I'd expect more stay-at-homes to be coming this weekend. Next week figures to one where most hospitals start getting slammed

I am not religious, but the Pope giving Blessings on the empty square gives me the shills ...

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/image/sz.1.4860418?v=1585336148


And since it is important not to loose sight of small successes and signs of hope:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/coronavirus-good-news-kindness.html

just passed 100k cases in the US

bars (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html)

The small story at the bottom shows the huge issues hospitals face. Ideally every admission (broken foot, stroke whatever) would need to be tested and treated as if he had it until the result is ready. And even after, there cant be personnel overlap ideally and especially with areas like oncology etc.

Also, another reason why those fast-tests or antibody tests better be close to 100% accurate.

With North Carolina moving to stay at home, that leaves 23 states that have not (by my count), with 4 states not even having social distancing in place. The current trajectories for US cases has them doubling every 2-3 days.

just passed 100k cases in the US
Not to pick on Cartman, but what is the point of these case numbers? We all know the number of people with the virus in the US is well over a million, right? If tomorrow, NY decides not to test that many people (or tests the wrong people) and they only increase by 500 - are we all going to feel better?

The only things that matter at this point are deaths related to it (as best as we can tie them) and the hospitalization rate. If we got an influx of tests and see the US numbers increase to 250K tomorrow - but don't see a non-proportionate spike in deaths or high hospital rates - who cares. If, instead, we only see an increase of 100 tomorrow but the hospitals are overrun and the numbers of deaths associated goes up 3,000, that would really worry me.

It's just funny to me how these numbers are overtaking everyone's focus when they are almost insignificant. It's like a dark room full of 100 potential alcoholics and we shine a flashlight on 4 guys. If only one is drinking, we think we are solving alcoholism and rejoice! If three are drinking, we think the wold world is going to have massive liver issues and panic. Until we can massively increase the testing rate (which I'm not sure is even feasible), all these numbers aren't very indicative of what's really going on.

Our governor refuses to issue the stay at home order.

He just tells people to social distance. He is about personal responsibility. And he said the mayors of the cities are doing a good job.
Meanwhile the cases are skyrocketing.

And as an example of why this is dumb. My SIL, BIL and a friend traveled from their small town in south central MO to Illinoi and then to St Charles to help her move.

Yeah, good call governor.

I'm with Arles on this one.

Number of ICU beds/ventilators available vs. number of beds/ventilators occupied by COVID patients is what matters at this point. Based on what NY stated yesterday, the COVID patients are in these beds for a significant amount of time compared to what they see from non-COVID patients. (I don't recall the exact number off the top of my head).

Our governor refuses to issue the stay at home order.

He just tells people to social distance. He is about personal responsibility. And he said the mayors of the cities are doing a good job.
Meanwhile the cases are skyrocketing.

And as an example of why this is dumb. My SIL, BIL and a friend traveled from their small town in south central MO to Illinoi and then to St Charles to help her move.

Yeah, good call governor.

Same thing in Georgia, governor had a worthless town hall the other night and the director of health had no idea how many respirators we had or needed. Meanwhile the state is 7th in deaths.

Not to pick on Cartman, but what is the point of these case numbers? We all know the number of people with the virus in the US is well over a million, right? If tomorrow, NY decides not to test that many people (or tests the wrong people) and they only increase by 500 - are we all going to feel better?

The only things that matter at this point are deaths related to it (as best as we can tie them) and the hospitalization rate. If we got an influx of tests and see the US numbers increase to 250K tomorrow - but don't see a non-proportionate spike in deaths or high hospital rates - who cares. If, instead, we only see an increase of 100 tomorrow but the hospitals are overrun and the numbers of deaths associated goes up 3,000, that would really worry me.

It's just funny to me how these numbers are overtaking everyone's focus when they are almost insignificant. It's like a dark room full of 100 potential alcoholics and we shine a flashlight on 4 guys. If only one is drinking, we think we are solving alcoholism and rejoice! If three are drinking, we think the wold world is going to have massive liver issues and panic. Until we can massively increase the testing rate (which I'm not sure is even feasible), all these numbers aren't very indicative of what's really going on.

Positives/Test would also be usefull. Not perfect (tests arent distributed equally each day between likely/less likely cases), but that number going down or at least not ul would be sth that is telling.

Italy f.e. Between 5 and 6k new positives since March 19th but Tests have gone from 15-20k to 25 to now 33 yesterday and today. Meaning the new infections can actually be presumed to be down considerable, especially if seen on a curve (how much it goes in terms of % day to day)

Same is happening in Germany right now as capacity is increased in labs massively (and they were high anyway).

I don't think we know the number is well over a million. We know that we don't know what the real number is, and that's about it. But on the general point, I've definitely been in agreement for a while now. I think it's really just media-driven; gives them something to report, which leads to people talking about it, etc.

'We just don't know' is hard to build a narrative around.

Interesting side note, look at the tiny island nation Faroe Islands, about 50k inhabitants:

Corona Ã* Føroyum (https://corona.fo/?_l=en)

Their 144 cases are coming out to twice the per-capita for Italy. And consider their remoteness and how much more unlikely it was for it to get there in numbers via travellers and commuters.

But their 3000 tests means 1) only 4.5% of tests have been positive (22 for Italy) and 2) that they have are at 6,5% tests per inhabitant (Italy 0,6%). So in essence more tests per capita and less positive per total test. But the number of 'cases' is high for how tiny the populus is.

Now, not every tests means a person (health care workers and quarantined get multiples) but it shows you why tests/cases have to be loookes at together.

The comment about positive test rate is making feel ok right now. In PA where they have been reporting bout it has stayed around 10% this whole time, so the increase in cases in just a resulting of testing.

Our governor refuses to issue the stay at home order.

He just tells people to social distance. He is about personal responsibility. And he said the mayors of the cities are doing a good job.
Meanwhile the cases are skyrocketing.

And as an example of why this is dumb. My SIL, BIL and a friend traveled from their small town in south central MO to Illinoi and then to St Charles to help her move.

Yeah, good call governor.

Am I wrong to say that those people are practicing personal responsibility but not social responsibility?

Florida's governor is taking an interesting tactic. He has also refused to issue a shelter in place order but he is fine with local officials doing it.

So far, the counties that include Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Gainesville, Orlando, and the state capital Tallahassee have all established some sort of shelter in place order.

He started off by saying he saw how people were not listening to the suggested shelter in place orders in other places so why would he do the same here. The numbers rose

He then said most of the cases were pocketed in certain areas of the state and he did not want to stop someone from working in one part of the state that did not have any issues. The numbers rose.

He then said New Yorkers who ran away from the shelter in place order up there to fly down here were driving the numbers up. He asked those New Yorkers to self quarantine for 14 days. And the numbers rose.

Now he has said that New Orleans residents are running away from there and driving to Florida and that is driving the numbers up. So he is going to set up a checkpoint or checkpoints on I-10 so that the highway patrol can let them know they need to self quarantine for 14 days. Not sure if he is setting up checkpoints on the other roads that lead into Florida or just I-10.

Meanwhile, he has also acknowledge that, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, people continue to “violate social-distancing requirements as people tie boats together and have group parties.” I am sure what the penalties are for not following the requirements.

I guess we shall see where the numbers go from here.

Coronavirus: How do 3 million newly unemployed people get health care? - Vox (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/27/21197279/coronavirus-us-unemployment-health-insurance)

It still boggles my mind healthcare is such an issue in a country as rich as the US


The US also seems at even more risk of people dying with those ominous pre-existing conditions in combination with Covid19 because a lot will have them undiagnosed or not properly managed due to costs.

Coronavirus: How do 3 million newly unemployed people get health care? - Vox (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/27/21197279/coronavirus-us-unemployment-health-insurance)

It still boggles my mind healthcare is such an issue in a country as rich as the US

The US also seems at even more risk of people dying with those ominous pre-existing conditions in combination with Covid19 because a lot will have them undiagnosed or not properly managed due to costs.

Lancaster teen whose death was initially tied to COVID-19 died after being denied treatment at care center: Mayor | KTLA (https://ktla.com/news/local-news/lancaster-mayor-releases-new-details-about-17-year-old-boy-whose-death-was-initially-tied-to-covid-19/)

Also imagine how many people who will not go to a doctor to get tested because they feel they can't afford it and will spread it to others. It's not just hurting people without it, it causes people to spread it easier to others.

Oh one more thing because, Florida. A hospital in Hialeah is/was charging $150 per test. The federal government has said the tests are free.

Who's up for some 4 on 4 then?

Abbott is supposed to start shipping 50k tests a day next week that provide a positive response in 5 minutes and a negative in 13 minutes.

Abbott is supposed to start shipping 50k tests a day next week that provide a positive response in 5 minutes and a negative in 13 minutes.

If you take one of these tests, how would you feel at the 6 minute mark?

Abbott is supposed to start shipping 50k tests a day next week that provide a positive response in 5 minutes and a negative in 13 minutes.

HEY ABBOTT!!!!

HEY ABBOTT!!!!


"Who's up first?"

"Yes he is"

"If you start that routine up, I'll smack you."

edit: "So Who's tested first, what's in quarantine and I don't know's in ICU???" "Exactly!"

So China has 3-4x more people than the USA. But we have passed them a little over a month into this mess while they showed massive improvement about 6 weeks after it first struck. What exactly worked for them that is slowing it down? I keep hoping in a couple weeks we will see that same progress but not feeling overly optimistic right now.

So China has 3-4x more people than the USA. But we have passed them a little over a month into this mess while they showed massive improvement about 6 weeks after is first struck. What exactly worked for them that is slowing it down? I keep hoping in a couple weeks we will see that same progress but not feeling overly optimistic right now.

Assuming you believe the numbers from China, which is a big assumption, it boils down to culture.

Freedom and sense of entitlement are a horrible combination.

They were putting folks in complete lockdown. (one person who had grandparents over there actually said no one was able to leave their house, but each block had a runner who would get them groceries and stuff)

Assuming you believe the numbers from China, which is a big assumption, it boils down to culture.

Freedom and sense of entitlement are a horrible combination.

Well. They seem to be opening their business back up

China's Kind of Back to Work, but the Coronavirus Economic Recovery Will Be Ugly (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/25/europe-china-us-economic-recovery-v-coronavirus/)

The consumer arent buying yet....but its a start....

We are sitting around trying to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

At least 100 inmates and 80 COs at Rikers are confirmed positive.

Coronavirus: Add 'Zoom-bombing' to the stresses overwhelming schools - Los Angeles Times (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-25/zoombombing-usc-classes-interrupted-racist-remarks)

We have also had reports in our local school district.

Unfortunately there will always be people looking to make mischief wherever and whenever. There are a lot of different ways to prevent this from happening with the most basic one being to add a password to your meeting.

Best Practices for Securing Your Virtual ClassroomÂ* - Zoom Blog (https://blog.zoom.us/wordpress/2020/03/27/best-practices-for-securing-your-virtual-classroom/)

Full disclosure I work at Zoom.

