And $40 million might be less than they actually pay.

Yeah, I guess Jordan Love got $55m a year and you'd think Purdy would be worth more.

You really need to look at guaranteed money and cap hits. When Love signed a 4-year, $220 mil extension, everyone was like "Holy Crap, $55 mil per year?!" Here's the actual cap hits:
2024: 20.7 mil
2025: 29.5 mil
2026: 36.1 mil
2027: 42.4 mil
2028: 74.2 mil ($15 mil dead cap if cut)

I'm pretty sure he's not playing for $74 mil in 2028 :D

That's still $155m in guarantees. I'm sure they can play with the numbers to reduce the impact with a Purdy extension but they're still not going to have a starting QB making $1m a year any longer, which was a remarkable deal.

This is a good point. When the Raiders do Genos extension, i expect it to look like an overpay but hoping it used a similar structure (but averaging more like 45m) to make the deal look like a lot more thab it actually is.

Looks like the next stop in the Jacoby Brissett train is Arizona where he will backup Murray.

Jacoby Brissett is going to end up being as valuable as Ryan Fitzpatrick in Immaculate Grid

As for Purdy: 5 years/250 million/200 million guaranteed.

Is that speculation, or are you hearing this from somewhere?

Neither. Just my opinion on what would be fair.

Josh Allen got 6 years/330 million/250 million guaranteed
Trevor Lawrence got 5 years/275 million/200 million guaranteed
Jordan Love got 4 years/220 million/160 million guaranteed

So 5/250/200 feels right for Purdy.

It's just a thought experiment, I suppose, but do we really think Purdy would get a comparable haul elsewhere?

I guess you can't isolate that one element in this complex system, but... if the 49ers just declared a cap catastrophe and let him walk into free agency, would a team like the Jets/Giants/Raiders be thinking he's a $50m/yr guy? Or am I leaning too hard into the "Shanahan system" vibe in thinking this is even a question?

That's got to be on everyone's mind, right? The counterpoint to that is what's left in FA and in this year's draft, so I think someone would overpay (or give him the reasonable going rate for someone with his production).

But if you asked any front office, I'm guessing they'd want to see what he does (or doesn't do) this coming year with the team having lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I'm sure there are a significant number of people who are skeptical he won't take a big step backwards.

Take the Giants - Rodgers/Mac Jones for a 1 year and then reevaluate, or Purdy for the next 4 years?

I see your point, and you might be right.

But it feels like the Love/Lawrence contracts are the right benchmark for him. Below the Mahomes/Allen tier. But above the Darnold tier.

I think that if he hits UFA, some team will pull the trigger. All it takes is two to get into a bidding war.

Now, of course, he might decide that playing in a nice city for the most QB-friendly coach in the league for 30/year is actually a pretty sweet deal and decide to take that.

But I do think that he could get 40/year guaranteed and 50/year total if he decided to maximize his leverage.

So a fun little follow on to the QB rankings game... the midpoint for a non-rookie NFL starting QB contract is 30 million against the cap in 2025 (Jordan Love who I think everyone would agree is about around the midpoint and is 15th in cap hit next season)

How many QBs in the league (or how far do you have to go down Flere's tier list) are you comfortable signing to that deal for max term and the majority of it guaranteed? Maybe the answer is all of them, because that's just the price of admission to being an NFL team that isn't in the basement and it is what it is, and maybe $30m isn't actually that much given what the cap is right now.

But it's interesting because in my head I was thinking I'm really not comfortable giving it to Purdy and then from there I went to the only guys I'd be totally happy giving that much money to are the Tier 1/2 guys plus Herbert. Thinking that's probably a me thing, but I guess I'm glad I'm not an NFL GM or I'd probably have a really impressive roster totally torpedoed by crappy QB play.

One thing that I've started to see a few places do that is helpful is to talk about cap hits in terms of percentage of the cap.

The cap rises so quickly that our sense of absolute numbers has to keep changing and always (for me at least) feels a few years behind.

$30/year still feels like elite QB money to me. But it isn't anymore. And it can be hard to adjust to that on a yearly basis.

That's where sites like spotrac are valuable. Being able to see the percentage of cap hit, the contract breakdowns, and where potential outs in a contract are is so valuable.

How much is guaranteed and if the team has an easy out in 2 seasons may be in question, but I think Brock Purdy definitely gets those numbers on the open market. Those bad teams just gave Daniel Jones 4/$160m and Aaron Rodgers 3/$112m. Kirk Cousins leaving Washington and going to Minnesota is probably the comp, and the Vikings did quite well during the life of that initial deal.

Ian Rapport is now saying that it looks like the Falcons are not bluffing, and Cousins is not getting cut. They plan to hold him into the season unless some team offers something of value for him. Chances are either by camp or by the trade deadline, some team is going to have a desperate need and come hat in hand.

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I wonder how much they're hoping to get for him.

My guess is not really much. Late pick, or maybe a player. Mostly, picking up some of his salary.

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The market for QBs makes absolutely zero sense. Fields had no trade market, went cheap to the Steelers, played at the same level he had with the Bears, and then signs for 20 mil per in free agency. I can't imagine the trade market for Cousins is any better, but who knows.

I think it is a sign of progress that no team jumped in to wildly overpay for Kupp.

