Rookie
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Re: Chicago Cubs (MLB 13: The Show)
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Matt Garza (18 GS, 5-7, 3.91 ERA, 96 K, 103.2 IP)
2. RHP Jeff Samardzija (28 GS, 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 180 K, 174.2 IP)
3. RHP Edwin Jackson (31 GS, 10-11, 4.03 ERA, 168 K, 189.2 IP)
4. RHP Scott Feldman (29 G, 21 GS, 6-11, 5.09 ERA, 96 K, 123.2 IP)
5. RHP Carlos Villanueva (38 G, 16 GS, 7-7, 4.16 ERA, 122 K, 125.1 IP)
DL - RHP Scott Baker (did not play - Tommy John surgery)
Cubs starting pitchers combined for a 4.52 ERA last season, which ranked 23rd in all of baseball and ahead of only Houston and Colorado in the National League.
As such, pitching was their main focus this offseason, and they added four capable arms who should at least give them a fighting chance this season.
The biggest addition was Jackson, who signed a four-year, $52 million deal. He's not a staff ace, but he's as consistent and durable as they come, having averaged 11 wins and 193 innings pitched over the past six seasons. He joins Garza and Samardzija atop the rotation, and he'll likely be the team's No. 2 starter by season's end, with Garza expected to be moved.
Entering his final year of team control, Garza likely would have been moved last offseason had it not been for an arm injury that ended his season in late July. Extending him is certainly still a possibility, but if the two sides can't come to terms, he's sure to be shopped come July.
Samardzija, on the other hand, enjoyed a breakout season in his first full year as a starter, and if he can build off of his 2012 performance, he could be the ace of the staff long-term.
Filling out the rest of the staff are Feldman and Villanueva, both of whom split last season between the rotation and bullpen (with mixed results), and Baker, who is likely to start the season on the DL. Much like Paul Maholm last year, those guys could be flipped for prospects if they have strong first halves. Baker and Feldman signed one-year deals, while Villanueva was brought on for two seasons.
There is not much in the way of reinforcements at the minor league level should injuries strike. Brooks Raley and Chris Rusin got their feet wet last season, but they are nothing more than organizational depth.
Projected Bullpen
CL Carlos Marmol (61 G, 3-3, 20 SV, 3.42 ERA, 11.7 K/9)
SU Kyuji Fujikawa (48 G, 2-2, 24 SV, 1.32 ERA, 10.9 K/9 in Japan)
SU Shawn Camp (80 G, 3-6, 2 SV, 3.59 ERA, 6.3 K/9)
MR James Russell (77 G, 7-1, 2 SV, 3.25 ERA, 7.1 K/9)
MR Michael Bowden (32 G, 0-0, 2.95 ERA, 7.3 K/9)
MR Hisanori Takahashi (51 G, 0-3, 5.54 ERA, 9.3 K/9)
LR Hector Rondon (4 G, 0-0, 1.29 ERA, 11.6 K/9 in minors)
The Carlos Marmol roller coaster will continue in 2013, though he was nearly traded to the Angels for right-hander Dan Haren this offseason.
Due $9.8 million in the final year of his contract, Marmol could be on the move at the deadline with a strong first half. The devastating slider is still there, and if he can lower his walk rate a bit (7.3 walks per nine innings in 2012), he could once again be a premier closer.
The team found its replacement for Marmol in Fujikawa, signing him to a two-year, $9.5 million deal after he spent the past 14 seasons with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. The 32-year old has piled up 220 saves, a 1.77 ERA and 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings during his career in Japan, and if nothing else, he should lock down the eighth inning role.
Camp was re-signed to a one-year, $1.35 million deal after leading the NL in appearances last season, and he'll be back alongside left-hander Russell, who has quietly emerged as one of the best lefty relievers in the game.
Bowden, who was acquired from the Red Sox for Marlon Byrd last season, is a former top prospect who could settle into a key bullpen role with his terrific fastball/curveball combo.
Takahashi was signed to a minor league deal and will have every chance to win a roster spot this spring, while Rondon was selected from the Tigers in the Rule 5 draft. Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow have limited him to just 13 appearances over the past three seasons, but he throws in the high 90s and could make a major impact if healthy.
Final Thoughts/Predictions
As the full-scale rebuilding process continues in Chicago, it will likely be another long season for the Cubs.
Improving the starting rotation should be enough for them to improve on last season's 101-loss campaign, but with the Astros moving to the AL West, Chicago will be hard-pressed to avoid a last-place finish in the NL Central this coming season.
The farm system has some terrific top-end talent and should continue to get better as the Cubs again look to deal veteran pieces at the trade deadline.
By 2015, the Cubs could be in position to contend with a fantastic young core of hitters. For the time being, though, Cubs fan will need to continue to be patient as Theo Epstein and company lay the groundwork for sustained success.
Projected Record: 70-92 (fifth in NL Central; miss playoffs)
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