One thing that Kirk Herbstreit mentioned is that he'd be shocked if the NFL and college football opened up normally with fans this fall. I can understand why (The Atalanta-Valencia game is thought to have spread COVID-19 to up to 40,000 fans).

Do we really want gatherings of 100,000 plus people while there's still not a vaccine for it?

(I think there will be fans, at least at the beginning.. )

One thing that Kirk Herbstreit mentioned is that he'd be shocked if the NFL and college football opened up normally with fans this fall. I can understand why (The Atalanta-Valencia game is thought to have spread COVID-19 to up to 40,000 fans).

Do we really want gatherings of 100,000 plus people while there's still not a vaccine for it?

(I think there will be fans, at least at the beginning.. )

It was either CNN or MSNBC, they interviewed a former head of (something relevant). The guy said he was optimistic there would be therapeutics available to treat the virus by this summer and listed out some stuff in development.

I don't think we have to have a vaccine, we need treatment for the symptoms.

I think a lot of that depends on how much summer changes things. It could be that we get pounded but then by late May it's largely gone, returning in the fall. Football would be a nightmare scenario for that, and I feel compelled to mention again that the fall outbreak in 1918 killed more than the one in the spring because people assumed it was no longer a threat and stopped being careful. And who knows what drugs will be approved as therapeutic/preventative by then and how much of an impact that has.

Dola,

I don't think we have to have a vaccine, we need treatment for the symptoms.

We kind of posted about the same thing, but I think we do need to have a vaccine. Ofc it depends on how effective the symptoms treatments really are, but they'd have to be awfully darned impressive by any relative comparison, to the point of keeping most people who have to go to the hospital now out of that scenario. I'll be surprised if any are that good at helping people breathe when the virus screws over their lungs, but I would be extremely happy to be wrong.

So China has 3-4x more people than the USA. But we have passed them a little over a month into this mess while they showed massive improvement about 6 weeks after it first struck. What exactly worked for them that is slowing it down?

What works for them is having a totalitarian government who is using the military and drone technology to enforce quarantines. Somehow, I don't think that methodology would be well received by our citizens.

OMG New York up to like 46,000 infected :(

So China has 3-4x more people than the USA. But we have passed them a little over a month into this mess while they showed massive improvement about 6 weeks after it first struck. What exactly worked for them that is slowing it down? I keep hoping in a couple weeks we will see that same progress but not feeling overly optimistic right now.

As has been pointed out, there are reasons to be skeptical about information coming out of China for how well they have controlled things.

Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally – Shanghaiist (http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/)

They had apparently opened cinemas 10 days ago, but are now closing them in the whole country for an indefinite period of time.

Having said that, they also tested a lot of people, built hospitals quickly to add capacity, and aggressively enforced quarantines, even to the point of bolting some people in their apartments.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cAllvKXOC0w" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/c8fYSW53WsM" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

In a worrying sign of what is likely to come, the ExCel Arena in London is being turned into a temporary 4000 bed hospital, the Municipality Stadium in Wales into a 2000 bed hospital, and the Manchester Arena and NEC in Birmingham on standby to do the same (I think it was 3000 and 2000 beds respectively)

It looks like we are about to be hit hard :(

I'm curious why grocery stores haven't gone to 100% curbside. Seems if they shifted all their resources to that as opposed to cashiers, stockers, etc...it would be safer for all.

To do that, you have to have a pretty good system of inventory and ordering. Easy with something like boxes of cereal, less for for fruit and meat.

(I do not know if current online ordering allows for this. Target doesn't let you do meat with order pickup).

Not only that, but you'd need a LOT more employees to do what customers do now - grabbing what they need, filling the carts, self check-out, etc. When your currently employees are working extra hours and still sometimes can't keep up with the demand, scaling it up to that level isn't feasible in the short-term.

All of those things still have to happen when people are ordering online.

Plus most of these services are pretty new and don't have the capability of things like real-time info on what's in stock. It's basically just sending the store a list and having the employees do what you would do in the store, with the extra steps of taking it to your car or delivering it and the administrative tasks involved with opening and closing those requests (and responding to errors and complaints and IT issues). Edit: The role of "shopper" (the employee who goes around the shelves and fills your orders) has increased a ton and has strained overall staff. It's party why they're limiting hours. They need more time for people just to do their regular job like stocking the shelves, sweeping the floors, and the extra disinfecting they're doing.

Amazon is doing this stuff pretty efficiently with Whole Foods because that's their whole business, but most grocery stores just don't have that technology to make this run efficiently with fewer workers. Walmart ended up cancelling all pending online grocery orders a few days ago because it just couldn't fill them all with the stock and staff it had available.

Plus in my state, the stores that have been hit the hardest are the cheapest stores like WINCO. The people that are already food-insecure or more likely to shop there. Not everybody has internet or even a stable housing situation. The libraries closing cutoff internet access for many people. Going to online-only ordering would cut the food supply off for a lot of Americans.

Kroger converts store to pickup-only service | Grocery Dive (https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-converts-store-to-pickup-only-service/574952/)

Happening now. My wife, who knows more about this stuff than anyone, her entire business is grocery and pharmacy, says it went really well.

Kroger converts store to pickup-only service | Grocery Dive (https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-converts-store-to-pickup-only-service/574952/)

Happening now. My wife, who knows more about this stuff than anyone, her entire business is grocery and pharmacy, says it went really well.




Kroger pick up couldn't fill 35% (about $80 worth) of our order from yesterday. My wife ended up going in anyway and was able to pick up a lot of what they ended up not being able to fill, plus more.



Pickup is a great concept, but we've had plenty of problems with it. From kids now knowing the difference between a yam and a sweet potato to not knowing where to find a product. I can't tell you how many times I went in and grabbed the "item we don't have" off the shelves to head home. You take what you get a lot of the time.

Kroger pick up couldn't fill 35% (about $80 worth) of our order from yesterday. My wife ended up going in anyway and was able to pick up a lot of what they ended up not being able to fill, plus more.



Pickup is a great concept, but we've had plenty of problems with it. From kids now knowing the difference between a yam and a sweet potato to not knowing where to find a product. I can't tell you how many times I went in and grabbed the "item we don't have" off the shelves to head home. You take what you get a lot of the time.

I would rather take an odd substitution then go in to the store. For some strange reason the thought of going in to a grocery store horrifies me.

I know your situation is different due to your wifes dietary needs so that would complicate things.

I would rather take an odd substitution then go in to the store. For some strange reason the thought of going in to a grocery store horrifies me.

I know your situation is different due to your wifes dietary needs so that would complicate things.


That's just it. There were no subs. Usually there's like 4 items to sub or they are out of. This was 5 full pages of paper. They were out and didn't sub anything. Things like fruit, veggies, vegan products only she can eat, soap, etc. Across the board. She spends hours planning the menus and shopping list. So that much gone is critical.

Remember when I said that if the airlines needed to they could be back up and running in a couple weeks.


Yeah, that ship sailed now. They are all committing to the long run now. So things are getting scaled back and commitments to employees are now bearing an expense that will need months to come to fruition. So it's not going to be happening fast now. Buckle up.

We were able to order produce from a local wholesaler who delivered. Maybe look for something like that. We have to order a large amount so 4 families went in together and I divided it up and left it on my porch. . .

My chest and back in my lung area started hurting a bit in the last couple hours. I have no cough, but I could feel stuff a couple times. I have been holding my breath for the last couple weeks, just as a baseline. Dont seem to have lost any breath of my baseline. My daughter has a phlegmy cough. Hoping Im just getting something from her.
No fever, no cough. But damn, Im a little worried right now.

Kroger converts store to pickup-only service | Grocery Dive (https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-converts-store-to-pickup-only-service/574952/)

Happening now. My wife, who knows more about this stuff than anyone, her entire business is grocery and pharmacy, says it went really well.I'm all about social distancing and doing what I can, but I'd drive all the way across town to the store that lets me pick my own meat before I let someone choose it. Definitely any store in our semi-proximity that did this as the only option would lose some business.

Kroger converts store to pickup-only service | Grocery Dive

Happening now. My wife, who knows more about this stuff than anyone, her entire business is grocery and pharmacy, says it went really well.

I'm glad they are trying it and I hope it works out and can be expanded, but in terms of the large scale I'll definitely believe it when I see it. I have a brother who has worked at a local store of a different chain for years, and I've seen & heard nothing that would indicate this is actually feasible. Even if it only works in isolates spots though, still better than nothing.

No fever, no cough. But damn, Im a little worried right now.

:(

Trump asked ex-Yankee Alex Rodriguez for coronavirus advice (https://thehill.com/homenews/media/489989-trump-asked-ex-yankee-alex-rodriguez-for-coronavirus-advice-report)

Trump asked ex-Yankee Alex Rodriguez for coronavirus advice (https://thehill.com/homenews/media/489989-trump-asked-ex-yankee-alex-rodriguez-for-coronavirus-advice-report)

But there's no way he could have learned anything talking to the four living ex-Presidents.

One of our contracts managers hospitalised this afternoon with suspected CV-19. He works from a different office base than me, and I don’t know him well, but it’s getting closer... :(

This is the message my colleague sent us all (he was confirmed as having CV-19), which I think is worth sharing

Hello, very weak but I think I've turned the corner, well I hope so, I cant explain how awful it is, I know now why weak and elderly lose their lives.
Have pneumonia on left lung.
All I can say more than ever is stay safe and stay home .

But there's no way he could have learned anything talking to the four living ex-Presidents.

That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.

What would've W done!


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z3p9y_OEAdc" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.

Definitely dodge the virus.

https://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/abc_george_bush_shoe_wy_140411.gif

This is a little excerpt from the book I am reading atm (cover and scroll right for the excerpt)... clearly coincidence?

<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/1IK6LoM"><a href="//imgur.com/a/1IK6LoM"></a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Travis Akers on Twitter: "This picture is from 3pm today.

You can see exactly where Duval County ends and St. John’s County begins.

All beaches in Duval are closed, while St. John’s only blocked parking at the beach.

Gov. DeSantis needs to order a state-wide closure of all Florida beaches.… https://t.co/aH1W8TGntg" (https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1243990179557359616?s=20)

Monday the US hit 100 deaths. Today we hit 2,000. Stay safe out there frens.

In a week or so we're going to have twice as many cases as Italy.

I'm not sure what this guy is thinking. I get not wanting to put the cities/country under stay-at-home but to call it "a little flu" seems way too lackadaisical.

https://apnews.com/b21a296383694c6726d03e027134daf1
RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Even as coronavirus cases mount in Latin America’s largest nation, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has staked out the most deliberately dismissive position of any major world leader, calling the pandemic a momentary, minor problem and saying strong measures to contain it are unnecessary.

Bolsonaro says his response to the disease matches that of President Donald Trump in the U.S., but the Brazilian leader has gone further, labeling the virus as “a little flu” and saying state governors’ aggressive measures to halt the disease were crimes.

On Thursday, Bolsonaro told reporters in the capital, Brasilia, that he feels Brazilians’ natural immunity will protect the nation.

