NYT and WP are reporting this will be a Pandemic.

Doesn't feel like a Pandemic aka in the movies, but wanted to start this thread to get some thoughts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html
The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.
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The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
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In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths.

But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged.

When SARS was vanquished in July 2003 after spreading for nine months, only 8,098 cases had been confirmed. MERS has been circulating since 2012, but there have been only about 2,500 known cases.
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The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die. SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, 20 million to 50 million died.

By contrast, the highly transmissible H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 killed about 285,000, fewer than seasonal flu normally does, and had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at .02 percent.

The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.


https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/01/30/us/china-coronavirus-contain-promo-1580431440996/china-coronavirus-contain-promo-1580431440996-threeByTwoSmallAt2X-v9.png

I think it's still a bit of a beat-up at this stage - early signs have me thinking that the steps China took this time have prevented what could have been much worse. Currently 1 death outside of mainland China (HK), and although the numbers coming out of China are murky and filtered through the state media lens, I think it's safe to say that the overall health and living conditions of some of those contracting the disease also played a part in the mortality rates within the region.

Based on current info less than 2% die from this and all of those have been from an underlying health condition, not the disease itself.

Its a really nasty new "ick" best not to let it spread, but not panic worthy.

Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.

Conspiracy theory for the win.

Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.

Conspiracy theory for the win.

Something I read somewhere proposed a theory that China knew this was going to get bad and that's why they did the Phase 1 with Trump. Not sure the timing works though.

Coronavirus outbreak not yet pandemic - World Health Organization - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51368873)

MSM is putting some perspective on this e.g. comparing it to the flu.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106362398-1580727197721coronavirusvsallflustrains.png?v=1580727218&w=740&h=416

China stock markets were down 8% but rebounded 1%+ today. US stock markets have (so far) rebounded pretty well too. Wonder how much will this affect China's economy and impact global companies with some/most their supply chain in China.

Another graphic to put things into perspective. The chart is as of Jan 31 and I believe the infected nos. are much greater now.

FWIW, I never realized the H1N1 "swine flu" was that widespread and cause that many deaths.

How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in One Simple Chart (https://www.sciencealert.com/this-chart-shows-how-the-wuhan-virus-compares-to-other-recent-outbreaks)
https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2020-02/5e35c9a75bc79c7e8f421d82.jpeg

So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one?

So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one?

I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher. I think it's good practice to implement strong/harsh controls (travel bans/quarantines/etc) any time something like this rears its head, but I feel like one of the few people I know who isn't actively panicked by the whole thing.

Flight embargoes as you call them are not the result over worry about spreading these virus inasmuch as it's about bookings that have fallen off a cliff. Initially anyway. Even coming from Tokyo yesterday I had nearly 100 seats empty. Two weeks ago, that safe flight maybe only had 8 empty. It's so much worse going to China. It's going to cost a fortune in lost revenue.

I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher.

There is an article floating out there where Tencent had posted higher infections and deaths before lowering them match up with the official tally. Agree that it is probably higher and that mortality rate probably won't go up that much higher (unless there is a massive cover-up which I guess is possible).

Another article on folks quarantined on cruise ships. Assuming they are actually stuck in their rooms vs going down the waterslides and enjoying a nice seafood buffet ... must suck.

I am also surprised that China markets are going back up after their 8% decline on Mon. I can understand the US markets' stability/rise because it hasn't really hit us and/or we are more confident in being able to meet the challenge if it does come over, but China's industries must really be hit right now. I did read that Chinese government is spending or allocating $180B or stabilize the market (but that number sounds small to me).

I was wondering how the folks quarantined on the cruise ships were doing. Here's and article, he posts his meals on twitter (doesn't look too bad for "prison" food).

It must suck for those in the interior without windows.

Man tweets food reviews from ship quarantined for coronavirus (https://nypost.com/2020/02/07/diamond-princess-passenger-tweets-food-reviews-during-coronavirus-quarantine/)

Well my company a Fortune 50 multinational has suspended all travel to from Asia Pacific as of Friday and thee are quite a few large companies doing the same. This is certainly going to affect revenue eventually.

American Citizen Diagnosed With Coronavirus Dies in China - WSJ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/an-american-citizen-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-has-died-in-china-11581141185)

Pretty much still a jumble mess of confusion and FUD. Read WHO team is on the ground in China but not getting cooperation supposedly, China firing some big wigs in the area, China stats not accurate and/needed to be redefined etc.

From the CDC. Yeah, I'm okay to restrict to/from, require quarantine etc. until we get a better handle on this (and no, it's not racist to do this).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html
As an outbreak of a novel coronavirus has swept through Hubei province, China, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been preparing for its worst case scenario -- a widespread outbreak of illnesses in the United States.

"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.

"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."
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While more research is needed to fully understand the virus, Redfield told Gupta that the CDC has focused on surveillance to track cases and containment strategies to slow possible progression of the virus in the United States. Slowing progression gives more time for researchers to work on developing and testing a vaccine and antiviral drugs for this novel coronavirus. Currently, there is no known cure for the virus

Given the mortality rate sits somewhere between 0.5 - 4% outside of Hubei province in China, the best cure for the virus seems to be recovering from the virus.

Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code">I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.</code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American televangelist Jim Bakker is selling a liquid that allegedly ‘kills’ the coronavirus for $300 <a href="https://t.co/sQYL9eJTq6">pic.twitter.com/sQYL9eJTq6</a></p>&mdash; NowThis (@nowthisnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1228079651655782400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?

Pics or I'm calling BS.

(But yes, get ready !!)

Pics or I'm calling BS.

(But yes, get ready !!)

I'm still waiting for the financing to come through. Going to be cutting it close.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code">I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.</code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American televangelist Jim Bakker is selling a liquid that allegedly ‘kills’ the coronavirus for $300 <a href="https://t.co/sQYL9eJTq6">pic.twitter.com/sQYL9eJTq6</a></p>&mdash; NowThis (@nowthisnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1228079651655782400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Wow.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/liiVX55tJ7E" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code">I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.

I get this, but he's mostly looking to scam lonely old people, so fuck him.

Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.

I read that estimates are that China has twice the population of the US under lockdown now.

At least this isn't as bad as Birdemic

Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.

You should hear what his kid has to say about him.

Watching "The Martian" right now and it's where they play "Starman" with numerous montages including the NASA folks working with their Chinese equivalents to launch the Chinese resupply ship ... great scenes with the perfect song. It did well in China with $52M in first week.

Sure would be great if we had that type of relationship with China. Seems like the coronavirus provides a "similar" opportunity where both countries can really grow closer but there doesn't seem to be as much trust, transparency etc.

Some stats from China's CDC.

2.3% death rate, over 60+ is most vulnerable, infections peaked around Jan 23-26.

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981)
Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.

Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.

The research also points to the high risk to medical staff.
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The report by the CCDC shows the province's death rate is 2.9% compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country.

The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
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It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old.

Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

The study also identifies which existing illnesses put patients at risk. It puts cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

This is by far the most detailed study of the coronavirus outbreak within China. It gives us incredible insight into what is happening, but the picture is far from complete.

