....and ice cream social.

The Biden thread mentioned that Chris Christie will join the field next week, and another report says Former VP Pence will as well. That would give us:
Trump
Ron Desantis
Nikki Haley
Mike Pence
Asa Hutchinson
Tim Scott
Chris Christie
Vivek Ramaswamy (who)
Ryan Binkley (who?)
Larry Elder (who?)
Perry Johnson (who)
Doug Burgum (who?)
Francis Suarez (who?)
Will Hurd

More may join, but who could possibly win besides the obvious one?

Carrying over a question I asked in the Biden thread:
If you were going to create a non-MAGA candidate to beat Trump, what would they look like? I just can't picture one at all.
What's his positions? How is going to thread the needle of getting at least some of the extremist support without losing more moderate support? I have a hard time imaging the platform. Pro-choice but banning late term abortions? How does he back off on the Anti-CRT, Anti-woke garbage, yet still sell him self to evangelicals? I think the financial part is easy. The classic GOP "I'm going to cut your taxes, reduce the deficit, and spend more money on defense than can possibily exist in the world" lie people will always buy.It is all the social issues that will be the mine-field.
I mean, really big charisma would make a huge difference. An ability to destroy Trump verbally while not breaking a sweat is a must as well.

I just want to see one candidate on the debate stage say "Raise your hand if you've never been found liable for sexual assault!"

Doug Burgum (who?) should be announcing his candidacy in the next week or so

Doug Burgum (who?) should be announcing his candidacy in the next week or so
Added.

I just want to see one candidate on the debate stage say "Raise your hand if you've never been found liable for sexual assault!"
That really should be a basic dis-qualifier, shouldn't it?

In normal times it would be. And I know it wasn't a criminal trial.

But I would think any candidate that wants to beat Trump would have to use the civil trial as a cudgel. They should also replay all the times that Trump said that someone was "unfair" to him and then brand him as a snowflake.

The more that join the stage, the less likely anyone can derail Trump.

The debates are meaningless. Every once in a while someone gets off a good line and genuinely hurts another candidate. Christie did it to Rubio seven years ago. But generally, they yap to a draw and people pretend that the person they liked all along had a great showing. We call that spin.

Debates are to meaningful discourse as side-bets on the coin toss are to the Super Bowl.

Trump wins when people get into the mud with him. He's captured that personality trait. I don't know how he does it. The more he talks, the less serious I think he is as a human being. But that plays well in what passes for debate. He takes others out of their game. He got Rubio jabbering about penis size, of all things. On national television. Rubio would have won easily if not for the Christie line and the subsequent penis debate.

I'm not 100% sure Rubio would have governed much differently from Trump, but at least he wouldn't have been such a giant (penis metaphor) about it.

Unfortunately, handicapping the crowd changes to benefit the name you know every time a new name is added. Of the "whos", Ramaswamy is making a name being the outsider who says out loud what the outsiders are thinking. And thus he will top out at 3-4%. He'll appeal to the small number of people who genuinely like Trump, but think Trump can't win. As opposed to splitting the vote ten ways between those who genuinely dislike Trump and think he can't win. That second group might actually be huuuge within the party, but divided ten ways has no say whatsoever.

With all these candidates, Trump only needs 20-25% of the party (not the whole voting population) to stick with him fervently long enough that no one in that second group manages to unite that second group.

But if I have to handicap it, DeSantis is the name because of the landslide in Florida, but when he speaks, people fall DeSleep. Plus taking on Disney might be all fun and games, but it's not a serious platform. He's wasting whatever he could legitimately offer by wrestling the mouse.

Haley would have been the name, but her time has apparently passed, and, like McCain, she has become bitter. Scott is interesting enough, but relatively generic as senators go. Pence will never overcome having been on the ticket with Trump, and then the avid Trumpers hate him because he refused to break the law after the election. I don't know why he'd run, given that it helps Trump. Christie is also interesting in other ways, but his association with Trump plus being out of the game for so long makes his candidacy a non-starter.

Anyway, it looks like a slam-dunk for Trump unless something major changes. The wild card is that convincing fake audio/video is now a thing, and it will be used effectively last-minute in ways we can't yet anticipate. But that's more important for generals than primaries.

Let's play another game. How could Haley had stayed out of the MAGA-sphere and still stayed relevant? She was actually a really attractive candidate until she started defending the most outrageous of the Trump stuff. If she could have stayed a Trump denier, could she have stayed relevant this long to be a true contender?