“The Brazilian needs to be studied. He doesn’t catch anything. You see a guy jumping into sewage, diving in, right? Nothing happens to him. I think a lot of people were already infected in Brazil, weeks or months ago, and they already have the antibodies that help it not proliferate,” Bolsonaro said. “I’m hopeful that’s really a reality.”

wow I sure hope Brazil's people vote him out quickly for that and what he is doing to the Amazon.

World Health Organization encourages playing video games during coronavirus pandemic (https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2020/03/29/world-health-organization-encourages-playing-video-games-during-coronavirus-pandemic/)

Well if WHO says it's okay, I better get going.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The first US death from the coronavirus was February 29. The 1000th death was Thursday. The 2000th death was today.</p>&mdash; Christopher J. Hale (@chrisjollyhale) <a href="https://twitter.com/chrisjollyhale/status/1244045386341404680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.

A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.

I think the point was more about the exponential effects.

A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.

Fauci predicts 100K-200K US deaths; Spain, Italy demand help | PBS NewsHour Weekend (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/spain-italy-demand-eu-virus-help-new-yorkers-avoid-travel)

A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.


How about a planet of 8 billion? Once we start getting into the million people a day infected (if we actually get that far), the death numbers could be astounding.

Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.

How about a planet of 8 billion? Once we start getting into the million people a day infected (if we actually get that far), the death numbers could be astounding.

When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.

When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.


True, but a million deaths a day, or 100 million all together...there's never been anything in our lifetime, or that of our parents or grandparents that even comes close to that sort of carnage is there?

Not in terms of numbers of people. That would be enough to actually cause world population to shrink. Proportionally, something like WW2 was worse (approximately 3% of the world's population at the time was wiped out).

Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.

This becomes the reason people go out and get others sick. We think of it as no big deal.

This is a highly contagious virus.

My issue is some people will get it and it won't be a big deal, and perhaps they'll be immune afterwards; or their body will be able to handle the effects better should they get sick again.

But for some, it'll be a one and dead. Worse, you could be admitted to the hospital only to be considered a non-survivable and not get treatment.

We are obsessing because it affects everyone in different ways and there is no ability to fight contamination unless you stay isolated.

That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.

eff Dumbya

True, but a million deaths a day, or 100 million all together...there's never been anything in our lifetime, or that of our parents or grandparents that even comes close to that sort of carnage is there?

Wasn't it Stalin who said one death is a tragedy but a million is a statistic.

Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.

I feel like this line of thinking is what got us here. We have heard so many variations of

"there are only X people infected"

"more people die from the flu"

"it isn't in my area"

statements like this make people not take it seriously until it is too late and here we are.

Those are two totally different things. I'm aware that it's a serious issue, I'm isolating as much as I can - only time I go anywhere is to get groceries every three days. I don't think having a sensible comparative perspective on the casualty numbers we've seen so far equals saying the virus isn't a big deal and people shouldn't take it seriously. I've been trying to get others to see that it is in fact that big of a deal, both in terms of those parts of my extended family who think the restrictions are an overreach and with those on this forum who have expressed that opinion.

In other words, I don't think taking proper precautions is any way in conflict with not going into panic territory. We need to do both.

Well that explains Trump's new conciliatory tone towards China.

Inside the start of the great virus airlift (https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-airlift-masks-medical-supplies-1d1913bf-744e-41cf-895c-d8934afa2c36.html)

Day 14 of Enhanced Community Quarantine here in the Island of Luzon in the Philippines. 1,418 confirmed cases, 71 deaths. April 14 is still quite some time away, and they are probably considering extending the quarantine to May.

Still surreal how they've managed to convince 14 million people in Metro Manila, and 50 million people in Luzon to generally stay at home. I think we're just looking at the numbers in China, Italy and the US, and are cooperating to hopefully stop this from spreading too fast. :/

Here's a nice website of weekly cases plotted to total cases, to show the trends of each country:
Covid Trends (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/)

I've only left the house two times in the last two weeks, both for grocery and medicine shopping.

Hope you guys are staying safe.

Remember that whatever number we end up at it is a) only the official count (even Italy has indications this is by far not the real total, France f.e. is not counting deaths in Retirement homes so far) and b) it will happen despite throwing the kitchen sink at the bastard.

Yes, 500 a day for the US is "not that bad" in the big scheme of things but, putting aside that this will be way more before long*, this will be the number taking into account all measures and highly increased equipment.

*Remember that Italy has only 60 mio inhabitants. 200 there is the same per Capita as 1k in the US.

eff Dumbya

But he did have mad dodging skillz.

Let this run through with business at usual like we do the seasonal flu and this could conceivably double the yearly mortality in a lot of places (it is currently still doubling the daily deaths in Lombardy and Madrid. Imagine what could happen in Mumbai or Nairobi. Remember that the only real medical treatment is ventilating people and 99% of the world has much less access to those than the countries hit first right now.
Not to mention even we struggle to get basic protection for Medical Personnel in hospitals and especially retirement homes. And we are buiying up the world supply at top dollar. You think anybody in Africa is able to get even 1% of what they could need ?

Lombardy is currently averaging more confirmed Covid19 deaths a day than they usually have dying from all causes. And there are undoubtedly connected deaths not recorded, some small towns have seen 300% increases for March even after accounting for the officially diagnosed Covid19 deaths.

If this is not largely kept out of Africa or India and they cant get supplies because the western world is still busy, i do not want to even think about numbers there. Yes, they have a younger populations but a lot higher percentage of cases for those will die without access to ventilators.

Even if medication is found, anybody think this will be available in large enough quantities there ?

When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.

What is your point.? That 100 million dead is not worth shutting down economies for a bit and sucking it up on the market?

Those are two totally different things. I'm aware that it's a serious issue, I'm isolating as much as I can - only time I go anywhere is to get groceries every three days. I don't think having a sensible comparative perspective on the casualty numbers we've seen so far equals saying the virus isn't a big deal and people shouldn't take it seriously. I've been trying to get others to see that it is in fact that big of a deal, both in terms of those parts of my extended family who think the restrictions are an overreach and with those on this forum who have expressed that opinion.

In other words, I don't think taking proper precautions is any way in conflict with not going into panic territory. We need to do both.

I hear ya. I'm following the rules but I will look for the good news every day, and that includes putting things in context. 100k-200k U.S. deaths would be a LOT better than what we thought was possible a few weeks (when 2.2 million was the high-end projection). That's just how my brain is going to process that information. I need to have hope so I'm going to look for it wherever I can.

We're all just wired differently in that regard (overlapping here with the mental health thread). My father is an epic pessimist. That was so frustrating growing up. Every time I expressed something positive about an accomplishment, or a hope for the future, he'd explain why I was wrong to be happy or hopeful. That was his coping mechanism for shit he went through I'm sure, but it always stung for me, and it eventually kept us distant to a degree that still exists today. I don't want to share anything positive about my life with him because he might shoot it down, and I don't want to share anything negative about my life with him because I don't want him to feel validated about his pessimism.

I still feel that sting in other contexts, even now. You have to be careful expressing optimism in times like this, because it upsets people who are just wired differently. But, like you said, looking for hope doesn't mean I'm having house parties or not taking precautions. It doesn't mean I think 100k-200k dead is no big deal. I just want to get through today and feel good enough to do something positive and productive. It's a weird feeling to know that I have to be cautious about expressing hope and optimism. But I have to understand the different perspectives of those around me and that they have different coping mechanisms. And understand how isolating and divisive challenges like this can be, and to find other ways to be human and find and share that hope.

If we end up in this 100-200k range of fatalities in the US I will be extremely grateful that we took enough action to avoid worst case scenarios b/c we know it could have certainly been 1 million+ in the US alone. At the same time I will still feel devastated knowing that we allowed far more to die that was necessary and the only reason was sheer incompetence and willful ignorance.

It's definitely a complicated thing.

And it will also lull people into a false sense of security (ala Y2K). "We did too much and hurt ourselves in others ways just for this?!?"


SI

Wasn't it Stalin who said one death is a tragedy but a million is a statistic.

Sounds right, pretty sure FB tells me the approximate conversion rate is 1 blue life = 1 million civilians.

I'm a little moderate on that end of things. It's inevitable that the actions taken to limit coronavirus deaths will also have directly and indirectly caused other premature deaths. I'll be hard-pressed to say we ultimately waited way too long, didn't do enough, etc. unless we have an extended period of exceeding medical capacity and US deaths in the millions. This may well still happen, but I think the casualties on the economic side, while ultimately unmeasurable, are likely to reach six figures as well.

I'm a little moderate on that end of things. It's inevitable that the actions taken to limit coronavirus deaths will also have directly and indirectly caused other premature deaths. I'll be hard-pressed to say we ultimately waited way too long, didn't do enough, etc. unless we have an extended period of exceeding medical capacity and US deaths in the millions. This may well still happen, but I think the casualties on the economic side, while ultimately unmeasurable, are likely to reach six figures as well.

Acting too late and having hospitals overstretched would also carry a knock-on effect though. Those patients are not going to be treated in a vacuum. And the more there are at the same time and the longer that is the case, the less space and care available across the board. Doctors and Nurses getting sick and contagious, too.

So in reality it is more likely you chose between those 2 'side-effects' (economy vs lack of general medical care).

And i don't think acting early and decicively would hurt the economy more than waiting or simply being too late either. At the end, those that let the famous 'curve' get steepest (wittingly or unwittingly) will have the worst drop economically as they will then have to shut down longer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/alabama-governor-wont-order-shelter-in-place-because-we-are-not-california-by-population-its-worse/

Seems like a sound plan.

Good friend of mine had a friend of hers die from it today. Otherwise healthy guy in his mid 40s

Who knows if he'll stick with this new, new plan, but it's good that Trump is now looking at the end of April at least for relaxing recommendations.

we just got an emergency phone notification: "anyone entering RI after out-of-state travel for non-work purpose must quarantine 14 days"

edit: considering I live about a half mile from the state line.. Um...

Maybe Fauci finally got to him about how serious this is. Another 30 days is the right thing to do. And he was even talking about June 1 for the end of the curve so maybe it'll go one more month after that.

There seems to be an increasing penchant to link to stuff that is on subscription-only sites that I, and assumedly others, have no intention of subscribing to. It seems more productive to me to provide a summary or relevant snippet, unless you don't want some of the people in the thread to read it but in that case why post about it in the first place.

There seems to be an increasing penchant to link to stuff that is on subscription-only sites that I, and assumedly others, have no intention of subscribing to. It seems more productive to me to provide a summary or relevant snippet, unless you don't want some of the people in the thread to read it but in that case why post about it in the first place.


From the above wapo article.



<section>Millions of Americans continue to live under state-issued stay-at-home orders, an effort to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?tid=lk_inline_manual_2&itid=lk_inline_manual_2) that has infected about 90,000 people in the United States. By containing the spread, officials hope to better understand the scope of the virus’s reach and reduce the strain on hospitals from an influx of new cases.

</section>
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) doesn’t seem to have a sense of urgency about implementing a similar order in her state.

