any way... but I wonder if we're going to see an almost unprecedented amount of disruption and new small businesses spring up after this due to the sheer amount of opportunity out there.

That seems just as likely to me as big corporations being the only thing left to fill the gap to play in all of these spaces. There will certainly be less competition in some of the areas big companies are the leaders in today.

Yep. Everybody will be better off if everyone doesn't try to buy enough for two months (not saying people here are doing that, just in general). Where I'm at, supply of stuff is recovering pretty well. Bread and eggs were hard to come by two weeks ago, not anymore. TP is around occasionally, and potatoes that there was an initial run on. Flour, rice still a bit sketchy and a lot of things are lower than usual, but what I see is supply trending in the right direction.

I was out shopping yesterday for my extended “family”. I went to Costco first and got there right before the senior citizens hour was up. There was that line outside. We waited probably ten minutes before they let us in. Within 100 feet of of the door, there were two employees standing in front of 8 pallets of toilet paper. Each package contained 30 rolls and you could get one. Just about everything I was looking for was available and most things had options to choose from. Only posted limit I saw was for poultry. Of course there was no hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes etc. To everyone’s credit, most people were not being ridiculous when it came to quantities of most items. Most people had what I would consider normal amount of those items that have been critically short. I went to Winn Dixie next and it was about the same.

From what I hear about the local Publix, they are struggling to keep up. It is not surprising given it is the only food store within ten minutes of about 8-10 subdivisions.

One sneaky hot seller here have been stuff like paint, garden tools and soil (up like 500%)




And that's the reason why there are shortages ;)

Not saying there aren't issues in production/delivery but seeing some of the increases here (like an utterly insane 2500 % for canned goods or 150% increase on pasta) that'd be a loooot of extra man hours to make up for that.

I made myself a pasta sauce today from a base i bought when I was in Italy last year, and had the bizarre thought I was being extravagant using tinned tomatoes and planning to use pasta for 6-8 days over the next couple of weeks! It’s all supply and demand, but pasta and tinned tomatoes are suddenly luxury goods in some ways

Scored a pack of Toiletpaper for my neighbours today though, so i take this as a good sign ;)

Dola: I’ve never paid attention to how long a roll lasts until now - turns out it’s nearly two weeks. Panic over, relax, which ironically enough means a toilet roll lasts slightly shorter than I’d thought :D

Stubhub used to heavily promote it's "FanProtect Guarantee", which promised refunds on purchases if the event was cancelled or valid tickets weren't delivered. They've decided now that they can't do that anymore. So if you bought your tickets when that guarantee was in effect, you only get a Stubhub credit, which of course, isn't a particularly enticing thing right now.

I know Stubhub is just kind fucked now (and they just were acquired by a new buyer in February, oops!), but this is a lot of money to hold hostage.

The NBA, NHL, and MLB postponing rather than cancelling games adds to the complications. I have some NHL tickets I bought that I know I'll never see a penny from Stubhub for. Not the end of the world, it is what it is. I'm trying to decide if a chargeback is appropriate, and what the right timing for that would be. I understand we're all in this together, and I'm OK with taking my fair share of financial loss as a result of a global pandemic, but, letting me eat the entire $400 doesn't seem right either. And this is kind of what credit card warranties/consumer protection are for. (particularly when I bought the tickets under a promise of a refund if the event was cancelled). But I guess it's prudent to wait for the NHL to cancel the season, or until the chargeback time limit is counting down.

Double dola: If scalpers are a casualty of this, excuse me if don’t shed too many tears

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable <a href="https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P">https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P</a></p>&mdash; POLITICO (@politico) <a href="https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245716389433937921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

</code></samp><samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times <a href="https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p">https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p</a></p>&mdash; Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) <a href="https://twitter.com/MadBastardsAll/status/1245751770644656128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"></code></samp>

Triple (!) dola: Unfortunately that seems to be the case here too - the promised easy access is not quite as simple as promised

And the Captain is being relieved from duty for releasing the letter to the media.

He's a hero and should be a lesson to others in the Navy.

If only it was this simple.

Modly said Crozier was relieved because he went outside the chain of command and sent his memo over an unsecured system adding to the chances it could be leaked.

They are not saying he leaked it. They are saying by not sending it on a classified system, he created the circumstance that it could be leaked. They are also saying that he should have went to his boss and not his boss’s boss.

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

The strains are the same. The virus hasn't mutated much.

Italy got bad because it overwhelmed their health system. That's when the deaths start piling up. When you run out of beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. We have no idea if that will happen here. If New York keeps adding more patients and runs out of that stuff, the death toll soars.

I take a middle ground on that. I think it's the same strain, but I think Italy is more than it overwhelming their system, though that did have a major effect. There's cultural impacts too such as our population being more spread out, it being more prevalent for them to have elderly living with others, the fact that their population is just older on the whole, etc.

I don't think there's any question that some element of the shortages-induced deaths are coming here though. New York is close. Atlanta is close. New Orleans appears to be on the way, and Detroit probably not too far behind.

Yeah, it's kind of up in the air. I guess that's why models vary so much.

We have an elderly population too and not exactly the healthiest of countries. We also have (and will have a ton more) people without health insurance. Are those people going to get tested and eat a giant bill? Or stay and home and try to ride it out? Will those people have access to drugs that can help with the virus? Probably not.

We have our own set of issues and will see how they play out.

If only it was this simple.



They are not saying he leaked it. They are saying by not sending it on a classified system, he created the circumstance that it could be leaked. They are also saying that he should have went to his boss and not his boss’s boss.

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

The strains are the same. The virus hasn't mutated much.
It does seem to mutate much slower, but they've already found 7+ strains in the past week or so. We probably won't know until later, but it is a possibility that the version in southern Europe is more deadly than the one we have here.

Italy got bad because it overwhelmed their health system. That's when the deaths start piling up. When you run out of beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. We have no idea if that will happen here. If New York keeps adding more patients and runs out of that stuff, the death toll soars.
Italy's lifestyle and delay in responding also played a part. They are packed in together and often younger people live with older people. Add in they didn't start taking real steps until it had ravaged their country and you see why they are much different, IMO. New York is the closest because of mass transit and the number of people in a small area, so they will get hit the worst. But there are no indications it will be close to Italy's numbers.

Again, April will probably be the toughest month as the people that got it in March (before social distancing really took hold) and didn't seek immediate medical attention get worse. Hospitals will probably hit a high point in late April/early May - but there is no rational reason to expect the US to have anything comparable to Italy in two months. The geography, lifestyle and speed at which we started distancing plays a major factor here. Italy has 532 people per square mile, the US has 93. By dumb luck and geographical distance from each other, we would never be hit as hard at Italy.