Edit: I don't know why I want to play "What if?" today.

Let's play another game. How could Haley had stayed out of the MAGA-sphere and still stayed relevant? She was actually a really attractive candidate until she started defending the most outrageous of the Trump stuff. If she could have stayed a Trump denier, could she have stayed relevant this long to be a true contender?


Edit: I don't know why I want to play "What if?" today.


No because MAGA would have turned on her for speaking out against Trump. They only accepted her because she drank the Kool-aid and started working for him. If she goes back to that now, can't see them accepting her now.

It doesn't matter, though. Trump doesn't stick to her the way he does to Christie or Pence. She accepted a high position and she praised him, but she didn't get out there on his team and she didn't concede to him the way others did.

All that matters is whether she can unite people who don't particularly like Trump.

My wife asked me about a year ago if I could think of any candidates on the other team (she's a Democrat, I'm neither - never voted for anyone in either party for president) I would ever consider voting for. I mentioned Haley. I was impressed with how she handled herself in South Carolina and some of the things she said with the UN.

But the Haley this year is a different person. She's angry, less thoughtful. Not someone who seems to want to unite or inspire people. I'm left unable to answer my wife's question right now, which means I'll never be able to answer it in the positive.

I don't know what wins primaries, only that large numbers favor those who already have a name. Remember that it's a primary, and the MAGA designation is just a slogan for one candidate within the party. For someone to win and have a chance in the general, she has to walk that tightrope between differentiating herself enough to inspire people to vote and not alienating people she will have to count on in November.

Anyone who sits back and waits for the debates to make a mark is not going anywhere. Now's the time to get out to Iowa and New Hampshire and inspire people, get practice speaking, create a message.

One thing I learned when I lived in New Hampshire was to watch the news coming out of July 4th celebrations. The July 4th speeches, wherever the candidates are speaking, two years and one year before the general, tell you who's ready for the big stage. Didn't hear much last year, but COVID was still an issue.

There are several of these people who, if you transported them back 10 years ago, would have qualified as "normal" GOP candidates along the lines of Romney/Dole/McCain. Pence, obviously, but he's cooked. Aside from Haley, Tim Scott is one who could have done that, I think. I haven't heard much out of him, but I'm just assuming every GOP candidate right now has to be anti-woke/culture war and "Dems are evil" to have any kind of chance in this political climate.

Hutchinson seems like a guy trying to run as a fence sitter between being a southern GOP governor and the Cheney/Sununu/Hogan types who have pushed back against Trump. For instance, he just came out and said no J6 pardons, and I'm pretty sure he was way more on board with pushing Covid vaccines than other GOPers.

but I'm just assuming every GOP candidate right now has to be anti-woke/culture war and "Dems are evil" to have any kind of chance in this political climate.



And this isn't going to play well in a general election. The GOP has created such narrow window for them to win a general election that they absolutely need the Electoral College advantage that they have plus an uninspiring candidate like Biden to have a chance.

If you were going to create a non-MAGA candidate to beat Trump, what would they look like? I just can't picture one at all.

It is a high-risk strategy, but I think you go HARD at Trump as a huge loser. You frame it as all these hard working people just want their kids to be able to go to school and not have transgender story hour shoved in their face. But they won't be able to do that because you are going to lose to 900 year old Biden and let him replace Alito and Thomas.

And all these hard working people gave you their time and their money and their votes, and you responded by making the Senate run off all about you, you, you, so now Chuck Schumer is the thank you these people got

With every sentence, I'd constantly frame it as Trump's base vs. Trump. Give them permission to turn on him.

You all worked so hard for him, and he sold you out.
You all just want your kids to be safe, and he sold you out.
You all just want to beat Biden, and he won't step aside and let you.

It will probably fail, but if you take down the King, then you get the crown

It's a catch-22 - if a Hutchinson or Christie play the moderate, back to normal candidate game, they won't get through the primary. Christie has a ton of baggage so I don't know what he'd bring to the table in a general election, but a Haley, Scott, or Hutchinson who ran on the old school GOP policies would fare way better in a general election.

It is a high-risk strategy, but I think you go HARD at Trump as a huge loser. You frame it as all these hard working people just want their kids to be able to go to school and not have transgender story hour shoved in their face. But they won't be able to do that because you are going to lose to 900 year old Biden and let him replace Alito and Thomas.

And all these hard working people gave you their time and their money and their votes, and you responded by making the Senate run off all about you, you, you, so now Chuck Schumer is the thank you these people got

With every sentence, I'd constantly frame it as Trump's base vs. Trump. Give them permission to turn on him.

