2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

That time of year again, the main prep races are behind us, and the field is shaping up. Interestingly, there's no heavy favorite in the future betting - right now the Dubai winner MENDELSSOHN and west coaster JUSTIFY are more or less the shortest prices, but at around 5-1 each.

Here are BRIS past performances, sorted by "points" used to determine who gets an entry.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf

[QuikSand]

(Some notes below, that I just dashed off to some friends)

The best prep race by anyone was from JUSTIFY in the Santa Anita, who held off a very solid contender in BOLT D’ORO winning wire to wire, and putting up a monster speed figure 114. I am wary of front runners in the Derby, but he looks sensational. That same exacta hitting at Churchill, in basically the same fashion, would not be a shock to me, or anyone who believes in speed figures.

MENDELSSOHN is the Dubai winner (bred in KY, of course, but bought up and trained in GB/Ireland, he is NOT owned by Sheikh Mohammad or others from the usual Dubai cabal) – won the UAE Derby for run on the front, too. He also looks very talented, to me. Hard to know what the quality of that field was, though. An easy glide on the lead and winning by open lengths always makes a horse look great – but that’s a much easier path than he or anyone is likely to get at CD. He’s the shortest odds right now in the future betting at around 4-1, with JUSTIFY at 5-1 behind him.

So, the front end of the Derby race looks crowded if all the eligibles come – NOBLE INDY, FLAMEAWAY, PROMISES FULFILLED, MAGNUM MOON, and QUIP are all pretty early of foot, and would prefer to be toward the front. I don’t think JUSTIFY can likely rate (stay back on purpose) but I think MENDELSSOHN could.

I am trying to figure out the Wood, where ENTICED doesn’t really have any excuse. He might be the talented, accomplished horse in this field who goes off at too-high odds. VINO ROSSO did look him right in the eye and beat him, though.

GOOD MAGIC won the Blue Grass from an outside post, had to handle traffic, that was solid, too. But look at those speed figures – JUSTIFY 114, BOLT D’ORO 110, VINO ROSSO 102, ENTICED 99, GOOD MAGIC 98. If you buy those numbers as valid, then these horses aren’t in the same class – the west coasters were by far the best.

[weegeebored]

This should be an interesting KD. I think the speed figs are important -- I'm not going to back "slow" horses in the top spot -- but with 3 year olds it will be more about projecting a new top; a new top going 10f.

The Derby is really the only time I get heavy into the verticals as I think that there is money to be made there. The trend of the last five(?) favorites winning is not a good one for me, but I think (hope?) that this year's race will be more of a wide open affair.

QS -- I agree with you about Justify's running style. I also don't like that he is lightly-raced, although that is an old-school factor and horse racing has definitely changed over the last six or seven years. Did you leave Audible out on purpose? I know the haters were all over Catholic Boy because of all the front speed in the Florida Derby. To me, Audible looks like the quintessential Al Davis horse -- "Just win, baby".

I am looking forward to more discussion. Only 21 days left.

[murrayyyyy]

Aren't we suppose to kill off Good Magic automatically for winning the 2 yar old crown?

[weegeebored]

Since 2007 there's been KD winners Street Sense and Nyquist who were 2yo champs. With today's racing I am not sure if any of the old axioms apply anymore.

[QuikSand]

Yeah, I have pretty much tossed out all the guideposts I believed in 10-15 years ago. Dual qualifiers used to be such an angle, now, whatever. Just give us some brilliance and maybe a horse that has actually seen a crowded field.

Nothing sly meant by excluding AUDIBLE, just ran out of patience. I guess he's a logical too.

I would like to find a horse who actually wants to run behind a pace, who has the breeding for distance, to fit into the picture here. Not saying he's not out there, just saying I haven't found anything to love yet.

[QuikSand]

If I get a decent price on ENTICED, I will be, well, enticed. Running style is a fit, has a win over the CD surface, and bloodlines look fine to me. If he's something like the 5th-7th choice, and maybe around 9 or 12, that's probably a guy I'm going to use a lot.

[weegeebored]

Providing a link to the TimeformUS figs for the KD (and KO) preps. They are arguably the best in the business. I used them when the creator had his own site. TFUS liked them so much they hired him to create the numbers.

Prep race figs (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128748&page=11)

[murrayyyyy]

Lazy part of me wants to just tri-box the four Pletcher horses and be done with it.

[QuikSand]

So, this sportsbook seems to be a decent guess at the actual off odds (more so than the stuff posted earlier in this thread), so I'm taking this as a better foundation to think about value.

