JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-03-2021, 04:22 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Week 5 BCS Rankings

<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /><link href="http://dynasties.operationsports.com/css/osdyn.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"></head><body><table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" class="osdyn" width="575"><tr class="masthead_alt"><td bgcolor="#871016" colspan="6"><span style="color:#FFFFFF">NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 3, 2021</span></td></tr><tr class="stathead"><td width="8%">RK</td><td width="8%">LW</td><td width="49%">TEAM</td><td align="center" width="10%">W</td><td align="center" width="10%">L</td><td align="center" width="15%">POINTS</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>Georgia</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.9723</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>Alabama</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.9710</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>Iowa</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8835</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>4</td><td>6</td><td>Penn State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8257</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>5</td><td>9</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8224</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>6</td><td>5</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8215</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>7</td><td>12</td><td>Michigan</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.7072</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>8</td><td>10</td><td>Ohio State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.6690</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9</td><td>14</td><td>BYU</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.5415</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10</td><td>17</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.5381</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11</td><td>3</td><td>Oregon</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.5284</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>12</td><td>16</td><td>Michigan State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.4901</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>13</td><td>7</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4835</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>14</td><td>8</td><td>Arkansas</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4506</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>15</td><td>NR</td><td>Kentucky</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.4479</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>16</td><td>18</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.3560</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>17</td><td>13</td><td>Ole Miss</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.3416</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>18</td><td>11</td><td>Florida</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.3156</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>19</td><td>21</td><td>Texas</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.2743</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>20</td><td>NR</td><td>Wake Forest</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.2491</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>21</td><td>24</td><td>Auburn</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.2447</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>22</td><td>19</td><td>Clemson</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.1464</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>23</td><td>25</td><td>SMU</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.1384</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>24</td><td>NR</td><td>NC State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.1294</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>25</td><td>NR</td><td>Arizona State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.1228</td></tr></table></body></html>

Next Five
26. Iowa State - 0.0789
27. San Diego State - 0.0583
27. Pittsburgh - 0.0583
29. UT-San Antonio - 0.0382
30. Wyoming - 0.0367

Dropped Out
15. Texas A&M (Now #34)
20. UCLA (Now #36)
22. Fresno State (Now #44)
23. Baylor (Now #38)

College Football Playoff

Computers Love (Greatest Difference Over Human Poll Average)
Texas (+0.2935)
Iowa State (+0.2117)
Florida (+0.1866)
Oklahoma State (+0.1528)
SMU (+0.1524)

Computers Hate (Greatest Difference Under Human Poll Average)
Oregon (-0.3725)
Coastal Carolina (-0.2489)
BYU (-0.2272)
Michigan State (-0.1951)
Ole Miss (-0.1374)

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-10-2021, 07:20 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Week 6 BCS Standings

<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /><link href="http://dynasties.operationsports.com/css/osdyn.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"></head><body><table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" class="osdyn" width="575"><tr class="masthead_alt"><td bgcolor="#871016" colspan="6"><span style="color:#FFFFFF">NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 10, 2021</span></td></tr><tr class="stathead"><td width="8%">RK</td><td width="8%">LW</td><td width="49%">TEAM</td><td align="center" width="10%">W</td><td align="center" width="10%">L</td><td align="center" width="15%">POINTS</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>Georgia</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.9998</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>Iowa</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.9394</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8685</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>4</td><td>5</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8468</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>5</td><td>2</td><td>Alabama</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.8228</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>Michigan</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.7654</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>7</td><td>8</td><td>Ohio State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.7494</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>8</td><td>4</td><td>Penn State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.7239</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9</td><td>15</td><td>Kentucky</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.5913</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10</td><td>10</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.5852</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11</td><td>12</td><td>Michigan State</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.5716</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>12</td><td>13</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.5350</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>13</td><td>11</td><td>Oregon</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4933</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>14</td><td>17</td><td>Ole Miss</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4429</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>15</td><td>16</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.3583</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>16</td><td>18</td><td>Florida</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.3368</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>17</td><td>20</td><td>Wake Forest</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.3221</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>18</td><td>14</td><td>Arkansas</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.2503</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>19</td><td>9</td><td>BYU</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.2474</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>20</td><td>NR</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.2327</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>21</td><td>25</td><td>Arizona State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.2157</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>22</td><td>23</td><td>SMU</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.1836</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>23</td><td>19</td><td>Texas</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.1584</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>24</td><td>24</td><td>NC State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.1295</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>25</td><td>22</td><td>Clemson</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.0953</td></tr>
<tr class="evenrow"><td>25</td><td>NR</td><td>Baylor</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.0953</td></tr></table></body></html>

Next Four
27. San Diego State (0.0898)
28. Auburn (0.0862)
29. Iowa State (0.0837)
30. Pittsburgh (0.0809)