You can study only the cases you find, and other scientists have estimated there could be 10 times as many people infected as are ending up in the official statistics. That means the overall death rate is likely to be lower than the one reported in this study.

The report also suggests the outbreak peaked in late January, but it is too soon to know for sure.

Looking forward, the paper finds that "the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms" peaked around 23-26 January before declining up to 11 February.

The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.

Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-health-officials-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-pandemic.html
U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has killed at least 2,249 people and sickened more than 76,700 worldwide, to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

“We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”
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Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.

The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.

Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-health-officials-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-pandemic.html




Jade Helm 15


NEVER FORGET!


Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?!

Jade Helm 15

NEVER FORGET!

Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?!

So you don't see the coronavirus becoming a bigger threat this year than let's say the annual flu? And the quarantines that are happening right now, an overreaction?

You mean like the spot on reactions to that Ebola breakout?

There are lots of reasons why outbreaks are worse, start and spread faster elsewhere.

My issue isn't with the way it's handled. It's the panic and insanity that comes with it. Cheeto isn't really wrong saying warmer weather will weaken it. People want to draw this line from a causing b, but they don't think about all the steps in between. That's all.

Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!

Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!

Steady ... steady ... ste ... aaargh

It’ll be a bumpy ride.

BTW my SPCE is up 2.16% !!!

Ken Cuccinelli, the Acting Deputy Sec. of Homeland Security asked for help reaching Johns Hopkins coronavirus map because it's apparently behind a paywall.

We're all gonna get sick.

Can anyone think of a worst case scenario then Trump being briefed on a pandemic and actually having to make life or death decisions.

Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?

What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it.

Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?

What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it.

From the link below, the death % is primarily the boomers and older.

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981)

What I've read is we are trying to "contain" it to buy time to develop a vaccine or figure more effective treatments. Differing estimates as to how far along a vaccine is, unproven stories that some existing drugs can cure or help etc.

China's infections and deaths seem to be decreasing but who really trust those metrics. China cancels the National People's Congress because of the flu etc.

On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And it's not just Dems! <a href="https://twitter.com/SenShelby?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SenShelby</a> just said at the hearing with Azar: “It could be an existential threat to a lot of people in this country...This is not the time to try to shortchange the American people. This is the time to step up.”</p>&mdash; Alice Miranda Ollstein (@AliceOllstein) <a href="https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1232338949030469633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's not comforting.

On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now.

Well, nevermind.

I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

Well, nevermind.

I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right?

Talk about cancelling the Olympics. The quote came from a long time IOC member named, wait for it......Dick Pound.

https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc6818344bdee2096bc2?utm_medium=AP_Sports&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right?

I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare.

If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

He will 100% get a pass. The man can do no wrong when it comes to his supporters. They will find an excuse for him on the worst of situations let alone one where he actually may have a legit excuse.

I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some".

We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth).

I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare.

If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now.

Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now.

I didn’t think about that. You are right if there is a Katrina like response it could hurt him significantly.

Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some".

We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth).

The corona virus could definitely be a Black Swan event that finally causes a significant drop. Hopefully the world can contain the virus from doing its worst, but it is looking really dicey right now.

"We have contained this, I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight." -- Kudlow, on @CNBC now.

Yeah, we're fucked when it gets here.

CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S. - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-warns-it-expects-coronavirus-to-spread-in-u-s-11582653829?mod=hp_lead_pos2)

This article is not encouraging.

C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us.html)

Nor this one.

The US has the strongest (arguably) and/or most scalable healthcare system so we are probably the best to meet this challenge.

I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public.

I was reading an article about whether this was "airborne" or not. Yes, it doesn't fit the technical description of airborne but if I sneeze close by you and you can catch it, its "airborne" enough :)

CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S. - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-warns-it-expects-coronavirus-to-spread-in-u-s-11582653829?mod=hp_lead_pos2)

This article is not encouraging.

C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us.html)

Nor this one.

Stark contrast from the administration.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&quot;We have contained this, I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight.&quot; -- Kudlow, on <a href="https://twitter.com/CNBC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNBC</a> now.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a></p>&mdash; Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) <a href="https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1232372971387285504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?

I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public.


This just popped up. Good news.

This event will inevitably be adapted to a movie one day. Looking forward to it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-health-officials-say-human-trials-on-coronavirus-vaccine-to-start-in-6-weeks.html
Human trials testing a potential vaccine for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected to begin in six weeks, U.S. health officials announced Tuesday.

“We are on time at least and maybe even a little bit better,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters at a press conference. “Hopefully, no further glitches.”

The White House reportedly asked Congress on Monday for $1.25 billion , including money to develop a vaccine and therapeutics to treat the virus. The National Institutes of Health has been working with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine using the current strain of the coronavirus

Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?

Loads. Just search on google and reddit.

We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc.

What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !!

Loads. Just search on google and reddit.

We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc.

What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !!

Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am.

Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am.

I know Costco, Walmart, Target etc. keeps track of a person's purchases. It would be fascinating to see the analytics on what items are being bought now that a person would not normally buy or in that quantity.

I wonder if they have see a significant difference in buying yet from their members.

I have a friend in Florida that bought a case of MREs off Amazon (I think) when there were concerns of a hurricane last year. Seem kind of pricey but I guess in an emergency, would work.

So I thought stocking up was silly but maybe it's not a bad idea. :lol:

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DHS Secretary Chad Wolf claims the mortality rate for coronavirus is similar to the flu, both at about 2%. Senator Kennedy says &quot;are you sure of that?&quot; and the secretary doubles down.<br><br>The mortality rate for seasonal flu is closer to 0.1%: <a href="https://t.co/Fo6nfQrbni">pic.twitter.com/Fo6nfQrbni</a></p>&mdash; Matt Novak (@paleofuture) <a href="https://twitter.com/paleofuture/status/1232385716463656960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

And it's not just mortality. The hospitalization rate is maybe the bigger worry as hospital beds fill up and then what? Even if the virus is in relatively few cities, it can still cause a lot of problems.

The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.



The biggest issue seems to be the incubation period. The common flu is like 3 days, and this can stretch up to 14 days, and one case of 27 days (although it's possible that person was exposed to more than one person who had the virus).

Also that the incubation period is largely asymptomatic.

The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.


FWIW ...

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)
The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.


Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO

We can't get people to use their blinkers....

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?




Because of libertarians, that's why.

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO

I wouldn't mind a 2 week vacation.

FWIW ...

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)



Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981)



Regarding the first number:


There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.



How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. ^{[13 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-13)]}
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. ^{[23 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-23)]}.
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. ^{[5 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-5)][6 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-6)][7 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-7)]}
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Give people a 48 hour window to stock up and GO

Great idea but unfortunately I'd still have to work remote.

I do wonder if there is enough food at grocery stores for each family to buy 2 weeks worth of food?

Which leads to another question - how are the folks quarantined in cities like Wuhan getting food?

So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .

So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .

Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving.

Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving.

Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general?

Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general?

I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.