Odds to win 2018 Kentucky Derby (5/5/18) - per Sportsbook.ag

Justify 5/2
Bolt D'oro 4/1
Magnum Moon 4/1
Mendelssohn 4/1
Audible 6/1
Good Magic 6/1
My Boy Jack 6/1
Quip 15/1
Vino Rosso 18/1
Enticed 20/1
Solomini 20/1
Flameaway 25/1
Instilled Regard 25/1
Noble Indy 25/1
Hofburg 30/1
Lone Sailor 40/1
Promises Fulfilled 40/1
Bravazo 45/1
Firenze Fire 50/1
Gronkowski 75/1
Runaway Ghost 75/1
Snapper Sinclair 100/1
Combatant 125/1
Restoring Hope 125/1
Blended Citizen 150/1
Reride 150/1

Speed figures are surely driving the interest in the top two, and I think that's pretty fair. If JUSTIFY were really going off at 5-1, I think I would have to own some of that, he might just be really good. And BOLT might also be really good. Those two as a chalky exacta... I can still see it.

MY BOY JACK is getting all the "pick up the pieces" love, but 6-1 seems just silly to me. ENTICED seems like the better value play there, to me. I don't know we'll get 20-1 on 5/5, but anywhere near there and I will put down something on him.

[QuikSand]

Oh, and the power of "getting beaten in your last race" is underestimated here in terms of what the actual betting public will do. BOLT D'ORO could be the value play from among the top handful here, he's probably the best candidate to go off at a surprisingly good number like 9-1 just because he's "proven" that he can't beat JUSTIFY. (Real Quiet and Indian Charlie, anyone?)

[murrayyyyy]

My Boy Jack is the one who loves to stay 20 off the pace and then comes back? I can't see him doing that in a big field.

Someone probably needs to talk me off Vino Rosso as he's the one I've fallen in love with watching races this week.

[QuikSand]

I historically tend to swoon over the solid grinders (like VINO ROSSO), and end up being disappointed when they lack the real opportunity to get there at CD. I'll likely stay away.

[TCY Junkie]

I usually bet small on derby day as I like to bet on horses I won on recently to win the derby. At least I realize this. Haha. This year haven't been to races nearly as often but after looking at it all i would take bolt with the jockey change.

[QuikSand]

Eligible to improve and showing signs of it: HOFBURG

[weegeebored]

I usually bet small on derby day as I like to bet on horses I won on recently to win the derby. At least I realize this. Haha. This year haven't been to races nearly as often but after looking at it all i would take bolt with the jockey change.I don't any serious handicapping until the day before but jockeys don't really mean much to me. Any jock can get into trouble in a race with 20 3yo horses. Unless the rider is awful (unlikely in the KD) then I think it's more important to find a top horse that is the least likely to get into trouble. If the jockey has ridden the horse before I certainly consider that a plus, but I might use that angle only as a tie breaker.

I'm not going to use a deep closer for the top spot. I think in this year's Derby there will be at least one of those clunking into the 3rd and 4th spots. I also think one of the top horses will clunk backwards into one of those spots as well.

[QuikSand]

Did you leave Audible out on purpose? I know the haters were all over Catholic Boy because of all the front speed in the Florida Derby. To me, Audible looks like the quintessential Al Davis horse -- "Just win, baby".

Eligible to improve and showing signs of it: HOFBURG

Rewatched the Florida Derby three times this morning. Predictable hot pace, set up perfectly for AUDIBLE, who was totally untroubled and ran his race just fine - worst he had was an easy three-path on the turn. Nothing to worry about. Dream trip. To me, that's a mild demerit - we think that's really unlikely on 5/5.

HOFBURG ran from farther back, was also basically untroubled but did have to run a bit wider, his "sheets" number might look flattering. Now, it's hard to make a case that he's -better- than the winner there, but it's not a crazy stretch to argue he's a better value if he goes off way down the list. The finish of that race is going to make the cut as "good enough" to project them forward, HOFBURG is a textbook "still improving" candidate, his trainer is very capable (even if not a 3yo specialist), and I can't fault the Tapit bloodline at all.

If HOFBURG stays way up there in the 20+ range, I think he will figure all over my tickets.

[QuikSand]

In this thread, and likely elsewhere, I will heretofore reference my latest crush as 2018BELMONTWINNERHOFBURG to leave no doubt.