You all worked so hard for him, and he sold you out.
You all just want your kids to be safe, and he sold you out.
You all just want to beat Biden, and he won't step aside and let you.

It will probably fail, but if you take down the King, then you get the crown

The gamble here is that if you tie Trump to all of the losers he supported, a fair number of those people ALSO supported the Herschel Walkers, Kari Lakes, etc.

And the even bigger issue is that where his base has turned on him, it's to go even further extreme than him - like Covid vaccines. He got booed for bringing it up. They created a monster that is only appeased by more extreme policies and candidates.

Vivek Ramaswamy (who)


I still can't answer this question, but if this is the first thing you read about a candidate you've never heard of...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Two top aides to Vivek Ramaswamy were fired by the campaign after it was revealed they were also foreign agents on behalf of LIV golf<a href="https://t.co/pgF437XKMB">https://t.co/pgF437XKMB</a></p>&mdash; Sam Stein (@samstein) <a href="https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1663890121819561987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 31, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I still can't answer this question, but if this is the first thing you read about a candidate you've never heard of...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Two top aides to Vivek Ramaswamy were fired by the campaign after it was revealed they were also foreign agents on behalf of LIV golf<a href="https://t.co/pgF437XKMB">https://t.co/pgF437XKMB</a></p>&mdash; Sam Stein (@samstein) <a href="https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1663890121819561987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 31, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


He also wants people under 25 to pass a citizenship test in order to be eligible to vote.

Youngkin is sending VA guardsmen down to the border, so he's probably in.

Vivek and Scott are not in it to win the Presidency. They are angling to be Trump's VP. They won't attack him much. Scott feels like the most logical choice since he gives that phony evangelical vibe that Pence had. But him being in the closet is kind of a risk too.

Christie is interesting. I wonder if he's in it just to stir up shit and attack Trump. He'd be ruthless at a debate but I see no scenario where Trump even bothers with debates in the primary since he's up so much in the polls.

Youngkin is still a possibility, and so is Brian Kemp.

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Good ol' Haley, the one candidate that might have gotten me to vote for HRC.

Good ol' Haley, the one candidate that might have gotten me to vote for HRC.


Damn! We missed our chance :)

I have even odds Jon would have spontaneously combusted if he voted for Hillary.

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and so is Brian Kemp.

If THAT miserable sack of shit is in play then there really is no hope for the country*. The only thing good I can say for that bastard is that he's actually more likable than his wife, who is the single most unbearably obnoxious person I've encountered in decades if not ever.



(who am I kidding, I don't actually believe there's any realistic hope anyway)

SE Cupp seems to think Chris Christie is purposely going kamikaze to try to bring down Trump. He knows he won't win, he is just trying to make Trump lose.

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SE Cupp seems to think Chris Christie is purposely going kamikaze to try to bring down Trump. He knows he won't win, he is just trying to make Trump lose.

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That doesn't sound like a rational take on her part. Christie might end up working in that manner, but he also has to have some sort of message, some sort of genuine definition of what he's selling - even if it's solely a narcissistic view.

Trump would be wise to avoid debates, but he can't resist a television audience any more than he could resist undignified twitter posting. I guess he's continued that on his own social network, but does anyone see those posts other than the media and his true fans?

Too many of these candidates don't inspire anything. It's like they're running for president of their bedroom mirrors.

I have to admit, though, I am curious about what would have made Jon vote for Hillary over Haley at the time. I don't think the two candidates have much in common other than XX in the 23rd pair.

Trump will for sure run as 3rd party if he loses the primary right? 2024 might be the election for some sort of 4th unify the country party...

Biden vs DeSantis vs Trump 3rd party vs some sort of Wes Moore/Pence unification ticket.

Who am I kidding it will be Biden/Trump part 2...

Yeah, it seems like a foregone conclusion that we get Trump v. Biden 2: The Oldening.

There are serous discussions to be had about the future of the GOP post-Trump, the balance between individual liberty and concerned parents, the proper balance of revenue generation vs. spending cuts to handle the debt, the United States' place in a world with increasing authoritarian influences . . .

and none of that might matter for DeSantis because he looks weird in still pictures when he laughs.

Politics is so stupid sometimes.

I doubt Trump runs 3rd party, that's just too much work. He would, though, spend all his time trying to sabotage the GOP nominee so he could claim that if he was the nominee he would have won.