I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.

You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it?

As much as I am a conspiracy theory guy and I dont trust the government, Im sold on vaccinations.

I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.

Fair points.

You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it?



How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it?

Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research.

How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it?

Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research.

Damn you. Im as big an anti Pharma guy as there is and yet I buy into the vaccination stuff.

What do I believe, What do I think is fact or fiction? Who do I believe?

I hate big pharma, yet Im buying into their propaganda.

Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.

Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives.

So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .

TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials.

I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first.

TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials.

I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first.

Agree.

Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.

Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives.

Like I said I haven't even thought about researching it yet. Maybe the bias has sunk in through osmosis on social media or something.

Regarding the first number:


There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.



How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. ^{[13 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-13)]}
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. ^{[23 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-23)]}.
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. ^{[5 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-5)][6 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-6)][7 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-7)]}
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
If COVID is >= 3.0, then this is going to be a Spanish Flu level catastrophe, tens of millions dead.

Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.

If COVID is >= 3.0, then this is going to be a Spanish Flu level catastrophe, tens of millions dead.

I still don't see it. I believe modern countries, with strong medicine and high standards of cleanliness will not experience this on anything like that level. China, India, Africa, Russia all are at a substantially higher risk. Maybe it will and maybe that will be enough to crash these global economy, but warmer weather is coming too and like the risk will drop with that alone.

HPV vaccines for men massively reduce cancer risks for women. This has been shown. I would give them all day and twice on Sunday.

I was reading about how one of the reasons coronavirus spreads so quickly and easily is that it's not particularly deadly or even debilitating. Young people get it, assume they have the cold or the flu - or sometimes feel no symptoms at all - and continue their plans and travel around. They tested everyone on that cruise ship and lots of people had it - even though they all felt fine. If they were just out in the world they wouldn't have even been tested.

That makes containment a lot more difficult. There's a Harvard professor who thinks that 40-70% of people in the world will get the virus at some point, but that most will get only mildly sick, or not notice at all.

Even though they probably under-report things, the fact that we don't have reports of bodies in the streets in China despite how easily this spreads seems to support all that. If China can avoid massive deaths, and there's some indications things are tapering off there, we hopefully will see even smaller death tolls in Europe and North America.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.

It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.

Not sure about the very young, see BBC link above. If it can be believed (have to take it with a grain of salt, its a Chinese study), it showed the very young were not impacted that much either. Primarily the older folks ... just under 15% for 80+, about 8% for 70-79, 3.5% for 60-69.

(Probably some ageist bio-terror plot to redistribute Boomer wealth IMO)

Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.

I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease.

HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.

HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.

WTF grifters.

HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.

Gross.

My worst fears have come to pass. We have national crisis that involves potential life and death decisions and we have to count Trump to protect us.

Trump- “I am putting Mike Pence in charge as the Czar"........No!!!!

Though I guess better than Trump.

Pence making it clear that Dear Leader is using his powers as a God-King to protect all Americans.

Don't worry. Pence us in charge. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in science.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Pray the corona away. Perfect.

Haha I forgot about that. We are all fucked!

I’m looking forward to scientists revealing that the gays are the reason Coronavirus is sweeping across America

I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease.

I figured as much. Just thought it was interesting to see people stocking up.

Did find some N95 masks around the house I used during messy home improvement projects.

Don't worry. Pence us in charge. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in science.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This has to be an attempt by the regime to drive people to religion.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

SPCE is down 23% so far today. Still in the black though.

At least I got my 2 months of toilet paper and lysol spray.

How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

I'm kind of in the same boat. I have some money I want to throw into my index fund but I'm waiting for the "low point". I might throw in some today.

I have no doubt that the world will get past the virus and the stock market will grow past where we are now.

Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

And if you lose, just keep doubling until you win!

How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

You could break the money you want to invest into a number of chunks, and buy in with another chunk every week or two.

Everything I've read says, unless you are a Warren Buffet like or have insider trading info, don't try to time the market. Assuming you have a long time horizon, investing in a solid, diversified fund/ETF(s) is the way to go.

With that said, we've hit correction territory already (-10% from high), I think there is a good chance it'll be real rocky and lean downwards (let's get the long overdue bear market -20% out of the way) until we get better news on the coronavirus (e.g. vaccine, its not as bad as China etc.)

You could break the money you want to invest into a number of chunks, and buy in with another chunk every week or two.

Yep, I'm a big fan of Dollar Cost Averaging and just buy on a regular basis.

Noted virologists Mnuchin and Kudlow added to the coronavirus task force while Pence has time to deliver a speech at CPAC.

edit: The scientists have been told they can't speak publically without running it by Pence first.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!

Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

I can't imagine we're anywhere close to the bottom. Wait until schools close and sporting events are canceled. There's a lot of disruption still to come.

Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.

Japan has now closed all schools for a month to limit the spread.

Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.

I tend to be in the other camp just because the media likes to over hype these kinds of issues.

But then again I'm usually wrong about these things.

Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.


I sort of feel this too, but I feel like there is currently a massive amount of fearmongering and clickbait titles going around right now that doesn't seem helpful. I had a news notification on my phone this mornign and the title was something like "You'll probably catch Coronavirus at some point" :redface:

Right now I'm just stocking up a little extra on canned goods each time I go get groceries, so if things do get worse I don't have to do it in a panic when everyone else in the country is doing the same thing.


As far as stocks/401k's go, I'm in the "do not try to time the market" camp. Just keep contributing whatever you are right now on the same schedule. The market will recover, and you'll have been making regular contributions at various points all the way down and when it recovers you'll reap the rewards, all good.

I have a lot of my 401K money in a 2045 retirement fund (for exactly the reason of not trying to time the market). My brother in-law had an interesting idea I did last week. Basically, I just moved that 2045 fund money into a 2025 fund (much "safer" fund). Once things start to pickup again, I can just make a transaction to move it back to the 2045 fund. It probably won't make a big difference down the line, but even if I save 3-5% of the value - that's some decent money.

Yeah, that's a pretty simple way to adjust your risk level down.

I had a news notification on my phone this mornign and the title was something like "You'll probably catch Coronavirus at some point" :redface:

I think that might have been The Atlantic article that was linked earlier in this thread. I think they estimated 40 to 70% of us will eventually catch it, but that for most of us, it will be a mild case.

Edit: Yeah, that was this: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/


Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)

Yeah, that's a pretty simple way to adjust your risk level down.
Yeah, what's crazy (and stupid on my part) is I never would have put that together without talking to him. Guess that's why those guys get paid :p

I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market. But I am a relative novice.

I manage my own pension. I pay in to various funds, a lot of them American. Once the Dow hit the early 28000s I stopped paying in to the funds and held the money within the pension as cash. Now the market is lower you buy in and get more units. So when it hits 35,000 in 5 years time, or 50,000 in 20 years you have done better as you got more units.

Surely this is a better time to buy then a month ago? Clear cut, end of story. Right? It may go down further but it will rise eventually and ultimately it will have been a cheap buy.