[weegeebored]

Yes, the pace set up for Audible but also for Hofburg. I don't like the lack of foundation for Hofburg, and his first two races had gate/start problems. Hofburg might be one of those "clunk up" horses underneath for me. He's bred to go long -- so that's plus -- but I worry more about him not having much tactical speed. He might be a better horse in the Belmont.

[weegeebored]

Gronkowski and Quip out; Combatant and Instilled Regard in.

[QuikSand]

I think QUIP was a fraud, but losing GRONKOWSKI hurts, even if only he would likely have attracted some bruh money on Derby day.

[murrayyyyy]

Three Pletcher horses 16 and out. I really like Bolt's post position.

1. Firenze Fire
Trainer: Jason Servis Jockey: Paco Lopez Odds: 50-1

2. Free Drop Billy
Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Robby Albarado Odds: 30-1

3. Promises Fulfilled
Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie Odds: 30-1

4. Flameaway
Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano Odds: 30-1

5. Audible
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 8-1

6. Good Magic
Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz Odds: 12-1

7. Justify
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith Odds: 3-1

8. Lone Sailor
Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: James Graham Odds: 50-1

9. Hofburg
Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Odds: 20-1

10. My Boy Jack
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Odds: 20-1

11. Bolt d’Orb
Trainer: Mick Ruiz Jockey: Victor Espinoza Odds: 8-1

12. Enticed
Trainer: Kieran McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado Odds: 30-1

13. Bravazo
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Luis Contreras Odds: 50-1

14. Mendelssohn
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Odds: 5-1

15. Instilled Regard
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Odds: 50-1

16. Magnum Moon
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Luis Saez Odds: 6-1

17. Solomini
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Flavien Prat Odds: 30-1

18. Vino Rosso
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez Odds: 12-1

19. Noble Indy
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Florent Geroux Odds: 30-1

20. Combatant
Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Odds: 50-1

Also Eligible: Blended Citizen
Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Kyle Frey Odds: 50-1

[QuikSand]

Snap pace response: the 3 and 4 get great post positions to take command early, and set the pace. 3 likely gets the rail. JUSTIFY at 7 and MENDELSSOHN at 14 should be up there, with 13 BRAVAZO maybe in the way of the 14 a bit.

[QuikSand]

There are always a million angles -- I always read up on this one. Flat time for the horse's last race, just isolating his own last three furlongs. <38s good, >39s bad, understanding there's some wiggle room involved.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2018-2018-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finished

[QuikSand]

Interesting analysis with a little color on each entry

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2018-2018-kentucky-derby-cheat-sheet

[weegeebored]

A tidbit I garnered from another site: In the last 14 years, every horse that finished in the money in the Wood Memorial did not finish in the money in the Derby -- 0-25. Enticed, Vino Rosso this year’s Wood horses

As far as post draws, they won't affect my picks one way or another. As we can't reliably predict the start or 20 horses' trips I am not going to worry if there are posts that are deemed better than others. The horse is either good enough to win or he's not. Besides, I'm playing my usual tri part-wheel, so I don't need to pick one horse to win.

[Tasan]

Its funny, I don't come on here much, but I got the itch to find a horse racing sim, and here's good ole Quik posting about real live horse racing. Too bad it doesn't look like there are many good sims out there anymore.

[weegeebored]

I can't speak for any of the online sims but Starters Orders 6 isn't bad. There's a pretty good mod called StartIt that American-izes (Is that a word?) the game. I started to work on a sim a few years ago but lost my lead programmer. I don't have the coding skills to pull off any kind of graphic stuff. I know that path12 and I think QS showed some interest, but it's really a niche program in a niche market. It's hard to justify the time/cost to program something like that. But I never say never.

[QuikSand]

The best racing game I ever played was The Racing Breed. I still have the files, but not the disc, and it won't start without the disc in a drive, ugh. It was flawed, but the best of the lot I have played.

[QuikSand]

I'm having a devil of a time with this field. Still considering ENTICED more than I think is warranted. Have watched him get flat out beat by VINO ROSSO maybe six times and each time I expect him to win.

[murrayyyyy]

Not a fun ticket but thinking of doing 5 tri box, justify, then 5,16,11,19,10 for both unders.

The more I watch I just can't find a reason that Justify doesn't win.

[weegeebored]

The best racing game I ever played was The Racing Breed. I still have the files, but not the disc, and it won't start without the disc in a drive, ugh. It was flawed, but the best of the lot I have played.Yeah I looked for a copy and it's almost like the game never existed. I just wanted to see it because I know that the horse racing fans here liked it a lot, even with its flaws. I should have taken path12 up on his offer but that's neither here nor there now.

