That WR room has had some combination of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens every year since 2010.

This is normal for that room.

So what you're saying is that you'd think they oughta know better by now.

That money for a guy who has failed to break 1000 yards as many seasons as he's gone over is utterly insane. Unless they are going to start to give wins and losses for pure athleticism, I have no idea what the Steelers are doing here.

Compare that to the deal Davante Adams signed, he managed to have 1100 yards with two of the most dysfunctional teams in the league last year. Crazy money, and a second round pick to boot.

I read an article that has DK's deal #5 among WR's but spotrac, a website that tracks contracts, has it at #3 behind just Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.

DK is an absolute 1 of 1 combo of size and athleticism but I think THAT much on a 27-year-old (will turn 28 in December during the season) for potential is crazy. At what age do you stop paying for potential?

At that price, it seems like you would be competitive to sign Chris Godwin, and you wouldn't have to give up a second round pick for him.

I know several people here like The Athletic Football Podcast with Robert Mays.

They are doing a livestream of FA reactions starting at noon Eastern today: Free Agency Day One Blowout - YouTube

Because of all the tampering that was done before the official tampering that starts today, they are actually starting the live stream at 11:30am EDT.

We all have that one friend who has a type despite knowing better.

Bears sign Dalman -- 3 years $42M with $28M guaranteed. An overpay, but a smart one considering what was available in the draft and in FA.

Yeah Dalman was the only guaranteed day 1 starter at center that was really available. He was far and away the biggest need.

really good so far

and WOW was my mental picture of Mike Sando WAY WAY WAY off, I had him easily 20 years older and much more crusty, based on nothing but voice and the vague allusions to stuff he has done

I know Jaycee Horn has been good, but he's missed a ton of games in his short career and was only ranked 57th by PFF for CBs in 2024. I know PFF isn't perfect, but he gave up 6 TDs, almost 7 yards a target, and he didn't seem to help a defense that quite possibly was the worst in NFL history.

All that said, how did he become the highest paid CB in NFL history?

Timing

Horn extension just appalling to me, too... feel like they are trying to retcon taking him ahead of the clearly superior (both now and at the time) Patrick Surtain II

Pretty much every analysis I’ve read agrees with that. It’s a PR contract given out by a truly awful franchise and owner to try to gaslight fans into thinking he was a great pick more than it’s based on any realistic assessment of his play and value.

Hey, it’s their money they can spend it how they like right?

Darnold to the Seahawks

Reported 3 years $110.5 million, 55 guaranteed!

Fields to the Jets. Good luck there.

2yrs/$40mil/$30mil guaranteed.

2 years, $40 million, with $30 mil guaranteed for Fields.

Edit: lol

I guess that's slightly better than going with an untested rookie or 40 year old QB.

Better for the untested rookie or 40 year old QB options at least.

I am going to work myself into feeling excited by this, in time.

But never forget, #LOLJets

Right, except teams working through a rookie-contract QB are interesting to see, and I don't know whether Bryce Young is him, exactly, but... we deserve to see the better version of the Carolina play-out, which would be to NOT do this deal.

Agree

Nearly every penny should be spent doing their best to emulate what Brock Purdy has in SF. He's the best case scenario for Young and it's worth seeing what his ceiling is. Right now he's trending toward being the next Darnold-like reclamation project for someone that knows how to develop qbs.

+1 on the extended rationale there

Not if they wanted to spend it on Milton Williams, suck it Tepper! (I don't think anyone is wrong on the PR parts of the Horn deal, but I also think they had to pay the homegrown draftee and they're not gonna be at a point $3-$5 milllion/year really matters any time soon so who cares if he's overpaid?)