Conversely I sold my gold the day of the 7 year high. Only made 6% as I bought fairly dear, but profit is profit. Isn't this timing the market successfully? Now with that money I buy the cheap Dow...

Japan has now closed all schools for a month to limit the spread.

I was thinking about why as it's unlikely a vaccine or cure is going to happen in a month, the virus will still be around.

Then I think I figured it out. It is to reduce the rate of infection but it's probably also so health services do not get overwhelmed all at once.

And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.

The company my wife works for, owned by Warren Buffet, sent out a memo today saying do not travel if you are even remotely sick as you may get quarantined. It also said have your laptop at all times and be prepared to work long stretches from home or wherever you can get online. They also have closed down a plant in China.

Does anyone else have travel coming up?

We are going to Cancun last week of March without our kids for a couples trip. We haven't paid the balance yet, we have a couple weeks to do it and I am waiting until the last minute. I'm more worried about getting back in to the country than anything else.

Does anyone else have travel coming up?

We are going to Cancun last week of March without our kids for a couples trip. We haven't paid the balance yet, we have a couple weeks to do it and I am waiting until the last minute. I'm more worried about getting back in to the country than anything else.

I have travel to NE next Wed-Fri for a client meeting. TBH, I wouldn't mind if they cancelled it or just made it a conference call.

edit: The scientists have been told they can't speak publically without running it by Pence first.

I struggle with this.

One one hand it is horrifying that the government is basically saying they will tell us what we need to know and only them.

One the other hand we live in an era when misinformation spreads so quickly it does make sense to ensure the proper information is going out to the public.

I think for me what it boils down to is I have little issue with the government wanting to vet the information coming out, but I have zero faith in THIS government to do so properly or ethically.

I have travel to NE next Wed-Fri for a client meeting. TBH, I wouldn't mind if they cancelled it or just made it a conference call.

I would be comfortable with domestic travel, it;s the international aspect of it I am worried about.

I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market. But I am a relative novice.

I manage my own pension. I pay in to various funds, a lot of them American. Once the Dow hit the early 28000s I stopped paying in to the funds and held the money within the pension as cash. Now the market is lower you buy in and get more units. So when it hits 35,000 in 5 years time, or 50,000 in 20 years you have done better as you got more units.

Surely this is a better time to buy then a month ago? Clear cut, end of story. Right? It may go down further but it will rise eventually and ultimately it will have been a cheap buy.

Conversely I sold my gold the day of the 7 year high. Only made 6% as I bought fairly dear, but profit is profit. Isn't this timing the market successfully? Now with that money I buy the cheap Dow...

On average, though, it doesn't work.

On average, though, it doesn't work.
Yeah, every quarter I look at my 401K to see if anything has changed in the funds I use - but I rarely do anything. This time, though, it seemed like a pretty safe bet that putting your money in a low risk fund for a couple months will equate better value given the election and virus.

I struggle with this.

One one hand it is horrifying that the government is basically saying they will tell us what we need to know and only them.

One the other hand we live in an era when misinformation spreads so quickly it does make sense to ensure the proper information is going out to the public.

I think for me what it boils down to is I have little issue with the government wanting to vet the information coming out, but I have zero faith in THIS government to do so properly or ethically.

Vetting it through Fauci would be a lot better than through Pence. Pence doesn't know anything about the science, so he's almost certainly there to look at everything through a political lens.

I almost feel sorry for Pence:

The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do,” according to people familiar with the president’s comments.

I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market.

The "you" who can't time the market isn't the individual "you," it's the collective "you." As in all of us.

Sure, you can win at roulette. There's a great thread on here how to do it. You'd probably enjoy it a lot. A person can go play roulette and come away a winner for that sitting. It happens all the time.

But, it's still true that you can't beat the game of roulette. It's a fixed odds game. You can get lucky, but there's no real way to beat it systematically. So, "we" collectively always lose at roulette.

The saying about timing markets is meant as a generic aphorism. Sure, people get lucky and manage to buy low and sell high. Some others end up guessing wrong and do the reverse. Making decisions based on thinking we know where the bottoms and tops are is, in general, a tough way to find alpha. Anecdotes included.

That's what the saying means. In the off chance that was useful.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html?referringSource=articleShare


Not good.

It was just a matter of time until it reached within the borders of our country. The virus is now about 60 miles away, an hour drive by car.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html?referringSource=articleShare


Not good.

Yeah, it looks like the article is quarantined under a paywall.

Hey, at least one quarantine worked!

It was just a matter of time until it reached within the borders of our country. The virus is now about 60 miles away, an hour drive by car.


Isn't nearly everything within an hour by car?


j/k ;)

Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!

Always bet on black.

Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

It sounds like as long as you are under 70 or even better 60and are relatively health and don’t have a diabetes or something like a recent heart operation you should be ok.

Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

No way near end of world scenario. If you haven't already, just buy some extra canned foods, pasta, rice etc. (whatever you already eat) and bottled water for 2-4 weeks.

Wife, daughter and I did talk tonight at dinner. Told them there was a fair chance school shut downs will happen here. Told her nothing we can do about it, we have food etc. I also told her that young people don't have to worry much, it's primarily 60+ where mortality is higher than the 2.1%.

I've read and agree that virus is probably going to mutate and here to stay. We'll eventually find a vaccine and it'll be the new normal like the flu ... but that's next year. For now, a bunch of FUD unfortunately.

Well, I have type 1 diabetes. And Im 52.

So if you see a really long period of me not posting, assume the worst.

Coronavirus: Sick Korean Air attendant served Tel Aviv, LA flights, reports say - Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-koreanair-attendant-reportedly-served-tel-aviv-los-angeles-2020-2#seoul-los-angeles-seoul-2)

The Los Angeles Times reported that after returning to Seoul, the flight attendant may have operated two additional flights between the South Korean capital and Los Angeles. Those flights, KE17 and KE12, reportedly took place February 19 and February 20, with a one-night layover in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Bold emphasis mine. That one-night layover was most likely at the new InterContinental Hotel in Downtown Los Angeles, owned by Korean Air. This hotel is adjacent to my place of work, and I walk by this hotel daily. COVID-19 could be closer than I think.

Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!

https://media3.giphy.com/media/l0ExlNq1lPUW635e0/source.gif

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

It's very reasonable to be concerned about yourself or people you care about, esp. with certain health conditions. But end of the world? No.

It's easy to forget with the press coverage of the 3000 or so who have died from this that 12k-50k die annually from plain ordinary flu. This is a scary virus, but it's not remotely close to end of the world territory. It would need to be several orders of magnitude more lethal for that to happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see deaths worldwide hit 6-7 figures eventually, or to see a global recession result. It's not good at all. But humanity will easily survive it on the whole and it could well not end up nearly that bad either, depending on response, how long medications take to be developed and become widely available, etc.

Some light hearted humor for this thread ... especially since futures are currently down -234 or .92%.

I typically check and update my spreadsheet on all my finances and investments at month-end. I'm going to skip it for Feb since it'll be too painful

Americans are avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak, survey finds (https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/)
Some American beer drinkers are avoiding Corona, the beer, amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak, according to a new survey.