“Y’all, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York state, we are not California,” she said (https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/2020/03/26/coronavirus-ivey-says-right-now-not-time-statewide-shelter-place-order/2922242001/) on Thursday, according to the Montgomery Advertiser. “Right now is not the time to order people to shelter in place.”

From wapo re: Louisiana governor

The governor said he thinks Mardi Gras, on Feb. 25 this year, contributed to the spread of the virus but that officials never considered canceling celebrations.

“If you’ll go back, you will see that the federal government was saying things were well under control,” he said.

So yea, good luck with that Alabama...

Just the picture from that Alabama press conference sucks confidence out of me.

https://i.imgur.com/hzguGQI.png

It looks like they're in a back corner of a bank. And check out those two goons.

But he did have mad dodging skillz.

I'll concede that point

Sorry if this has been posted already, I don't always follow the thread:


Country music star Joe Diffie has died from the Coronavirus at age 63

We had dinner tonight with friends, one of whom is a pulmonologist. He's done as much independent research as he has been able to above and beyond the guidance from CDC/WHO/etc. He's definitely extremely concerned. Probably the most chilling thing he said is that hospitals could be overwhelmed to the point of "this patient needs to be on a life support system, but all of them are currently in use and we can't get any more."So...the connection here is that he (let's call him "Brad") and his wife ("Brenda") co-lead the community group we're a part of through our church. (Community groups consist of 4-8 family units that meet weekly for bible study, prayer, sharing what's going on in our lives, etc.) Our CG hadn't met since 3/8; tonight was the first virtual/Zoom meeting. We've been in the group for 2+ years, and tonight was the first time I've seen "Brenda" cry. ("Brad" wasn't in attendance because he was at the hospital.)

He has worked 12-hour shifts for--I think she said--every day for the last 7 days. She said "he wears what looks like a space suit to work." They have three children--two school-aged, and a two-year-old. She is trying to home school the older two while managing a toddler and worrying that the entire family may already have the virus. She is used to seeing her mother almost daily, but hasn't seen her in 3ish weeks. She has no help dealing with the kids, as her husband is on the front lines every day. Brad hasn't interacted with the youngest child in over a week because he leaves before his son wakes, and doesn't get home until after he's asleep. According to Brenda, even Brad is commenting at how quickly this thing goes from "bad cold" to "life threatening" in a matter of hours. Everyone in the group wants to help Brenda, but we all felt so utterly powerless. She promised that she'd reach out to us if she needs any errand run. She shared how ANGRY she gets every time she sees or hears about someone not taking the quarantines/social distancing seriously. Everything she shared was so absolutely gut-wrenching that it's hard to even describe. I think everyone there would break social-distancing recommendation to help, but she's (rightly) insistent that her family adhere to a strict quarantine because of what Brad has been exposed to. :(

Horrific what our health care workers are going through.

Twas a better overall day for deaths, esp. in America. Interested to see if that holds or was just a blip.

I remember when this all first started one of the worst case estimates I read was 3,000,000 deaths in the US, and that figure always stuck like a lump in my throat, even though it was like an early, worst case estimate, based on us doing absolutely nothing, so in that regard today's estimate of 100-200,000 dead in the US was practically therapeutic to me, even though it's had the exact opposite result for lots of folks.

Just the picture from that Alabama press conference sucks confidence out of me.

https://i.imgur.com/hzguGQI.png

It looks like they're in a back corner of a bank. And check out those two goons.

more like a booth in the exhibit hall at a gaming convention
those aren't goons they give demos but the company is forced to admit they forgot their games and must describe them to the crowd

I'm gonna guess the next set of unemployment nos. are going to be very bad also.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/investing/macys-employees-furlough-coronavirus/index.html
Macy's is furloughing a majority of its 125,000 employees because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which has sunk sales and forced it close to its stores.

The company said Monday that the pandemic has taken a "heavy toll" on its business. Macy's (M), which also owns Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, closed all of its 775 stores in the United States earlier this month to slow the virus from spreading in crowded areas, and because of laws in some states that forced the closure of nonessential businesses, including retailers.

If I'm reading the bill right, a lot of people in retail might stand to make more from unemployment, with the 600 dollar a week extra kicker. It's sad this virus is attacking us on so many fronts.

Drip, drip, drip

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241609941.html

Gov. Ron DeSantis will turn safer-at-home advice into an order, but only for Southeast Florida, he announced Monday.

At a press conference at the drive-thru testing site at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, DeSantis announced he would be signing an executive order urging those in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe Counties to stay home through “mid-May.”

His order sets in stone what many South Florida communities have already done to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.


That sound you hear is the traffic heading back up I-75 and I-95.

The other story in Florida is one I think people mentioned as a problem earlier in the thread.

Pastor of Tampa church that held two large Sunday services arrested, jailed (https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/03/30/tampa-church-holds-packed-service-draws-warning-from-sheriffs-office/)

The pastor of a Tampa megachurch who held two services on Sunday for scores of worshipers was arrested Monday for violating a county order requiring residents to stay at home to limit the spread of coronavirus.

The last time I was out of the house, most of the churches that I passed were advertising drive thru services where the parishioners stayed in or near their cars while the service went on in front of them.

Pastor of Tampa church that held two large Sunday services arrested, jailed (https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/03/30/tampa-church-holds-packed-service-draws-warning-from-sheriffs-office/)


I really hope someone challenges this arrest on first amendment grounds.

I really hope someone challenges this arrest on first amendment grounds.

Oh it is going to be challenged.

What has already become fascinating has been the bedfellows that are coming together on this.

Branch Covidians

You attend a service there, you all get to stay there for a couple weeks. How's that sound?

Crowds gather on Manhattan's west side to watch arrival of USNS Comfort (https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/crowds-ignore-social-distancing-rules-to-watch-usns-comfort/)

Looks like the ship will have no shortage of patients...

I really hope someone challenges this arrest on first amendment grounds.

They would lose. Quite easily.

Coronavirus gathering bans raise religious freedom questions | National Catholic Reporter (https://www.ncronline.org/news/people/coronavirus-gathering-bans-raise-religious-freedom-questions)

Religious organizations could make a constitutional claim to being singled out by a law that treats secular activity differently, said Eugene Volokh, a UCLA Law School professor and First Amendment expert. "But if you're just imposing the same burden on everybody, for reasons completely unrelated to religiosity of the behavior, that is likely to be permissible even" under state-level religious freedom laws, he said.

Those religious freedom laws ask whether government restrictions are the least burdensome way to further a "compelling interest." When it comes to coronavirus, Volokh said, courts are likely to find "there's a compelling interest in preventing death through communicable disease."

Luke Goodrich, vice president of the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty and a top religious freedom attorney, agreed that the public health emergency of the pandemic would make the governmental case for restrictions on gatherings, including worship, "far stronger than usual."

Volokh is highly respected on First Amendment issues, FWIW.

I really hope someone challenges this arrest on first amendment grounds.

I hope they throw the good book at him...I...wait....

Branch Covidians

I was thinking he might be a revelation guy, but this way better then where I was going.

I really hope someone challenges this arrest on first amendment grounds.

There is some precedent here. Jacobson vs Massachusetts being the main one. I would be surprised if they overturned that.

Well this is good news.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is the blunting of the hospitalization rate- right on time. <br><br>NEED TO KEEP UP PRESSURE <a href="https://t.co/i6CbBS4Hwc">pic.twitter.com/i6CbBS4Hwc</a></p>&mdash; Farzad Mostashari (@Farzad_MD) <a href="https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1244728612730933249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 30, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Drip, drip, drip

Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Monday morning that those living in Southeast Florida should stay home until mid-May to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus. He would sign an executive order, he said, urging those in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe Counties to stay home.

Welp... that's not as far-reaching as I hoped, and not as long as I hoped (already a correction has been made)

DeSantis says he misspoke: South Florida to stay home until April 15, not May 15

I was talking to my Dad today who lives in Florida. He said all the New Yorkers are fleeing NY. Florida has put up a road block on I95 and are quarantining all people from NY, NJ, and CT for 14 days.

And our Governor has no intention of implementing a stay at home order and is relying on individual responsibility. Jeez, what world does this guy live in?

I was talking to my Dad today who lives in Florida. He said all the New Yorkers are fleeing NY. Florida has put up a road block on I95 and are quarantining all people from NY, NJ, and CT for 14 days.

Uh ... so they get to stay in GA?

Uh ... so they get to stay in GA?

They are allowed and forced into a 14 day quarantine. Not sure how they enforce that, though.

...Not sure how they enforce that, though.
BINGO! And that's why we're frustrated at another half-assed, half thought out response.

BINGO! And that's why we're frustrated at another half-assed, half thought out response.

Is there a way outside of basically putting them in custody and taking them somewhere?

They're probably putting them on the beaches.

Second war of northern aggression :)

Is there a way outside of basically putting them in custody and taking them somewhere?
No, of course not. So other than the "threat" which may be a lukewarm deterrent, there really is no other true consequence to it.

Basically, if it's like what's happening here in RI. Checkpoints pull over people with out of state License plates (if you don't stop at checkpoint you get pulled over by cops). They ask if you're passing through, or going to work. If not, they ask you for where you're staying, and I think the Board of Health follows up with a quarantine notice.

Arizona is starting a shelter-in-place EO by the governor tomorrow. I'm not sure what really changes if there are a thousand reasons you can leave your house though.

Well this is good news.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is the blunting of the hospitalization rate- right on time. <br><br>NEED TO KEEP UP PRESSURE <a href="https://t.co/i6CbBS4Hwc">pic.twitter.com/i6CbBS4Hwc</a></p>&mdash; Farzad Mostashari (@Farzad_MD) <a href="https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1244728612730933249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 30, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Not that i want to be that guy but it does seem like a drop on saturday happened the 2 weeks prior as well. No idea if that would be due to reporting/data input lag or people simply trying to 'wait it out' on those days or not being able to get to their regular doctor who would send them on ... But it seems noteworthy.

Spain with over 900 deaths today ... France with their highest 1 day total as well with 418 and none of their numbers include those dying in Retirement homes etc and never getting admitted. Began moving patients by Highspeed train since Paris is past capacity. Almost 40% hospitalisation rate, so still lagging behind in testing.

Italy might slooooowly be taking a turn looking at the numbers in context. Lots more testing, yet still less new cases and soon a decent number should start to recover so that active cases can go down (serious cases already are going down as more of the new cases are mild ones they could not test a week or two ago)

Germany actually taking on a small number of patients now from France and Italy which is good to see, but moving them is a pain. Italy can only move 2 at a time, german Air Force has a converted Airbus A310 that can move 6 ICU patients and (in theory) 44 total, but that total normally not meant to be infectious illnesses where breathing can pretty much stop mid-flight ...
At about 500k tests a week now but until antibody tests are ready that is the max that can be done with the current lab capacity and ressources.

Drip Drip, drip drip

The day after President Trump extended his social distancing guidelines through April 30, Florida’s education commissioner on Monday called on school districts to remain closed until May 1.

In-person classes already had been called off through April 15, with all spring testing canceled. Distance learning began in earnest Monday morning for most schools, after an extended spring break.

