Monday the new era of the Tonight Show, and I am excited as can be. I usually never watched Leno but would stay up for Conan and while I know a lot of people feel Conan will struggle with Leno fans switching over, I do think he is going to usher in a new era of fans that never watched Leno's show and I doubt the ratings suffer that drastically. Perhaps I am just naive but I think it'll work out unless he tried to be something he isn't.

I saw on Leno's last show the skit he did with the Focus Group and though it was only a several second clip it was a clever idea and those kind of skits will be a nice addition to things that a little more bizarre.

Anyway, we'll see soon enough.

I don't think it's going to be as big of a deal in this day of age when it comes to media. With DVR and the internet, I think it gets over-hyped.

Love the ending of Leno last night. While I find Conan and Craig funnier, Jay is a classy guy.

Love the change NBC is making.

I liked Leno and really liked Conan however could rarely stay up to watch him.

Now I get both, w00t!

dola:
The only problem I have with this is Law & Order SVU

Will moving the show up an hour affect the content?

Love the ending of Leno last night. While I find Conan and Craig funnier, Jay is a classy guy.

I don't know if anyone has ever accused Jay of being anything but classy and is supposed to be genuinely nice. I hope he does well at 10/9

SI

dola:
The only problem I have with this is Law & Order SVU

Will moving the show up an hour affect the content?

It's being replaced by Law & Order: Lost Pet Unit

Law & Order: Elevator Inspectors Unit

"You see, the 5 doesn't light up."
"I think I'm gonna be sick."

SVU is on Wed. at 9 PM maybe starting this fall. NBC's schedule has been released so you can find it online.

I don't know if anyone has ever accused Jay of being anything but classy and is supposed to be genuinely nice. I hope he does well at 10/9

SI

Maybe, but let's not forget he got where he is because of one of the meanest people in show biz history.

Andy Richter is back and Conan is so much better than Jay Leno. It's been spectacular so far and we still have Will Ferrell and Pearl Jam to go. I think if anyone will struggle it will be Leno in his new show. I predict that will fail miserably and Conan will enjoy a longer tenure on The Tonight Show than Leno.

Andy Richter is back and Conan is so much better than Jay Leno. It's been spectacular so far and we still have Will Ferrell and Pearl Jam to go. I think if anyone will struggle it will be Leno in his new show. I predict that will fail miserably and Conan will enjoy a longer tenure on The Tonight Show than Leno.

I think I agree. The Tonight Show timeslot, after the late news on all those NBC affiliates is really a can't lose slot. Even if O'Brien doesn't match Leno's ratings long-term, he'll have a younger, more advertiser-friendly audience, and will be a success there.

Maybe, but let's not forget he got where he is because of one of the meanest people in show biz history.
Exactly. I have always had a hard time reconciling the supposed "classy" and "friendly" Jay Leno with the guy who let Helen Kushnick treat everyone like crap so he could get what he wanted and hid in a closet eavesdropping spying on NBC executives during the Leno/Letterman debate.

Bottom line, Leno and Letterman were friends. When Leno couldn't get on The Tonight Show in the '80s, Dave was the one who booked him on his show more than any other guests. Leno knew Letterman wanted the Tonight Show and knew that Letterman paid his dues at 12:30. Leno and Kushnick intentionally stabbed Letterman and Garry Shandling in the back to get the Tonight Show and there are a lot of people who don't buy his "nice guy" act.

I think if anyone will struggle it will be Leno in his new show.

There's a ton more ratings pressure/expectations in a primetime slot. I think there's no way that show succeeds.

Fell asleep after Ferrell so I'll catch up on DVR after work, but loved last night, especially the opening.

There's a ton more ratings pressure/expectations in a primetime slot. I think there's no way that show succeeds.


I guess it depends on what you mean by "succeeds".

If you mean draw more ratings than shows in previous years such as Law and Order SVU or the older days of ER, then there is no way it draws that much ratingswise.

If you mean make more money for the network, then I guess that is still up in the air. I am sure they won't make as much money advertising for the show since it won't compete ratingswise, but since the show is so much cheaper to air, it could end up being a bigger profit for NBC.


Since I don't ever watch night time talk shows, I won't be tuning in to Jay Leno either, but I can see where NBC is taking this gamble. I hope it doesn't work out though since I'd like additional 10pm tv watching options once again.

One thing...Conan and Andy are gonna need to get their timing back pretty quick or they're not going to let Andy speak during the monologue anymore unless spoken to. There were a few times last night where they ended up speaking at the same time. Just a kink of course...

The initial battle for feel is going to be interesting. You could tell Conan wanted to hold back a little at points but some times he just threw that all aside and just made it like the 11:30/12:30 Late Night. I think unless ratings suffer and he is given notes or whatnot, his impulses will be towards being "unbridled" Conan and throwing caution to the wind.

It's going to take some time for Andy and Conan to get their chemistry back. Andy was laying it on really thick and it felt forced. It's good to see him back and I could easily see him and Conan doing their own version of Carson-McMahon.

It looks like most if not all of the Max Weinberg 7 made the trip as the Tonight Show Band, which is great to see. I'm sure they'll make it into skits soon.