Anyway...with the winning trend currently at 5, I won't make the mistake of leaving the favorite off the top of my ticket as in past years. I have cost myself a couple of trifectas that way. But with 20 horses, and almost half of them legit contenders, Justify is no lock. My gut is telling me this is an Animal Kingdom kind of year.

[weegeebored]

I've been thinking more and more about playing against Justify. There's the Apollo curse; he's broken slowly in 2 of 3 starts; he's been in small fields; when he wasn't on the lead (his 2nd race) he beat Shivermetimbers -- who? He's not going to get the lead in the Derby. (And if he is "sent" for it he will be gassed by the pace duel.) If he breaks well he will probably sit 2nd which is good. If he doesn't he might have to be hustled up to sit third. I don't believe he will have enough energy left for a good stretch run as I predict a fast pace as most KDs are.

If he's a superhorse and beats me @5-2 or 3-1 so be it. I can't leave him entirely off my tri ticket, but I would like to. The only horse I'm sure will be on the top of my ticket is Audible. A very solid horse that I believe has more to show, and my gut tells me to play him. And I am not normally a "hunch" player.

[Arles]

The long shots I like are Combatant and Lone Sailor - I'll probably also throw My Boy Jack into some Exactas. I think Justify is a clear favorite and will be tough to beat. I think the best chance would be Bolt (probably do a WPS with him).

I'm leaning towards $1 exactas with my fav 8-9 horses not named Justify / Justify. Then I'll do a $2 exacta with Justify and the 8-9 in second. I really can't see Justify not being 1st or 2nd. I'll probably be leaving out Mendelsson from my bets, so be sure to grab him as that means he will be in the money :D

[QuikSand]

I'm part of a group, we have around $3K for syndicate betting.

Our centerpiece bet is typically a six horse box to try to hit the triple and super, this year we decided on:

5 AUDIBLE
7 JUSTIFY
11 BOLT D'ORO
16 MAGNUM MOON
17 SOLOMINI
18 VINO ROSSO

Not all my doing, but I had some say in it.

The bet I love (and that's do-able with that much money to F around with) is the all-bomber bet, trying to crush the exotics:

9 HOFBURG 24-1
12 ENTICED 52-1
17 SOLOMINI 68-1
18 VINO ROSSO 18-1
19 NOBLE INDY 49-1
20 COMBATANT 79-1

I know, it's much more comforting to use the logicals mixed in with your couple of hunch horses. But the idea here is...hey, with that much scratch to spread around, we can afford to throw this group into the exacta and triple, and who knows? Any two of them atop the board would just light up the toteboard. Put it up 12-17 (an outcome I actually like a bit) and that's some serious money.

[QuikSand]

...just typing that, I had to go and put down a complex $25 exacta just for myself. 7 9 11 12 17 / 9 11 12 17 19

[QuikSand]

So, my own thinking:

Ive basically talked myself off JUSTIFY and onto BOLT D'ORO as my "top pick" irrespective of odds. I will still use the 7, and a little 14, but feel neither is giving real value here in this big field with too many question marks.

I see MAGNUM MOON as a legit threat, and with his odds escalating to 13 at last check, I'll be using him too. I am basically fading AUDIBLE and GOOD MAGIC, my conviction stronger with the latter.

My picks I'm using, in some sort of order:

11 BOLT D'ORO 8-1

7 JUSTIFY 7-2
16 MAGNUM MOON 13-1

12 ENTICED 52-1
17 SOLOMINI 66-1
9 HOFBURG 24-1
19 NOBLE INDY 49-1
14 MENDELSSOHN 5-1
18 VINO ROSSO 18-1

[CleBrownsfan]

My father in law really digs into this race every year and he’s telling me the 10 (My Boy Jack) horse is his bet - since track will be a complete mess with rain in the forecast all day.

[QuikSand]

MY BOY JACK is getting all the "pick up the pieces" love, but 6-1 seems just silly to me. ENTICED seems like the better value play there, to me. I don't know we'll get 20-1 on 5/5, but anywhere near there and I will put down something on him.

Heh, funny looking back at lead-up future odds. At the moment, we see JACK hammered down to 5-1, and ENTICED basically disregarded and in the 50s.

[QuikSand]

My father in law really digs into this race every year and he’s telling me the 10 (My Boy Jack) horse is his bet - since track will be a complete mess with rain in the forecast all day.