A surprising 38 percent of beer drinkers insisted that they would not, under any circumstances, buy Corona as the deadly virus spreads across the globe, according to the survey conducted by 5W Public Relations.
:
:
In fact, 14 percent of respondents who said they regularly consume Corona beer admitted in the survey they would not order the beverage in public.

CDC director downplays claim that coronavirus spread is inevitable
There was also some confusion as 16 percent of those surveyed said they were not sure whether the virus is related to Corona beer.

Yeah, this isn’t Captain Trips. But it should be a real concern with older people with compromised immune systems. I’m worried for my 78-year-old father who is not in the best of health already.

Some light hearted humor for this thread ... especially since futures are currently down -234 or .92%.

I typically check and update my spreadsheet on all my finances and investments at month-end. I'm going to skip it for Feb since it'll be too painful

Americans are avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak, survey finds (https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/)

I, too would be ashamed to order a Corona in public. But that was before the virus.

Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.
Yeah, that's my hometown and everyone is freaking out. Eventually, this is going to hit the US, but hopefully more is known by the time it really gains steam.

This real-time Johns Hopkins map is pretty neat. Especially if you want to pretend this is all a video game.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I've been wondering what the hospitalization rate was and I just saw 16%, with at least 4% in ICU. That's an enormous problem for our medical system.

This real-time Johns Hopkins map is pretty neat. Especially if you want to pretend this is all a video game.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

Thanks, nice tracker graphic.

Think I saw something similar in a zombie movie.

This real-time Johns Hopkins map is pretty neat. Especially if you want to pretend this is all a video game.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I've always wanted to try the board game "Pandemic". I hear it's pretty good.

Some light hearted humor for this thread ... especially since futures are currently down -234 or .92%.

I typically check and update my spreadsheet on all my finances and investments at month-end. I'm going to skip it for Feb since it'll be too painful

Americans are avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak, survey finds (https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/)

There was some payment app years ago that called themselves Isis right before.

Hey, I've played Plague Inc, and I can tell you from experience, that this virus is nowhere near strong enough to kill off the planet. It's a weak ass joke in comparison to some that I've developed.

There was some payment app years ago that called themselves Isis right before.

I remember that!

Pre-Isis Isis, Isis was an Egyptian babe.

Hey, I've played Plague Inc, and I can tell you from experience, that this virus is nowhere near strong enough to kill off the planet. It's a weak ass joke in comparison to some that I've developed.

Yes it is. I love mutating those viruses, especially the stuff that affects the brain.

Look its the beginning. This thing learns that its not strong enough to survive and mutates. Its only a matter of time.

I've always wanted to try the board game "Pandemic". I hear it's pretty good.

There's a Pandemic board game adaptation on Steam. There's also a Plague Inc on Steam.

May have to check them out if we are quarantined.

Some light hearted humor for this thread ...

The Atlantic did a fine job (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/about-corona-poll/607240/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_medium=social&utm_term=2020-02-28T20%3A17%3A47&fbclid=IwAR00pg5ffQUYlhNDWx_zjP8yT8eR_nzDhxxyCUtcXiw-29sF8BOdOAqbQhk) -- notable for the quick turnaround -- on a piece debunking this particular steaming pile of "news"

edit: I ain't mad at you for sharing it, my anger is reserved for the lazy-ass oh-my-lets-live-on-panic-clicks mentality of virtually every "news" organization on the planet these days

The Atlantic did a fine job (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/about-corona-poll/607240/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_medium=social&utm_term=2020-02-28T20%3A17%3A47&fbclid=IwAR00pg5ffQUYlhNDWx_zjP8yT8eR_nzDhxxyCUtcXiw-29sF8BOdOAqbQhk) -- notable for the quick turnaround -- on a piece debunking this particular steaming pile of "news"

edit: I ain't mad at you for sharing it, my anger is reserved for the lazy-ass oh-my-lets-live-on-panic-clicks mentality of virtually every "news" organization on the planet these days

Good article. Thanks.

Well dang, I've gone and gotten sick just in time for the weekend.

Nice knowing you all.

Well dang, I've gone and gotten sick just in time for the weekend.

Nice knowing you all.

Hope you get better. I've been told a nice stroll in the city does wonders for you.

Hope you get better. I've been told a nice stroll in the city does wonders for you.

And people love it it when you cough and sneeze on them. I understand that is a friendly form of greeting in urban areas.

Suspected case a couple towns over from me.

First US death. Trump now stopping travel to Italy and S Korea is certainly needed but too little too late. It appears there are thousands of cases across all of the country now. Take your vitamins all.

First US death. Trump now stopping travel to Italy and S Korea is certainly needed but too little too late. It appears there are thousands of cases across all of the country now. Take your vitamins all.

But I was told he stopped flights days ago?

I’m super stoked about flying to Cali for work on Tuesday.

Wife and I have a trip planned for a friends 50th birthday to Cancun March 21-28th. Grown ups only. We have only paid the deposit of a few hundred dollars up to this point. The balance, a few grand is due next Saturday. We finally breached the topic if we should seriously consider cancelling.

I'm not worried about getting sick, far more worried about not being able to get back in to the US.

I’m super stoked about flying to Cali for work on Tuesday.

One of my closest friends flew to San Diego today, she’s the photographer for a 5000 person convention at the San Diego Convention Center for the next few days. Really bad timing with that one.

Isn't nearly everything within an hour by car?


j/k ;)Tilburg (case 1) yes
Amsterdam (case 2) longer than an hour
Delft (case 3) 15 minutes or so

Time to hog fruit and vegetables?

Wife and I have a trip planned for a friends 50th birthday to Cancun March 21-28th. Grown ups only. We have only paid the deposit of a few hundred dollars up to this point. The balance, a few grand is due next Saturday. We finally breached the topic if we should seriously consider cancelling.

I'm not worried about getting sick, far more worried about not being able to get back in to the US.

We have a trip to Northern Europe scheduled for April - hoping things are stable enough that flights aren't cancelled, but otherwise, hoping that tourist levels are low with people cancelling plans now and over the next few weeks. Traveling to Istanbul while they were invading Syria made a few acquaintances question our choice, but, security was high, crowds were low, people were happy we were there, the trip was spectacular. Also hoping Disneyland crowds are lower when we're there next month. That's kind of my mindset, making the best of whatever the situation is.

Travel disruptions are a concern but I'll just have backup systems in place. Bringing important work with me, making sure I have a plan for the dogs. It's easier without kids at home. All travel carries some risk, I try not to over-exaggerate it and just take whatever logical steps I can to mitigate all risks, and also try to take advantage of others' different risk assessments by finding deals, beating the crowds, etc.

I've been wondering what the hospitalization rate was and I just saw 16%, with at least 4% in ICU. That's an enormous problem for our medical system.

I saw that too. Do you know what it is for the flu?

I know that the mortality rate right now is 10 times the flu.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I'm supposed to teach in Ireland for the month of July and GT is starting to cancel summer programs. Don't want to have to entertain kids in 95 degree ATL weather for a month.