Studio looked great and it was cool to see the intro music was retained but updated a little- not that it was old at all. Just something to remind you that it's the same old song but new.

I liked the running across the country intro- simple and an introduction more than a comedy bit. Frankly, it felt like something Leno would do so that was a nice little touch.

I also liked the Universal Studios tour gag. That seemed like classic Conan material without being too crazy for his new audience with very Conan lines like "You shouldn't cheer every time I suggest we do something illegal" and then proceeding to do whatever anyways. Anyone else thinking "Oprah's audience gets cars and all Conan's gets is their tour at Universal hijacked by him and then something from the 99c store" but then being oddly at peace with it.

A couple of the other short bits and video were a bit more forced and didn't quite work as well for me. The Joe Biden thing was just kindof dumb. Don't get me wrong, Biden gives a lot of material to work with- this particular one just wasn't funny to me. And there was some other short thing that I forget which didn't do anything for me and now I can't even remember what it was.

Will Ferrell's entrance was great. The rest of it was him being a buffoon, thinking he is funnier than he really is- but I'm not a fan and that's my impression of him most of the time. And when did Eddie Vedder suddenly get "rock star old"- no, not old, as there's a distinction between old and rock star old- but with the crappy facial hair, he looks like he's old enough where Pearl Jam should be starting up their post-drug rehab or reunion tours now. And that makes me feel old ;)

All in all, I think he tried to rein himself in last night a little but not very much so I think the new show is pretty much going to be the old show. He'll be shedding a lot of Leno's old audience from the word go but hopefully will replace it with his own and more.

---

I don't really agree with the assertion that he'll have a longer and more successful tenure than Leno, primarily because of his primary audience. It's a younger, more transient audience inherently so you have less stability built in. An older audience will keep watching night after night like clockwork but a younger one will come and go more readily.

Not only that, it's not as if he has a lot more years of attracting a new audience. Conan's 46 now, and a young 46 mind you, but how many "hip" younger viewers is he going to be attracting in 5 or 10 years? So either he's going to have to transition to retaining that same audience that already watches or keep fighting upstream to get a younger audience.

It just feels like that after a few years, it's going to be a constant struggle of trying to keep old viewers and attract newer ones while those become increasingly disparate demographics. That said, if this is a problem 5~10 years down the road and not now then NBC will probably be quite happy with the results. I just don't quite see the long Carson-like or even Leno-like tenure but I still think it could be one that all parties involved are happy with.

The big thing that doesn't take into account is that he can't just have his 12:30 audience at 11:30- he has to grow it- probably doubling it- either by retaining current Leno watches who didn't watch him or by attracting new ones and I've already mentioned the difficulty of each. And that doesn't take into account that there were a lot of Letterman-Conan watchers who are now being forced to choose. Those are going to be the interesting numbers to watch and next week, after that opening week luster wears of, we're going to see what's really happening.

SI

I guess it depends on what you mean by "succeeds".

I mean be competitive in the ratings with other prime time shows.

It may be cheap to produce, but even if its profitable, the bad press surrounding a horribly rated show could be embarassing enough to get this cancelled.

I know you don't watch night time talk shows. Noone does. Thats why there has not been one in network prime time in years. This is going to last less than a year and it will have nothing to do with Leno.

What's really going to hurt is that the Leno experiment will almost make it impossible for them to compete with the other networks in the overall viewership or season 18-49 numbers. Sure, you can turn a profit by going smallball, but at some point the network stops becoming relevant and the affiliates start taking a hit. Will the late night newscasts be happy that their lead-in is a fraction of what it used to be?

I don't know if anyone has ever accused Jay of being anything but classy and is supposed to be genuinely nice. I hope he does well at 10/9

SI

Heh, I have heard anything but those two descriptions said many times. Along with him stealing bits for his show. Personally though, I have always found him annoying and not very funny. Glad Conan has taken over, last nights show was good. I had not watched the Tonight Show in a long time.

Ben likes choc tacos...

Kissing Suzy Kolber » Blog Archive » THE BEN HAS NEW FAVORITE LATE NIGHT HARF HARF SHOW | kissingsuzykolber.com (http://kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com/2009/06/the-ben-has-new-favorite-late-night-harf-harf-show.html)

Heh, I have heard anything but those two descriptions said many times. Along with him stealing bits for his show. Personally though, I have always found him annoying and not very funny. Glad Conan has taken over, last nights show was good. I had not watched the Tonight Show in a long time.

I was young when Leno "stabbed" others in the back. What exactly happen?

What has he been accussed of stealing?

I was young when Leno "stabbed" others in the back. What exactly happen?

What has he been accussed of stealing?

There's a movie called Late Shift that explains all this. Maybe it has a wiki page that gives the basics.

I don't like Leno at all, but I just think he was really successful in his career and made all the right moves. When one does that, the losers usually (or fans of the loser) call it "playing politics" or "back stabbling".

I don't know about the stealing, but Leno didn't need to stab anyone in the back, because he had someone do it for him. His longtime manager Helen Kushnick stabbed countless people in the back, up to and including planting an article about Carson being too old in an attempt to get him to retire. Meanwhile, Leno could continue to play the nice guy act while his manager was being dishonest and deceitful at every turn to get him everything. And he suddenly became outraged by her actions when NBC said they were going to fire him from the Tonight Show if he didn't fire her.