The off-track angle is always alluring, and JACK has a win over a sloppy track earlier this year. If he were still "properly" being bet in even the 12-1 range, I might be tempted to use him. But down well into single digits, I just don't like it. There are underlying factors that work against him - that running style, longer distance, and honestly breeding doesn't support the apparent love for the mud. I'll stick with BOLT as the guy who benefits from an off track if that comes to pass, and he was more or less my pick anyhow.

[weegeebored]

Yeah the weather is really going to change things. If the track is one way or the other (sloppy or fast) I'll play, but otherwise I will pass this year. I am not going to throw my money away on a drying out track. You might as well pick numbers out of a hat then. And they will probably seal the track and god knows what that will do. If Calvin Borel was riding he would have the track figured out and I would include his mount on my ticket for sure.

Looking at the PPs, none of the horses that have run on a off track were hurt by it -- that's no help. So the big question is, who might it help? Unfortunately, that's a big list. According to my stats, the horse best bred for off tracks is...gulp...Bravazo. He was an auto-toss before and I don't think he has a chance to win, but with that breeding he certainly could clunk up 3rd or 4th. Crap.

[murrayyyyy]

traded out 18 for 19 on my ticket but staying the same.

[Arles]

I did an exacta with 7 - (2,5,6,8,9,10,11,18). Then I did one with (2,5,6,8,9,10,11,18) - 7. I did a WPS bet on 11 and threw some long shot P-S bets on 8,10 and 20.

[weegeebored]

Looks like the track will stay sloppy. I'm going to play a trifecta part wheel: 5,6,11 / 5,6,7,9,11,18 / 4,5,6,7,9,11,12,18 -- $90 per unit

[cartman]

I&rsquo;m going with Vino Rosso and Good Magic

[murrayyyyy]

I still hate the 6...

[CleBrownsfan]

Seemed like a pretty easy win for the 7

[weegeebored]

Anyway...with the winning trend currently at 5, I won't make the mistake of leaving the favorite off the top of my ticket as in past years. I have cost myself a couple of trifectas that way.Sometimes I just need to take my own advice. I always shoot for a score in the Derby, but it has cost me three tris in the last six years. :banghead:
Congrats to Justify and his connections, and the bettors who played him.

[QuikSand]

Yup, hats off to JUSTIFY, nice effort and made it look fairly easy. My two "tosses" from the logicals basically battled it out for next-best, while BOLT seems to have no excuse at all, just gave it up. Preakness ought to be a romp, he will presumably be the shortest odds in a pretty long time... Big Brown? FuPeg? And I already have my Belmont tickets purchased in advance. Giddyup.

[QuikSand]

So, off the top of my head, I'd say the chances of various options ahead for JUSTIFY in the remainder of the Triple Crown look like this:

5-2 wins Preakness, wins Belmont, Triple Crown
5-2 wins Preakness, loses Belmont
6-1 loses Preakness, does not enter Belmont
30-1 loses Preakness, returns to win Belmont
50-1 loses Preakness, returns to lose Belmont
50-1 wins Preakness, withdraws from Belmont for some reason
80-1 withdraws from both races for some reason
200-1 withdraws from Preakness, returns to win Belmont
200-1 withdraws from Preakness, returns to lose Belmont

So, implied in there, I think he's 80-85% likely to win the Preakness. That might be a big generous, to be honest, but if I were trying to set odds as if I were going to book bets, that's roughly where I'd want to put it.

Assuming a Preakness win, him at roughly even money against a typical Belmont field sounds about right to me. Tote won't give you that, presumably. But as lightly raced as he is, I don't feel he's any kind of lock to outlast a variety of fresh shooters and anyone-with-Tapit-blood who will be out there.

[weegeebored]

Justify won't be Big Brown low, but probably like California Chrome -- right around 3-5 I would think. I suppose it depends on who is going to run in the Preakness. If it's a bunch of ALW types then expect 1-9 on Justify. I have a bad feeling that if Justify wins the Preakness he won't win the Belmont. Wasn't it Smarty Jones who got unduly pressed by two horses in his bid for the TC? IIRC, Jerry Bailey took a lot of heat moving up and pressing SJ, and something like that could happen again. Or maybe because of American Pharoah, jockeys won't try to compromise Justify's chance should he get it.

[JAG]

Might be of interest to people here if you haven't already seen it:

The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code)

[weegeebored]

Rumor has it that Justify has a rear left leg issue, maybe a cracked heel, a bruised hoof, maybe pastern dermatitis (scratches), something. I hope it's nothing serious.

[digamma]

4/11 for Justify this morning.

