05-01-2025, 12:04 PM
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#230
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MVP
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Royals Mailbag (05/05)
 ROYALS MAILBAG
Offense at the front of mind of fans in the early going
By artoodeetoo
05/05/2025
It's that time again -- with a little over a month's worth of games under their belts, it's now time to take some initial stock of the Royals' season to date, and what could be in store down the road. Most of the consternation is about the offense, so keep in mind that yesterday's 19-17 offensive fireworks show isn't accounted for in the responses regarding the offense, as these were mostly written a few days prior.
Do we need a new hitting coach?
I think the Royals missed an absolutely golden opportunity to bring Kevin Seitzer back, but decided to stick with Alec Zumwalt; who has done an otherwise fine job of rebuilding the minor league hitting apparatus. However, the results as the main hitting coach at the major league level...? I'd put that as 'mixed', and that's being kind. The progress that he made in the minors with Bobby Witt Jr, Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez was extraordinary, but the latter two have fallen off a cliff, and Witt was very likely going to hit no matter who the hitting coach is.
There's a chance, albeit small, that JJ Picollo could decide to go in a different direction mid-season, but it's still unlikely. My guess is that barring some miraculous turnaround, Zumwalt likely goes back down to the minors and oversees the minor league program full-time again. Drew Saylor took over for Zumwalt when he was promoted to the major league club, but before that, he and Zumwalt co-ran the program. They could do that again, for sure.
That said, there are too many good, professional hitters on this roster to be this bad. Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr, and to a lesser extent Jonathan India aren't going to be enough to carry the bottom of the lineup that looks like they couldn't hack it in Triple-A right now.
Why is the offense so bad?
As I touched on in the previous answer, I don't think it is all Zumwalt's fault. There are players that are absolutely better, much better, than what they've showed and they just have to start hitting better. Full stop. I mean, Hunter Renfroe has an OPS in the single digits, and no matter how much money you're making, you can't stick around at that number. Michael Massey outside of his hot start in the first week or so, has been a mess both offensively AND defensively.
Others like MJ Melendez and Maikel Garcia at least can draw walks and put the ball in play, but at some point the ball has to find grass or the seats, and they're doing neither. I think what's making fan angst worse is that you have players in the minors that are tearing the cover off the ball, and they're not up without any chatter that they could be soon.
I'd absolutely send down Massey or Garcia down and get Nick Loftin up and playing him every day, even if just to send a message from the top that you're not guaranteed anything in this league, and what you did last year doesn't matter now. He's a god-awful defender outside of first base, but even if he's somewhat less effective with the Royals as a hitter compared to his Triple-A numbers, Loftin would still be miles better than what's being trotted out now.
It's also a bit early to consider a trade, but I wouldn't rule it out. The injuries to Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo are going to put a giant magnifying glass on Matt Quatraro and how he juggles the lineup with so many black holes in it right now. The panic button isn't ready to be pushed; however, it's blinking red right now.
Is the front office already regretting the Michael Wacha signing? If not, should they be?
It hasn't been good, that's for sure. Even when you take his advanced stats into consideration (more on that soon), it's still not great, but it paints a clearer picture as to what he's had to deal with in his handful of starts to date.
First, the bad -- too many walks (18) and too many hits (47). Now, hits are not fully under the control of the pitcher, which is why his xFIP is nearly a full run and a half lower than his actual ERA, but his SIERA, which is a better, more widely-used advanced metric, has him over two-and-a-half full runs better (4.32) than his actual ERA (7.08).
But his strikeouts are up (8.7 K/9), and his GB% is just a hair over 48%, both being improvements over the 2024 season, so just simple regressions to the mean will help out quite a bit.
If some of the raw numbers don't show some improvements, then there could be some narrowing between those and the peripherals as more data comes in, but it's a bit early to be hitting the panic button here, especially with others like Kris Bubic and Michael Lorenzen pitching well.
What's something that is getting overlooked with this team we should talk about more?
This team has shied completely away from the running game, and they are horrendous defensively. It's really strange to be talking about a Royals team that is bad defensively, but they're bad. Real bad. Maikel Garcia has no business playing shortstop, but you gotta give BWJ a break every now and then. Again, Michael Massey has been bad defensively, and you have to wonder if his offensive struggles have bled over into the field. They're still fairly strong up the middle, with Kyle Isbel, Witt, and both catchers giving the Royals varying levels of success, but the corners on both the infield and outfield have been average-to-downright bad.
There's also no reason why this team can't a top-five base-stealing team every year, and this year's squad has so much speed in the lineup and on the bench, there's no excuse. They're just a middle-of-the-pack team on the basepaths, and part of their struggles is they can't get their best base runners on base to do anything. Still, they need to run as much as they can when they get on. A team that is struggling for this much offense needs a spark any way they can, and they're not aggressive enough.
Who gets to the majors first -- Jac Caglianone or Blake Mitchell?
I know most will say Caglianone, and they're probably right, but Mitchell I think is closer than most realize. I don't know that he'll ever hit for a high average, but his defensive chops behind the plate are already very good and scouts around the league think his plate knowledge and discipline is major-league ready. The days of Salvador Perez catching 120+ games per season is well in the rear-view, so some playing time could open up for him perhaps later this year if the bat comes around any more.
Jac has gotten off to a bit of a slow start in Double-A, mainly due to more strikeouts than normal, but the exit velo's are still outstanding when he does make contact, and his defense at first base is coming along. With his plus-arm, the corner outfield is still his best future position (and his quickest path to MLB PA's); however, he is a bit clunky fundamentally, so if they're willing to let him learn a bit in the minors, he could end up as an average corner outfielder that can get a half-dozen assists per year or more.
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