We haven't canceled summer study abroad yet, but the Spring Break programs were killed yesterday.

I'm supposed to teach in Ireland for the month of July and GT is starting to cancel summer programs. Don't want to have to entertain kids in 95 degree ATL weather for a month.

Curious which summer programs are cancelled. Going to Metz for a summer was one of my favorite things about Tech.

Have a trip planned to Hawaii in early April. wife just asked same question especially with number of Asian tourists.

Have a trip planned to Hawaii in early April. wife just asked same question especially with number of Asian tourists.

Yep. We have a trip slated there as well. Still holding out hope this clears up by then.

It would really suck to live in a nursing home facility with an outbreak.

https://apnews.com/f175d89567a26d59cab27725c9e8a0d7
The health officials reported two cases of COVID-19 virus connected to a long-term care facility in the same suburb, Life Care Center of Kirkland. One is a Life Care worker, a woman in her 40s who is in satisfactory condition at a hospital, and the other is a woman in her 70s and a resident at Life Care who is hospitalized in serious condition. Neither had traveled abroad.

“In addition, over 50 individuals associated with Life Care are reportedly ill with respiratory symptoms or hospitalized with pneumonia or other respiratory conditions of unknown cause and are being tested for COVID-19,” Seattle and King County officials said. “Additional positive cases are expected.”

Overlake Medical Center in Bellevue, Washington, said a health care worker from Life Care is a patient at the hospital. The woman, who is in her 40s, was admitted to the hospital Thursday and is in stable condition, the center said.

The after pic is as of Feb 25. This would imply Chinese factories aren't ramped up yet which is no surprise (but would like to see a later pic) and I bet internet usage has spiked.

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967)

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/155CA/production/_111089478_china_trop_2020056.png

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1D4A/production/_111089470_wuhan_trop_2020056.jpg

Curious which summer programs are cancelled. Going to Metz for a summer was one of my favorite things about Tech.

Right now, I believe just the China one, with ones in Japan and South Korea seemingly questionable. Hopefully it won't spread to Ireland, but they've had a case or two and you never know.

Hey everyone, I think I found the answer to combat pollutants and global warming...




Or maybe it was Mother Nature....I've heard she's a real bitch.

It's in the Seattle area now :(

I know that the mortality rate right now is 10 times the flu.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

From Howard Forman:

“People have asked about case fatality rate. Everyone quotes "2%." We do NOT KNOW, with reliability. I believe it will be lower than 2%. In this report, data suggests it is coming closer to 0.7% w/newer cases in China. ”. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

From Howard Forman:

“People have asked about case fatality rate. Everyone quotes "2%." We do NOT KNOW, with reliability. I believe it will be lower than 2%. In this report, data suggests it is coming closer to 0.7% w/newer cases in China. ”. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Best guess is then 7x mortality rate than flu

An assisted living facility is the last place you’d want an outbreak of this virus.

The CDC looks shockingly inept so far. Just off the top of my head there's the bad test, then very few tests, refusal or inability to make American protocols available to doctors, and now we learn that a patient in TX was released by the CDC who then later returned and tested positive.

Congress should quickly dive in to see what's wrong at CDC.

Probably the hundreds of open positions, or being only allowed to discuss and study what the admin says is cool.

Probably the hundreds of open positions, or being only allowed to discuss and study what the admin says is cool.

GOP playbook. Cripple and mismanage the government, then run on the platform that the government sucks.

I just wish it wasn't in the context of a pandemic this time.

Futures up 230 and talk on bloomberg about possible 50 basis point cut. China government takes over big conglomerate Hainan. More fun to come this week I'm sure.

I am starting to wonder if it's not already fairly widespread in the US and we're not noticing because it looks like the flu.

Costco was a mad house yesterday as people appeared to be panic-shopping. The store was sold out of water, toilet paper, and paper towels.

Costco was a mad house yesterday as people appeared to be panic-shopping. The store was sold out of water, toilet paper, and paper towels.

A friend who lives in the town where the virus hit in Oregon went to Costco. Said the lines were literally to the back of the store.

I am starting to wonder if it's not already fairly widespread in the US and we're not noticing because it looks like the flu.

I was thinking the same thing. Wondering the same about China and maybe the asymptomatic or low symptom just not being figured into the 2%. Of course people with a much higher pay grade at the CDC etc have probably considered these things as well. I think it is important to note the CDC's advice vs the mass media. Not sure much more than limit exposure, wash hands, etc have come from them. The mass media is all over 2 deaths, Captain Trips has arrived!

It's definitely more widespread than we know given that there's community spread. We haven't tested many people so far, and when we start testing like SK or Italy we're going to find a lot more cases.

I'm left with the question, just how serious is this?

Is this just another illness like the flu? More serious than the flu?

Should we be freaking out about it?

Is the media hyping it more than it should be?

I have a feeling that unless this thing wipes out large numbers of the world's population, we'll never get a real sense of what this thing is. You won't get the truth from any where.

Being in fairly close proximity to the Washington breakouts, some people around here suspect they've already had it - based on the descriptions of mild cases having a cough and shortness of breath rather than the more varied typical flu symptoms.

I'm left with the question, just how serious is this?

If you are older and have pre-existing conditions that make you vulnerable (there's a list somewhere), pretty serious. Not end of the world though.

Is this just another illness like the flu? More serious than the flu?

For right now, more serious than the flu. Mortality rates and infection rates seem higher. This is based on China data right now so I suspect the %s will go down. (or higher, Iran seems to have higher %s but who knows)

For next year, likely vaccine will be out and so it'll be like the flu.

Should we be freaking out about it?

Because there are quarantines in western-like countries and some panic buying, I suggest you buy extra canned food, soups, rice, pasta, water etc. that you would normally eat anyway (and toilet paper!).

Is the media hyping it more than it should be?

I'd break this down on (1) markets and (2) health to you. Unless there is good news on vaccine progress ...

For markets, I don't think its overhyped at this time with a 12% correction. No doubt supply chain has been impacted (e.g. supply of iPhones) and demand from consumers hurt because they see their savings decrease (me), concerns about job stability, and who wants to fly on an international flight or get on a cruise. There will be reduce profits overall, not sure if its recession level though.

For health, if you are a healthy younger guy and in the US, then probably overhyped. If you are an older person with pre-existing, it seems pretty serious (70+ is 8%, 80+ is 14% mortality; flu overall is .1% but not sure about age breakdown for flu).

I have a feeling that unless this thing wipes out large numbers of the world's population, we'll never get a real sense of what this thing is. You won't get the truth from any where.

China may be fudging nos. But I think it'll come out as the western nations fight this thing.

From what I've gathered, it's essentially a flu that's 5-20 times more deadly and is spread just as easily.

Since the flu kills around 20,000-45,000 a year in this country, the math is sobering. Although note that a lot of people dying of the flu are the same kind of people who would die from this new virus.

Either way, if it spreads, we could be looking at 100k plus deaths.