[QuikSand]

1. Quip (12-1)
2. Lone Sailor (15-1)
3. Sporting Chance (30-1)
4. Diamond King (30-1)
5. Good Magic (3-1)
6. Tenfold (20-1)
7. Justify (1-2)
8. Bravazo (20-1)

I have not seen PP data yet, but both QUIP and BRAVAZO are credible front-running types, so JUSTIFY should not just get to romp out to a super easy lead. I think both of those two are modest overlays at the morning line odds above. 3-1 doesn't feel like it's rich enough for GOOD MAGIC, to me.

[QuikSand]

JUSTIFY pounded down to 1-5. GOOD MAGIC at 5. Sloppy as hell.

[QuikSand]

My last bet in was “what if Quip sucks?” and I loaded up 5,6,8 behind Justify and hit the triple for two bucks. Made the day. Not my main thinking - Good Magic ran the race I expected Quip to, but got out run.

At Belmont...maybe Justify will be something like 7-5 I’d guess, not a huge short price after today.

[QuikSand]

So, JUSTIFY is 4-5 in the morning line, and your previously announced 2018BELMONTWINNERHOFBURG is already soaking up tons of buzz and is in the morning line at ... 9-2?!?!?

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Belmont_Stakes_2018_current_odds_Justify_the_favorite_123

So, where's the value?

Breeding angles suggest HOFBURG looks great, but also probably support:

12-1 TENFOLD
8-1 VINO ROSSO
30-1 NOBLE INDY
(I don't know what to make of Union Rags as a sire here, he won the Belmont, but doesn't seem like a strong distance influence... but he's there for 30-1 FREE DROP BILLY... similarly for Giant's Causeway and 30-1 RESTORING HOPE and underneath on FDB)

The field is not poorly bred for distance. This field sets up a lot like last year, where there was one bloodline standout in Tapwrit, and several others who looked "okay" for the long route. Wiseguys pounded Tapwrit down to something like 5-1 IIRC, and eroded away most of his value. This year is the same, except for the presence of a heavy hitter TC possible in the mix, whose breeding does not really support him wanting to run this long.

If JUSTIFY stays around even money, and nobody else moves a lot, I could see my centerpiece bet looking something like:

4 HOFBURG
7 TENFOLD
8 VINO ROSSO
---
478
1 JUSTIFY
3 BRAVAZO
---
1345789

That's a $60 ticket for the triple, and it's worth nothing at all if Justify wins. Hrm.

[Shkspr]

You know, I can't say I've followed horse racing at all since I stopped being able to read Andrew Beyer in the Post every day, but I enjoy reading these yearly threads on the Triple Crown. However, my lack of familiarity with the field led me for one brief shining moment to believe that 2018BELMONTWINNERHOFBURG was actually the horse's name, and now I'm terribly disappointed to discover that he's just known as "Hofburg".

[QuikSand]

Fairly boring race to watch...after a half mile, with nobody pushing Justify at all, and the early pace being pretty unhurried, we all said "well, he's got no excuse." Pretty similar to the same conversation taking place with A Pharoah.

FWIW, the crowds at Belmont were not brimming the way they historically have been for a possible TC. Lovely day, racing was fine, but there was not a huge extra layer of people present to "see history." More evidence fo the overall decline in racing.

Hats off to Justify, Baffert, Smith, and the plethora of corporate owners. Big talent.

[digamma]

I also went anti-Justify, not all that different from the above suggestion. Maybe not my SMRTest decision.

Oh well, I tried to explain to my 8 year old who eats up the triple crown races how spoiled he was to see two TC winners. That part is at least fun to watch.

[JPhillips]

Fairly boring race to watch...after a half mile, with nobody pushing Justify at all, and the early pace being pretty unhurried, we all said "well, he's got no excuse." Pretty similar to the same conversation taking place with A Pharoah.

FWIW, the crowds at Belmont were not brimming the way they historically have been for a possible TC. Lovely day, racing was fine, but there was not a huge extra layer of people present to "see history." More evidence fo the overall decline in racing.

Hats off to Justify, Baffert, Smith, and the plethora of corporate owners. Big talent.

I'm a TC only kind of casual race watcher, but this was indeed the most boring TC I can imagine. Justify was just good enough so that there wasn't much doubt he'd win, but not good enough to run away from the field in a, "I can't believe I'm seeing this," way.

[QuikSand]

With JUSTIFY retired to stud (rats) the Travers has less sizzle than it might, were he running (which never seemed likely to me, anyhow).

Anyway, here's a preview:

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2018-2018-travers-stakes-cheat-sheet