Blowing up the Twitter bird had me laughing hard for at least 30 seconds. And then they beheaded it. That sketch was awesome!

SI

Blowing up the Twitter bird had me laughing hard for at least 30 seconds. And then they beheaded it. That sketch was awesome!

SI

I had tears in my eyes. That was amazing.

Loved the Meteor. Amazing.

There's a movie called Late Shift that explains all this. Maybe it has a wiki page that gives the basics.

I don't like Leno at all, but I just think he was really successful in his career and made all the right moves. When one does that, the losers usually (or fans of the loser) call it "playing politics" or "back stabbling".

Well, I'd be hard pressed to call Letterman a "loser" in the capitalist American sense of the word. I don't doubt that Leno is a shrewd guy, but he definitely fucked over someone who helped make him who he became, which is just awful.

I had tears in my eyes. That was amazing.

Yes. The twitter sketch was beyond belief. I was doubled over. Oh, how I've missed Conan.

Damn it, fell asleep after the monologue last night. Will have to remember to watch it later.

Well, I'd be hard pressed to call Letterman a "loser" in the capitalist American sense of the word. I don't doubt that Leno is a shrewd guy, but he definitely fucked over someone who helped make him who he became, which is just awful.

Yeah, while Letterman didn't get his dream job of The Tonight Show, he probably ended up in a better situation, since he had ownership of the CBS show, which he wouldn't have got at NBC. And while Leno may have won the ratings battle, Letterman certainly made more money for CBS (see: Everybody Loves Raymond). As for NBC, winning the ratings battle was nice, but their market share on late night ended up being a small fraction of what it used to be. If they had picked Letterman instead, there's no way a Leno could have started a successful original franchise on CBS.

Blowing up the Twitter bird had me laughing hard for at least 30 seconds. And then they beheaded it. That sketch was awesome!

SI

I had tears in my eyes. That was amazing.

Yes, that was a classic Conan skit. Great stuff. I missed part of Monday's opening, but I thought he was very smooth tonight and really enjoyed his opening 30 minutes before I fell asleep.

In the Year 2000 :D

err... 3000

SI

3000 was definitely great. I was wondering if they would change that part up, and am glad they still kept it near term as far as what's gonna happen in 991 years.

Also, anyone across America who saw the last episode and is still trying to decide if they like Conan...if they didn't die laughing at the completely improved "he's petting a smaller executive" with Conan shrinking and petting his own head...just give up and go watch a Golden Girls rerun. We don't want you.

I've only been able to catch bits and pieces thus far, but I'm SO glad that I don't have to stay up late or DVR Conan anymore. It's nice to just have him on at a time I can watch it. I've been really happy with what I've seen thus far. He doesn't appear to be changing his schtick too drastically, which is great.

3000 was definitely great. I was wondering if they would change that part up, and am glad they still kept it near term as far as what's gonna happen in 991 years.

Also, anyone across America who saw the last episode and is still trying to decide if they like Conan...if they didn't die laughing at the completely improved "he's petting a smaller executive" with Conan shrinking and petting his own head...just give up and go watch a Golden Girls rerun. We don't want you.

Andy was quick as a whip with the odd visualization on that one. WAY happy to see the duo reunited.. And doing what they always did best..

There has to be a staring contest coming soon.

3000 was definitely great. I was wondering if they would change that part up, and am glad they still kept it near term as far as what's gonna happen in 991 years.

My wife and I were joking about that one- hell, at the rate they did this change, "In the Year 3000" has to be good for at least the next 1050 years ;)

SI

Andy was quick as a whip with the odd visualization on that one. WAY happy to see the duo reunited.. And doing what they always did best..

There has to be a staring contest coming soon.

Agreed- very happy to see them back together.

The thing about the staring contest and also celebrity surveys is that Conan loved to do a couple of "jokes too far" in those that I fear won't play nearly as well at 11:30. You know what I mean- you knew the Michael Jackson is a pedophile or how big of a slut is Paris Hilton jokes were coming at the end and so they had to be completely over the top. I don't think he's going to try to get away with those at first while he's still in "winning people over" mode. Same with the staring contests- sure the early stuff was tame but you start getting to some of the crazy stuff in the background and he might just completely turn some of his new viewers off with "what is this crap" syndrome.

SI

YouTwitFace
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YouTwitFace
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Hysterical.

YouTwitFace
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Was definitely a fan of that joke :D

SI

Yeah, while Letterman didn't get his dream job of The Tonight Show, he probably ended up in a better situation, since he had ownership of the CBS show, which he wouldn't have got at NBC. And while Leno may have won the ratings battle, Letterman certainly made more money for CBS (see: Everybody Loves Raymond). As for NBC, winning the ratings battle was nice, but their market share on late night ended up being a small fraction of what it used to be. If they had picked Letterman instead, there's no way a Leno could have started a successful original franchise on CBS.

