2025 NFL Offseason/Free Agency/Draft thread
 

With the combine starting, it feels like time for the new thread.

Moreso than all of the drills, this is a chance for all of the media folks to talk to all of the team insiders. So next week, we'll maybe start to get some more solid reporting on which guys are getting buzz going into the draft.

My guess is that Carter will go first. Pass rusher is too valuable.

Thoughts?

I've heard the Giants are pretty locked in to drafting a QB #3, today Schefty is pushing the Browns taking one too at #2... Tennessee might be able to trade down a small bit and get Carter (or at least Hunter) if that's their goal. https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...57003948253247 Still hoping against hope Carter falls to the Pats at 4, but I really don't think it's happening - becomes an interesting game of Hunter vs Mason Graham for me at that point, but other people keep putting Will Campbell or even Tet in that mix, that's the point to me I'd trade down.

As interior offensive line starts getting valued more highly, a guy like Will Campbell who can play different positions is really going to benefit

I saw a mock today with the Giants taking Hunter at three and Sanders falling to the Jets at 7. That would be a delicious car wreck.

Ehh, I don't really see it. If the Pats pick Campbell at 4 and he has to kick inside to be even a really good guard before his rookie contract is done that's a disastrous pick. I do think it could help the tweeners like Membou/Milum/Zabel move up into the back half of the 1st round if you're convinced their floor is "good OL SOMEwhere", but I think what's really helping Will Campbell right now is that Francis Mauigoa and Kadyn Proctor aren't draft eligible until next year.

Did it have Cam Ward top 2 or going 6 to Vegas? That would be delightful but I have a pretty hard time seeing the Giants and Raiders both passing up Shedeur even if I don't rate him that highly. Would also lean towards hoping the Pats get Oakland and Jets in a bidding war if just 1 of those 2 QB's are still on the board at 4, getting extra draft capital so the Jets can pick Shedeur at 4 sounds even better than them picking him at 7 :D

I believe it had Ward at 2. Maybe the RB from Boise to the Raiders. Carter was one.

My only future bet on the draft, from early December, was taking 50-1 on DE Abdul Carter to go #1. I like that now, I see him at +145 on DraftKings (who won't let me cash it out at anything like those implied odds, which I would likely be inclined to do).

Dart at 80-1 is intriguing a bit. Not absurd to see him wowing at the combine and becoming the buzz guy like McCarthy was last year (but in a much weaker QB class this year).

I like the Dart idea. Might put $10 on that at 80-1

Interesting, but I do feel like Pete Carroll would be more inclined to get a vet QB over drafting a guy at all costs, maybe it's not as crazy as them passing on Shedeur sounded in December. Jeanty's a fun one to predict, I saw Daniel Jeremiah putting him up in his Tier 1 with Carter and Hunter for talent at their position, and Saquan/Henry/Jacobs were monsters for top teams this season - could we get a running back picked as high as #5 again?

Rumors are Carter needs foot surgery.

Damn

yeah, not loving that

by the way, who leaked that... Deion?

Latest sounds like he is going to skip surgery and work out this week. Has an option ahead to do a minor surgery with an 8-week recovery forecast.

Drew Rosenhaus, ever advocating his own clients' best outcomes, still predicting Carter will go #1. I suddenly find virtue in this man.

Its a good reminder that for all we obsess over 3-cone drills, the heart of the combine is still putting 300 guys under MRI machines and looking for problems.

This. All of it is a bit overrated, yet still if a previously undervalued guy comes in and runs a 4.2 forty, it does tend to make them a few more bucks.

Given the interest guys like Stafford and other QBs are getting from teams like the Raiders and Giants, it seems lie they aren't that enamored with the QBs in the draft. Would be interesting if the Browns, Giants and Raiders all pass on them - how far do they fall?

Mason Graham might have been better skipping the combine, though I guess if your measurables are that off... there's no way to get out of that. 296 instead 320 lbs is a difference in what you can do at DT in the NFL. Just barely 6 feet makes you Poona Ford, rather than Jonathan Allen. 32" arms make you, I dunno, a T-Rex?

So he's a finesse guy, without power, who might not be effective slipping outside on stunts, etc.

Guy has some good tape, but he's gonna move down some boards.

On the flipside, what is the Rams' plan in this scenario? Darnold? Zach Wilson? UGA Screech?

Thats fairly comparable to Warren Sapp and Aaron Donald. They seemed to do ok. I wouldnt move Graham down at all just based on that.

I've been noodling on that, too. McVay thinks highly of himself, but when he felt topped out with Goff he moved aggressively. What fits? He has to be high on someone in reach, right? I think it has to be Darnold.