School ends locally on May 29th.

Schools were just cancelled for the year in AZ.

Schools were just cancelled for the year in AZ.

I almost with they would call it here in NJ. Just put us out of our misery already

I almost with they would call it here in NJ. Just put us out of our misery already

We're out until April 15. There's no fucking way they'll go back in the middle of April, so I'm not sure why they aren't out until at least May at this point.

We are out through April 24th. Taking it 3 weeks at a time.

My daughter graduates this year I am seriously bummed. And she even more. My wife is in a group of Moms that are trying to plan something for them.

I hope our district lets them in July or August if need be.

Just lovely

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pritzker says the White House promised to send Illinois hundreds of thousands of N95 masks, but sent surgical masks instead <a href="https://t.co/4HaTl31KeN">https://t.co/4HaTl31KeN</a></p>&mdash; Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) <a href="https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1244781849383182337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

On the schools thing, I figure most of the powers that be are just taking things one step at a time. As fast as this thing is changing, it doesn't seem imprudent to me to focus on what they need to do the next week or to only in most circumstances.

My daughter's school district started spring break today for the next 2 weeks. After that, they're schooling from home Tuesday - Thursday through the rest of April. Finals exams and the standardized testing have been cancelled as well.

I don't see how they go back to school this year. I'll be surprised if they go back to school on time for next year.

We're out until April 15. There's no fucking way they'll go back in the middle of April, so I'm not sure why they aren't out until at least May at this point.

We were told they will reasses 4/17. I don't think we go back this year.

If your state said schools would go back in 2-3 weeks would you let your kids go? I can see some keeping their kids at home until fall.

Our kids were out until April 14th, but that was extended to May 4th. Since school is done the first week of June, we don't see them going back this year, but they haven't called it yet.

The district is loaning out devices for those that need them to start elearning on the 14th. Should be interesting....

If your state said schools would go back in 2-3 weeks would you let your kids go? I can see some keeping their kids at home until fall.

We've talked about it and, with my father-in-law living with us, we won't with what we know now. That would change based on updated information, access to treatments, etc.

Ohio schools have been suspended until may 1st.

I don't know how they didn't extend the "stay at home" order at the same time.

And I think that's my first double dola. :) (Damn, almost....)

If your state said schools would go back in 2-3 weeks would you let your kids go? I can see some keeping their kids at home until fall.

Had this conversation with a friend the other day as to how schools would handle this. They obviously have rules as to how many days can be missed, etc...Would they waive those? Would they send work home for kids to do who aren't attending? Maybe some kind of waiver for people who live with someone at higher risk? It is a complicated issue.

To answer your question it would be a game time decision based off how things are going.

Our governor continues with his ignorance of what is happening. He said Missouri would peak around mid April or withing the next 60-90 days which then it will be over.

What a dumbass. I really liked him as a governor until now. But maybe I liked him because he did not cowtow to the urban areas. Which he continues.

But this is a whole new game and he is still playing the old game.

The district is loaning out devices for those that need them to start elearning on the 14th. Should be interesting....

When they cancelled for us it was initially for two weeks, no one really thought we would go back after though.

The sent all the kids home will well designed paper packets for 2 weeks of work. Once it became obvious we weren't going back they planned to do elearning. That started today and it was a bit of a shitshow.

The main app my daughter, first grade, uses crashed and no one could get on. the direction from the teachers was brutal. They made WAY too many assumptions that parents could intuitively use the different platforms.

My son, fourth grade, uses several platforms for math, science, etc...and can navigate them. The problem is all the passwords are remember in his chromebook at school and he doesn't know any of them. I had to email the teacher several times to get them. It was a big time suck.

all of this while trying to keep the 6 year old focused on her work and not chasing the cats every 3 seconds.

When they cancelled for us it was initially for two weeks, no one really thought we would go back after though.

The sent all the kids home will well designed paper packets for 2 weeks of work. Once it became obvious we weren't going back they planned to do elearning. That started today and it was a bit of a shitshow.

The main app my daughter, first grade, uses crashed and no one could get on. the direction from the teachers was brutal. They made WAY too many assumptions that parents could intuitively use the different platforms.

My son, fourth grade, uses several platforms for math, science, etc...and can navigate them. The problem is all the passwords are remember in his chromebook at school and he doesn't know any of them. I had to email the teacher several times to get them. It was a big time suck.

all of this while trying to keep the 6 year old focused on her work and not chasing the cats every 3 seconds.

So far, it's been ok here. They have Chromebooks at school and, by total coincidence, we had gotten the kids Chromebooks a few weeks ago for home to do additional work and for our 6th grader to do research. They are able to log into their school accounts on the Chromebook at home and access everything they have at school. So, from that regard, it's worked well.

However, the school is using Zoom and they don't have the Zoom app loaded in the school accounts, so they have to use their home account to do the meetings with their teachers and classmates.

Overall, it's worked well, with me playing IT while trying to work from home. Hopefully, once they start elearning in earnest, it will continue to work well.

At least 400 long-term care facilities around the country have residents that have tested positive.

Not official yet but reports coming out that Michigan will be next on the closing schools for the rest of the year bandwagon.

I was talking to my Dad today who lives in Florida. He said all the New Yorkers are fleeing NY. Florida has put up a road block on I95 and are quarantining all people from NY, NJ, and CT for 14 days.

Looks like it has been there for awhile now and is spreading rampantly. Facing mentioned Florida weeks ago as an up and coming hotspot. Not sure putting the resources into New Yorkers seems smart at this time.

Feels a bit like an excuse lined up by a state that didn't take the virus seriously and is about to get hammered.

https://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/attachments/touchface-jpg.6559/

The carrier Theodore Roosevelt has over 200 cases and the Captain is asking for removing all personnel.

Downstream impacts of the coronavirus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/food-banks-supplies-groceries-coronavirus/index.html
More people in need. Less food being donated. And volunteers staying home.

Food banks across the nation are facing a perfect storm as they try to help the growing number of hungry Americans amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Millions of people newly unemployed mean food banks, food pantries and soup kitchens are seeing a flood of new clients appearing at their doors, just as supplies are dwindling because of growing demand from consumers stuck at home.

Food banks are reporting a 40% increase in demand
:
:
Feeding America depends on getting 1.4 billion meals a year in donations from retailers, such as Walmart and supermarkets. That channel has seen a "significant and fast plummet" in deliveries recently because of consumer demand in stores and supply chain constraints, Fitzgerald said. Its donations from food manufacturers, which total about 580 million meals, also have dropped by about half this month.

I've been wondering about the food banks. Increased demand and decreased supply is going to wreck havoc on them. Not to mention a decrease in the people who are serving - as plenty of people who volunteer at food banks tend to be older.

The donations from supermarkets is something I completely forgot about as well. I really really hope we don't end up a starvation crisis in this country in April :(.

On the schools thing, I figure most of the powers that be are just taking things one step at a time. As fast as this thing is changing, it doesn't seem imprudent to me to focus on what they need to do the next week or to only in most circumstances.

This issue that I have with the way they are handling this is twofold. First, the state have made it pretty clear that they are all in on e-learning for the rest of the year. Based on the communications that I see as a parent and the communications that I see that is sent to employees, 99% of it reads like we are going to be out the rest of the year. It does not make sense to me to add kids and school staff to the mix for 10 school days. Especially as Jas lov asked, you are not sure how many of your students and staff will be back due to health concerns.

The second reason is it just feels we as a state are voluntarily staying two steps behind where we need to be to get over the crisis as opposed to trying to be one step ahead. The idea that that we will get through this "together" seems to ring hollow with this sort of patchwork approach.

Chris Cuomo diagnosed with COVID-19

Chris Cuomo diagnosed with COVID-19

Gov. Andrew Cuomo getting some brotherly shade in. Said he'll be fine, he's young, he's in good shape, he's strong "but not as strong as he thinks". LOL

Well I just learned that one of my company's competitors went out of business.

That's not good for my psyche at the moment.

We just filed for one of the grants/loans through the SBA. Not hurt yet by this but would have to lay people off soon. This would allow us to keep everyone on the payroll through the whole thing.

Not a ton of faith in the SBA and was disappointed to learn that places like Starbucks qualify too. But we'll see what happens. Haven't heard back yet despite their supposedly "quick turnaround time".

Most of my agents are independent contractors but I'm trying to push as much SBA stuff and grants and loan stuff at them as possible. Such is the life of commission people. If you save when times are good you might be able to weather the downs. I've seen this cycle before in RE. Not necessarily the same obviously but ups and downs nonetheless. It'll be interesting to see how the new models fare through this.

Not sure how much was tied in to New York heavily testing & then pulling back, and I'm sure Florida & a couple other places will spike soon, but it's encouraging that we still haven't hit as many new cases as 3/16 on any day since - Cases in U.S. | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html)

Going back to "business as usual" by Easter or even May 1 is dumb, but it's time to start thinking about how to start opening back up the country slowly. Massachusetts pushed schools back a week to May 4 (and schools do get out much later there than the south/west), but I think re-opening them is looking more & more like a good idea. As ventilator/ICU capacity is upped & some treatments show promise in keeping mild cases from progressing (hydrochloroquine + Z-Paks + Zinc supplements were one combo that anecdotally is working), we're much better off long term exposing more of the (younger) population & starting to build up herd immunity in enough people to have a semi-funcrioning economy (though I'd still encourage as many white collar workers to work from home and limit business travel as possible, and I'll be interested to see the long term effects on "office" culture & even commercial real estate.)

IMO, I don't see anything substantial happening until Labor Day in terms of letting people congregate again. I could see reopening some business with limits on people in one place (ie, salons) but it looks like the worst (in terms of hospitalizations) won't be happening until early May in most places. It would be irresponsible to start opening things up when hospitals are at max capacity. But, if things get better in that area, we could look at that. I just don't see it at this point.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press?utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3HUJCiVWMWq8iAYZXkjvJqT0nSwGJBPMrJ8WTM3IR-603TAY82FTWpBBw)

Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press?utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3HUJCiVWMWq8iAYZXkjvJqT0nSwGJBPMrJ8WTM3IR-603TAY82FTWpBBw)
I'm torn on this. On the one hand, they should absolutely have the best gear as quickly as possible. But, there are known shortages and to think hospitals and state governments aren't doing everything they can isn't really fair. Continuing to feed the press this stuff does nothing but cause more of a frenzy, panic everyone and start unrest in the population. What's the upside of doing that? Do we really think hospitals would be like "Well, I don't think we are going to do anything about the shortage of masks. Wait! Nurse Bob just complained to the local paper - well we better go get it now!"

I think at some point everyone has to take steps to limit the panic. I'm not sure it's productive to fire healthcare workers over it out of the blue - but I think it's reasonable to tell them there will be a penalty for talking to the press about every issue going on. Imagine being a hospital administrator and getting death threats everyday because two of your workers told the NY Times they don't have enough equipment. Especially when there's absolutely nothing you can do. Maybe the fact that I know a few and they are getting these threats is coloring my judgement a bit - but even if I didn't, I don't see any productive reason to keep inciting this panic.