To get a scope on how bad unemployment is.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The mammoth US unemployment claims in their historical context. <a href="https://t.co/UNDwhBMpZt">pic.twitter.com/UNDwhBMpZt</a></p>&mdash; Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) <a href="https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1245787069076602880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

To get a scope on how bad unemployment is.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The mammoth US unemployment claims in their historical context. <a href="https://t.co/UNDwhBMpZt">pic.twitter.com/UNDwhBMpZt</a></p>&mdash; Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) <a href="https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1245787069076602880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
It's crazy and we've never seen anything like it. I don't know what the answer is (outside of more socialistic policies - we need them for this summer), but there is no way we can keep this up for more than a few months.

I take a middle ground on that. I think it's the same strain, but I think Italy is more than it overwhelming their system, though that did have a major effect. There's cultural impacts too such as our population being more spread out, it being more prevalent for them to have elderly living with others, the fact that their population is just older on the whole, etc.

I don't think there's any question that some element of the shortages-induced deaths are coming here though. New York is close. Atlanta is close. New Orleans appears to be on the way, and Detroit probably not too far behind.

And Dr Birx just said we are not flattening the curve still.

We are not flattening the curve and not a damn thing will be done about it. Too many people not taking this seriously. More will die and it will take longer to get back to normal. If they can't get people to stay 6 feet apart they won't get them to wear masks.

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

I don't think it's a tough call at all. This admin pardons war criminals while this Captain gets canned because he embarrassed his superiors in order to save his crew.

We are not flattening the curve and not a damn thing will be done about it. Too many people not taking this seriously. More will die and it will take longer to get back to normal. If they can't get people to stay 6 feet apart they won't get them to wear masks.

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

I agree. The red states are going to get overrun. The population down there likely didn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Some probably still don't take it seriously.

edited for lack of tact

All we can do is practice social distancing, stay home as much as possible, wears masks where possible and implore the government to do more to help small businesses and people out of work.

We will certainly know a lot more in a month - but stay home and try to avoid contact as much as possible until then.

Italy had under 50 deaths the day they put in place a much stricter lockdown than even New York, saying the us reacted faster seems a bit of a stretch ...
The 1000 deaths right now in the US were part of a much smaller 'pool' of infected people than the deaths that will occur in a week or 2 :( After that it will be reasonable to take stock (at least for some areas) but right now there is no indication the US is remotely at the peak of the curve. Even Italy got from 50 to 900 in fits and spurts with the ocasional decrease thrown in.

I am sure you will not see remotely similar per capita numbers (would be 5k) , but it will go up.

Same goes for Germany as well, it just is not possible right now to reliably prevent spread in hospitals and care facilities without rapid testing and antibody tests, neither of which is available in numbers yet.

They are statistically poorer, fatter, and dumber.

Dad-gum!

I'll give you poorer and fatter but dumber? I like to see your reference, below is mine.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/we-compared-average-iq-score-in-all-50-states-results-are-eye-opening.html

Nevertheless, we own football and proud patriots with 40-44% of the military.

Small sample size but of the patients that 'finished' their time on ventilators in Germany to date 34% died and 66% recovered ... That number will obviously shift for the better as most deaths while on one occur quickly and recovery takes a long time.

Two new studies at the 2 first 'hotspots' in Germany suggest that transmission via surfaces is really pretty much non-existent btw and more of a freak-accident than any real factor.

Aside from tracking the contacts and transmission networks* they also extensively tested all imaginable surfaces in houses with multiple currently infected people and even there could not detect reproducing/viable virus even on door handle or remote controlls. You'd really need someone to literally sneeze on a surface, touch it immediately after and then touch your face also pretty much immediately.

* In one case pretty much pinpointing it to a guy turning around in the Cafeteria and asking another to pass the salt. The majority of transmissions did occur during extended personal contact though, be it at work, private or public events. Most early cases in one Hotspot could be traced to a single carnival event.

StackPath (https://www.asumag.com/research/top-10s/article/21122683/the-least-educated-states-in-the-usa)

I see, I'll take mine reported by the Washingon Post vs yours reported by WalletHub (?).

I see, I'll take mine reported by the Washingon Post vs yours reported by WalletHub (?).

FFS dude, here are the bottom 12 of your source

Florida 98.4
South Carolina 98.4
Georgia 98
Tennessee 97.7
Arkansas 97.5
Arizona 97.4
Nevada 96.5
Alabama 95.7
New Mexico 95.7
Hawaii 95.6
California 95.5
Louisiana 95.3
Mississippi 94.2

8/12 in the south. Not really sure how you disproved anything

And Dr Birx just said we are not flattening the curve still.

I don't know the context in which she said it, but it's obvious we are flattening the curve at least to some degree. There's no way that all the shutdown orders, all the unemployed people not working etc. is having no effect on the spread. You can't have that many people who would otherwhise be in close proximity to each other for several hours a day now almost completely separated and not flatten the curve.

How is CNBC? Good enough for you?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/the-10-most-and-least-educated-states-in-2018.html

"not flattening" is of course wrong, but it is definitely not flattened enough yet. And that naturally takes time. This is like turning an Oil tanker.


One more thing:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lol Fox invited on the wrong one. Good. <a href="https://t.co/L2eIW3dfRr">pic.twitter.com/L2eIW3dfRr</a></p>&mdash; Adam wants to flatten the curve (@aalali44) <a href="https://twitter.com/aalali44/status/1245546863102746624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That test by Abbott was presented as if it was going to solve testing problems, it does not. There is no magic wand, whatever improvements come will have to come from a variety of fronts.

As an aside, i doubt they'll invite him again ;)

How is CNBC? Good enough for you?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/the-10-most-and-least-educated-states-in-2018.html

Uh no. The source is still WalletHub (?). WTF is WalletHub and why are they reputable?

Show me a study from a reputable source that actually says the South is dumber?


BTW - if you go by population, I think my link shows that CA as #47 on the IQ list has less-than-stellar-smart-people than the smaller southern states.

Italy had under 50 deaths the day they put in place a much stricter lockdown than even New York, saying the us reacted faster seems a bit of a stretch ...
The 1000 deaths right now in the US were part of a much smaller 'pool' of infected people than the deaths that will occur in a week or 2 :( After that it will be reasonable to take stock (at least for some areas) but right now there is no indication the US is remotely at the peak of the curve. Even Italy got from 50 to 900 in fits and spurts with the ocasional decrease thrown in.
March 9th is when they expanded past Lombardy to cover Northern Italy. At that point, they had 463 deaths and over 9K recorded cases. On March 20, NY announced its shelter in place with 43 deaths and around 5,500 cases. On the day it began (3/22), they had 99 deaths. Heck, there were less than 450 recorded deaths in the entire US when most of the big cities started their shelter in place in the US (3/22). Factor in the reasons above about a more spread out country with less mass transit, fewer older and young living together, etc and there is reason to think the US won't be nearly as bad as Italy.

It's going to get worse in the US, but hospitals weren't being flooded in mass like in Spain/Italy when we started our measures. We also had the benefit of Italy as a warning (something Italy didn't have on their end).