HT: 6034 (59th percentile)
WT: 296 lbs. (26th percentile)
Arm: 32” (12th percentile)

Draft him high with those numbers and he busts, you're an unemployed GM.

Physical measurements are the other important part of the combine. That's a really good point.

Hmm the tweet says that height but the other sites i went to fir combine measurements showed Graham much taller?

Every site i visit for combine measurements is saying 6'3 and 1/2

I did this last year, so thought I'd revisit it. Based on QBR rankings from 2024.

Tier 1: Fully Elite. Consistently win games in each of the following ways, often in the same game: perfectly executing a sophisticated gameplan, effective improvisation, innate athleticism. Their teams' losses are most often due to circumstances beyond their control. There's pretty much nothing else they can add at this point, except a Brady-esque ability to terrorize the well-being of entire opponent organizations into losing.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson

Tier 2: About as good as a pure pocket passer is going to get in today's NFL, consistently undermined by his team's inability to field a defense:
Joe Burrow

Tier 3: Probably has gaps that keep him from being Fully Elite, but they're masked by the quality of the organization around him (also kind of the exact opposite of Tier 2):
Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy

Tier 4: Rookie that looks like he'll be Tier 1, but we're not putting him in Tier 1 yet because look it's only been one year, OK?
Jayden Daniels

Tier 5: Strong year in an organization that finally got its shit together. Now we'll see if he's Tier 3 or Tier 1.
Justin Herbert

Tier 6: Needs good offensive weapons and/or strong play-calling, but shines with those, future development/regression is unclear:
Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold

Tier 7: Formerly Tier 2 but Father Time is catching up. Could be a strong fit for exactly the right organization, but also the bottom could completely fall out at any time:
Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers

Tier 8: Formerly Tier 6, but regressed. Their organizations need to quickly figure their own shit out, then their QBs, to determine if these guys are going to take them somewhere:
Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud

Tier 8: Rookies we think have a chance to be Tier 1, 2, or 3 with possible stops in Tier 6 along the way:
Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams

Tier 9: Merely a stop-gap measure at this point. Won't tend to actively lose you games, and might help get you to the playoffs in the right situation, but isn't going to bring you sustained success:
Dak Prescott, Geno Smith

Tier 10: Works well in a very specific role in a very rigid offense and is also unreliable and stresses everyone out who watches him play:
Tua Tagovailoa

Tier 11: Washed, organizations signing these guys are kidding themselves:
Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins

Tier 12: Will actively lose you games, start tanking:
Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, Will Levis

Tier 13: Absolutely no one knows where this guy is going:
Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young

...nodding my head as I read through it, waiting for your Tua analysis and I think you nailed that too

I really don't agree with Rodgers and Stafford and mildly uncomfortable with Stroud and Lawrence being in the same tier. I'd put Rodgers in the same tier as Russ and say I'm reasonably comfortable saying they are washed with a small chance that in the right org they can be something like a half decent QB.

The rest seems to make sense to me. Nice work.

DOLA - how long at this point until they decide to kill the combine, or turn it into something that doesn’t involve anything on field or physical? It would be one thing if teams penalized players for not working out but with basically anyone who has a first round grade opting out what’s the point.

Some time ago I’d catch as much of it on TV and read as much about it as I could but haven’t done so in a number of years. Are GMs and coaches even all there any more?

They are all there. From what i gather the interviews are at least as if not more important than the physical aspects. It may not seem like it is worth it to the fan who drools over their first round pick, but i have no doubt its still a huge part of the process for teams.

Yeah I'm not agreeing on Stafford at all. Sure he's old and the bottom could fall out, but if or until it does he's a solid tier 2 for me. Except the Rams have a good defense.

Rodgers for me is a tougher call on just where he fits. Talk is around if Stafford does leave the Rams Rodgers might be the "fill in" as he might respect and listen to McVey. Then you hear he's interested and wants to bring Devante Adams with him. Huh? The Rams may have to add a WR when they trade Kupp, but not an old one. They want young and "cheap". Too me this shows Rodgers being a bit tone deaf and doesn't get that he's no longer in the "I get what I want" class. I don't think this happens, but if it does, it's the Rams gifting him a position on a team that can win now. But only if he shuts up and listens. Not sure he's capable of that. ;)

I'd agree with this. It's lost the luster for the fans as far as television goes. It's still very valuable for the mid to lower round guys that have a chance to turn heads.

Stafford staying in LA on a restructured deal. Makes the most sense.

Interesting that the NYG and Raiders were discussing deals similar to what Cousins got (2 years at $90-100M).