Dropped Out of Top 25
#21 Auburn (Now #28)

College Football Playoff

*No MAC schools scored any points in the BCS spreadsheet this week. By average, Western Michigan is the highest rated MAC school in the four computer rankings)

Computers Love (Greatest Difference Over Human Average)
Texas - (+.3024)
Iowa State - (+.2345)
Pittsburgh - (+.2086)
Notre Dame - (+.1425)
Baylor - (+.1420)

Computers Hate (Greatest Difference Under Human Average)
Oregon - (-.4699)
Coastal Carolina - (-.2675)
Michigan State - (-.2274)
NC State (-.1643)
Cincinnati (-.1302)

**bigbob** · 10-11-2021, 01:00 AM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

I love it.

The funny thing to me is how much we complained about the BCS and "needed" more of the human aspec.. when in reality, the BCS was pretty damn accurate.

Thanks for doing this.

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-11-2021, 01:29 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Originally posted by bigbob

I love it.

The funny thing to me is how much we complained about the BCS and "needed" more of the human aspec.. when in reality, the BCS was pretty damn accurate.

Thanks for doing this.

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

Looking back, I don't necessarily think fans were angry at the BCS. We were angry that we wanted a playoff and they gave us a national title game. The BCS was an imperfect solution to the prior problem that we were never guaranteed a bowl matchup between #1 and #2.

I always argued for a four team playoff. Then the funny thing is we get it and now I want more.

Appreciate it.

**Tovarich** · 10-12-2021, 05:28 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Originally posted by bigbob

I love it.

The funny thing to me is how much we complained about the BCS and "needed" more of the human aspec.. when in reality, the BCS was pretty damn accurate.

Thanks for doing this.

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

I can't help but find the irony in the small schools complaining that they were never included in a BCS championship when undefeated and no power team was...and with the committee, they are light years away from it so far. If Nebraska's kicker didn't put the kickoff out of bounds in the Big 12 Championship, Cincinnati would've played for one in the BCS era. If they are 13-0 and still get left out, then I think it's official that they're just plain banned from the playoff.

**Collegefbfan** · 10-12-2021, 08:37 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Man, pretty awesome. I do a computer poll myself. Sort of like the BCS with no human element in it. Just factors in winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. It is close to yours, but a little off also towards the bottom. It works out the more the season progresses.

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-12-2021, 10:27 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Originally posted by Collegefbfan

Man, pretty awesome. I do a computer poll myself. Sort of like the BCS with no human element in it. Just factors in winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. It is close to yours, but a little off also towards the bottom. It works out the more the season progresses.

Sounds like something similar to the college basketball RPI. I remember back in high school, I calculated the RPI for the local high school region for a prep website.

God I was such a nerd (still am lol).

Thanks for checking in.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

**Collegefbfan** · 10-13-2021, 06:15 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

I was going to post mine, but didn't want to take over your thread.

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-13-2021, 06:20 PM

JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Originally posted by Collegefbfan

I was going to post mine, but didn't want to take over your thread.

Honestly, I don’t mind. I’d be interested in seeing them.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

**Collegefbfan** · 10-13-2021, 06:45 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

1 Georgia 9.989
2 Iowa 9.965
3 Oklahoma State 9.845
4 Michigan 9.561
5 Kentucky 9.113
6 Oklahoma 9.084
7 Cincinnati 9.070
8 Wake Forest 8.021
9 Penn State 7.847
10 Notre Dame 7.562
11 Ohio State 7.277
12 Michigan State 7.228
13 Alabama 7.208
14 Wyoming 7.171
15 Oregon 6.966
16 Ole Miss 6.930
17 BYU 6.853
18 SMU 6.675
19 Kansas State 6.649
20 UTSA 6.551
21 San Diego State 6.508
22 Clemson 6.266
23 Texas 6.202
24 Arkansas 5.906
25 Coastal Carolina 5.850

Many think Arkansas should be ahead of Texas because of the beating they gave Texas, but this formula doesn't factor in head to head games. It all plays out in the end. Been doing it for years with this formula. Let me know what you think.

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-13-2021, 07:23 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Originally posted by Collegefbfan

1 Georgia 9.989
2 Iowa 9.965
3 Oklahoma State 9.845
4 Michigan 9.561
5 Kentucky 9.113
6 Oklahoma 9.084
7 Cincinnati 9.070
8 Wake Forest 8.021
9 Penn State 7.847
10 Notre Dame 7.562
11 Ohio State 7.277
12 Michigan State 7.228
13 Alabama 7.208
14 Wyoming 7.171
15 Oregon 6.966
16 Ole Miss 6.930
17 BYU 6.853
18 SMU 6.675
19 Kansas State 6.649
20 UTSA 6.551
21 San Diego State 6.508
22 Clemson 6.266
23 Texas 6.202
24 Arkansas 5.906
25 Coastal Carolina 5.850

Many think Arkansas should be ahead of Texas because of the beating they gave Texas, but this formula doesn't factor in head to head games. It all plays out in the end. Been doing it for years with this formula. Let me know what you think.