Whatever dude. Not really worth the argument. If you want to think people in Miss, Alabama, KY, and Louisiana are geniuses so be it.

I agree. The red states are going to get overrun. The population down there likely didn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Some probably still don't take it seriously. They are statistically poorer, fatter, and dumber. Bad combination for something like this.

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/13/actually-mr-trump-iowa-is-one-of-the-smartest-states-in-the-union/

https://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1143879660?profile=original

Whatever dude. Not really worth the argument. If you want to think people in Miss, Alabama, KY, and Louisiana are geniuses so be it.

Fine with me because I would then have delved into how IQ, SAT, ACT, schooling are not fair to poor and colored, and brought up how your statement was discriminatory, bigoted, and (almost) non-ADL racist.

I'd like to point out that the entire range of the IQ list from top to bottom is less than 10 points. That's just over half of a standard deviation. It still makes a difference, but we aren't talking about the difference between brilliance and idiocy here. It's a fairly small overall gap.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/13/actually-mr-trump-iowa-is-one-of-the-smartest-states-in-the-union/

https://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1143879660?profile=original

See above on non-ADL racist.

Okay, can we take this to another thread. Although non-political, I think we can all agree this discussion does not belong here.

Sorry for my participation.

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

How's LR doing? I remember McCain Mall and Slick Willy's family pool hall from a while ago.

March 9th is when they expanded past Lombardy to cover Northern Italy. At that point, they had 463 deaths and over 9K recorded cases. On March 20, NY announced its shelter in place with 43 deaths and around 5,500 cases. On the day it began (3/22), they had 99 deaths. Heck, there were less than 450 recorded deaths in the entire US when most of the big cities started their shelter in place in the US (3/22). Factor in the reasons above about a more spread out country with less mass transit, fewer older and young living together, etc and there is reason to think the US won't be nearly as bad as Italy.

It's going to get worse in the US, but hospitals weren't being flooded in mass like in Spain/Italy when we started our measures. We also had the benefit of Italy as a warning (something Italy didn't have on their end).


1) I was referring to daily deaths, should have clarified. An yeah, it was a day later than i thought .
2) i believe Italys death numbers in the early phase a lot more than New York or the US in general (Italy did not test a ton, but consistently a while earlier). Due to only just having started seriously testing i expect there to have been a lot of "Pneumonia" deaths that were really Covid19, as some in here pointed out based on County data.

And again, i don't think it will get close to those numbers. But it is equally unlikely to stay close to the numbers right now. Would gladly be wrong.

How's LR doing? I remember McCain Mall and Slick Willy's family pool hall from a while ago.

I actually live in MS now just outside of Memphis. Haven’t updated my profile in awhile and still have my Xbox 360 gamer tag as my signature.

Things here are going ok. In Memphis, they are being proactive and opening up some temp hospitals. It’s about to get hot and humid which I hope slows down the spread. But I haven’t seen any hard evidence of that yet.

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

I truly apologize for being overly blunt. It completely did come off as arrogant.

As for my wife just trying to share info from a trusted and reliable source. I have also referenced several times a good friend who is a firefighter. I guess I just like to share peoples credentials prior to sharing their information.

Again, forgive me for my bluntness.

I actually live in MS now just outside of Memphis. Haven’t updated my profile in awhile and still have my Xbox 360 gamer tag as my signature.

Things here are going ok. In Memphis, they are being proactive and opening up some temp hospitals. It’s about to get hot and humid which I hope slows down the spread. But I haven’t seen any hard evidence of that yet.

I've been to Memphis. Never went to Graceland (yuck) but liked downtown area (Rendezvous BBQ!), the duck hotel, and the Pyramid (Bass Pro Shop).

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff


I honestly think we could hit 10,000 a day or more before too long.

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

If the facts are as it is being reported then yes he broke the chain of command. The problem for me is the details that are being reported read like someone getting a speeding ticket for driving 57 in 55 mph zone

I am skeptical.

This is disturbing.


On March 8 air travel was down 15% year over year.


On March 31 air travel was down 93% year over year.

IA coworker's mom was given a year max to live due to stage 4 cancer back around Christmas. She got COVID-19 a week or so ago and will likely pass any time now. So the COVID certainly made her death that much worse but is her death cancer or COVID? I don't have an answer, don't know the answer. Certainly don't think every death is this situation but it sure seems like a lot of the deaths in older people were very unhealthy people.

Top headline in St. Louis news. Not that her death isn't tragic to her family or that she never touched a lot of lives but sorry it's just so fucking disingenuous of the news. They wouldnt have even covered her death had she died of cancer back in March. Exploitation at its worst.

Eureka High School guidance counselor dies from COVID-19 | ksdk.com
Coronavirus St. Louis County: Eureka HS guidance counselor dies | ksdk.com (https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/eureka-high-school-guidance-counselor-sandy-kearney-dies-coronavirus/63-678f7ce9-2c16-4841-8f8f-5637d8025635)

I was out shopping yesterday for my extended “family”. I went to Costco first and got there right before the senior citizens hour was up. There was that line outside. We waited probably ten minutes before they let us in. Within 100 feet of of the door, there were two employees standing in front of 8 pallets of toilet paper. Each package contained 30 rolls and you could get one. Just about everything I was looking for was available and most things had options to choose from. Only posted limit I saw was for poultry. Of course there was no hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes etc. To everyone’s credit, most people were not being ridiculous when it came to quantities of most items. Most people had what I would consider normal amount of those items that have been critically short. I went to Winn Dixie next and it was about the same.

From what I hear about the local Publix, they are struggling to keep up. It is not surprising given it is the only food store within ten minutes of about 8-10 subdivisions.

Side note about toilet paper (not related to your post above, just using it as a jumping off point): https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

While it's kindof fun (albeit mean spirited) to do the whole "point and laugh at TP hoarders" thing that's pretty popular right now, it's not necessarily what's going on. Because people are at home, they're using a lot more consumer toilet paper and not commercial toilet paper so the supply chains are all out of whack.

SI

(warning: totally off topic)



I've been to Memphis. Never went to Graceland (yuck) but liked downtown area (Rendezvous BBQ!), the duck hotel, and the Pyramid (Bass Pro Shop).


Memphis is a sneaky good tourist city. We went to Graceland - but it's more a museum to us than a pilgrimage for the older folks who lived it. Tons of other interesting music stuff and I'm not a big music person: Sun, Stax, Beale Street, Rock and Soul Museum (tho it covers a lot of what you get at Sun and Stax), and Gibson Guitar factory tour to name a few things we did. The National Civil Rights Museum is great.The ducks were fun, the Pink Palace was good local goofy fun, and the Mud Island River Park was good (since the weather was good).



Legit BBQ scene, too, and that's coming from a native Texan who went to school near Kansas City. I love anywhere that can do good dry ribs and Central was really legit.