Pats with a nice day. Usually I hate winning FA Day 1 but we're in the rare position where have sooooooo much cap space and so many obvious holes these all seem like wins. Often you can already see the future downside or how it'll limit flexibility down the line, but other than Williams all these deals have been 3 years a.k.a. overlapping with Drake Maye's rookie deal, if any go sideways we should be able to just eat it instead of rolling out bad money onto future cap sheets. LT still a gaping hole and I don't want Will Campbell at 4, but given what Dan Moore got I shudder about what Cam Robinson will get. I'm also the rare Pats fan who doesn't feel a need to spend on a big name WR unless Chris Godwin wanted to come, I'd take like a Darius Slayton but I think Boutte/Bourne/Pop/Polk are fine, especially if we end up with Hunter or a different rookie WR like Tre Harris 2nd round. No interest in older names like Amari Cooper or Nuke Hopkins.

Harris is beast-or-bust to me, the problem is whether you can keep him healthy enough to be on the field.

I'd have doubts about that.

I'm not sure there's much of a worse situation for Darnold to go to, not that any of the QB needy teams would have had an offense like the Vikes.

I'm worried for him about how soon that is going to turn into an absolute shitshow. I don't have PFF so maybe somebody can look it up, but another metric had them as the 30th ranked offensive line last year. And they just traded or released their top 2 receivers.

Laremy Tunsil traded to the Commanders.

per Schefter

Source: former Falcons Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett — released today from Atlanta — already has found a new home, reaching agreement on a 3-year $43.5 million deal including $28.5 million fully guaranteed with the Chicago Bears.

No comment on the O-Line but JSN had passed Lockett and DK as WR#1 last season.

Texans Tunsil move is weird with CJ Stroud, basically just got a 2 and a 3 for him. Shaq Mason out the door too but reports implied he fell off physically in 2024.

Well guess Cleveland had a plan for a new QB after all-trade with the Eagles to get Kenny Pickett and their backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson to Philly. Cleveland gives up a 5th rounder too

I assume they got Pickett for free and paid Philly a 5th to take DTR off their hands?

Still plenty of "i can fix him" opinions out there on DTR

Have to imagine this is driven by cap considerations in out-years. Stroud is going to need to get paid in a couple years' time (otherwise they're just fuct and none of this matters), and once he does you won't have the capacity to pay everyone. Draft an OT in this year's draft to replace Tunsil and maybe you get a couple more cheap seasons at an expensive position when you really need it.

He is older than I thought, turning 31 in August, but still strikes me as too cute by the Texans. I think they picked Blake Fisher in the 2nd last year with an eye to this, but I didn't like him at ND and PFF really didn't like him for the Texans last year. Bad juxtaposition when they're moving out multiple big name linemen but bringing in overpaid WR's like Christian Kirk, and even in the trade you're mostly recouping draft assets you moved for Stefon Diggs.

Pats are desperate for a decent LT, Kansas City is out there getting very creative and moving a lot around to try and get Mahomes a real LT, guys like Dan Moore are getting 4/$80m on the market and meanwhile Houston is happy to give up a good one.

Is he good? Bears couldn't stop the run at all last year.

He's an upgrade from that, but his value lay primarily in a) being a fan favorite after 10 seasons, and b) any remaining pass rush.

He's 31,blew an ACL in 2023, and PFF has him 54th/219 vs the run, 98th/219 vs the pass last season.

Agree with this. Texans seemed to have a path to sustained success with Stroud on a rookie deal if they made sensible decisions, and then they've mostly done the opposite since then. They've got unlucky with injuries somewhat and the dropoff in QB play last year probably has them all freaked out, but I think too cute is probably accurate.

Teams are getting smarter.

The teams with possible franchise young QBs are all (smartly) overpaying to ensure that they have a solid O-line.

The era of "Should we get him a pass catcher or a defense or a running back or some blockers?" is over. We now all know that the answer is blockers.

Steelers in "win now" mode without a quarterback is certainly a choice.

Aaron Rodgers and the Rooneys don't seem like they would do well together, but it seems like it is down to him, running Russell Wilson back out after both sides seemed to burn the bridge down, or someone from the pile of Mariotta/Flacco/Winston or Mac or Daniel Jones or one of the 3rd-6th best QB in the draft class with a staff that can't develop QBs.

Can I interest you in a slightly used Kirk Cousins?

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I'd be enjoying my guaranteed $100M as a backup QB and not making any demands.