This is a good podcast(about 25 minutes) that lays out possibilities.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deep-background-with-noah-feldman/id1460055316?i=1000466938203

Being in fairly close proximity to the Washington breakouts, some people around here suspect they've already had it - based on the descriptions of mild cases having a cough and shortness of breath rather than the more varied typical flu symptoms.

I started getting sick at the end of last week and didn't think much of it since my county (Pierce, which sits right below King and I'm 40 minutes from Seattle) hadn't shown any cases yet. That changed yesterday when I read an article that stated they now believe it's been in Washington for up to 6 weeks. I have the symptoms and I'd describe it as an awful cold. The cough sucks and I've had slight shortness of breath and a slight fever. The fever broke last night and today is the first day I've felt a bit better since Friday.

If it's been in Washington spreading for the past 6 weeks, which looks likely now, we can assume it's nearly everywhere by now.

I started getting sick at the end of last week and didn't think much of it since my county (Pierce, which sits right below King and I'm 40 minutes from Seattle) hadn't shown any cases yet. That changed yesterday when I read an article that stated they now believe it's been in Washington for up to 6 weeks. I have the symptoms and I'd describe it as an awful cold. The cough sucks and I've had slight shortness of breath and a slight fever. The fever broke last night and today is the first day I've felt a bit better since Friday.

If it's been in Washington spreading for the past 6 weeks, which looks likely now, we can assume it's nearly everywhere by now.




This also describes my oldest son. He was sick last week, fever, aches, bad sinus issues, broke by the end of the week, but no vomiting like you'd see with the flu. We're in NKY. No cases officially, but it wouldn't surprise me. He's a janitor at a local university and tons have been out sick, employees and students. Nobody else in house has gotten it yet.

The wife has begun getting texts from parents of her students concerned with what may happen in school this week. The kids in her class are grade level K-2 and some of them have compromised immune systems. Being that it is elementary school, this is a troubling situation on most days since there are also children throughout the school who are brought to school despite being obviously sick.

The clip of Trump asking if a good flu vaccine would help against coronavirus is too perfect.

My wife is a Special Ed teacher. I asked her tonight if school had given any guidance on coronavirus and she said nada.

I would think school systems would tell teachers that if they notice any of the symptoms to send kid to nurse and have kid checked out, or an email to parents saying if your kid is sick the kid has to "really, really" stay home (even if you think its just the flu) etc.

No afflicted yet in GA but am surprised at the lack of pro activeness here.

FWIW, I guess Washington State will be our prototype on how (or not) to react to an outbreak. Some schools were closed today.

The wife has begun getting texts from parents of her students concerned with what may happen in school this week. The kids in her class are grade level K-2 and some of them have compromised immune systems. Being that it is elementary school, this is a troubling situation on most days since there are also children throughout the school who are brought to school despite being obviously sick.

The count is now for the state:

2 positive tests, one in Tampa area who just came back from Northern Italy.
5 tests pending
15 tests negative
184 being monitored.

This is a really good tracker of cases.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

The CDC removed the "Tested" stat from their site which I hope is not a sign they are trying to hold back data because they fucked up.

The wife has begun getting texts from parents of her students concerned with what may happen in school this week. The kids in her class are grade level K-2 and some of them have compromised immune systems. Being that it is elementary school, this is a troubling situation on most days since there are also children throughout the school who are brought to school despite being obviously sick.

My wife is a Special Ed teacher. I asked her tonight if school had given any guidance on coronavirus and she said nada.

I would think school systems would tell teachers that if they notice any of the symptoms to send kid to nurse and have kid checked out, or an email to parents saying if your kid is sick the kid has to "really, really" stay home (even if you think its just the flu) etc.

No afflicted yet in GA but am surprised at the lack of pro activeness here.

FWIW, I guess Washington State will be our prototype on how (or not) to react to an outbreak. Some schools were closed today.

My kids school sent out a communication over the weekend basically saying keep your sick kids home. They outlined what they were doing including extra sanatation, making sure kids are more proactive in washing, etc...

I wouldn't be surprised if my kid had it last week. Works at a University as a Janitor, people have been sick all over the place, but his symptoms are a mirror image of what they are talking about. Not the flu, but a fever, body aches, cough, shortness of breath, really bad sinus congestion. The whole thing was bad 3-4 days, by day 5 he was feeling better and the fever didn't last more than a couple days. Of course, there's a whole lot of crap out there like that, but if we believe that it's been in the US and spreading for weeks before the first cases are confirmed it stands to reason that it's far more widespread than we currently know, and as a corollary, that it's far less deadly than the current numbers we are looking at.

Governor Kemp holding a press conference at 10pm, along with all the health and safety heads. I imagine this is to announce cases in Georgia.

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Governor Kemp holding a press conference at 10pm, along with all the health and safety heads. I imagine this is to announce cases in Georgia.


Went to AJC and CNN and did not see anything. Thanks for the heads up, I'll tune in at 10.


BTW - what a great day for the stock markets. Honestly, I still think there is worse to come.

Two cases are in Georgia. Both in the same home. One had recently traveled to Italy.

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Two cases are in Georgia. Both in the same home. One had recently traveled to Italy.


Didn't seem to rise to the level of a last minute meeting, situation under control ... I was expecting more. Probably could have waited till the morning but appreciate their efforts in transparency.

Pence focusing on what's important:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is an actual White House press release praising Trump’s response to coronavirus ... filled with people’s tweets ... <a href="https://t.co/a4Lrwk19Li">pic.twitter.com/a4Lrwk19Li</a></p>&mdash; Nida Khan (@NidaKhanNY) <a href="https://twitter.com/NidaKhanNY/status/1234661752492584960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

My 12 year old came home sick today from schoo. He has a slight fever, terrible cough, headache and nausea.
��

Wife is traveling today Florida. I’m curious to hear how it went. She took airborn and brought Lysol wipes to clean the plane. She’s also in first class so she won’t be so crammed in.

Flying to Cali today. Zero face masks worn in GSO-ATL leg. Even here in Hartsfield, less than 5% wearing masks. People in both airports taking much longer than normal washing hands though. No lines for toilets, but quite a few beelines for sinks when we got off the plane here.

TBH personally I think I'm almost resigned to catching it with all the travelling I do. My wife is a public school teacher, that's another pretty good vector for infection. Sooner or later, it'll be widespread.

In a way, wouldn't it be better to catch it early, get treated if needed (and before system is possibly overwhelmed), build up some immunity (I read that this may not be the case though with people catching it again) before it is widespread in the US?

Am I messed up thinking this way?

This is a really good tracker of cases.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

The CDC removed the "Tested" stat from their site which I hope is not a sign they are trying to hold back data because they fucked up.

That's like a frickin' video game, so weird.

TBH personally I think I'm almost resigned to catching it with all the travelling I do. My wife is a public school teacher, that's another pretty good vector for infection. Sooner or later, it'll be widespread.

In a way, wouldn't it be better to catch it early, get treated if needed (and before system is possibly overwhelmed), build up some immunity (I read that this may not be the case though with people catching it again) before it is widespread in the US?