SI

Japan is probably hosed too.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/business/japan-coronavirus-work-lockdown-guilt-hnk-intl/index.html
While Tokyo's governor Yuriko Koike has urged the city's 13.5 million residents to telework where possible until April 12, and major Japanese companies such as Honda, Toyota and Nissan have asked staff to work from home, many employees are still commuting into the capital, where subway trains are busy during rush hour.

It's a similar story all across Japan, where about 80% of companies do not have the ability to let their employees telework, according to 2019 government data.
And with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week declining to declare a state of emergency, which would put pressure on businesses to enforce social distancing, companies can still legally operate from their offices.
:
:
Many employees don't have laptops they can take home, Kopp said, and companies do not have VPNs or remote access to their servers, meaning things can only be accessed in person at the office.

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

I know the stats say individual gun ownership is going down and the increased gun sales are because of people buying multiple weapons. I do wonder how many actual new gun owners will come out of this pandemic.

Don't need to buy anymore but still check guns and ammo sites here and there. There is no doubt there is a run on them.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/us/fbi-gun-sale-background-checks-coronavirus/index.html
The new figures indicate 3.7 million gun purchase background checks were conducted in the month of March alone, marking the greatest number of background checks conducted in a single month since the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) was launched in 1998.

By far, the state leading in federal firearm background checks numbers for the month of March was Illinois -- with over half a million background checks conducted -- followed by Texas, Kentucky, Florida, and California.

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

AL has not been on lock-down. Schools are closed but no stay-at-home or like order.

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

Bullshit. You either knew this list was not true and lied or you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about and listed a bunch of random states without spending 5 minutes to verify if you were right.

AL has not gone on lockdown.
MS goes on lockdown 4/3.
TN order took effect 4/2.
NC went on lockdown on 3/30
SC is still not on lockdown.
VA went on lockdown 3/30

I'll help you with the math. 2 weeks ago would be 3/19.

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2020/04/02/16/screen-shot-2020-04-02-at-16.00.44.v1.jpg?width=668

FWIW

(warning: totally off topic)






Memphis is a sneaky good tourist city. We went to Graceland - but it's more a museum to us than a pilgrimage for the older folks who lived it. Tons of other interesting music stuff and I'm not a big music person: Sun, Stax, Beale Street, Rock and Soul Museum (tho it covers a lot of what you get at Sun and Stax), and Gibson Guitar factory tour to name a few things we did. The National Civil Rights Museum is great.The ducks were fun, the Pink Palace was good local goofy fun, and the Mud Island River Park was good (since the weather was good).



Legit BBQ scene, too, and that's coming from a native Texan who went to school near Kansas City. I love anywhere that can do good dry ribs and Central was really legit.


SI

I love Memphis, but it’s my home so I am probably biased.

Central is legit but we have better options.

This is disturbing.

On March 8 air travel was down 15% year over year.

On March 31 air travel was down 93% year over year.

Sorry to hear this. I know it's stressing you out. Travel & hospitality are probably the hardest hit right now.

What's the pilots' union telling you guys?

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

MSNBC has been running short bios on some of the people who died. One show had 3 of them at the last part of the hour.

I thought it was done well and it would help bring some closure for the families.

Sorry to hear this. I know it's stressing you out. Travel & hospitality are probably the hardest hit right now.

What's the pilots' union telling you guys?

A little early to call, but furloughs starting in October. The company only needs 5000 guys for the April schedule. We have close to 13000. Im about 9500. I'd be on the street if that reality happens.

A little early to call, but furloughs starting in October. The company only needs 5000 guys for the April schedule. We have close to 13000. Im about 9500. I'd be on the street if that reality happens.

When you get furloughed, does that mean the airline will give you first dibs (in order of seniority) when they start to re-hire or no gaurantees?

They have to call everyone back and offer a class before they can hire 1 person off the street in that case. All seniority is maintained.

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

Worldometer says 969. Still a lot .

They have to call everyone back and offer a class before they can hire 1 person off the street in that case. All seniority is maintained.

That is something at least. Best wishes to you.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

Hopefully no paywall, there isn't for me.

The South needs to get its shit together. Though I guess that's a constant theme of the last 300 years really, so why would this be any different. I'm very pleasantly surprised by my area in Trumptown, Indiana.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

Hopefully no paywall, there isn't for me.

The South needs to get its shit together. Though I guess that's a constant theme of the last 300 years really, so why would this be any different. I'm very pleasantly surprised by my area in Trumptown, Indiana.

Times has excluded Corona News from their paywall i think and they have a very informative newsletter on it (think theres a link below most articles)

And yes, that article and its graphics are pretty good to illustrate some of the effects

The Bergamo 'province' within Lomdardy registered 5400 deaths in March, of which 2060 were diagnosed and listed as Covid. Normally only around 900 die in March. That still leaves a gap of over 2400 after official Covid19 deaths are accounted for.

https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/premium/Cronaca/coronavirus-il-numero-reale-dei-decessiin-bergamasca-4500-in-un-mese_1347415_11/

If anybody is interested, the german Institute tasked with coordinating testing etc seems to have started to publish their daily report in english as well:

Menupage: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Aktueller Situationsbericht des Robert Koch-Instituts zu COVID-19 (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html)

Todays report: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-02-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

They basically have a standard of stuff that is always published but also choose different peripheral data each day to add, which is often extremely interesting.

F.e. today they show how the measurements also pretty much stopped the Influenza wave dead in it's track as a sideeffect and that a little less than 9 % of targeted tests for Covid 19 come back positive and almost no tests from the "sentinel network" (essentially a longstanding rotating spread of doctors offices that take swaps from patients with respiratory symptoms, even light ones, that get tested for every known virus causing them) show positive for SarsCov2.

A similar study as to mobility in March for Germany but concentrating more on frequented places (Retail, Parks, Public transit etc) rather than travelled distance:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_DE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf


Fascinating that even grocery stores were 50% less frequented. Parks only 50% as well, but less surprising since they use January/February as a baseline where naturally already very few people frequented parks (especially since the weather here sucked)

Guilford County, NC is #4 on the list that Radii posted, and it's where I live. Schools and non-essential businesses here have been closed for 2+ weeks, and based on everything I've seen and heard since then, things have been very good here. I have an alternate explanation, though, for 3 miles being the average here: the weather. It has been GORGEOUS (highs upper 60s/low 70s with low humidity,) and the walking/running/biking trails are full, but--at least when I've been there--properly socially distanced. I know I've driven farther than that (more like 7 miles one-way) probably 2/3 of the days since school closed on 3/14, simply to ride bikes with my daughter in one of the parks. I'm fairly certain I haven't come within even 12 feet of anyone other than her on any of those rides. (The roads within the park are two cars wide, but cars aren't allowed in the park now, so walkers and riders can have room.) The number of walkers/riders wearing masks of some sort has increased *dramatically* this week as well, fwiw, from maybe 2% last week, to more than 30% today.