Indeed. Very good analysis. NBC can point to winning in the ratings, but if they picked Letterman, it would be a landslide in the ratings. So you really have to evaluate it not Leno v. Letterman in ratings, but Leno v. Letterman against Letterman v. 2nd tier whoever.

The "Chevrolet Scrotum" line had me laughing my ass off. :)
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The "Chevrolet Scrotum" line had me laughing my ass off. :)
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That had everyone laughing their ass off. Even LaBamba couldn't help but smile and he's quite good at keeping a straight face

SI

This is awesome.

Gizmodo - Conan's New Backdrop Sure Looks Familiar… - Conan (http://gizmodo.com/5278719/conans-new-backdrop-sure-looks-familiar)

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/gizmodo/2009/06/seriouslunch_conan.jpg

I was rewatching the 2nd episode earlier and I swear, Conan in the wig with the bitch beltbuckle is one of the best visuals I've ever seen on a show, period.

This is awesome.

Gizmodo - Conan's New Backdrop Sure Looks Familiar… - Conan (http://gizmodo.com/5278719/conans-new-backdrop-sure-looks-familiar)



Awesome. And Mario 3 lives on :D

SI

It sure didn't take long for the reality check to arrive.

Rating's for his shows started at 7.0 then dropped to 5.0, 4.2, 3.8, 3.5, 3.1 and 2.9 over the next six. And last night he lost to Letterman (his first win over Tonight since last October) which is even faster than I expected.

By this time next year, Leno will be getting ready to return to Tonight & Conan will be looking for work (or reassigned).

I didn't know Andy was back. I loved Conan back in the day, then Andy left and I grew tired of Conan quickly. Andy meant more to that show than I had realized.

Going to have to start checking it out.

I am still not sure Conan is in trouble. I mean obviously those numbers aren't good but I feel like he has a more DVR audience then Leno plus he should win the 19-49 demo, or I'd assume anyway and isn't that all advertisers care about?

I am still not sure Conan is in trouble. I mean obviously those numbers aren't good but I feel like he has a more DVR audience then Leno plus he should win the 19-49 demo, or I'd assume anyway and isn't that all advertisers care about?

Depends on the advertiser.

And last night's Atlanta numbers (which are often funky but in this case are proportional to what the nationals looked like) had Letterman beating him even 18-49. And looking at those local numbers briefly as a possible guide, it looks like where Conan may have gotten beat was over 25.

After thinking about it a minute, I have to note here that these are timeslot numbers not timeshifted numbers. What was the finishing time for the NHL last night? It won't change Letterman but could change Conan, although if it does then the loss would be even bigger.

Depends on the advertiser.

And last night's Atlanta numbers (which are often funky but in this case are proportional to what the nationals looked like) had Letterman beating him even 18-49. And looking at those local numbers briefly as a possible guide, it looks like where Conan may have gotten beat was over 25.

After thinking about it a minute, I have to note here that these are timeslot numbers not timeshifted numbers. What was the finishing time for the NHL last night? It won't change Letterman but could change Conan, although if it does then the loss would be even bigger.

I think it started at its normal slot most places, but here in Detroit, Conan didn't start until 12:05.

Something worth mentioning I think (since I noticed that in Atlanta Letterman absolutely slaughtered Conan Men 25-49 while just barely beating him in Women 25-49) is that 1130 puts Conan up against Colbert & the Comedy Central late night block, as well as the early portion of Adult Swim. That might bleed him pretty hard with younger men, enough so that he could eventually struggle to hold Letterman off consistently even in the younger demos.

Conan will be just fine and there's no way he's going to resign by the end of the year because of one night in the summer Dave had Julia Roberts on and beat him. Oh no, pull the plug on Conan! The Tonight Show is finally good again thanks to Conan and he's the best host they've had since Johnny Carson. The focus group he did last night was gold and better than anything Leno ever did.

The focus group he did last night was gold and better than anything Leno ever did.

Not to the available late night audience apparently.

Just as Leno had to learn to do (or matured into) Conan will either find a way to appeal to more people than he ever has -- and in his case that's anyone over 24 years old -- or he won't last long. And I don't see that happening, that's just not what he does nor do I believe he's capable of ever doing it. Time will tell.

Remember, Leno was a pretty iffy choice in the beginning but he lasted long enough to get where he needed to be.

What Conan really has to worry about is the state of NBC. This is a network that is just in complete freefall, run by executives that don't have a fucking clue what they're doing. The Leno primetime experiment is just going to make things worse. Even if it is profitable, the numbers will be way down and drag down the rest of the night, weakening the reach of promos. More people will know who Letterman has on than Conan.

It's pretty similar to the situation that eventually doomed Letterman in the mid-90s. CBS was falling apart. They lost football rights, and several affiliates jumped ship to FOX. NBC was owning primetime. There was basically no need for Letterman to put on a Thursday show.

NBC was extremely patient with Conan in the past, when he was tanking for years at 12:30. Obviously there's more at stake with the Tonight Show, but I think they'll give him a ton of time.

Leno's obviously the only other possibility, and I just don't see them going back that way. Anyone else would tank against Letterman.

It's not Conan's fault that a lot of Americans have a horrible sense of humor.