The problem I have with it is THIS ADMINISTRATION in particular needs to have constant pressure put on them to get anything accomplished. If stories from the front line aren't getting out they will spin it as everything is ok.

The former FDA commissioner has a good plan for reopening at AEI. Nothing shocking, reduce the curve, aggressive testing and tracking in local areas, new restrictions as flare ups occur, but it's a well thought-out plan.

This is one I could see never coming back


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JCPenney says it has made the &quot;difficult decision to temporarily furlough the majority of store hourly associates&quot; and that a &quot;significant portion&quot; of its corporate employees will be placed on leave. The retailer had about 90,000 employees as of Feb. 1. <a href="https://t.co/QWA6TYgkuu">https://t.co/QWA6TYgkuu</a></p>&mdash; CNN (@CNN) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1245084285121572866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I guess, the problem is all the "Trumpers" take it out on the local administrators. So, I understand they want to put a stop into the self-sabotage. It's not an easy issue for sure, but I'm not sure what more hospitals can do at this point.

I'm torn on this. On the one hand, they should absolutely have the best gear as quickly as possible. But, there are known shortages and to think hospitals and state governments aren't doing everything they can isn't really fair. Continuing to feed the press this stuff does nothing but cause more of a frenzy, panic everyone and start unrest in the population. What's the upside of doing that? Do we really think hospitals would be like "Well, I don't think we are going to do anything about the shortage of masks. Wait! Nurse Bob just complained to the local paper - well we better go get it now!"

I think at some point everyone has to take steps to limit the panic. I'm not sure it's productive to fire healthcare workers over it out of the blue - but I think it's reasonable to tell them there will be a penalty for talking to the press about every issue going on. Imagine being a hospital administrator and getting death threats everyday because two of your workers told the NY Times they don't have enough equipment. Especially when there's absolutely nothing you can do. Maybe the fact that I know a few and they are getting these threats is coloring my judgement a bit - but even if I didn't, I don't see any productive reason to keep inciting this panic.

Maybe there should be panic if medical professionals don't have access to basic PPE during a pandemic?

Maybe there should be panic if medical professionals don't have access to basic PPE during a pandemic?

Because public panic will help procurement groups obtain it?

No panic will cause others to try to acquire scarce resources.
Face it none of us really need to know as much a we want to.

It makes me think of how being connected isnt so good...I want to expand on that thought later after work.

Maybe there should be panic if medical professionals don't have access to basic PPE during a pandemic?

And telling a hospital on it's bullshit (claiming a certain standard of gear is sufficient when it isn't) as that Nurse in Chicago aparently did is most definitely is not merely "complaining".

The insane thing is that with this disease it might be more 'efficient' to not treat a patient at all than to get infected doing it and then spreading it (remember that sick patients do get sicker if exposed again during their treatment, not to mention the spread to different areas of the hospital via colleagues or into the outside world). Imagine facing that for a second, not to mention any personal risk.

I agree that hospitals have limited options now, but being transparent might be something that you should consider as an institution within a democratic country. Sometimes it is interesting how ultra-capitalism and autocratic regimes produce similar behaviour from institutions. Also, as a whole the current situation for PPE seems partly screwed up in the US due to the lack of federal Organisation of the process, isnt it ? I mean, everybody is scrambling but it seems pretty strange that the US seems to struggle that much on that front.

Public pressure is definitely not optional here imo, not when the guy ultimately holding the strings is not exactly swayed by quiet rationality.

Nah on the panic thing. Panic solves nothing.

It does appear that today will be the worst one yet overall for the world. USA, UK, France at least with the worth death totals to date.

I would assume some hospitals get public funding in one way or another, couldn't this be a potential 1st amendment violation?

Because public panic will help procurement groups obtain it?

No panic will cause others to try to acquire scarce resources.
Face it none of us really need to know as much a we want to.

It makes me think of how being connected isnt so good...I want to expand on that thought later after work.

It would add transparency and inform the public of the situation. We should know the failures in our response to this pandemic. And perhaps it would add pressure to leadership to get their shit in order. Or inform the public that those leaders should be ousted.

This isn't China. We should know if our health system is failing.

As the spouse of a nurse working on the front lines, fucking trumpet this shortage and drop fucking leaflets from all the rafters. Fuck the hospital's feelings. The mother of my kids is putting her ass on the line everyday she goes to work, knowing there is a shortage of equipment that keeps her safe.


In fact, if shit doesn't change soon and these equipment shortages aren't solved, her last day at work may be soon.

Nah on the panic thing. Panic solves nothing.

It does appear that today will be the worst one yet overall for the world. USA, UK, France at least with the worth death totals to date.

France started counting deaths outside hospitals like retirement homes today that never even get admitted, so that is part of it there. (A ton are never even tested as well so really it is even higher everywhere)

Most countries (all but Italy and Spain) are still 2 weeks away from where you could even hope for deaths not to rise anymore, just the 'math' of this thing :(

Netherlands and Belgium have low-key terrible outbreaks as well, their death totals adjusting to population are getting scary bad. Belgium adjusted to Italys Population would have been over 1000 today and both countries have higher total numbers adjusted than France.
And both reacted very late and timidly at the start.

Easier for me to ask here & check back for answer(s) later than to Google this shit so that's what I'm going to do:

Is there a consensus about immunity after illness? i.e. if somebody gets it, once recovered are they believed clear at this point from getting it again?
And, related question: is non-symptomatic exposure enough if that's the case, or is a more hardcore case of it required to convey any immunity?

(This relates not to macro-questions, this is super micro question prompted by a household I know personally back in my hometown)

I have a bad feeling that Florida is on the verge of getting hammered. Governor has been slow on the shutdowns and there are a lot of retirement communities. Hope I'm wrong but it feels like a disaster waiting to happen for them.

Fauci has said he's confident that immunity does happen after someone gets it. I don't think the symptomatic part is relevant but I don't know for sure.

Easier for me to ask here & check back for answer(s) later than to Google this shit so that's what I'm going to do:

Is there a consensus about immunity after illness? i.e. if somebody gets it, once recovered are they believed clear at this point from getting it again?
And, related question: is non-symptomatic exposure enough if that's the case, or is a more hardcore case of it required to convey any immunity?

(This relates not to macro-questions, this is super micro question prompted by a household I know personally back in my hometown)

This is what my brother told me. He's a biochemist for a pharmaceutical company and has a good deal of knowledge in this stuff (especially lungs which is his specialty).

It is highly unlikely that you can contract it again. This is based on how similar viruses have been handled by our immune system over the years and no credible reports of coming down with it again. Whether that immunity is for life or a span of like 10 years is unknown.

Not sure on your second question but it's a good one. I texted him to see what he thinks.

I have a bad feeling that Florida is on the verge of getting hammered. Governor has been slow on the shutdowns and there are a lot of retirement communities. Hope I'm wrong but it feels like a disaster waiting to happen for them.

Yeah. The way things have been handled down there combined with the old population seems like a really, really bad mix.

I think Florida likely ends up with the highest death toll when it is all said and done, depending on how they count the deaths.

Here is his text response. Think he understood what I was asking.

Oh yeah. You just need to be exposed to the genetic material. Load can matter but probably not that important. It's why we typically do multiple rounds of certain vaccines. Most likely the first round gets 99%, the next round brings it to, 99.5%, etc. And those are numbers for complete immunity. Even if after the first round you are in the 1%, you still have probably drastically helped your immune system in fighting off the disease. But you may still get mild symptoms. Our immune system is insanely effective wit these things. We even don't need to have the whole sequence exposed to us. A mere fragment should do it

Easier for me to ask here & check back for answer(s) later than to Google this shit so that's what I'm going to do:

Is there a consensus about immunity after illness? i.e. if somebody gets it, once recovered are they believed clear at this point from getting it again?
And, related question: is non-symptomatic exposure enough if that's the case, or is a more hardcore case of it required to convey any immunity?

(This relates not to macro-questions, this is super micro question prompted by a household I know personally back in my hometown)

As with everything, I don't think there is a consensus on either question. I remember early on, there were anecdotes of people getting it twice but then there were questions about the testing.

Looks like 770+ deaths in the US today. Up to 3,780 deaths in the US in total.

Shockingly somber tone from Trump in his opening (prepared) remarks in the presser today.



"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going to go through a very tough two weeks"

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dr Birx showing model for potential number of dead in US. With “no intervention,” the model shows 1.5 to 2 million deaths. “With intervention” shows 100,000-240,000 deaths. Still very sobering.</p>&mdash; Jim Acosta (@Acosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1245105649392013314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

The "don't trust institutions" narrative is problematic in a pandemic.

Rainmaker, thanks for the answers. That makes a lot of sense.

Here is his text response. Think he understood what I was asking.

I listened to a podcast last night (certainly not an authoritative source, especially as it's not strictly a health podcast) that suggested worst case scenario is this becomes the flu, where it changes enough seasonally that we (or at least the most at risk) have to get vaccinated every year.

If you happen to be texting, I'd be interested to see if that's a realistic scenario from his perspective or just random BS.

Shockingly somber tone from Trump in his opening (prepared) remarks in the presser today.



"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going to go through a very tough two weeks"

Yeah, but at the same time he was still going with the "I was calling this a pandemic before anyone else was" BS.

Yeah, but at the same time he was still going with the "I was calling this a pandemic before anyone else was" BS.I didn't suggest that he has changed--just more "if TRUMP is like this, it's about to get BAD."

Yeah, but at the same time he was still going with the "I was calling this a pandemic before anyone else was" BS.


Has he broken out the "I've saved millions of lives through my actions" line yet?

I listened to a podcast last night (certainly not an authoritative source, especially as it's not strictly a health podcast) that suggested worst case scenario is this becomes the flu, where it changes enough seasonally that we (or at least the most at risk) have to get vaccinated every year.

If you happen to be texting, I'd be interested to see if that's a realistic scenario from his perspective or just random BS.
I don't even play a doctor on TV, but I heard this question as well on a different interview with a medical expert. I don't remember the exact answer, but it basically was that the strains that live on tend to be weaker over time. So, even if a "new version" comes out next February - it would be much weaker. He said something like this happening with the swine flu. Again, I wish I was paying more attention and would be interested in what others have to say. But, that's the gist of what I remembered.

Has he broken out the "I've saved millions of lives through my actions" line yet?Birx and Fauci answering all questions so far.



(While typing this, "yes, we should be prepared for 100,000 deaths within a couple of months" from Fauci.)

Feds say mitigation, our Governor says personal responsibility. Im losing respect for our Gov.

Feds say mitigation, our Governor says personal responsibility. Im losing respect for our Gov.

Your governor may be the only one doing a worse job than Florida's sadly.

I listened to a podcast last night (certainly not an authoritative source, especially as it's not strictly a health podcast) that suggested worst case scenario is this becomes the flu, where it changes enough seasonally that we (or at least the most at risk) have to get vaccinated every year.

If you happen to be texting, I'd be interested to see if that's a realistic scenario from his perspective or just random BS.