It's also worth nothing that there have been ZERO kids playing on the playgrounds at the park we are frequenting. (All public playgrounds are officially closed, but there's no physical barrier preventing parents from taking their kids there.)



We've also driven over 50 miles to go hiking three times to a popular hiking spot for Guilford County folks before it had to close because it got too popular. (There are a BUNCH of trails there, but they are much more narrow--maybe just 3 feet wide.) We went early in the morning on what would turn out to be the last day it was open. It was like 55 degrees at 7:30am when we arrived, and was in the upper 60s when we left at around 10:30. It was quite empty when we were there, but as we were leaving, there was a LONG line of cars waiting to get in. We're the closest metro area to there, so it's pretty certain that a bunch of those cars were coming from Guilford.


I can't speak for other places, but everything I've seen indicates that Guilford County is taking it quite seriously, but that we are also very much enjoying the outdoors.


Gotta run. We're about to drive 2 1/2 hours for a hike and picnic on the Blue Ridge Parkway for my older daughter's birthday. ;) (Seriously, with every other plan being cancelled, that's what she asked to do. She did the research herself to find something open and--hopefully--not heavily used. It wasn't easy. What she doesn't know is that we're having a social distance parade (https://www.facebook.com/events/145987683497438/?notif_t=plan_user_joined&notif_id=1585860944399898) for her and her sister tomorrow on their actual birthday. OH NOEZ!!! MOR CARS DRIVING AROUND GUILFORD COUNTY!!!1")

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

The (simple) model I've been using would have had us around 4M today. However, it also assumed no social distancing or other mitigations. Clearly, we've made some societal changes so we're to the point where I'm not comfortable with how accurate my numbers are anymore.

Fortunately, someone is doing that job for me:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9

Number of cases by state (graph)
https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/0*19GxUL6emgR1EqUx
According to this, more than a million people are already infected in the US, and most states would have thousands of cases. Because I used two doublings instead of three, this is likely still an underestimate.


I think his economic conclusions are flawed, but that's because he's treating this like recent pandemics, which were not nearly this large in scale, and didn't build in that we were due for a recession and the assorted bubbles that get generated from 10 years of expansion.


SI

It's also worth nothing that there have been ZERO kids playing on the playgrounds at the park we are frequenting. (All public playgrounds are officially closed, but there's no physical barrier preventing parents from taking their kids there.)

Subdivision FB page was complaining about how neighborhood kids were congregating playing basketball. My daughter is staying inside and taking it seriously, I wish other kids would too.

Subdivision FB page was complaining about how neighborhood kids were congregating playing basketball. My daughter is staying inside and taking it seriously, I wish other kids would too.
I assume there are teenager issues everywhere. I mean, the ones here are posting pics of themselves driving up to parking lots and properly socially distancing, sitting on the hoods of their cars, but who knows what’s happening off camera? There’s zero chance that dating couples in high school/college aren’t hooking up everywhere.

Our neighborhood gaggle of 7-12 year old kids are all still hanging out together

SI

I assume there are teenager issues everywhere. I mean, the ones here are posting pics of themselves driving up to parking lots and properly socially distancing, sitting on the hoods of their cars, but who knows what’s happening off camera? There’s zero chance that dating couples in high school/college aren’t hooking up everywhere.

This has been a concern of my wife and I. My son does click list at Kroger and has picked up hours during this. He has been moodier than normal so I figure that he hasn't been, but the thought has crossed our minds.

My first grader had a zoom girl scout meeting yesterday and her troop leader went through each kid and asked them what they are doing with their days. One of the girls said playing with all the kids in the neighborhood and you could immediately feel the blackballing and judging beginning.

The below is a long article. The gist is there seems to be legit concerns about the modelling/models used. However you have to start somewhere.

If it comes a lot lower or higher, I won't blame them. However they should be updating and presenting their best guess periodically (which I'm sure they'll do in the daily briefings) and the models will be continually refined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/experts-trumps-advisers-doubt-white-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/

At a news briefing Sunday, Birx explained the process this way: Her task force initially reviewed the work of 12 models. “Then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up, utilizing actual reporting of cases,” Birx said. “It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, the malaria model. And when we finished, the other group that was working in parallel — which we didn’t know about,” referring to the IHME group.

The IHME model initially estimated deaths through this summer would total 38,000 to 162,000 — a lower projection than many others and beneath the White House’s own estimate. But because of its lower figure and Birx’s comments, experts believe it to be a main source for the White House’s best-case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

Meanwhile, the White House appeared to rely on Imperial College for its worst-case scenario. That study estimated as many as 2.2 million U.S. deaths if no action was taken, 1.1 million deaths if moderate mitigation strategies were adopted, and an unspecified number if drastic measures were taken.

UK with 684 new deaths in hospitals only ... 4-7 days ago they were still hovering around 200 :(

UK with 684 new deaths in hospitals only ... 4-7 days ago they were still hovering around 200 :(

It is ramping up significantly :(

Ministers are talking about maybe reaching the peak in "a few weeks" - it does look like we might be getting towards higher daily numbers than anywhere else if that is the case

It is ramping up significantly :(

Ministers are talking about maybe reaching the peak in "a few weeks" - it does look like we might be getting towards higher daily numbers than anywhere else if that is the case

What's the take on the failed (I assume) herd mentality approach? As in it was stupid to begin with or Boris tried to do the right thing etc.

Trying an approach based on a fringe theory not at all taking into account stuff like hospital capacity ?
Herd Immunity is not the issue, it is what every country ultimately must achieve (naturally and via vaccination) but it is utterly insane to say "well, better get those 60-70% infected out of the way fast".

That extra week of delay will cost the UKs elderly population tremendously and will require the restrictions to stay in place a lot longer and more strictly than it might have beem achieved otherwise. Because you need to be at a low level first before you can think about opening up and using intense testing and individual quarantine instead.

I don’t think it was a bad idea in theory, but yeah, armed with the information we now know about the length and severity of illness some people suffer from, social distancing and restrictions on movement are clearly the better option, primarily for healthcare capacity reasons and to protect those most at risk

After all the data I've looked at, the simplest way to get "closer" to what the real numbers are is this: Do 10X on cases and 2.5X on deaths. Right now, we have 257,379 cases and 6,558 deaths. So, a ballpark would be 2.57 million cases and about 16,400 deaths (about 0.63% rate). If the testing ever ramps up, this model will need to drop the number of cases (and potentially dead). But, I would feel much better with these numbers than the ones on the website.

After all the data I've looked at, the simplest way to get "closer" to what the real numbers are is this: Do 10X on cases and 2.5X on deaths. Right now, we have 257,379 cases and 6,558 deaths. So, a ballpark would be 2.57 million cases and about 16,400 deaths (about 0.63% rate). If the testing ever ramps up, this model will need to drop the number of cases (and potentially dead). But, I would feel much better with these numbers than the ones on the website.