I don't mind Conan's monologues, but I just can't take the wild gesticulations that invariably follow his jokes a second or two later. The guy can have funny material, but I get tired of watching the exaggerated gestures that distract from what he's trying to do. Maybe some people like the gestures, but for me, they take away any comedic momentum he might be developing. I guess the manic style might be what people like about him, but it doesn't keep me from changing the channel.

Just once, I'd love for him to bring back shotgun-toting, nascar-riding Jesus, with Sweet Home Alabama blazing in the background.

And the masturbating bear.

Sprechen sie Tweetenshlize?

Just once, I'd love for him to bring back shotgun-toting, nascar-riding Jesus, with Sweet Home Alabama blazing in the background.

And the masturbating bear.

Well, the last week or two, they addressed the masturbating bear, iirc. They couldn't take him to the Tonight Show. However, they introduced their new bear who could not find his keys in his diaper or something like that ;)

SI

Not to the available late night audience apparently.

Just as Leno had to learn to do (or matured into) Conan will either find a way to appeal to more people than he ever has -- and in his case that's anyone over 24 years old -- or he won't last long. And I don't see that happening, that's just not what he does nor do I believe he's capable of ever doing it. Time will tell.

Remember, Leno was a pretty iffy choice in the beginning but he lasted long enough to get where he needed to be.

Being as narrow as possible, what age group does Conan need to grab? I'm almost 26...I think if I was seeing Conan for the first time now, I would still like him, even if it was those first awkward years. And obviously he built a fanbase back then, most likely around guys that were my age at the time. So let's say as time goes on, those people gradually either stopped watching late night shows (lack of time, kids, tougher work environment) or drifted towards Leno/Letterman since it's on earlier. Those initial fans are somewhere between 38 and 42 now. Is that not who they should be going after? Wouldn't people eventually find him again at 11:30? I would think that's the group you want to go after if you're looking to build a long-term audience.

Those initial fans are somewhere between 38 and 42 now. Is that not who they should be going after? Wouldn't people eventually find him again at 11:30? I would think that's the group you want to go after if you're looking to build a long-term audience.

Except that those viewers have (IMO) outgrown his brand of humor, or they prefer Letterman now, or they're watching cable, or whatever. Wherever they are, they sure don't seem to have found him nor do I believe they're going to. I simply don't see him as being viable for the audience that's still watching 1135pm broadcast TV, definitely 35+ and really stretching toward 45+ and even 55+ (and skewing older & older with every passing day) nor do I believe he's compelling enough to get those who aren't there currently to come back. Like I said, time will tell, I just don't believe it'll happen.

There's some personal taste karma in play here somewhere too. FOFC is fairly consistent in liking things that don't resonate with the general public on broadcast so that works against Conan. I happen to think on his best days he's about as funny as the C-List comics that show up for Comedy Central roasts and on an average day less funny than most of them but my taste doesn't run in line with the general public either, so that would point toward him being a stunning success. One way or another, somebody's luck has to change a little, either mine or the forum's.

just posting in here to say i support conan, and when hes still on in 10 years, we can look back at people saying hed be gone soon after only 2-3 weeks on air

Exactly. Also, Conan won last night and destroyed Letterman among 18-49 year olds last week.

The first week of "The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" walloped CBS's "Late Show with David Letterman" in the key demographic of adults 18-49, according to final national Nielsen data released Thursday.

"Tonight" averaged a 2.3 rating/10 share in the demo, compared to a 0.9/4 for "Late Show," NBC said. That's a 156 percent margin of victory, the biggest since May 1992 (the month of the Johnny Carson-Jay Leno transition). Week one of O'Brien gave "Tonight" its best ratings in the demo since 2005.

Conan National Ratings: 'Tonight Show' Beats Letterman By Biggest Margin in 17 Years : TVBizwire : TVWeek - Television Industry news, TV ratings, analysis, celebrity event photos (http://www.tvweek.com/blogs/tvbizwire/2009/06/conan-national-ratings-tonight.php)

and destroyed Letterman among 18-49 year olds last week.

Hard not to win the week when your debut pulls a 7. Hell, with that start I think he could have taken zeroes two nights & still gotten the weekly win.

But one week does not a success make, especially not when you follow not only with normal decline but more decline than expected within the next 6-7 days.

CBS got most of its stations to agree to carry Sajak, promoted the show brilliantly, and sent the host off to a roaring start with a 6.2 rating. That didn't even hold up for a week. Sajak was soon sinking through the 3 rating level.

It certainly can't be good for Conan that his current trajectory is so similar to one of the biggest late night debacles in history. His ratings were in a steady decline and seem to have leveled off in the low 3's. It's not that Letterman is gaining audience. His recent numbers aren't that much higher than what he was pulling against Leno, whereas Conan is now way below Leno's numbers from the same time a year ago. Just check out this week:

Conan - Leno
Monday 3.1 - 3.6
Tuesday 2.9 - 3.9
Wednesday 3.2 - 4.0

Maybe Conan will be able to turn it around, but denying that the current numbers are a bad sign is just denying reality.