I doubt Trump runs 3rd party, that's just too much work. He would, though, spend all his time trying to sabotage the GOP nominee so he could claim that if he was the nominee he would have won.


He'll be "Truth Socialing" like never before

Trial balloons being floated now for Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan to run as a Democrat, trying to find a less political angle to appeal to the not-into-old-Joe plurality of party voters. Fascinating if it actually comes together, he could be more formidable than Bloomburg, I think.

And this isn't going to play well in a general election. The GOP has created such narrow window for them to win a general election that they absolutely need the Electoral College advantage that they have plus an uninspiring candidate like Biden to have a chance.

Trump needs a large field in the GOP primary race. His die-hard fanatics account for almost half of the republican base, but only about 35% of the national electorate. With a large field, he can eliminate the other challengers by attrition over time. Of course, in the general election, he doesn't really have much of a chance with independents (who he needs to win), as they would vote for a mannequin over Trump.

So for the democrats, Trump is the gift that keeps giving, and it's in their best interest to have Trump as the republican nominee again.

Trial balloons being floated now for Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan to run as a Democrat, trying to find a less political angle to appeal to the not-into-old-Joe plurality of party voters. Fascinating if it actually comes together, he could be more formidable than Bloomburg, I think.
He might pull some moderate right moderates, but man would he turn off anyone left of center on. Youth vote would despise him.

I'm aware that ot-of-nowhere candidates are almost always DOA. I'm not naive.

And the say-so of another corporate raider type isn't swaying anyone, I get that.

But here's Bill Ackman's summary of the case, and... I think there's something to it. By that I mean like a 10% chance of this snowballing into being "a thing," not a 75% chance.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jamie Dimon is one of the world's most respected business leaders. Politically he is a centrist. He is pro-business and pro-free enterprise, but also supportive of well-designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate. He is extremely smart,…</p>&mdash; Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1663959113703751720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 31, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Full text:

Jamie Dimon is one of the world's most respected business leaders. Politically he is a centrist. He is pro-business and pro-free enterprise, but also supportive of well-designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate. He is extremely smart, thoughtful, and pragmatic, and he knows how to bring opposing parties together. He is highly respected by the Right, the Left, and the Center.

Jamie is beloved by his 240,000+ employees, highly respected by our military as well as by the global political and business leaders that matter. He has superbly managed
@jpmorgan
through every crisis, and has built the world's best, large, global financial institution working for clients from startups and mom and pops, to global institutions and countries.

Our country is at risk with $32T of debt with no end to massive deficits in sight, heading into a recession at a time of great political uncertainty. We need an exemplary business, financial, and global leader to manage through what is likely to be a critically important decade for our country in determining our destiny.

Jamie Dimon is that leader.

Jamie is of exemplary and unimpeachable character. He is a no bullshit, straight-talking, charismatic leader with an enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them. He is a great communicator that makes everyone who hears his words feel respected and inspired. He has enormous energy, vigor, and drive.

He is a wonderful father, friend, husband, and son. In sum, he is the kind of person our country deserves as our next leader. And clearly he is thinking about running:

Dimon Hints at Life After JPMorgan, Says He’d Consider Public Office (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dimon-hints-life-jpmorgan-says-053655970.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACHg-sYxeGFVOG8JKG7eK_YKwmKC_qeIJgeLGkKKnsBdjKzBnrccSRAU6PDfSNpUQdrA0XpSw9zAVSYIxr8DoQ4cNTX3XVTE3wNs7T0E9ELcPpoth8jB4yVSgGLDPfGYpU2ZHDkXCQ6REE-406dR1IubtTdV2b5xDbudg4D1DHYv)

I can't imagine a better time for him to do so.

@POTUS
is extremely weak and in cognitive decline. 70% of Democrats don't want him to run. Biden's weakness sets up a large opening for a qualified outsider to run as a Democrat.

Jamie can beat Biden in the primary and
@realDonaldTrump
in the general election, but he needs to start now and build name recognition among the broad electorate. He will easily raise billions of dollars from Democrats and Republicans to fund his campaign, and he knows how to build support.

Each year, Jamie gets on a bus and travels around the country meeting with tellers, branch managers, and other employees to spread the culture and inspire the JPM team; great preparation for a presidential run. He will also be incredible on the debate stage.

And there is nothing more for him to achieve at JPM. He has already been crowned the world's best banker. JPM stock will go up even more when he becomes POTUS as he can do more for the bank and our economy as President than he can as Chairman and CEO of JPM. The bank will be in great shape since he has built a deep succession bench that is more than ready to step up.