Carr you’re such a non-entity that you forgot to put him in a tier ��

Nine or 11 would work I think

I knew I was forgetting someone. But Carr must not have played enough snaps for QBR or something. He's not on the page: https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Kent Lee Platte is a 9.9/10 twitter follow with a 14/10 mustache

Stafford: I could agree with an argument of Tier 2 sliding to Tier 6, but a) you can't deny the advantage playing for McVay gives him and b) it really seems likely that he's not that far away from a really key injury exacerbated by age or going over the performance cliff.

Rodgers: I definitely debated "washed" because he had some solid games late in the season (but so did Russ). I felt he was still a lot less limited than someone like Russ and in just the right situation with the right motivation he could bring some old Rodgers magic, but also the bottom seems really close to falling out.

Lawrence & Stroud were hard to judge, to be honest. Both clearly had (have?) talent but have been a bit victimized by their organizations, but their poor performance goes beyond that.

These four were definitely the toughest to categorize. Good comments & thoughts, and thanks for the kudos.

Carr in his own tier of good enough to keep his job but hes going to get his head coach fired for losing.

I like this guy as well.

https://x.com/GridironGrading

All you assholes are still on Twitter? Wtf

I agree on the age injury, but until there is an injury/age related fall off in play, we are at "if and when". ;)

As far as McVay? IDK Mahomes has only played for Reid. IMHO Stafford did quite well while in dysfunctional Detroit. I think Mahomes in "Stafford's Detroit", with the same Detroit coaches does well too, but what would his body of work be compared to what it is now? Would "Detroit Mahomes" be a tier 1, or 2? IDK. Now put rookie Matt Stafford in Mahomes place and time with Reid in KC. How is his body of work affected? I guess all I'm saying is NFL coaching makes more difference than the coaching in any other sports league. I think the only comp you find is going to be the tactics in soccer/football. At the end of the day all of these QBs end up with who they end up with. Great/good ones have at least some success no matter who they get. Average need a coach, and if they get a great coach they can have a lot of success. Below average pretty much don't stand a chance. :)

IMHO post Super Bowl Joe Burrow (holes in the Swiss cheese aligned for probably the only time) is on a similar path as "Detroit Stafford" with all of the dysfunction in the Bengal's organization. Except he is much more injury prone than young Matt Stafford. I'm not a Bengals' fan but I do hope the team is sold to someone that will spend some of that NFL money or he is able to find a way to get out of there.

It is a good list and certainly not easy to write. Appreciate you sharing it and the conversation that goes with it. :)

Debo to the redskins. Great move for them

Returns on draft picks are so funny. I’ve seen places suggest a 5th was an overspend and they are surprised he even got that. Then you look at what kind of a career the average fifth rounder has. Definitely an imbalance in the market that the smart GMs are still exploiting.

You have to take contract value and age into account. Whats better Deebo or a 5th round pick and a 15 million free agent. Successful teams have to build through the draft primarily, not by trading for expensive players. The commanders having an already elite level qb on a rookie contract affords them more luxury to make a deal like this.

He’s 28 and still had over 700 all purpose yards last season. Getting better value through the FA market requires you to bid against all other 31 teams, or you can give up a 5th round pick which has a pretty slim chance of ever returning similar value. He’s got less of a cap hit than Gabe Davis who was one of the “prizes” of last years FA.

Obviously it’s team dependent, but for contending teams it’s a no brainer.

DOLA - a 15m free agent according to Spotrac this offseason is DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs. Basically guys in exactly the same category as Deebo. I'll take the sure thing for the fifth rounder over gambling I can get one of those guys for slightly below value.

He had 670 receiving yards, thats a dud season. He may rebound and i think its a solid move for the commanders. For most teams, giving up an asset for deebo would not be a good move.

If 15M can get you a free agent that's basically in the same category as Deebo, doesn't that suggest there's no value at all in trading for Deebo?

Cap goes up every season plus you are bidding for them against all the other teams and you may end up eating a longer contract. Let’s see what those players end up signing for, but I think it’s perfectly smart to say for a 5th we will just take the known commodity.

I agree that coaching and even just landing in a decent organization is an important piece, which is why I call it out in a few tiers.

Stafford's definitely interesting. Obviously he was in a terrible situation for ages, but I also remember him trying to hero-ball his way out of it a lot. Does Mahomes play a different, more effective, style if he's in Detroit from the start? Does it make him Tier 1 or do we end up all "eh, he's a game manager"?

Great points, though, and I definitely agree. Not only are QBs lifted up or held back, from a single-season perspective (which was where the majority of my head was at with this particular ranking), but how they develop and how likely they are to reach their ceiling depends a lot on where they land when they come into the league.


100% agreed.


Thanks! Appreciate everyone's thoughts and critiques!