Probably an overpay but they need all the help they can get on the line. And they have been sitting on cap space for awhile. Not going to complain about them upgrading the line when they're usually wasting the money on off the ball linebackers and backup tight ends.

So what's the deal with the Niners? Are they really that cap strapped or is this some kind of rebuild? Usually having a QB on a rookie deal gives you a whole lot of flexibility.

Getting out of the Deebo contract seems good. But they're losing a lot of really good players too in free agency.

And then Houston over here zagging! Signed 33y/o Laken Tomlinson today (older, but cool if he's the Shaq Mason replacement)... and immediately moved the guard they picked 15th 3 years ago for a safety. :confused:

49ers are racking up comp picks

49ers are apparently clearing space for the Purdy extension... but I'm not sure he's that much of a generational QB that you really need to do that a year ahead of time. We are going to find out just how much of an offensive genius Kyle Shanahan is this year - betting on an injury free year from McCaffrey and Kittle I guess is the plan.

If the 49ers don't win a Super Bowl are they up there with the early 90's Bills for best run from a team that didn't win/most disappointing denouement? Another team that looked dominant after building out the lines that then started spending draft capital and huge extension $$$ on luxury pieces at skill positions, now they're 6-11 talking about comp picks and whether they can save $$$ by paying their (average? above average?) QB $40 million or $50 million a season, it can happen fast.

I think the issue is that you can be a contender with Brock Purdy if he's making rookie scale money. I don't think you can be a contender if Brock Purdy is making $40 million a year.

And $40 million might be less than they actually pay.

Yeah, I guess Jordan Love got $55m a year and you'd think Purdy would be worth more.

You really need to look at guaranteed money and cap hits. When Love signed a 4-year, $220 mil extension, everyone was like "Holy Crap, $55 mil per year?!" Here's the actual cap hits:
2024: 20.7 mil
2025: 29.5 mil
2026: 36.1 mil
2027: 42.4 mil
2028: 74.2 mil ($15 mil dead cap if cut)

I'm pretty sure he's not playing for $74 mil in 2028 :D

That's still $155m in guarantees. I'm sure they can play with the numbers to reduce the impact with a Purdy extension but they're still not going to have a starting QB making $1m a year any longer, which was a remarkable deal.

This is a good point. When the Raiders do Genos extension, i expect it to look like an overpay but hoping it used a similar structure (but averaging more like 45m) to make the deal look like a lot more thab it actually is.

Looks like the next stop in the Jacoby Brissett train is Arizona where he will backup Murray.

Jacoby Brissett is going to end up being as valuable as Ryan Fitzpatrick in Immaculate Grid

As for Purdy: 5 years/250 million/200 million guaranteed.

Is that speculation, or are you hearing this from somewhere?

Neither. Just my opinion on what would be fair.

Josh Allen got 6 years/330 million/250 million guaranteed
Trevor Lawrence got 5 years/275 million/200 million guaranteed
Jordan Love got 4 years/220 million/160 million guaranteed

So 5/250/200 feels right for Purdy.

It's just a thought experiment, I suppose, but do we really think Purdy would get a comparable haul elsewhere?

I guess you can't isolate that one element in this complex system, but... if the 49ers just declared a cap catastrophe and let him walk into free agency, would a team like the Jets/Giants/Raiders be thinking he's a $50m/yr guy? Or am I leaning too hard into the "Shanahan system" vibe in thinking this is even a question?

That's got to be on everyone's mind, right? The counterpoint to that is what's left in FA and in this year's draft, so I think someone would overpay (or give him the reasonable going rate for someone with his production).

But if you asked any front office, I'm guessing they'd want to see what he does (or doesn't do) this coming year with the team having lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I'm sure there are a significant number of people who are skeptical he won't take a big step backwards.

Take the Giants - Rodgers/Mac Jones for a 1 year and then reevaluate, or Purdy for the next 4 years?

I see your point, and you might be right.

But it feels like the Love/Lawrence contracts are the right benchmark for him. Below the Mahomes/Allen tier. But above the Darnold tier.