There is only one better job for Jamie than CEO of JPM and that's POTUS.

Jamie just needs a push from people he respects and from the broader electorate. If you agree that he should be our next POTUS, give him a call, send him an email or go see him, and like and retweet this tweet.

This will be one of the most important elections in our country's history. Jamie is more likely to run if we build a groundswell of support for him. Let's do our civic duty and make it happen.

Our challenges as a nation are largely due to failures of leadership. America needs and deserves great leadership and we need it now.

All that may be true, but I'm not sure "super-rich bank executive" plays well with the kids these days?

It reads as if Ackman doesn't understand that the black vote is the key to the Dem primary. How does Dimon take that away from Biden?

In a normal world, he'd run as a Republican, right?

The only reason for anyone to run and think they have a shot at the nomination is on the chance that Trump or Biden are forced to drop out whether due to health or legal issues. Not the worst bet to make but the candidates are not playing to beat either of them.

In a normal world, he'd run as a Republican, right?

I have read that Dimon is a registered D and has voted absentee in most recent elections.

And I do get how the deck would be stacked against him.

Trump needs a large field in the GOP primary race. His die-hard fanatics account for almost half of the republican base, but only about 35% of the national electorate. With a large field, he can eliminate the other challengers by attrition over time. Of course, in the general election, he doesn't really have much of a chance with independents (who he needs to win), as they would vote for a mannequin over Trump.

So for the democrats, Trump is the gift that keeps giving, and it's in their best interest to have Trump as the republican nominee again.

The last part, absolutely. One of the big stories of 2024 will be the numbers of Democrats who will step in if polling indicates Trump is in any danger of losing the nomination.

That won't be necessary with a large field. One thing that struck me in 2016 was the inability of any of the establishment candidates to define themselves.

At the start of the cycle, Trump was a side-show. He had no chance. He ended an early debate by accusing Megyn Kelly of having "blood coming from her eyes," which the media took as some sort of menstruation analogy, but I seriously doubt Trump is capable of or interested in that type of subtlety.

What he was after was getting his candidacy talked about. Over time, he became the story. Not how he'd govern, but his personality.

On the other end were the usual suspects. Every campaign has them. Senators and sometimes governors of large states who have made the right connections and risen through the ranks. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio on one side, Ted Cruz playing the role of the leader of the conservative right - which does have its dedicated following, but a ceiling within the party that prevents nomination.

What Trump did was create his own following. I don't know what avid Trumpers have in common other than an attraction to his personality. They'll "build a wall," but that means different things to different people. Certainly a physical wall, which Trump often talked about, is meaningless without an immigration strategy behind it - rules, infrastructure, definitions, enforcement. All very important but never articulated. We can't have a country like the US without immigration - everyone knows this, I think. Trump even knows this. Rhetoric is not a policy and policy doesn't interest Trump.

There was a moment I've referred to earlier here - when Christie took down Rubio in a debate. It was a strange moment. Rubio was doing the classic pivot line thing where you take a question, restate it, then gracefully segue into a planned piece where you end with a tested, trusted line. That's how "debate" works in the modern era. You win by never answering the question that's asked. Christie pointed out the segue. Rubio responded by repeating it. Christie pointed that out. And Rubio, earnestly and confidently, because he knew, absolutely knew, that it was a good segue and a tested line, repeated it a second time. Christie leaned in and that was that. The moment.

And there's Jeb on the side, royalty in having two presidents in the immediate family, governor of an important state, a genuinely nice guy - many considered him the one who actually would govern with heart, despite complete deference to the Republican establishment.

Jeb's there rolling his eyes. He saw it happening. He knew Trump was going to win and what that meant and he did not have the energy or the ammunition to fight it. Trump, of course, picked up on that immediately. We think of Trump as clueless. He isn't. He just has no interest (or ability, really) in the actual governing thing.

Rooting for the establishment over Trump in 2024 would be like rooting for the Storm Troopers in Star Wars (the original one). They arrive in masses, they shoot their weapons. Badly, without aim, but they usually win because few people possess the magic to unerringly avoid poorly-aimed trooper guns. Mitt Romney and the doddering version of John McCain were Storm Troopers.

I don't think the Republican party can be fixed right now. What they need is a Reagan, someone who understands personality and can connect it to policy. They have policy people in the race (Haley and others), they have establishment people - the next generation of Rubio/Bush (Pence, Scott, DeSantis to a certain extent). Someone will play the role of Ted Cruz, not sure where that will come from since people seem to have assumed Cruz would run again and it's starting to look like he won't. But I don't see the personality, other than Trump and Ramaswamy, who would be an improvement over Trump because he isn't Trump, but probably not much functional difference.