Past-their-prime guys with big names used to always get that final huge contract from some impulsive owner or other.

Yeah, but Jerry Jones is the owner of one of the top 3 teams with interest in Kupp. So, we'll see...

Ksyrup, our boy, Tim Patrick, is back in Honolulu Blue for another year!

I see that! Good for him.

He's definitely not a #1, but he'd be ours... hypothetically what's an overpay from the Pats with their rookie contract QB, nothing resembling a #1, and still like $60 million in cap space after the mostly defensive splurge on Day 1 and Godwin turning us down? I'd be fine giving him $25m this year with basically a 2nd year option or lower price point before I'd ever want to touch Amari Cooper or Stefon Diggs at what they're asking.

Man I'm sure glad Cooper Kupp is going to be out of the NFC West...CRAP!

I tried 3 times to post news of his signing here yesterday but this place was down most of the evening and night (for me anyway).

Me as well. It was very slow when it did work.

Seattle? Really? That's disappointing as a Rams fan:mad: . If he's staying out west I'd rather he was a Cardinal. :eek:

Kupp at this point is a decent #3 receiver who struggles to get open and to stay healthy. Hes a massive overpay

The Falcons are officially keeping Cousins. They are paying the $10 million dollars roster bonus that is due at 4pm. All the teams counting on him being cut are going to have to reassess.

That’s a lot of Kohl’s cash

Is this a gamble that someone will go down between now and the start of the season and they can get something for him to at least partially salvage the contract they gave him? Or he's staying just in case Penix flounders or gets hurt?

Yes to both. They do believe there will be an interested team before the season starts, but in the end they are fine having him as a back up if Penix gets hurts (or worst case scenario, implodes). It just didn't make cap sense to cut him.

He also seems like a decent human being that they can trust not to petulantly blow up the team b/c he's pissed that he's not starting.

If he were Aaron Rodgers, they would have cut him and changed all the facility locks just to make sure.

Okay then the bengals got their WRs signed to long super duper contracts

So they just need to win every game like 50-49 since they will have no defense to stop opposing touchdowns and oh yeah the how's that Oline and Dline doing?

Bengals definitely going for the Fun As Hell approach this year. Don't know how it will reflect in the win-loss record. But it'll be Fun as Hell to watch.

dola: And, man, Burrow does not give you a ton of rushing numbers, but he's gotta be in the offseason lead for fantasy QB1, right?

I'd still take Allen & Lamar before Burrow. But I do think it's those 3 and then you pause until the later rounds to pick up a QB (in 1QB leagues).

Stingly gets 3 years/$90 million from Texans.

The deal contains $89 million in guarantees, so props to the Texans for holding firm and refusing to give a fully guaranteed contract :lol:

Still feel like the Bengals would have been better off moving Higgins a year or two ago when he had a lot of value. They just have so much money tied up in skill positions going forward that it's going to be extremely hard to build in the trenches without some amazing drafts.

and as we all know that's the only thing that matters

There top four salaries aren't really out of line with the rest of the league. It just comes down to they need to draft better, but that would be true regardless of these extensions. Once you pay the QB, you have to hit on more draft picks than the Bengals have.

Completely agree. Pay Burrow, Chase and Hendrickson. Trade Higgins. Use accumulated picks to fill out other holes on the roster and add a cap controlled young wide receiver.

And a new QB since Burrow seems to have made it clear what he wants & expects.

This is a franchise who aren't that far removed from having a 7 year starter (Palmer) willing to retire rather than play for them again. Pretty much everyone writing about the Bengals seems to feel like keeping Burrow happy was primary for them. Right or wrong, I don't think they were willing to risk having to tear the offense down and start over.

edit to add: Let's remember here, Burrow re-signed back in Sept 2023. We don't know what promises were made to get him to agree to that deal.

The Bengals tried to set things up so that Higgins could be traded, but Iosivas isn't more than a #3 and Jermaine Burton is a complete disaster. They risked having a receiver room where Iosivas was #2 and Charlie Jones was #3 with the rest filled with names like Mitchell Tinsley and Cole Burgess.

They have the same issue on the D-line. In theory Ossai, Murphy, Johnson, Jenkins, and Jackson should be cover for losing aging vets like Hendrickson and Reader. In practice, though, none of the draft picks have shown as even average players yet.

This, plus the Bengals need to warm up to the "sell your future" mentality that's kinda required if you have top-tier talent at premier slots like they do. Organizationally, they have been unwilling to borrow against the cap of 2-4 years out, and that leaves them playing with only 85c on the dollar to the teams who are all in right now.

That said, I'm digging it for fantasy/DFS purposes.

Drafting Dart at 9 is the kind of move you make if you want to fast-track becoming the Jets or Browns.

Well, everyone is going to point to last year, right? When the conventional wisdom was Nix and Penix were the guys who were going to be around late 1st or into day two, and might prove to be interesting enough for a team with a bit of an itch at QB.

Dart is seemingly that guy this year (unless he's McCarthy, I suppose). And the way we now think about Nix in particular doesn't make this feel like a terrible idea.

Where you are at QB basically defines what stage your team is in, in the modern NFL. It' really hard to criticize teams for saying "we can find a tackle/edge/corner somewhere, but we won't get another chance to take a shot on this QB."