Actually the issue with the flu is not justbit changing per se but also that there is a bunch of Influenza Viruses and you have to kind of chose which ones to include in the vaccination based on early data on which are circulating the most.

Generally, Coronaviruses are a lot less likely to mutate (at least substantially, every virus mutates a bit), one Virologist over here put it at 'about 10 times less' than the average Influenza virus.

Your governor may be the only one doing a worse job than Florida's sadly.

Georgia’s says hold my beer!

Don’t know if it will amount to much in regards to the overall food supply, but I’m seeing a few troubling trends in various places.

-A beef packing plant has been shut down due to positive tests on workers. Price of live cattle has cratered. I’ve seen some farmers having contracts for slaughter cancelled because processing capacity is limited.

- I’ve seen a few vegetable farmers nervous about H2-A workers not being able to come this year. Our undocumented population could theoretically pick up the slack.

- Milk is starting to get dumped. The price of milk has cratered once again. Cheese and butter are piling up because restaurants are shut down. Schools made up a decent chunk of demand. Temporary spike in fluid demand at grocery stores isn’t making up. That sound you are hearing is the bullet I dodged by selling my cows and farm while I still had my shirt.

-The oil price war makes ethanol a bad buy right now. Ethanol plants are trying to use act of god provisions in contracts to get out of them and shut down. They will lose less money by sitting idle.

Even with Trump’s farmer welfare of the past few years, agriculture is pretty well fucked at this point and I’m glad I jumped off that bus. The general economy had been stellar up until all this craziness. Ag was the exception so it’ll be interesting to see how this will shake out for the average person and food in general. The immediate concern would be in processing as that could end up being a bottleneck with plants getting shut down due to the virus.

Don’t know if it will amount to much in regards to the overall food supply, but I’m seeing a few troubling trends in various places.

-A beef packing plant has been shut down due to positive tests on workers. Price of live cattle has cratered. I’ve seen some farmers having contracts for slaughter cancelled because processing capacity is limited.

- I’ve seen a few vegetable farmers nervous about H2-A workers not being able to come this year. Our undocumented population could theoretically pick up the slack.

- Milk is starting to get dumped. The price of milk has cratered once again. Cheese and butter are piling up because restaurants are shut down. Schools made up a decent chunk of demand. Temporary spike in fluid demand at grocery stores isn’t making up. That sound you are hearing is the bullet I dodged by selling my cows and farm while I still had my shirt.

-The oil price war makes ethanol a bad buy right now. Ethanol plants are trying to use act of god provisions in contracts to get out of them and shut down. They will lose less money by sitting idle.

Even with Trump’s farmer welfare of the past few years, agriculture is pretty well fucked at this point and I’m glad I jumped off that bus. The general economy had been stellar up until all this craziness. Ag was the exception so it’ll be interesting to see how this will shake out for the average person and food in general. The immediate concern would be in processing as that could end up being a bottleneck with plants getting shut down due to the virus.

My wife is senior VP of sales for Duracell, in charge of all grocery and drug stores. Before that she worked for P and G. Supply chain, etc...is right up he alley. She said she has zero worries about a food shortage. Not that I doubt your info, because I certainly don't, but her confidence and expertise give me faith it won't happen.

This is one I could see never coming back


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JCPenney says it has made the &quot;difficult decision to temporarily furlough the majority of store hourly associates&quot; and that a &quot;significant portion&quot; of its corporate employees will be placed on leave. The retailer had about 90,000 employees as of Feb. 1. <a href="https://t.co/QWA6TYgkuu">https://t.co/QWA6TYgkuu</a></p>&mdash; CNN (@CNN) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1245084285121572866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Oh boy my ex wife worked for the hair salon here in JC Penney.

My wife is senior VP of sales for Duracell, in charge of all grocery and drug stores. Before that she worked for P and G. Supply chain, etc...is right up he alley. She said she has zero worries about a food shortage. Not that I doubt your info, because I certainly don't, but her confidence and expertise give me faith it won't happen.

I don’t think we will see an overall food shortage either. It’s a diverse enough system that already produces in excess. Something like beef may get short if a few plants have outbreaks given how consolidated the beef industry is. We would just eat something else. Except me, I’ve got a freezer full of Wagyu beef.

I gave it too much time. Looks like we'll end tomorrow with twice as many confirmed cases as any other country.

Okay pimps,

Dr Vuong is here to tell you how this shit will kill you

HOW COVID-19 KILLS--I'm a Surgeon--And Why We Can't Save You - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0d59dd-qM)

I don’t think we will see an overall food shortage either. It’s a diverse enough system that already produces in excess. Something like beef may get short if a few plants have outbreaks given how consolidated the beef industry is. We would just eat something else. Except me, I’ve got a freezer full of Wagyu beef.

I can see the slow degradation of the food supply and can easily see the shortage of some food.

When the US and other countries are on multi-month "pause", it inevitable there will be a reduction in the variety and quantity of some foods. I'm not saying Depression-level deprivation but the impact will grow larger the longer we are on pause.

We import a lot of fruits from south of the border. A lot of seafood from China. See list here Importing Food Into the U.S.: What You Need to Know (https://usacustomsclearance.com/process/importing-food-into-the-us-what-you-need-to-know/)

The second factor to toss out there is how food gets to the stores. By air, land, sea, to warehouses & distribution centers, trucks, rail etc. I think truckers by default do a lot of social distancing already. Admittedly I think this risk is lower.

The third factor is the food supply we grow here. Lots of guest workers & illegals. Haven't read much about them but can forsee where the coronavirus runs through segments of that population.


There is now the new 30-day flatten the curve plan and I'm good with that. NY and NJ were discussed the most and maybe 30 days is good for them but there are some curves coming up (FL, LA, CA) and who knows, there maybe another 30-day plan.

If much of the country is going to do this 30-day plan, it seems to me that we should do this consistently across the nation. There are some pig-headed governors and state officials ... Trump should just mandate it.

As a legal matter, I don't think Trump can mandate it. This is for the same reason that when there's a hurricane, etc. , governors declare a state of emergency and then ask FEMA for help. The states have that authority and autonomy.

As a legal matter, I don't think Trump can mandate it. This is for the same reason that when there's a hurricane, etc. , governors declare a state of emergency and then ask FEMA for help. The states have that authority and autonomy.

Okay. But that shouldn't stop Trump from applying maximum pressure and saying "You should do this, I am telling you to do this, the GOP is telling you to do this. If you do not, the deaths in the state is your fault etc."

It doesn't make sense to me that we go through the 30 day plan to flatten the curve for majority of the states but yet another 30 days could possibly be added to non-compliant states (because they are now cresting).

I wonder at what point does this become a serious problem.

17% of NYPD officers now out sick.

1418 have tested positive for COVID-19

Sure, definitely agree that Trump should be out there advocating for that. I think Sweden is also going to be interesting to watch, since they are essentially taking the personal responsibility route, which has some using them as an example of the right way to do this.

Sure, definitely agree that Trump should be out there advocating for that. I think Sweden is also going to be interesting to watch, since they are essentially taking the personal responsibility route, which has some using them as an example of the right way to do this.

Yes, saw that article on Sweden. I predict pain for them but we shall see.

According to worldometers, 4,066 deaths out of 188,881 or 2.2% so far.

Assuming the chart is accurate, the shit is about to hit the fan.

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/01/11/26672626-8175345-image-a-22_1585736589733.jpg

they fucked with the scale on the vertical axis. Starts off in increments of 40 then switches to increments of 20.

For reasons already discussed, I think the death total is probably a lot closer to accurate than the mortality rate. But yeah as long as it keeps going up we should be wary. The next time daily deaths doubles we'll be into heart disease & cancer territory.

Sure, definitely agree that Trump should be out there advocating for that. I think Sweden is also going to be interesting to watch, since they are essentially taking the personal responsibility route, which has some using them as an example of the right way to do this.

Sweden reported 59 deaths today so far which is already the equivalent of about 500 adjusted for German population size. And they had a lot less travel coming in from China or Italy or Spain than other countries. So it naturally took longer for the outbreak to reach 'critical mass' when enough infected people end up infecting others.

And with how little they test i don't see how they can regain any overview of the situation and 'interesting' is not the way i would put it.

Like mentioned yesterday, the Netherlands and Belgium also were slow to react and their numbers are pretty much the same level as Italy/Spain numbers if adjusted for population.

they fucked with the scale on the vertical axis. Starts off in increments of 40 then switches to increments of 20.

Good catch. The graphics is misleading but the stats still stand and tell the story.

UK with 563 yesterday as well and that's excluding anybody dying in a home, best guess from early data (up to March 20th) is you can add at least another 20-25 %. of course one can go down the 'but they would have died anyway' route, but i really don't.

And as this is bound to come up in the future when people will do revisionist history of 'was it really necessary' for at least the countries that got away with a somewhat 'normal' number due to heavily combating the spread: The majority (!) of deaths attributed to Influenza actually is thought to occur outside the hospital and are never tested but merely extrapolated as a statistic from overall deaths in the population compared year to year.

And with how little they test i don't see how they can regain any overview of the situation and 'interesting' is not the way i would put it.

Like mentioned yesterday, the Netherlands and Belgium also were slow to react and their numbers are pretty much the same level as Italy/Spain numbers if adjusted for population.

You're mostly preaching to the choir here, I've been of the same mind as you regarding restrictions being necessary. I'm thinking maybe the word interesting means something different to you than it does to me.

You're mostly preaching to the choir here, I've been of the same mind as you regarding restrictions being necessary. I'm thinking maybe the word interesting means something different to you than it does to me.

Yeah sorry about that. Bit touchy on the subject admittedly due to a mixture of the whole thing weighing on me and regular contact with people deeply involved in it at various levels and multiple countries due to work, uni contacts and sports-connections across the globe.

So yeah, didn't mean to attack you with it :)

No apology needed. This has a way of affecting almost all of us I think in ways we wouldn't prefer.

I still contend that between 1.5 and 2 million people have (or have had) the virus in the US. If you look at the counties tested (and many haven't had any tested) and extrapolate, those numbers seem to be in the ballpark. In other words, look at Maricopa county (where I live). There are over 4.4 million people in it and 791 cases (8 deaths). Given how the virus travels, when real "stay at home" measures were put in place and the testing procedure - we probably have had closer to 10,000 (if not more) actual cases of the virus.

So, I think looking at the deaths is the best way (but understand they will also be under-reported). My guess is the actual death rate (once we get all the data down the road), will be closer to 0.5% than 1%. But, if 60 million people get the virus, that's still 300K deaths. I also think social distancing will reallly have made a massive impact. If we spread out the cases and even restrict them using this, it could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

Im not sure if this belongs here or the mental health thread so Ill start here and gladly move it if the group prefers.

One aspect of this has really consumed my brain for the last week.

Let me add this disclaimer before I got further. This is not an angle to minimize this pandemic. I think this is a major, serious, global issue that is going to get worse before it gets better. This isnt intended to minimize, excuse or ignore any of that.