I can definitely tell it's based on RPI, just looking at how some teams are ranked. But hey, I dig it.

What's the scale? To 10?

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-17-2021, 04:31 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

* With the Wolfe ratings releasing this week, I am now up to five of the six BCS computer systems out (the lone holdout is Anderson & Hester). With that, I am now removing the highest computer rating from each school.

Week 7 BCS Standings

<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /><link href="http://dynasties.operationsports.com/css/osdyn.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"></head><body><table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" class="osdyn" width="575"><tr class="masthead_alt"><td bgcolor="#871016" colspan="6"><span style="color:#FFFFFF">NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 17, 2021</span></td></tr><tr class="stathead"><td width="8%">RK</td><td width="8%">LW</td><td width="49%">TEAM</td><td align="center" width="10%">W</td><td align="center" width="10%">L</td><td align="center" width="15%">AVG</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>Georgia</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">1.0000</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8928</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.8915</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>4</td><td>5</td><td>Alabama</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.8214</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>5</td><td>6</td><td>Michigan</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.7734</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>Ohio State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.7193</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>7</td><td>10</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.7065</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>8</td><td>8</td><td>Penn State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.7055</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9</td><td>2</td><td>Iowa</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.6833</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10</td><td>11</td><td>Michigan State</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.6119</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11</td><td>12</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.5322</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>12</td><td>9</td><td>Kentucky</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4829</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>13</td><td>14</td><td>Ole Miss</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4788</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>14</td><td>13</td><td>Oregon</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.4647</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>15</td><td>15</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.3342</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>16</td><td>17</td><td>Wake Forest</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.3226</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>17</td><td>20</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.2857</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>18</td><td>25</td><td>Baylor</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.2824</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>19</td><td>NR</td><td>Auburn</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.2586</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>20</td><td>24</td><td>NC State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.2376</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>21</td><td>22</td><td>SMU</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.2043</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>22</td><td>NR</td><td>San Diego State</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.1786</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>23</td><td>NR</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">0.1302</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>24</td><td>NR</td><td>UT-San Antonio</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">0.0850</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>25</td><td>NR</td><td>Iowa State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">0.0574</td></tr></table></body></html>

Next Five
26. Clemson (0.0502)
27. Florida (0.0429)
28. Texas (0.0319)
29. Utah (0.0296)
30. Air Force (0.0215)

Dropped Out of Top 25
#16 Florida (Now #27)
#18 Arkansas (Now #33)
#19 BYU (Now #32)
#21 Arizona State (Now #34)
#23 Texas (Now #28)
#25 Clemson (Now #26)

College Football Playoff

*No MAC schools scored any points in the BCS spreadsheet. Western Michigan gets the automatic bid being the highest ranked MAC school in four of the five computer systems.

Computers Love (Greatest Over Human Poll Average)
1. Baylor (+.1465)
2. Iowa State (+.1239)
3. Notre Dame (+.1167)
4. Auburn (+.1070)
5. Florida (+.1007)

Computers Hate (Greatest Under Human Poll Average)
1. Oregon (-.5771)
2. Coastal Carolina (-.3213)
3. Wake Forest (-.2738)
4. Michigan State (-.2579)
5. Ohio State (-.2390)

**Collegefbfan** · 10-20-2021, 08:23 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Kinda crazy that my computer poll is a little different, but also hates Oregon.

**jasontoddwhitt** · 10-20-2021, 08:36 PM

Re: JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

Originally posted by Collegefbfan

Kinda crazy that my computer poll is a little different, but also hates Oregon.

The computers absolutely hate Oregon. Let's peel back the layers here....

AP Poll: 1,054 votes - .6692 (1,054/1,575) AP Poll average
Coaches Poll: 1,048 votes - .6449 (1,048/1,625) Coaches' Poll average

Sagarin: 19th - 7 points (highest rating struck)
Billingsley: 26th - 0 points
Colley: 25th - 1 point
Massey: 20th - 6 points
Wolfe: 25th - 1 point
Total points: 8 points

CPU Average: .0800 (8/100)

BCS Average: (.6692 + .6449 + .0800)/3 = .4647

It makes sense though. They do have the victory over Ohio State. After that though....

Victories over
5-2 Fresno State (not terrible)
Struggled to beat a 1-5 Cal
Blew out 0-7 Stony Brook (FCS)
Blew out 0-6 Arizona

Then a horrible loss to a marginal Stanford squad.

JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

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JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

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