So we'll get Trump, and I think we'll get Biden again - Kennedy's vaccination thing will come up if he starts to gain traction and Biden will not debate him. Only even older and I'm sure various health issues affect both of them at this point. It's really a depressing thought, thinking of Biden/Trump 2. No boogaloo, not even a bit of electricity.

But it doesn't matter how many die-hard fanatics Trump has. I think it's a small number, but for someone to take the nomination from him, he or she needs to create his or her own die-hard fanatics. And that will attract people who need to be die-hard about something.

He's going to slaughter everyone in the primary.


<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump: &quot;I don't like the term 'woke,&quot; because I hear the term 'woke woke woke' -- it's just a term they use, half the people can't define it, they don't know what it is.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/uhZLRADXHa">pic.twitter.com/uhZLRADXHa</a></p>&mdash; Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) <a href="https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1664307437371809792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 1, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

I actually agree with Trump here. At least the blurb, I didn't watch the video. I'm not sure "woke" has a set definition. What it means to you may be different than what it means to me. Therefore it makes it kind of hard to use it in a conversation. So I've been trying to avoid using it.

I think we all agree with Trump on that point, that's the genius of it....he practically created the term, then when everyone else has been forced to hop on his square-wheeled wagon he's like "that's dumb. Lookit those dumbasses".

I think we all agree with Trump on that point, that's the genius of it....he practically created the term, then when everyone else has been forced to hop on his square-wheeled wagon he's like "that's dumb. Lookit those dumbasses".

He ramped up most of the culture war stuff and now that people have taken it to extremes, he's going to jump in and act like the "reasonable" one. Tiny Ron DeSantis wants to inspect your kids genitals before they start school after all. I'm just looking to bring prices down for your family.

Say what you want about the guy, but it's pretty fucking brilliant.

At the start of the cycle, Trump was a side-show.

I'd go so far to say his entire primary campaign in 2016 was a side-show, beginning with his ad hominem attacks on Jeb Bush and family. When Ted Cruz became a legitimate threat, Trump started with the "Lyin' Ted" nickname and accused Cruz's father of being involved with the JFK assassination. Cruz called Trump "a pathological liar" in this press conference. Of course, after the campaign, Ted buried his head up Trump's ass, just like almost all of the other republicans.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BxnkfE6Y5iI" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Trump also called Cruz's wife ugly in a roundabout way.

Hmmmm...<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Is this the head of the same JPMorgan that has paid around $50 billion in fines over the last 20 years and has manipulated precious metals markets? I guess you looking for a position as Secretary of the treasury?</p>&mdash; maneco64 (@maneco1964) <a href="https://twitter.com/maneco1964/status/1663971702341025799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 31, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Just amazing that no one is willing to hit Trump on his biggest vulnerability. He's a losing loser that spreads his losing to the whole party.

I actually agree with Trump here. At least the blurb, I didn't watch the video. I'm not sure "woke" has a set definition. What it means to you may be different than what it means to me. Therefore it makes it kind of hard to use it in a conversation. So I've been trying to avoid using it.


all it means is that everything Dems/liberals like and stand for is going to destroy our country and must be stopped. They are just lumping them all under one banner now.

He ramped up most of the culture war stuff and now that people have taken it to extremes, he's going to jump in and act like the "reasonable" one. Tiny Ron DeSantis wants to inspect your kids genitals before they start school after all. I'm just looking to bring prices down for your family.

Say what you want about the guy, but it's pretty fucking brilliant.

This is exactly what he will do. He knows he will NEVER lose his base, the mental gymnastics they will go through to convince themselves he said something but meant something else is astonishing.

So what we will see is him take the opposite stance of the over the top nonsensical things the GOP have trotted out in their endless culture war to appease moderates and independents.

It just may work.

So I just texted with my brother in law. He is super high up with JPM. Reports directly to Jamie Dimon. Bloomberg monthly did an article about him. Google his name and tons of shit comes up. He knows Dimon like almost no one else.

My BIL absolutely thinks he should run.

My BILs exact words

I would like him to run. I think he is a centrist that can get stuff done. He can appeal to common folk too if they get the time to know him. Out tellers in middle America love him.

But most don't know him and he is a billionaire so not starting from a great place to build a campaign.