Not sure how you came to your conclusion but I will consider 16,400 deaths a relatively good outcome for this pandemic.

That's just to this point. As more days go on, the numbers will go up. My point is if you look at all the data and how this virus has spread in different countries, we are woefully under-reporting both cases (current and prior) and total deaths. Trying to project the future (even just through the summer) is extremely difficult. Some areas have done a much better job at social distancing (or don't have the mass transit/high density to make it more difficult). Just compare the LA/SF/Oakland area and New York City. Both have pretty decent populations, but the LA area is such more spread out, doesn't have nearly the people using mass transit and started their shelter in place before New York. So, New York city is getting hit much harder.

The link to the article that SI posted above is fantastic.



Thanks SI

This has been a concern of my wife and I. My son does click list at Kroger and has picked up hours during this. He has been moodier than normal so I figure that he hasn't been, but the thought has crossed our minds.

So this is one area we've been breaking.
Have allowed the daughter's boyfriend to come over a couple times.
His family has been on total lockdown and ours has been for the most part, my work still requires some travel but very little human interaction.

I figure allowing a +1 into our home for dinner or a movie hangout isnt greatly increasing our risks. But I also question the decision.

I know the CDC data is skeptical (at best) but this is two consecuitve "cleared" days of decline.
So that's something, maybe.

Saw a CNN interview that mentioned the US has done 1.3 million tests, but almost have of those have yet to be processed. Has anyone else heard that stat?

The (simple) model I've been using would have had us around 4M today. However, it also assumed no social distancing or other mitigations. Clearly, we've made some societal changes so we're to the point where I'm not comfortable with how accurate my numbers are anymore.

Fortunately, someone is doing that job for me:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9

Number of cases by state (graph)
https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/0*19GxUL6emgR1EqUx



I think his economic conclusions are flawed, but that's because he's treating this like recent pandemics, which were not nearly this large in scale, and didn't build in that we were due for a recession and the assorted bubbles that get generated from 10 years of expansion.


SI I've been using this one that's funded by Bill Gates. We're pretty well on track with it so far. I think it was only off by 200 deaths or so yesterday. COVID-19 (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

I've been using this one that's funded by Bill Gates. We're pretty well on track with it so far. I think it was only off by 200 deaths or so yesterday. COVID-19 (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

I've seen this one as well. Seems to update fairly often which is both good and bad. What I mean by that is somebody was hyping everyone into 150 deaths per day in Missouri just last week using this site and now it says the peak will be 22. I like that it is at least accounting for some major errors but seems like it can be misused by somebody one on either side the great "death debate".

Also it seems to think there will be 0 deaths per day for the entire country in June. This would be fantastic news but wonder how they are counting on virus eradication.

Saw a CNN interview that mentioned the US has done 1.3 million tests, but almost have of those have yet to be processed. Has anyone else heard that stat?

The tests, yes. The extreme delay is news to me ...

As an aside, the CDC on their website is only registering about 10k tests a day from private labs or am i missing sth ? I know it is a big country with tons of reporting agencies but seems weird that there is such little coordination and data collating going on. The institute in Germany manages fine despite 400k tests a week (surely less than the US but not a trifle).

I mean, what data does the task force use then, guessing Johns Hopkins ?

This is where i was looking: Testing in the U.S. | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html)

Would give some insight to compare tests/positives for some idea, ideally seen in context as to where the tests happen (test done in hospital vs other venues like drive thru).

For Germany the last 3 weeks about 7.7% have been positives, Italy sits at about 20% but getting less and less.

Just had an interesting dialog with my dad over text. He mentioned they (the government) may have to put in place stricter measures, like actively policing the lockdown or even tracking citizens. He seemed to think this was a good idea. As much as I've been saying we need to self-isolate and flatten the curve since the day I learned about the threat of overwhelming hospital systems, I don't agree with that level of enforcement at all.


What do you all think? At what point are we handing the government power that just isn't worth it? How far is too far?

I think it depends on the area. If hospitals are full in an area and it's a super high risk for people to get sick, I could see a more strict lockdown for a few weeks. But, we are so spread out as a whole and many area seem to be social distancing fairly well that I don't think it will come to that here.

Also have to consider how much law enforcement we want to use on that. I realize they probably have less to do these days, but I'd rather them break up groups of people than just look for random individuals out for no reason (I also fear that they'll track and arrest folks that are poor or black more than those who are rich or white).

Just had an interesting dialog with my dad over text. He mentioned they (the government) may have to put in place stricter measures, like actively policing the lockdown or even tracking citizens. He seemed to think this was a good idea. As much as I've been saying we need to self-isolate and flatten the curve since the day I learned about the threat of overwhelming hospital systems, I don't agree with that level of enforcement at all.

What do you all think? At what point are we handing the government power that just isn't worth it? How far is too far?


It's one of the nasty parts of the Korea system that's scary to me. I'd like their level of efficacy but that's too many rights to give up in this country with too powerful interests that could turn this into a dystopia very fast.



SI

I think it depends on what the details are. Actively policing the lockdown has already been done as regards to businesses that didn't want to close, the pastor who was arrested, etc.

If you get into stuff like wanting the government to electronically monitor the real-time location of individuals, yeah I think that's too far. Breaking up parties etc. of people violating the lockdown? I think that's fine.

Just had an interesting dialog with my dad over text. He mentioned they (the government) may have to put in place stricter measures, like actively policing the lockdown or even tracking citizens. He seemed to think this was a good idea. As much as I've been saying we need to self-isolate and flatten the curve since the day I learned about the threat of overwhelming hospital systems, I don't agree with that level of enforcement at all.


What do you all think? At what point are we handing the government power that just isn't worth it? How far is too far?

I think it is a future step, I just don’t think it is the next step.

I also can’t get too indignant about that level of law enforcement in this case when we have allowed it to be acceptable in cases I think are nowhere near as serious as this pandemic. We have already gone too far IMO but that is probably a topic for a different thread.

Saw a CNN interview that mentioned the US has done 1.3 million tests, but almost have of those have yet to be processed. Has anyone else heard that stat?

Yes, there is a huge backlog at all those wonderful places that got a free infomercial during a press conference.

N.J.-based lab company Quest had huge backlog of coronavirus tests, report says - nj.com (https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nj-based-lab-company-quest-had-huge-backlog-of-coronavirus-tests-cnn-reports.html)

At some point you have to assume the test shortage is deliberate.

Saw a CNN interview that mentioned the US has done 1.3 million tests, but almost have of those have yet to be processed. Has anyone else heard that stat?

I had an employee who was tested in mid-March and had to wait 11 days to get the results. With the huge increases to testing in the last couple weeks, delays don't surprise me at all.

I had an employee who was tested in mid-March and had to wait 11 days to get the results. With the huge increases to testing in the last couple weeks, delays don't surprise me at all.