With that aside, I am left wondering whether our global connected nature, as a whole, has helped or hurt in this crisis.

I ant but think if we go back to even the late 80s, how relatively little inter-connection and information availability was. (As a personal note I have been really mentally meditating and thinking on society and roles as a whole lately - thinking to settlement days where everyone had a task. The butcher, the farmer, the blacksmith, the barber etc and coming to grips with where my current societal contribution fits. So that's a relevant back drop to this thought) but I cant help but think about just 2 generations back.

In a much more isolated world. There has been 1 death in my county. In the days of newspaper and back I think this would definitely be a big deal in Italy and in New York currently. But would it be a big deal in my local community? Would it be totally business as usual and if this too does in fact pass with time, would it be thought back on as that horrible disease that killed the one lady two towns over. I spent this weekend visiting with my Grandfather who is 93(ish) and he was talking about the great depression for whatever reason. And how "that was horrible up in New York. but it never hit the farm Thank God"

In a more regionalized point in our history, certainly this wouldn't have spread as wide, and even if it did I wonder how it would be memorialized in our minds.

Again Im not intending to make light of the situation. But my ind is drawn to quantities. Ive read that 40,000 people die every year in car crashes. 13 in every 100,000 people die every single year in auto accidents. We all know someone who has died in a car wreck I suspect. And it doesnt lessen the tragedy, but it also doesnt consume our consciousness. In fact we hardly ever stop to think about it beyond a wreath on the side of the road.

But this in our current social and traditional media environment, dominates our thoughts. And again rightly so. I just wonder if in a simpler time it would have even registered. In a rural ag community such as mine, its just about planting time. And I can imagine that being all grandpa thought about. With an occasional cursory thought to "those poor folks in Nw York battling that virus"..and maybe I selfishly long for that life.

Im not sure if this belongs here or the mental health thread so Ill start here and gladly move it if the group prefers.

One aspect of this has really consumed my brain for the last week.

Let me add this disclaimer before I got further. This is not an angle to minimize this pandemic. I think this is a major, serious, global issue that is going to get worse before it gets better. This isnt intended to minimize, excuse or ignore any of that.

With that aside, I am left wondering whether our global connected nature, as a whole, has helped or hurt in this crisis.

I ant but think if we go back to even the late 80s, how relatively little inter-connection and information availability was. (As a personal note I have been really mentally meditating and thinking on society and roles as a whole lately - thinking to settlement days where everyone had a task. The butcher, the farmer, the blacksmith, the barber etc and coming to grips with where my current societal contribution fits. So that's a relevant back drop to this thought) but I cant help but think about just 2 generations back.

In a much more isolated world. There has been 1 death in my county. In the days of newspaper and back I think this would definitely be a big deal in Italy and in New York currently. But would it be a big deal in my local community? Would it be totally business as usual and if this too does in fact pass with time, would it be thought back on as that horrible disease that killed the one lady two towns over. I spent this weekend visiting with my Grandfather who is 93(ish) and he was talking about the great depression for whatever reason. And how "that was horrible up in New York. but it never hit the farm Thank God"

In a more regionalized point in our history, certainly this wouldn't have spread as wide, and even if it did I wonder how it would be memorialized in our minds.

Again Im not intending to make light of the situation. But my ind is drawn to quantities. I've read that 40,000 people die every year in car crashes. 13 in every 100,000 people die every single year in auto accidents. We all know someone who has died in a car wreck I suspect. And it doesnt lessen the tragedy, but it also doesnt consume our consciousness. In fact we hardly ever stop to think about it beyond a wreath on the side of the road.

But this in our current social and traditional media environment, dominates our thoughts. And again rightly so. I just wonder if in a simpler time it would have even registered. In a rural ag community such as mine, its just about planting time. And I can imagine that being all grandpa thought about. With an occasional cursory thought to "those poor folks in Nw York battling that virus"..and maybe I selfishly long for that life.

Yeah I'm in a similar boat. Information is good, social distancing, isolating is good and without the modern media this might not be happening. However on the flip side continual updates and information can just be overwhelming and the days I have not spent much time reading about it have been the least anxious.

I guess the best way to answer your question would be what historians have said about what happened during the Spanish Flu. Were small towns blindsided? Were some areas unaffected? I don't know the answers as I don't know much about this topic honestly.

Trump should just mandate it.

He's not going to mandate anything, because he's trying to take credit for anything good that happens, but he wants to blame states for their own problems and I guess he's hoping the problems stay in mostly the blue states. If Florida goes south, that could be a major problem for him.

Good post CU Tiger. A few points that strike me.

s. Ive read that 40,000 people die every year in car crashes. 13 in every 100,000 people die every single year in auto accidents. We all know someone who has died in a car wreck I suspect. And it doesnt lessen the tragedy, but it also doesnt consume our consciousness. In fact we hardly ever stop to think about it beyond a wreath on the side of the road.

Sure. Over half a million die each from heart disease and cancer. The difference between those and your examples and a pandemic is that they aren't contagious. Normal living doesn't materially affect other people dying from that. It does in a pandemic. That doesn't explain all of the difference, but it's a good part of it.

I just wonder if in a simpler time it would have even registered. In a rural ag community such as mine, its just about planting time. And I can imagine that being all grandpa thought about. With an occasional cursory thought to "those poor folks in Nw York battling that virus"..and maybe I selfishly long for that life.

I think this is true, but that there's more to it. Globalization has brought with it many benefits, and also challenges. In fact, there are more pandemics now because of the fact that we continue pushing into parts of the world where wildlife was previously left undisturbed … including the viruses they carry. Two generations ago, much less back in 1918, we didn't expect as much from medical science in terms of stopping premature deaths, prolonging life, etc. We also didn't have all the modern benefits we get from global trade. All of that is part and parcel of the increased connectedness - life just used to be harder, and in general shorter. Any random infection could kill you, nevermind malaria, tuberculosis, polio, etc. One of the reasons cancer and heart disease are such a problem now is that so many more people even live long enough to have such issues.

I have no issues with the nostalgia, I just think we should remember that there was a price paid for that style of life.

In a related note, I have always thought that as a comparision, they should write down close to the coronavirus deaths, the amout of deaths by common flu, car accidents, cancer, etc for the same period so we can see the relative effect.

The only info I have seen about it was today in the Spanish news, that 1 of every 2 deaths in Spain today are because cov19.

If you're not from Minnesota, the specific information may not necessarily be that interesting to you, but the way the department of health has improved their information of reporting over the past week has been pretty remarkable:

Situation Update for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Minnesota Dept. of Health (https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html)

Number of cases in each county (with color-coded map and Excel dump of raw numbers), a pie chart of likely exposure (cruise ship, out of state, community transmission, and so on), a bar chart of the demographics of those infected, hospitalization information including those in ICU, and the median age range for those infected, hospitalized, in the ICU, and deceased.

Wimbledon cancelled.

Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.

First world problems to be sure, but I can't wait for the upcoming fight for camp deposits and summer activity refunds.

Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.

criminal the way that governor has handled this.

And Georgia is still leaving it up county by county.

Someone in the US needs to stand up and help get those American citizens off the cruise ships. Saying they can go back to the country they are flagged under is no way to treat our own citizens. There's a shit ton of empty hotels and dorms, so this isn't an impossible problem.

I only mention this because Johns Hopkins newsletter had a blurb about it. Kinsa makes smart thermometers and can track readings around the country. It has been helpful in anticipating influenza outbreaks over the years. And it was a leading indicator that New York would be hit hard.

Good News: They state that fevers have gone down around the country. A sign that social distancing may be working.

Bad News: Uhhh...look at Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/Ai4B0hB.jpg?1

And Georgia is still leaving it up county by county.

Fulton county finally issued the stay at home, but this is ridiculous. Can Kemp do something or does he just not care?

Bad News: Uhhh...look at Florida.

Super-great. The southeast in general, and southern Michigan while we're at it, aren't looking too rosy either.

Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.

I don’t want to seem ungrateful but...

DeSantis demurred when asked what penalties he’d impose for those violating the order.

“We don’t know how all these measures are going to work,” DeSantis said. “But we’ll figure out on the back end how this will work out.”

Governor, you are a Floridian and a military officer. As a Floridian, you know we Floridians are already loathe to follow orders as it is. An order without consequences? Only if we are feeling nice.

As a military officer, it is your plan Sir. You are supposed to know how this is going to work on the front end then adapt and overcome on the back end.

The Florida statewide shutdown order expires on April 30, though at least one major study out of the University of Washington predicted Florida’s peak for coronavirus cases would be May 3.
Oofa - it's gonna be a long depressing month ahead of us. I only wish this was an April Fool's joke...

Fulton county finally issued the stay at home, but this is ridiculous. Can Kemp do something or does he just not care?

Business interests are too much in Kemp's ear, IMO.

The only info I have seen about it was today in the Spanish news, that 1 of every 2 deaths in Spain today are because cov19.

Yes, this sounds about right, maybe a bit less but not much. Most years about 400k people die in Spain. In Lombardy it has been quite a bit more than 50% for 10 days now and that is assuming deaths outside hospitals are even counted as Covid and not as undetermined (they are not in France and the UK).

And remember that most other illnesses aren't being 'force-prevented' (forbidding people from driving cars or smoking or eating unhealthy) and merely treated after the fact.

In the end it will hopefully be remembered what happened in the (hopefully) brief period it was not prevented from being devastating, not have people in 10 or 15 years look back and think "well, it were't that many deaths overall" and fuck up the response when the next and maybe more deadly virus hits.

Looks like Florida shamed Kemp. Stay at home in GA

Still no stay at home order in Missouri. But the Governor did talk about the economic impact. $500 million shortfall in budget because of revenue declines.

Money over lives I guess.

Looks like Florida shamed Kemp. Stay at home in GA

Looking for AL to call it also.

We are not listening. We are Italy. We are not doing enough.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pence on <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNN</a> just now: &quot;We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point.&quot;</p>&mdash; Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1245377621623541820?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The predictability of the bad decisions along this path has been so frustrating. Once it became clear that denying the crisis was a politically savvy move at various points in time, we were cooked. We're Italy all right.

MS governor issues stay-at-home order, but it is probably not going to change that much.

Here is part of our governors presser today:

The governor also defended his decision to resist issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.

“We look to see how many counties in the state of Missouri have a positive hit, and how many of multiple hits,” said Parson. He said as of Tuesday there were 95 counties in the state with fewer than 5 cases. He said part of his decision-making process involves the economic impact a shutdown would have on those communities

First world problems to be sure, but I can't wait for the upcoming fight for camp deposits and summer activity refunds.

Our signup for summer programs started after the initial stay at home was issued in the Bay Area, so, with the information that was available, we made the decision then to not sign the kids up and make other plans. We didn't want to worry about getting a refund.

We're not having the cohesive response needed, though parts of it are good, but we're not Italy. It might be sheer luck that we're not, but still.

What exactly are they doing to protect the sailors on the Navy ships?

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Why in the world does the coronavirus briefing have the Defense Secretary talking about increased narcotics enforcement in the East Pacific and Carribean?