Just amazing that no one is willing to hit Trump on his biggest vulnerability. He's a losing loser that spreads his losing to the whole party.

One of the biggest electoral losers in history. Never won the popular vote, lost the house, lost the senate, one of the worst, if not the worst, records for an administration in front of the SC and other federal courts. How many bankruptcies?

This is the guy the GOP attached their wagon to and continue to let him try to carry them to more losses.

In a normal world, he'd run as a Republican, right?
He looks a lot like a Romney Republican. I just don't see a old white banker with a bad history with POC can come close to challenging Biden.

A good Biden challenger has to some how appeal to the moderate wing without losing the black or youth vote. Jon Stewart was a good example, though not one likely to want to run.

So my BIL just wrote me, he asked Dimon who said he would love the job but doesn't want to go through the campaign.

Just amazing that no one is willing to hit Trump on his biggest vulnerability. He's a losing loser that spreads his losing to the whole party.

They'll counter that he won every election and it was just rigged. Other candidates can't bring it up because they'll lose that demographic that is into QAnon and election conspiracies.

The Dimon stuff makes no sense. Bloomberg tried to do the centrist schtick and put a ton of money behind it and got nowhere. I don't see how someone who is even more tied into the financial world and was part of the great recession would fare better.

When asked to name something about Trump that I liked--really liked, not just a backhanded fake complement--I would say Operation Warp Speed and the First Step Act. Those were really good things that the Trump White House led on and did.

So, of course, DeSantis is picking both of those as areas for attack.

They'll counter that he won every election and it was just rigged. Other candidates can't bring it up because they'll lose that demographic that is into QAnon and election conspiracies.

Trump is a great winner is no way to run a campaign.

When asked to name something about Trump that I liked--really liked, not just a backhanded fake complement--I would say Operation Warp Speed

Yes, but as I recall the MAGAts were angry that their leader didn't get more credit for expediting the vaccine that most of them refused to take, for a virus they said was a hoax.

Running anti-vax may help in the primary, although I'm skeptical, but it definitely will hurt in the general. Even just anti-covid vax is going to be an anchor.

Yes, but as I recall the MAGAts were angry that their leader didn't get more credit for expediting the vaccine that most of them refused to take, for a virus they said was a hoax.

Well, they were skeptical of it because it came out so quickly because it was fast tracked and half the work had already been done when researching a potential common cold vaccine.

When asked to name something about Trump that I liked--really liked, not just a backhanded fake complement--I would say Operation Warp Speed and the First Step Act. Those were really good things that the Trump White House led on and did.

I did like it when Trump stood up on the primary debate stage and told the audience that George W Bush didn't keep us safe on 9/11. Cuz you know, thousands of people died.

Good ol' Haley, the one candidate that might have gotten me to vote for HRC.

I'd pay for PPV to have seen this.

I doubt Trump runs 3rd party, that's just too much work. He would, though, spend all his time trying to sabotage the GOP nominee so he could claim that if he was the nominee he would have won.

A legit 3rd party with any hope of succeeding would need to start now, in order to have a 50-state ground game, including getting on the ballots in states. Given those deadlines, dropping out of, or losing, a primary is too late to get on enough ballots, even with infinite resources.

So, I agree. If he loses the primary, he might run "3rd party" out of spite, and it's likely his true believers (or grifters) might get him on the ballot in a few states, and if any of those states are swingy enough, it would be plenty to give the election to Biden.

So my BIL just wrote me, he asked Dimon who said he would love the job but doesn't want to go through the campaign.

If I had been on the board yesterday when this came up this would have been my guess. He's already in charge of JPM. POTUS is probably a lateral move with a lot of downside.

When asked to name something about Trump that I liked--really liked, not just a backhanded fake complement--I would say Operation Warp Speed and the First Step Act. Those were really good things that the Trump White House led on and did.

Yeah, except.... (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=3396431&postcount=7490)

Definitely playing footsie with running.
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Taking our country back from Joe Biden does not start with congratulating North Korea’s murderous dictator. <a href="https://t.co/XDJP6B2qFO">pic.twitter.com/XDJP6B2qFO</a></p>&mdash; Brian Kemp (@BrianKempGA) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1664785130739605507?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

What a miserable sack of shit, to call out a former President's love affair with a murdering bastard.