I think that if he hits UFA, some team will pull the trigger. All it takes is two to get into a bidding war.

Now, of course, he might decide that playing in a nice city for the most QB-friendly coach in the league for 30/year is actually a pretty sweet deal and decide to take that.

But I do think that he could get 40/year guaranteed and 50/year total if he decided to maximize his leverage.

So a fun little follow on to the QB rankings game... the midpoint for a non-rookie NFL starting QB contract is 30 million against the cap in 2025 (Jordan Love who I think everyone would agree is about around the midpoint and is 15th in cap hit next season)

How many QBs in the league (or how far do you have to go down Flere's tier list) are you comfortable signing to that deal for max term and the majority of it guaranteed? Maybe the answer is all of them, because that's just the price of admission to being an NFL team that isn't in the basement and it is what it is, and maybe $30m isn't actually that much given what the cap is right now.

But it's interesting because in my head I was thinking I'm really not comfortable giving it to Purdy and then from there I went to the only guys I'd be totally happy giving that much money to are the Tier 1/2 guys plus Herbert. Thinking that's probably a me thing, but I guess I'm glad I'm not an NFL GM or I'd probably have a really impressive roster totally torpedoed by crappy QB play.

One thing that I've started to see a few places do that is helpful is to talk about cap hits in terms of percentage of the cap.

The cap rises so quickly that our sense of absolute numbers has to keep changing and always (for me at least) feels a few years behind.

$30/year still feels like elite QB money to me. But it isn't anymore. And it can be hard to adjust to that on a yearly basis.

That's where sites like spotrac are valuable. Being able to see the percentage of cap hit, the contract breakdowns, and where potential outs in a contract are is so valuable.

How much is guaranteed and if the team has an easy out in 2 seasons may be in question, but I think Brock Purdy definitely gets those numbers on the open market. Those bad teams just gave Daniel Jones 4/$160m and Aaron Rodgers 3/$112m. Kirk Cousins leaving Washington and going to Minnesota is probably the comp, and the Vikings did quite well during the life of that initial deal.

Ian Rapport is now saying that it looks like the Falcons are not bluffing, and Cousins is not getting cut. They plan to hold him into the season unless some team offers something of value for him. Chances are either by camp or by the trade deadline, some team is going to have a desperate need and come hat in hand.

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I wonder how much they're hoping to get for him.

My guess is not really much. Late pick, or maybe a player. Mostly, picking up some of his salary.

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The market for QBs makes absolutely zero sense. Fields had no trade market, went cheap to the Steelers, played at the same level he had with the Bears, and then signs for 20 mil per in free agency. I can't imagine the trade market for Cousins is any better, but who knows.

I think it is a sign of progress that no team jumped in to wildly overpay for Kupp.

Past-their-prime guys with big names used to always get that final huge contract from some impulsive owner or other.

Yeah, but Jerry Jones is the owner of one of the top 3 teams with interest in Kupp. So, we'll see...

Ksyrup, our boy, Tim Patrick, is back in Honolulu Blue for another year!

I see that! Good for him.

He's definitely not a #1, but he'd be ours... hypothetically what's an overpay from the Pats with their rookie contract QB, nothing resembling a #1, and still like $60 million in cap space after the mostly defensive splurge on Day 1 and Godwin turning us down? I'd be fine giving him $25m this year with basically a 2nd year option or lower price point before I'd ever want to touch Amari Cooper or Stefon Diggs at what they're asking.

Man I'm sure glad Cooper Kupp is going to be out of the NFC West...CRAP!

I tried 3 times to post news of his signing here yesterday but this place was down most of the evening and night (for me anyway).

Me as well. It was very slow when it did work.

Seattle? Really? That's disappointing as a Rams fan:mad: . If he's staying out west I'd rather he was a Cardinal. :eek:

Kupp at this point is a decent #3 receiver who struggles to get open and to stay healthy. Hes a massive overpay

The Falcons are officially keeping Cousins. They are paying the $10 million dollars roster bonus that is due at 4pm. All the teams counting on him being cut are going to have to reassess.