Am I messed up thinking this way?

I had the same though. Better to catch it now while there are still beds available. That being said, from the sounds of it most of us here wouldn't be in too bad shape.

I am in the same boat as you. My wife travels 2-3 weeks out of the month for work. I am a stay at home dad, but I'm sure my kids would bring it home with them from school.

That's like a frickin' video game, so weird.

Yeah, at first I was like this map is cool. Now I realize how morbid it is and it sucks.

Based on the facebook forwards I am seeing from my MAGA relatives, deciding not to protect yourself and others from the pandemic is now a point of pride because the whole thing is just designed to make Trump look bad.

I don't want to tell the Russians how to go about their business, but I'm starting to suspect that they are playing this game in Settler mode. At least kick it up to Prince, you cowards.

Based on the facebook forwards I am seeing from my MAGA relatives, deciding not to protect yourself and others from the pandemic is now a point of pride because the whole thing is just designed to make Trump look bad.

I don't want to tell the Russians how to go about their business, but I'm starting to suspect that they are playing this game in Settler mode. At least kick it up to Prince, you cowards.



wait are you now saying that republicans WANT the virus?

wait are you now saying that republicans WANT the virus?

No one wants the virus. No one wants others to get the virus.

But I do think that some people (Russian bots, not the Trump administration) are peddling the idea that taking the virus seriously is bad for Trump, so people who support him shouldn't take it too seriously.

The Russians have figured out that they can make 50% of us do anything simply by casting anything as a red state/blue state issue.

When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?

When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?

in order to perform these test, one must first take their head out of their ass

When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?

Insufficient numbers of available test kits, I would imagine.

The CDC actually removed the number of tested row from their public data. There are a number of anecdotal stories about the difficulty in finding a test and the lack of clear criteria given to local providers.

There are a number of anecdotal stories about the difficulty in finding a test and the lack of clear criteria given to local providers.I have every reason to believe those anecdotes are true. This thing is likely far more widespread than we know.

When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?

firing the pandemic team a couple years ago and not replacing them could be a factor...

Did Trump Fire the US Pandemic Response Team? (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/)

I have every reason to believe those anecdotes are true. This thing is likely far more widespread than we know.

I think it's probably all over every state in big numbers right now, which would be very good if true. In that we don't have dead and sick clogging our rivers and whatnot despite its prevalence.

The death rate is much higher than the flu but I don't know how that number is impacted by people not getting tested, people recovering without hospitalization, most of the cases occurring in a place like China, etc.

I think it's probably all over every state in big numbers right now, which would be very good if true. In that we don't have dead and sick clogging our rivers and whatnot despite its prevalence.yup

widespread quiet spread (without widespread serious illness and death) = mathematically very good news, easily misunderstood as scary news

The Russians have figured out that they can make 50% of us do anything simply by casting anything as a red state/blue state issue.

QFT

Wife is traveling today Florida. I’m curious to hear how it went. She took airborn and brought Lysol wipes to clean the plane. She’s also in first class so she won’t be so crammed in.

Flying to Cali today. Zero face masks worn in GSO-ATL leg. Even here in Hartsfield, less than 5% wearing masks. People in both airports taking much longer than normal washing hands though. No lines for toilets, but quite a few beelines for sinks when we got off the plane here.


I traveled yesterday and today domestic and people aren't there, because it's not really that widespread (that they know of). Besides, the masks are really for sick people to not spread the illness as opposed to healthy people. I think that the majority of people see this for what it is, and are being cautious, but most people understand where the true risks are.



That damned 38% of people are avoiding Corona beer is such bullshit. Just to show how shit gets twisted around. I didn't hear the exact question, but early on it was phrased "38% of people won't drink Corona beer." None of that was in the context of would they normally drink it, that I am aware of. That immediately was translated to 38% of people think drinking Corona beer will make you sick. I know it was all supposed to be tongue in cheek, but people read into the numbers what they want to see, instead of critically thinking about it.



I still think it's going to be a here or there thing, and ultimately it'll settle down and people will learn to deal with it.


The CDC actually removed the number of tested row from their public data. There are a number of anecdotal stories about the difficulty in finding a test and the lack of clear criteria given to local providers.




Meanwhile in Korea.....


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/asia/coronavirus-drive-through-south-korea-hnk-intl/index.html

That damned 38% of people are avoiding Corona beer is such bullshit. Just to show how shit gets twisted around. I didn't hear the exact question, but early on it was phrased "38% of people won't drink Corona beer." None of that was in the context of would they normally drink it, that I am aware of. That immediately was translated to 38% of people think drinking Corona beer will make you sick. I know it was all supposed to be tongue in cheek, but people read into the numbers what they want to see, instead of critically thinking about it.



I choose to believe that those poll results were based upon conscious hipster irony.

Edit: If someone bothers me on the street or in a phone call and asks me if I think Corona beer causes the coronavirus I'm probably saying yes.

I have every reason to believe those anecdotes are true. This thing is likely far more widespread than we know.

NYC finds a case on the first day of locally controlled testing. There's no way that's the only case in NYC.

widespread quiet spread (without widespread serious illness and death) = mathematically very good news, easily misunderstood as scary news
Yeah, that’s what I was trying to say. Starting to land in that camp.

Semi humorous side note: flight attendants on the leg to Oakland are holding true to stereotypes. Black female has on plastic gloves as she serves and retrieves. White female picked up my empty water cup with her bare hand, fingers holding to lip of cup where I’d been drinking. ������

Did she take a swig?

Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?

Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?

:D

Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?
All they have to do is throw him in a lake. If he floats, he is a witch.

Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?

well p[ence already wiped his nose with his hand before shaking hands with doctors.


and oh yeah North Korea is shooting people for being infected. Hopefully that won't give stupid any ideas

WHO estimates coronavirus death rate at 3.4 percent – higher than earlier estimates

Well, that's not good.

Well, that's not good.

I wonder if that number goes down once developed nations start to battle it. You have to think the numbers from China are heavily skewing those results.

I wonder if that number goes down once developed nations start to battle it. You have to think the numbers from China are heavily skewing those results.

I actually think Iran, SK and Italy are what has led them to increase the estimate.

I'd think, since the number of infected is likely grossly under-reported, the mortality rate is actually quite a bit lower than 2-3%

Based on the facebook forwards I am seeing from my MAGA relatives, deciding not to protect yourself and others from the pandemic is now a point of pride because the whole thing is just designed to make Trump look bad.

I don't want to tell the Russians how to go about their business, but I'm starting to suspect that they are playing this game in Settler mode. At least kick it up to Prince, you cowards.

Trump did allude to this whole thing being a hoax at a rally the other day. And he has criticized media for blowing the story out of proportion. I do think some of the MAGA folks genuinely believe that anything negative happening in this country is a plot to hurt Dear Leader.

There is a briefing right now with the VP. They aren't allowing audio or video for some reason.

Says you don't need to buy masks which I've heard from other health professionals. 77 domestic cases, 3 more deaths today (9 total).