I think we do have a bit of a sample size issue, tho. Let's see where we stand at the end of summer and that's not even fair since we don't have realistic prime time lead-ins. I don't think NBC is going to pull the plug on him by the end of the year, much less summer.

SI

Well, sure it's a small sample size, but the point is more about the direction he's headed and how quickly he got there. No one expected him to hold the 7 he premiered with, but you get your highest ratings at the start, when you got all the extra promotional push. The fact that he's already well below what Leno was pulling a year ago and he's only in his 2nd week cannot be good news.

And I'm not sure the summer thing is relevant in this discussion, since Leno was of course facing the same situation in the year ago numbers that we're comparing.

Look, I like Conan alot. I'm not trying to say the sky is falling and he's going to get cancelled anytime soon. I'm simply saying that falling all the way to a 2.9 by his 7th show and hovering around the low 3's for the 2nd week is a bad sign. From 7.0 - 2.9 in 8 days? There's just no way to spin that as good news.

No, agree 100% that it's not good news. But I want to see a lot more sample size out there and I know you're saying that, too. Even something as stupid as Colbert being in Iraq can put a reasonable flutter in those numbers. If we're still seeing those numbers in 3 months, then there are serious issues.

SI

I think it started at its normal slot most places, but here in Detroit, Conan didn't start until 12:05.

Maybe it's changed, but back in the day, Conan didn't start until 12:35, after the Jenny Jones Show at 11:35. Insane.

Anyway, I watched last Tuesday's episode last night -- the Twitter sketch was still hilarious, even though it seemed like basically the same thing. I wonder how long until it gets old, but for now it's still awesome.

I don't mind Conan's monologues, but I just can't take the wild gesticulations that invariably follow his jokes a second or two later. The guy can have funny material, but I get tired of watching the exaggerated gestures that distract from what he's trying to do. Maybe some people like the gestures, but for me, they take away any comedic momentum he might be developing. I guess the manic style might be what people like about him, but it doesn't keep me from changing the channel.

As someone who just started tuning in again for the first time in years, I'd agree with this. In Tuesday's episode, he did that after almost every joke, and it made the monologues (which haven't been that good anyway) really drag.

No, agree 100% that it's not good news. But I want to see a lot more sample size out there and I know you're saying that, too. Even something as stupid as Colbert being in Iraq can put a reasonable flutter in those numbers. If we're still seeing those numbers in 3 months, then there are serious issues.

SI

Also, who knows what's going to happen once Leno's show starts. Will it work as a good lead-in, or will people just be "talk-show"ed out, and go to bed early?

Thursday numbers:

Letterman 3.5
Conan 3.0

One Year Ago:

Leno 3.8
Letterman 2.8

America just doesn't understand good humor. Norm MacDonald was awesome last night.

Thursday numbers:

Letterman 3.5
Conan 3.0

One Year Ago:

Leno 3.8
Letterman 2.8

We'll see if that holds. Much of that boost last night was due to the Palin controversy.

I think we all got to remember that Conan is not, or never was, a comedian in the traditional sense.

We'll see if that holds. Much of that boost last night was due to the Palin controversy.

What was the Palin controversy?

I have always been a big fan of Conan, but haven't really paid much attention to his show the past few years, including his migration to the Late Show. I guess it is mostly because I have other stuff going on, and I usually have cable on instead of network tv and don't really think about his show being on.

I also agree with the body gesticulations. After a while, seeing his weird body motions just gives me motion-sickness.

I hope he succeeds though, and I believe he will. What I see happening is the original fans of Leno will initially go over to Letterman for a brief time, realize why they liked Leno more, then they will give Conan a try and some will like him and others will just watch something else. In any case, I see Conan getting lower ratings for the first few months, then a steady rise in ratings, followed by a plateau near what Leno was at.

What was the Palin controversy?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0609/Palin_unamused_by_perverted_Letterman.html?showall

The Weekly Standard (http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/06/my_first_thought_was_hey_dont_1.asp)

Maybe it's changed, but back in the day, Conan didn't start until 12:35, after the Jenny Jones Show at 11:35. Insane.


I think he was referring to what time it started after the hockey game.

Anyway, back in the day Conan actually started at 2:05 in Detroit, with Jenny Jones on at 12:35, then infomercials at 1:35. It sucked!

Though overnight household ratings (which measure approximate overall viewership) have grown tighter between the two programs since O'Brien took over "The Tonight Show," newly released adult demo numbers portray last week's competition as an NBC blowout.

The advertiser-coveted adults 18-49 ratings give O'Brien a 2.3 average rating last week -- the highest-rated week for "Tonight" in more than four years and a 156% margin over CBS' "Late Show."

Even excluding the high-rated Monday premiere, "Tonight" held an 111% advantage over "Late Show," marking the best percentage advantage over the CBS program in more than 10 years. Even on their closest night, Friday, O'Brien received a 1.5 rating to Letterman's 0.8.

Not sure what to make of that, I assume JIMGA is the guy to ask. Seems like what NBC wants though.

Not sure what to make of that, I assume JIMGA is the guy to ask. Seems like what NBC wants though.

