NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

[Chip Douglass]

Looking forward to this one more than any other divisional game.

[Dirty Turtles]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

I expect another knockdown/drag out battle, just like the one they had during the regular season. This would be a much better NFC Championship game than any combination we will eventually get.

[theultimatewi]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Yeah, it should be a great game. Falcons is my pick right now though. Just seems like this Packers team makes too many mistakes in big games for me to feel more confident in their chances.

[TheMatrix31]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Should be fantastic. Love Rodgers and Ryan.

Gonna pull for the Packers though....I've had them going to the Super Bowl this year since last year's ended.

[55]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

The only two teams in the NFC that I could see beating Atlanta at home this season in the playoffs were the two teams that were eliminated this weekend. I like Atlanta in this one and in the NFC Championship game regardless of what happens in the Seahawks/Bears game.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

From the Falcons-Packers game thread:

I knew it would be the case.

Anyway, GG Falcons. Both Offenses played very efficient out there but the difference was one team had a running game today and the other didn't.

One thing I will say: Please let us see them again in Atlanta. That's all I'm asking for.

The Football Gods have blessed me.

[nccomicfan]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Green Bay is the hottest team in the league...would love to see the Falcons but this appears to be Aaron Rodger's time

[LingeringRegime]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

The Dome will make the difference. 31-26 ATL.

[55]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Green Bay is the hottest team in the league...

Ahem...

Spoiler

Winners of 8 straight...

[BleacherBum2310]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Can't wait for this Re-Match, and this time around we will have a running game. Going to be an exciting game for sure.

[Senator Palmer]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

This will be about as good a Saturday prime time match-up as the NFL could have hoped for.

Since these teams have faced one another already and had it come down to the wire, I think it'll be interesting to look at this game from the coach's match-up. Which coaching staff learned their lessons best? Who's going to make the right adjustment?

Mike Mularkey vs. Dom Capers -- Capers has to be one of the three best defensive minds in all of football right now. Taking a team from a 4-3 to a 3-4 is a leap that should take a few seasons to bare fruit. He did it in one season and produced the #2 defense. They run a lot of sub packages, even on early downs, with two linemen, against an offense's base personnel in order to bring those overload pressures. He almost dares the offense to run.

Against the Falcons, when they started to get gashed in the run, they came out of that sub package and ran a lot more base 3-4 than usual. The key thing I thought in the first game was that Matt Ryan stayed pretty clean. Green Bay recorded two sacks -- one where Zombo flat beat his man, the other was a coverage sack by Jenkins. But for the most part, Ryan dissected the Green Bay secondary and got the ball out on time. He didn't put up a ton of yards but he went something like 14-15 in the second half. I'm interested to see how Capers brings it this time because the Falcons' center McClure is one of the best in the league at identifying fronts and adjusting protections.

Mularkey is an enigma to me. I like his philosophy and the design of his offense. A plethora of personnel groupings, just about everything you can think of. Strong on the ground with big sets, 2 and sometimes 3 TE packages to compliment a well designed passing game that attacks every level of the field with everything from the spread to the I-formation. He was known as "Inspector Gadget" when he was with the Steelers for his penchant for trick plays, but his gameplans and playcalling have been pretty straightforward while in Atlanta and at times predictable.

Atlanta's 1st series are usually very well scripted -- mixing groupings and run/pass nicely, then they settle in to pound you and wear you down. I expect him to try to attack in much the same way in this match-up and maybe even go to the no-huddle a little sooner to spread Green Bay out so that Ryan can see where everything is coming from.



Advantage: I'm tempted to favor Capers here, but with two weeks to rest and prepare and all the weapons at Mularkey's disposal, I don't see a distinct advantage here.

[Senator Palmer]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Mike Smith/Van Gorder vs. Mike McCarthy:

Mike Smith is a really good coach... really good. He's my pick for coach of the year, even though he won't win it. Not only does he seem to be in rhythm, hitting the right notes with his team -- "you get what you earn" comes out of his mouth a lot, and you'll hear his players echo that quote often -- he is also pretty balsy. He is 11-15 this season on 4th down, which makes his decision to kick late in that Saints game all the more inexplicable.

The scheme that he and Van Gorder implores is reminiscent of what Smith ran in Jacksonville and has its roots in that 2000 Raven team that he was part of. It's more of a read and react system that leans on those big interior guys on the d-line to keep fast linebackers clean to stuff the run. Green Bay didn't get much going from the running backs in the first game. I expect it to be the same here. Atlanta has defended the run well all year. They have missed a fit here or there, and can be vulnerable to misdirection but they've been really good at corp running plays. Where the Packers did fluster the Falcons in the first game was Aaron Rodgers breaking the pocket. He finished as GB's top ground gainer with 51 yards.

Coverage-wise, they tend to lean on 2 and 3 Deep Zones that can be soft in the middle, but are designed to never let you get over the top, while relying on Abraham to get after it in passing situations. Although, lately, with the development of Grimes and the safeties, Van Gorder has mixed in more man coverage and straight man blitzes.

That is where they play right into McCarthy's hands and was almost their undoing in the first game. The Falcon's pre-snap movement tends to give things away too early IMO. The first game, I could see every blitz Atlanta was bringing and I knew Rodgers could too. In fact, he saw it to the tune of 344 yards.

McCarthy gets a lot of criticism for his game management at times, but the design of his passing offense is a thing of beauty. He has Rodgers schooled to the point where the ball now comes out very fast -- he almost knows where he is going before the ball is snapped. McCarthy also has a penchant for mixing in various funky formations to get the ball to his playmakers. The first game, he pulled out a ton of 5 receiver sets and picked apart that Atlanta secondary.

For some reason, I don't think it's going to be that easy this time. The Atlanta pass defense has gotten a lot better since then, namely the safeties, and the 4 man rush has gotten more consistent. It'll be interesting to watch how Smith and Van Gorder adjust the rush angles to try to box Rodgers in better this time, or if he'll continue to break containment.

I think McCarthy will try to flirt with some 5 receiver sets early, but I would venture to guess that you'll see more of what you saw against the Eagles today. A few more condensed sets to give Rodgers added protection because there is the concussion issue to worry about.

Advantage: I don't see one.




The last game came down to the red zone and so will this one. Atlanta, while putting up over 25 points a game, has let teams hang around by kicking field goals when they should be throwing knockout blows with TDs and Green Bay's big turnover by Rodgers at the goal line really hurt the final tally.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

Tackling was a HUGE issue that went unnoticed from that game. Especially from us because alot of Turner's yards came on just poor tackling from us.

[Chrisksaint]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

The Dome will make the difference. 31-26 ATL.

Dome won't make a difference for a team that has already played there this season imo.

Green Bay was pretty close to winning in the regular season and can make the arguement that they should have won I suppose. Green Bay wins 34-24, Ryan throws a pick late in the 4th hopefully destroying this Matty Ice thing

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: NFC Divisional: Packers @ Falcons

FWIW, no team has scored more than 20 points on our Defense in now 10 games.