Wonder what's the point if your results come back when you're close to the recovery point.

The Atlantic apparently really puts work into reporting on testing issues from the start, here is their take:

The New Coronavirus Testing Crisis at Private Labs - The Atlantic (https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/609193/)

This makes me doubt how much reliable data the taskforce even has. Not the positives/deaths per se as others collect them like Johns Hopkins, but also the timing is huge to judge development and if a lot of the raw data comes in delayed ...

Wonder what's the point if your results come back when you're close to the recovery point.

Or land in the hospital with bad symptoms and then presumably have to get tested again to send it to a state lab instead or something.

It's one of the nasty parts of the Korea system that's scary to me. I'd like their level of efficacy but that's too many rights to give up in this country with too powerful interests that could turn this into a dystopia very fast.

SI


This is how I feel. The government isn't going to type LUCIOUS FOX into the systems once the pandemic ends. Once that stuff is in place I think it's there for good, if not as overtly.

Right now the trend for deaths per day isn't exponential. It's rising, but it's rising at a rate that is less than you'd expect for an exponential effect. That is a good sign. However, the numbers are still going to rise, and if the intensity of the infected spreads across the US to the same level that we're seeing in New York, then we should see another spike toward the exponential again. I think it's good news that we don't see that day to day, even though we are seeing strong rises, but it also needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

One thing that I read this morning in the article SI shared, was that the infection %/per test rises substantially higher the further behind that area is in testing. Low infection rates per capita should be standard so areas that are trending back toward that expected rate are actually getting caught up on testing and are not being overrun any longer. If we start to see other areas where those %infected/tested start to get out of whack you know that it's a giant red flag.

Just had an interesting dialog with my dad over text. He mentioned they (the government) may have to put in place stricter measures, like actively policing the lockdown or even tracking citizens. He seemed to think this was a good idea. As much as I've been saying we need to self-isolate and flatten the curve since the day I learned about the threat of overwhelming hospital systems, I don't agree with that level of enforcement at all.


What do you all think? At what point are we handing the government power that just isn't worth it? How far is too far?

It may already be too late.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/kentucky-judges-order-coronavirus-patients-others-to-wear-gps-ankle-monitors-for-refusing-to-stay-home

One thing that I read this morning in the article SI shared, was that the infection %/per test rises substantially higher the further behind that area is in testing. Low infection rates per capita should be standard so areas that are trending back toward that expected rate are actually getting caught up on testing and are not being overrun any longer. If we start to see other areas where those %infected/tested start to get out of whack you know that it's a giant red flag.

I think this and death/Positive are really good indicators on how good testing has been and that in terms keep deaths low later.

Another to watch for if available: Average Age of confirmed cases. The younger, the more likely that testing happens on mild cases or even contacts of confirmed cases rather than mainly people with symptoms turning up at hospitals or at the doctors (other respiratory issues also tend to be older patients and 'block' testing capacity to rule them out)

The average Age for Positive Tests in Germany is 17 years younger than Italy, yet the age for dead patients was pretty much the same. Basically indicates a lot less spread among the elderly and that the test capacity is high enough to test a lot if younger people that either travelled from say Italy (early on) or were tested due to being contacts or had mild symptoms, not because their symptoms were already bad.

One other thing why good testing (not only in numbers but widespread) and quick turnaround are so important is also getting people 'sorted' and treated early. There was a very interesting piece inna german paper referencing head of departments in hospitals that laid out one key difference between Germany and Italy/Spain : the percentage of patients coming into hospitals that were already tested positive multiple days prior is very high so far.

Aside from not infecting as many people potentially since they are in quarantine they also know to watch out for warning signs and and when they do have to get admitted they can go straight into treatment as confirmed Covid19 (and seperated from non-confirmed or non-covid) without having to test them and wait for results.

It may already be too late.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/kentucky-judges-order-coronavirus-patients-others-to-wear-gps-ankle-monitors-for-refusing-to-stay-home


Super interesting blurry area. So on the one hand, if some HIV positive dude is going around banging people without telling them, we all agree he should be punished by the law right? So I think I sort of get the ankle-bracelet on COVID-positive people that aren't staying at home, it's the same thing.

Where it blurs is the one that's living with COVID-positive people. That's a super interesting intersection point between public safety and personal freedoms. I can see both sides' arguments being totally valid here, and I have no idea where you draw the line. What about their neighbors? Yeesh.

And our Governor issues the stay at home order. Through April 24.

Our county issued one through April 30th yesterday.

MA Governor says the story behind the Kraft flight is that the feds seized 3 million masks MA had bought, so the flight to China was set up as a way to make sure the feds wouldn't take the masks.

So here's how many hospitals will decide who gets a ventilator when there is a shortage aka the "death panels".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-hospital-ethics-ventilators-invs/index.html
If the current rate of hospitalization and intubation continues in New York, "we have about six days" left of ventilators in the stockpile, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said during Thursday's coronavirus briefing.

"If a person comes in and needs a ventilator and you don't have a ventilator, the person dies. That's the blunt equation here," Cuomo said.

The demand for ventilators has skyrocketed in intensive care units across the country as coronavirus patients have flooded in. Typically, adult patients will stay in the ICU -- and on a ventilator -- for only three to four days, as one Connecticut doctor explained, but Covid-19 patients need them for up to two or three weeks, dramatically increasing demand.
:
:
One of the better frameworks to follow, he said, is one developed by Dr. Douglas White, a professor of critical care medicine at the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UMPC).
:
:
It is essentially a point system calculating a patient's likelihood to benefit from ICU care, based on two considerations: 1) saving the most lives and 2) saving the most lives.

The lower the patient scores, the higher their prioritization for care. In the system's eight-point scale, the first four points illustrate the patient's likelihood to survive hospitalization, and the last four points assess whether, assuming they survive hospitalization, they have medical conditions associated with a life expectancy of less than one year or less than five years.

In the event of a tie, White's framework directs doctors to consider life cycle, with priority being given to younger patients.

It's not going to be perfect and I can accept the model. However my cynical self thinks he is talking out of both sides. Above 4+4 points does seem to contradict below bolded.

Its like yeah, these factors won't excluded you from being considered for a ventilator. But they will reduce your chances of getting one if someone else needs the same one.

White said that his framework is meant to be inclusive and nondiscriminatory against people with disabilities.

"It is critical to make clear that stereotypical judgments about quality of life have no role in these decisions, and no one is disqualified from treatment because of disabilities," White said.
:
"Advanced age, severe cognitive impairment and chronic heart and lung diseases were all used as exclusion criteria. That didn't seem ethical to me. Exclusion criteria send the wrong message that there are some lives that are not worth saving," White said.

This could lead to a perception of unfairness, he has said, during a public health emergency where trust is essential. By contrast, the framework White and his team developed ensures no one is disqualified from critical care from the outset.