What NBC (and their local affiliates) wants is to have someone buy their spot inventory, at this point they give less than a damn who or why. Thing is, late night network isn't really known any more as a go-to spot for the younger 18-49 demo. It's been much more 25-54 in recent years (heck, for about as long as I've been buying now), often even older at the local level. If you want 18-49 at efficiency you look to 1235am, not 1135pm, as the price drops faster than the audience. It's wasn't uncommon on the local level to see Leno selling for $500 to $1500 per spot while Conan was selling for $150 to $300 per spot even though the audience wasn't always that different.

What that means (or could well mean) is that they could sell less of a higher rated 18-49 than CBS can sell of a better 25-54. Reason being that the efficiency (cost-per-point or CPP) for buying Conan may not be as good as what you can get 18-49 on cable while 25-54 is harder to get in larger chunks on cable late night & may not have the same efficiency. In other words, if Comedy Central is drawing half the audience of Conan 18-49 but selling spots for 1/3rd of the price, the smart money goes over there first.

That possible scenario is enhanced by word this week that networks are planning to hold back inventory from buyers at the up front in order to try to sell it at higher prices later in the year, basically trying to artificially prop up rates for the first part of the next season by pretending inventory is scarce.

If we had smarter buyers out there, they'd tell the networks to get stuffed but since there are a lot of really stupid lazy people on my side of the business, the tactic should work reasonably well (i.e. not as well as the networks would like but much better than common sense would dictate).

It's never a bad bet to anticipate a broadcast network (or some cable networks) pricing themselves out of available revenue, so you can't strictly convert to cash expectations based solely on any ratings (Conan's, 18-49, 35-64, or women with blue eyes, brown hair & a HHI of $50k+). But in the end, it's revenue generation for NBC that matters most, really moreso than any of the other broadcast networks right now. And Leno had a vanity buy appeal for some clients (i.e. pay more than it's really worth just to say we're in Leno) that Conan is a long way from being able to match.

Letterman wins again. Monday numbers:

Letterman 3.5
Conan 3.0

One year ago:

Leno 3.8
Letterman 2.9

Though overnight household ratings (which measure approximate overall viewership) have grown tighter between the two programs since O'Brien took over "The Tonight Show," newly released adult demo numbers portray last week's competition as an NBC blowout.

The advertiser-coveted adults 18-49 ratings give O'Brien a 2.3 average rating last week -- the highest-rated week for "Tonight" in more than four years and a 156% margin over CBS' "Late Show."

Even excluding the high-rated Monday premiere, "Tonight" held an 111% advantage over "Late Show," marking the best percentage advantage over the CBS program in more than 10 years. Even on their closest night, Friday, O'Brien received a 1.5 rating to Letterman's 0.8.

Not sure what to make of that, I assume JIMGA is the guy to ask. Seems like what NBC wants though.

Just to clarify, this is the week 1 demo numbers, which include Conan's inflated numbers for the premiere and subsequent episodes. We still have not seen week 2's demo numbers. NBC put this release out after Letterman beat Conan a couple times in week 2, and the way they word the release makes it seem like theyre talking about week 2.

Having a massive opening week means absolutely nothing. As I posted earlier in this thread, Pat Sajak beat Johnny Carson by a full point for his premiere. What will matter are how the numbers settle in future weeks.

Letterman wins again. Monday numbers:

Letterman 3.5
Conan 3.0

One year ago:

Leno 3.8
Letterman 2.9

Was there any expectation that Conan was going to beat Letterman head-to-head right off the bat? I certainly didn't expect that. I did expect him to win younger demos, but like you said, we only have the debut week for that thus far.

Was there any expectation that Conan was going to beat Letterman head-to-head right off the bat?

Absolutely. I don't think anyone who follows this stuff expected him to blow the lead Leno handed him so quickly, as habit still dictates a big chunk of network viewing.

Absolutely. I don't think anyone who follows this stuff expected him to blow the lead Leno handed him so quickly, as habit still dictates a big chunk of network viewing.

So what options does NBC have if say, they want Leno back in a year or something? Obviously, they lose O'Brien altogether. And unless O'Brien reaches Chevy Chase levels, he'll get big money somewhere else, and he'll still be the biggest star in late night if Leno and Letterman go in the next few years. Is there anything else at stake? Does O'Brien have some kind of buy-out? I would think since they publicly announced him as the successor five years ago, me must have some kind of protection against NBC just changing their mind and making him look bad.

And I feel like there would be a lot of inertia against just dumping Conan like that after what, 15 years on the network? He'll get a ton of time.

Conan wins the 2nd week demos, but it's not all good news:

Conan wins second week despite viewership low--The Live Feed (http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/06/late-night-ratings-conan-week-two-letterman.html)

For his second week at the "Tonight Show" helm, Conan O'Brien topped David Letterman to win the ratings battle in the advertiser-coveted adult demographic, as well as edge out a narrow victory among total viewers.

"Tonight Show" averaged 3.8 million viewers to 3.7 million for CBS' "Late Show." In the demo, "Tonight" firmly won with a 1.5 rating to Letterman's 0.9.


NBC called the win a "convincing" victory, a hyperbole reduction from last week's declaration that O'Brien was "The New King of Late Night."


