Advice for my league match?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm currently atop my division V series, two points off perfection. I don't think I can afford to lose more than two more if I hope to autopromote.

Here's what the series standings look like:
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width=350 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right>1.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Brays Bayou FC (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70854)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>10</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>40</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>-</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>6</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>28</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#000000 colSpan=7 height=1></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right>2.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>ole (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70367)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>10</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>42</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>-</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>16</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>24</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right>3.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Flashotcite (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70853)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>10</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>32</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>-</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>5</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>23</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right>4.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>vick tyme's (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70856)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>10</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>21</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>-</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>28</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>15</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#000000 colSpan=7 height=1></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=right>5.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>New Bremen Chickens (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70527)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>10</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>12</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>-</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>16</TD><TD vAlign=top align=middle>11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I play away at Flashotcite, home with New Bremen Chickens, away at a gimme, then close with ole at home. Flashotcite is actually the more dangerous side, being the team that took points out of me: before last week, they were pulling low- to mid-80's ratings, and they sit in third place by virtue of multiple unfortunate results (the draw with me, where I was outrated by ten points, a loss to ole, and a draw with NBC).

Here are the ratings from our draw in week 4:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Brays Bayou FC (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70854)
Player rating and Team formation (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/matchLineup.asp?matchID=17283163&teamID=70854)
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Team Attitude:</TD><TD vAlign=top>Match of the Season</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Tactic:</TD><TD vAlign=top>Normal</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Tactic skill:</TD><TD vAlign=top>(Unlimited)</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Midfield:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Right Side Defence:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Central Defence:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Left Side Defence:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Right Side Attack:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Central Attack:</TD><TD vAlign=top>solid</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Left Side Attack:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Flashotcite (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/teamDetails.asp?teamID=70853)
Player rating and Team formation (http://www9.hattrick.org/common/matchLineup.asp?matchID=17283163&teamID=70853)
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Team Attitude:</TD><TD vAlign=top>(Hidden)</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Tactic:</TD><TD vAlign=top>Normal</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Tactic skill:</TD><TD vAlign=top>(Unlimited)</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Midfield:</TD><TD vAlign=top>passable</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Right Side Defence:</TD><TD vAlign=top>supernatural</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Central Defence:</TD><TD vAlign=top>world class</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Left Side Defence:</TD><TD vAlign=top>world class</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Right Side Attack:</TD><TD vAlign=top>solid</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Central Attack:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>Left Side Attack:</TD><TD vAlign=top>excellent</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Flashotcite is a keeper trainer, normally they play a 3-5-2 but last week they tried out a 3-4-3/AIM formation; I'm not expecting to see that, but if I do, it plays to my strengths. They actually haven't been pulling defense ratings that high of late, probably because they're playing a wingback offensive.

Since playing me, they've added a middie for $1.6 MM at 3.5* and a midde for $4.6 MM at 4.5*. A couple of weeks ago, at home against ole, they pulled an excellent midfield, which I hit for the first and only time when I played them in week 4.

I haven't added anything yet, but I'm currently scouring the transfer markets for a middie, with a budget of about $1.6 MM; I'm looking outstanding right now but may back off to formidable (still a two-level jump). My team spirit is content, at least as good as the last time I played them, and my form is definitely better.

Do I spend my TS bank by MOTSing this match, then risk an upset against NBC (a vanilla 4-4-2 squad that usually posts mid- to high-50's and almost always keeps matches close)? Or play normal, drop a little bit of my TS, and build it back up for the showdown with ole?

Any other thoughts?

Thanks in advance... and I hope my opponent isn't reading this... :eek:

[BreizhManu]

I'd say normal against flashotcite

[finkenst]

since you have a 4point cushion, i would normal Flashotcite, normal/pic NBC, pic the gimme and mots Ole.

[RPI-Fan]

Yep, with the 4-point cushion you could even consider PICing, but do no more than Normal for certain - you kind of have to conceed this game to prepare for the stretch run.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Fair enough... I'm almost more worried about whether I wind up in a qualifier than I am about winning the series, at this point.

[BishopMVP]

Fair enough... I'm almost more worried about whether I wind up in a qualifier than I am about winning the series, at this point.First things first. And from my experience, a qualifier is preferable to autopromotion. It gives you an extra week of training/revenue and helps prevent you from going into one of the 5-10 series you are unprepared for.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'll take my chances on my destination if I can assure promotion. I think I'm fortunate to be in first (at best, I think I have the second-best team in the series), and I'd like to seize the moment if I can. My team is coming along pretty well, and if I go up, I'll be able to make a sale to finance improvements that would be necessary to be competitive.

[Mr. Wednesday]

My opponent pulled a 99 NSI (!!! :eek: ) behind an outstanding midfield. I played normal and with a WTM under the (apparently mistaken) impression that I had a shot at winning the midfield. I should have PICed, played it straight up, and pressed. Oh well... I just hope I can still promote out of here, I don't think I'll be able to win the series next season.