"Everyone who is normally eligible for intensive care remains eligible in a public health emergency," White said.

1,320 deaths so far today according to worldometers. Sliced through the 1,000 barrier pretty damn easily.

United States Coronavirus: 276,965 Cases and 7,391 Deaths - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

So here's how many hospitals will decide who gets a ventilator when there is a shortage aka the "death panels".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-hospital-ethics-ventilators-invs/index.html


It's not going to be perfect and I can accept the model. However my cynical self thinks he is talking out of both sides. Above 4+4 points does seem to contradict below bolded.

Its like yeah, these factors won't excluded you from being considered for a ventilator. But they will reduce your chances of getting one if someone else needs the same one.

I am not reading this the way I think you might be. The bolded criteria in your second quote appears to be the automatic exclusion criteria that was in place when he developed his criteria, so while it obviously factors in, it does not automatically exclude these patients unless there are other more likely to survive and not enough equipment for everyone.

1,320 deaths so far today according to worldometers. Sliced through the 1,000 barrier pretty damn easily.

United States Coronavirus: 276,965 Cases and 7,391 Deaths - Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

This isn't and shouldn't be, surprising.

I am not reading this the way I think you might be. The bolded criteria in your second quote appears to be the automatic exclusion criteria that was in place when he developed his criteria, so while it obviously factors in, it does not automatically exclude these patients unless there are other more likely to survive and not enough equipment for everyone.

Yes, that is how I read it. Those factors won't automatically exclude you but is part of the decision criteria when ventilators get low. He said its not exclusionary but it really is "exclusionary" when ventilators get low.

Yes, that is how I read it. Those factors won't automatically exclude you but is part of the decision criteria when ventilators get low. He said its not exclusionary but it really is "exclusionary" when ventilators get low.

All things being equal than yes, I agree. but you will also have folks in those groups that may get ventilators due to tiebreakers or others having multiple factors.

Still, truth be told it sucks that anyone may have to face this reality and I have lots of empathy for any medical professional that has to make that decision. An absolutely brutal burden to bear.

All things being equal than yes, I agree. but you will also have folks in those groups that may get ventilators due to tiebreakers or others having multiple factors.

Still, truth be told it sucks that anyone may have to face this reality and I have lots of empathy for any medical professional that has to make that decision. An absolutely brutal burden to bear.

Yup, nothing is going to be perfect and some will see it as unfair (e.g. rich people can stay in better health than poor people).

I don't envy them at all.

A lot of good thoughts from Gen. Honore on how to better supply hospitals.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After hearing the White House say critical supplies are going to commercial distributors who are then selling them to the states which are begging for help, I called <a href="https://twitter.com/ltgrusselhonore?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ltgrusselhonore</a> who commanded federal troops after Hurricane Katrina to get his reaction. Watch this: <a href="https://t.co/x7u3qoQ0v6">pic.twitter.com/x7u3qoQ0v6</a></p>&mdash; David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1245906088911949826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

1,320 deaths so far today according to worldometers. Sliced through the 1,000 barrier pretty damn easily.

Was 1100 a couple days ago. As others have said, I'm actually taking it as *relatively* positive news that it is going up slower than expected. Obviously like everyone else looking forward to the time when it goes in the other direction, but I'll take this over breakaway exponential increases.

Also the crunch is starting to hit the Detroit area. Grand Rapids (and other areas as well) are being requested to reserve 10% of capacity for patients relocated from there. For now that should be a workable solution, but I'm wondering how long it holds.

We need to have ourselves the math is trending to 10000 deaths per week at minimum and am not buying it is going down soon based on actions taken to date. Hope I am wrong.

A lot of good thoughts from Gen. Honore on how to better supply hospitals.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After hearing the White House say critical supplies are going to commercial distributors who are then selling them to the states which are begging for help, I called <a href="https://twitter.com/ltgrusselhonore?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ltgrusselhonore</a> who commanded federal troops after Hurricane Katrina to get his reaction. Watch this: <a href="https://t.co/x7u3qoQ0v6">pic.twitter.com/x7u3qoQ0v6</a></p>&mdash; David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1245906088911949826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

that is AMAZING!

Rich get richer

I did not listen to the whole video, stopped half way through, but they aren't going through the RFP process?

Having been tangentially involved with Katrina recovery efforts, half the problem there was local officials in New Orleans did not have a plan when FEMA came in, as compared to Mississippi. They couldn't tell FEMA what to get, etc. MEMA (Mississippi EMA) had their plan, told FEMA what they needed and FEMA got it.

Part of the reason Halliburton is so big and tied to the government, they have most of this emergency stuff sitting in a warehouse somewhere, and when something happens and its needed in a hurry, they show up and say, we have it here, how fast do you need it? Similar to how the general explains it in the video. With ventilators, I do not think any one has any sitting in a warehouse anywhere.

Even if they were, would they meet the sanitation and cleanliness standards required?

We really need a federal response for ventilators in particular. My guess is there are thousands, maybe tens of thousands in hospitals around the country that aren't being used currently. We need to move supplies to areas that need them and then as one area cools down, move those supplies to a new area. That approach won't work for PPE, but it would for ventilators, beds, etc.

What's going to happen to all the supplies in NY when the deaths decrease? Are their plans to share from state to state?

I don't think it's going down soon, and 10k a week is bad but it's not nearly as bad as, say, 10k a day. It wouldn't have shocked me if we were approaching that by now - that's what I mean by *relatively* positive.

We really need a federal response for ventilators in particular. My guess is there are thousands, maybe tens of thousands in hospitals around the country that aren't being used currently. We need to move supplies to areas that need them and then as one area cools down, move those supplies to a new area. That approach won't work for PPE, but it would for ventilators, beds, etc.

What's going to happen to all the supplies in NY when the deaths decrease? Are their plans to share from state to state?


Tangentially - I'm watching Gov Cuomo's briefing from earlier today and he mentioned that the Governor of Oregon reached out to him, unsolicited, and Oregon is sending 140 ventilators to New York.

I certainly expect New York will distribute ventilators once they do not need them anymore, themselves if the federal government isn't doing that, but it's absolutely a thing to pay attention to and to make sure it happens.

https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OG-EB929_ITDEAT_4U_20200401132315.png

(Estimate because the last couple days from march were not yet accesible)

Yes they were especially hard hit and vulnerable population wise and with a lack of ressources, but it is also the early stages still and with very stringent measures after March 8th.

Austria with more Recovered than New Positives today for the first time, might actually be the first European Country to have that happen. Baby steps but still a good sign :)

But the health minister also said that aside from the shortage on masks currently about 9/10 proposals turn out to be substandard quality even when one would be allowing for some drop in standard) or just flat out "buy without sample" offers which is what the Netherlands did the other day and had to trash the whole shipment as they were utterly useless.

And Italy for the first time has less people in ICUs than the day before.

Nate Silver gets it

Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless* | FiveThirtyEight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/)