“Conan continues to out-perform our most optimistic expectations,” said Rick Ludwin, executive vp, late night, NBC Entertainment. “This business is all about delivering the key demographic groups, and for Conan to dominate every important demographic through his first two weeks is a real ratings home run.”


Yet it was the least-watched week of NBC's late-night flagship since 1995, and the closest competitive position "Late Show" has had with "Tonight" among total viewers in four years.

Anyone find video yet of the Shatner appearance last night? I saw he was acting much nuttier than usual.

Triumph debuts on the Tonight Show tonight.

That's definitely a bold change for the Tonight Show - I'll be tuning in!

what am i missing here

haha forgot where i was

The first half of Friday's show was one of the better ones and I'm not the biggest Triumph fan.

SI

So Letterman had narrow victories on Monday and Tuesday, but the shocker came on Wednesday when neither Lettermen or Conan won:

Nightline 3.1
Letterman 2.9
Conan 2.7

I wonder how long it's been since a first run Tonight Show finished 3rd in the timeslot. Has it ever happened? And that 2.7 is Conan's lowest number yet.

As for week 3, Letterman won overall viewers (http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/dave-outdraws-conan-but-younger-viewers-are-a-different-story/)for the first time since 2005. However, Conan still has a pretty good margin on the demos.

So Letterman had narrow victories on Monday and Tuesday, but the shocker came on Wednesday when neither Lettermen or Conan won:

Nightline 3.1
Letterman 2.9
Conan 2.7

Y'know, I'm not sure how shocked I am by that. On the surface it is but it probably shouldn't be. Nightline went from the very brink of cancellation to revitalized by the format/style change and has been steadily improving for quite a while.

Didn't see it mentioned, but Conan did a very good job with his tribute bit to Ed McMahon.

Didn't see it mentioned, but Conan did a very good job with his tribute bit to Ed McMahon.

Agreed.

Anybody get to see the pole dancer last night? How exactly does one strengthen their butt cheeks to the point where they can use them to stay suspended on a pole using nothing other than previously mentioned butt cheeks? Must be a helluva personal trainer.

Ratings update....

Last week, Letterman posted a 2.6-2.0 victory for the week over Conan.

Conan still does better in demos, but Letterman is closing the gap there. They tied in 25-54, Conan narrowly won 18-49 (1.1-0.8) and still has a large margin if you narrow it to 18-34 (1.1-0.5).

I think the plan is to let Conans audience age with him. Over time, the 18-34 will become the 25-54, etc.. In the year 3000..

Please tell me someone else around here has caught tonight's episode.

Please tell me someone else around here has caught tonight's episode.

i still can, why?

Norm Macdonald is the best!

i wish there was a way to get mobile text alerts when Norm MacDonald appears on Conan. I missed it, of course.

<object width="512" height="296"><param name="movie" value="http://www.hulu.com/embed/CdtqnWFPs6sOKFgkOvaZvA"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.hulu.com/embed/CdtqnWFPs6sOKFgkOvaZvA" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" width="512" height="296"></embed></object>

There's a part 2 on hulu as well.

Meanwhile, a prediction (http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/publish/Television_44/index.asp) that by next year the median age of viewers on "The Big Three" networks will top 50 for the first time. CBS has been there for several years but both ABC & NBC are expected to hit the mark as well.

And Neilsen says fully 1/4th of the TV universe is now over 50.

Dovetails nicely with Disney scoring their fourth consecutive year with the most watched scripted show on cable over the weekend (a movie length Wizards of Waverly Place), which pulled double the total viewers of anything on primetime Friday night.

FYI I am going to see Norm October 2nd and I couldn't be happier. STFU Lowell Mather.

what the fuck was that?

Huh? It's only 9:45

SI

what the fuck was that?

A caterpillar.

A Sweeping Victory for David Letterman - Media Decoder Blog - NYTimes.com (http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/01/a-sweeping-victory-for-david-letterman/)

And now the demo excuse is over. Letterman beats Conan in 18-49 for the first time, 1.3-1.0. The 1.0 matches the lowest numbers Tonight Show has ever received in that demo.

I really do like Conan (albeit not as much as Letterman), but this has been a disaster for NBC.

Media Life Magazine - Longtime coming: The rise of 'Nightline' (http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/publish/Television_44/Longtime_coming_The_rise_of_Nightline.asp)

With the late-night landscape in turmoil, as "The Tonight Show" slips to record-low audiences and David Letterman heading off a sex scandal, ABC's "Nightline" is perhaps the steadiest of the Big Three shows at 11:35 p.m. It's also, for the first time ever during the November sweeps, the most watched. The newsmagazine just barely edged CBS's "The Late Show with David Letterman" for first place among total viewers during the one-month period, averaging 4.15 million to the latter's 4.12 million. "Tonight" managed just 2.39 million. "Nightline" also prevailed among adults 18-49 in an equally tight race, with 1.38 million to "Late Show's" 1.31 million. "Tonight" was third at 1.3 million. The irony of "Nightline" emerging as late-night's No. 1 show is that 19 months ago the program's future seemed uncertain, with ABC's pursuit of Jay Leno sparking speculation that the network would cancel "Nightline" if they got him.