That’s a lot of Kohl’s cash

Is this a gamble that someone will go down between now and the start of the season and they can get something for him to at least partially salvage the contract they gave him? Or he's staying just in case Penix flounders or gets hurt?

Yes to both. They do believe there will be an interested team before the season starts, but in the end they are fine having him as a back up if Penix gets hurts (or worst case scenario, implodes). It just didn't make cap sense to cut him.

He also seems like a decent human being that they can trust not to petulantly blow up the team b/c he's pissed that he's not starting.

If he were Aaron Rodgers, they would have cut him and changed all the facility locks just to make sure.

Okay then the bengals got their WRs signed to long super duper contracts

So they just need to win every game like 50-49 since they will have no defense to stop opposing touchdowns and oh yeah the how's that Oline and Dline doing?

Bengals definitely going for the Fun As Hell approach this year. Don't know how it will reflect in the win-loss record. But it'll be Fun as Hell to watch.

dola: And, man, Burrow does not give you a ton of rushing numbers, but he's gotta be in the offseason lead for fantasy QB1, right?

I'd still take Allen & Lamar before Burrow. But I do think it's those 3 and then you pause until the later rounds to pick up a QB (in 1QB leagues).

Stingly gets 3 years/$90 million from Texans.

The deal contains $89 million in guarantees, so props to the Texans for holding firm and refusing to give a fully guaranteed contract :lol:

Still feel like the Bengals would have been better off moving Higgins a year or two ago when he had a lot of value. They just have so much money tied up in skill positions going forward that it's going to be extremely hard to build in the trenches without some amazing drafts.

and as we all know that's the only thing that matters

There top four salaries aren't really out of line with the rest of the league. It just comes down to they need to draft better, but that would be true regardless of these extensions. Once you pay the QB, you have to hit on more draft picks than the Bengals have.

Completely agree. Pay Burrow, Chase and Hendrickson. Trade Higgins. Use accumulated picks to fill out other holes on the roster and add a cap controlled young wide receiver.

And a new QB since Burrow seems to have made it clear what he wants & expects.

This is a franchise who aren't that far removed from having a 7 year starter (Palmer) willing to retire rather than play for them again. Pretty much everyone writing about the Bengals seems to feel like keeping Burrow happy was primary for them. Right or wrong, I don't think they were willing to risk having to tear the offense down and start over.

edit to add: Let's remember here, Burrow re-signed back in Sept 2023. We don't know what promises were made to get him to agree to that deal.

The Bengals tried to set things up so that Higgins could be traded, but Iosivas isn't more than a #3 and Jermaine Burton is a complete disaster. They risked having a receiver room where Iosivas was #2 and Charlie Jones was #3 with the rest filled with names like Mitchell Tinsley and Cole Burgess.

They have the same issue on the D-line. In theory Ossai, Murphy, Johnson, Jenkins, and Jackson should be cover for losing aging vets like Hendrickson and Reader. In practice, though, none of the draft picks have shown as even average players yet.

This, plus the Bengals need to warm up to the "sell your future" mentality that's kinda required if you have top-tier talent at premier slots like they do. Organizationally, they have been unwilling to borrow against the cap of 2-4 years out, and that leaves them playing with only 85c on the dollar to the teams who are all in right now.

That said, I'm digging it for fantasy/DFS purposes.

Drafting Dart at 9 is the kind of move you make if you want to fast-track becoming the Jets or Browns.

Well, everyone is going to point to last year, right? When the conventional wisdom was Nix and Penix were the guys who were going to be around late 1st or into day two, and might prove to be interesting enough for a team with a bit of an itch at QB.

Dart is seemingly that guy this year (unless he's McCarthy, I suppose). And the way we now think about Nix in particular doesn't make this feel like a terrible idea.

Where you are at QB basically defines what stage your team is in, in the modern NFL. It' really hard to criticize teams for saying "we can find a tackle/edge/corner somewhere, but we won't get another chance to take a shot on this QB."