Jack Dorsey just endorsed RDK, Jr. if anyone needed more proof that dude is crazy.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is so incredibly dishonest, teenage girls aren’t killing themselves because of girls sports. These people don’t care about teenage girls, except if they can use them to beat up trans kids. <a href="https://t.co/2w0SpHBo8i">https://t.co/2w0SpHBo8i</a></p>&mdash; Molly Jong-fast (@MollyJongFast) <a href="https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1665532315450187776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

More the merrier at this stage. But he should fire his advisors.

I don't see how Pence stands a chance. He is/was too close to Trump. His performance during the election was good but not enough to redeem him for the other 3.5 years of "guilt by association".

He'll be asked some critical & tricky questions about his 4 years with Trump. And I'm sure Trump will have extra special things to say about him. Why put yourself through that now? I'd tell him to find something else to do (and make money).

Former Vice President Mike Pence on Monday filed the paperwork for his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, setting up a clash with his running mate of elections past, former President Donald Trump.

Pence is set to formally announce his candidacy on Wednesday ahead of a CNN presidential town hall that evening.

The last thing the GOP needs is more candidates. I suspect they all think trumps legal woes will catch up to him and they will be the one who gets the scraps. That’s fine but if it looks like he’s going to get the nomination they need to all coalesce around one candidate. If we repeat 2016 he coasts to the nomination and they have to know he has little chance of winning the general.

There's no easier way to make money than raising money from right-wing millionaires.

There's no easier way to make money than raising money from right-wing millionaires.
I do think there is money to be made both in the campaign and the speaker circuit after. A couple are also just trying to get on the ticket with Trump.

More the merrier at this stage. But he should fire his advisors.

I don't see how Pence stands a chance. He is/was too close to Trump. His performance during the election was good but not enough to redeem him for the other 3.5 years of "guilt by association".

He'll be asked some critical & tricky questions about his 4 years with Trump. And I'm sure Trump will have extra special things to say about him. Why put yourself through that now? I'd tell him to find something else to do (and make money).


I still say Pence's best chance to become President if he had from Jan 6 on had turned into the best witness to Trump's crimes, and not fought against subpoena's/Jan 6 commission. Get the Christian nationalism part of MAGA to his side, and make Trump look like he was the Anti-Christ. Christians love to forgive sins after all.



Instead we got a book and no real condemnation of Trump other than Jan 6. Still going after the "woke" parts of America-now he has no chance.

I don't see how that would get any part of MAGA to his side. It would have ensured that they would hate him forever. I think it's a terrible idea for him to be run, but from a purely personal political point of view, signing on to Trump was an in for a penny, in for a pound sort of deal. There's no going back after a certain point.

I know you're being partly sarcastic, but I'm all for forgiveness. I aspire to be like the Amish group some years back that openly forgave the culprit shortly after a brutal murder happened to someone in their community by an outsider. But there's a difference between forgiveness and voting for someone to be President.

Get the Christian nationalism part of MAGA to his side, and make Trump look like he was the Anti-Christ.

Trump has done this all on his own and they still love him like a savior. Like he's the second coming, you might even say.

Pence is what he always was: an empty suit.

And I'm pretty sure most all the Trump supporters already hold him in such low regard that he had no chance to attract them. Hell, Trump is no better than my #2 choice and there's no chance I'd have wasted the energy to vote for someone as incapable and useless as Pence.

One important question is what percentage of the new Republican base is devoted to Trump in that manner.

We're all familiar by now with the Twitterizing of the media. Most stories now are about reactions. Reporters sit in their bedrooms and trawl the twitterverse for the most extreme commentary, then those reactions become the story.

The intent is to manufacture clicks out of nothing. No investment in reporting. The result is an industry that makes its money from the division of America. I think Alinksy's rules apply quite well to the media these days.

So when we see a story about the "other" side, whichever side, it's usually an example of Twitterizing. By no means representative of the majority of the people. The vast majority of Democrats do not dress up in drag and molest children. The vast majority of Republicans do not wish to return to a time when women and black people had no rights.

It's my hope that we have some items here that don't devolve into that, but I get accused of "bothsiderism" when I say that, so I try not to say that too much.

Primaries are designed by parties to protect those in power. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the apple cart was turned over in 2016 because Trump figured out how to beat the system. He tapped into voter frustration with the system. We talk about outsiders and populism all the time, but it almost never comes together like that. We get outsiders who remain at 2%. We get populists who simply repeat the party line. Perot is the only other person who even came close in my lifetime and he didn't have much interest in joining either party. He ended up being the guy who ended the Reagan run by splitting the Republicans more thoroughly than the Democrats. They never quite recovered.

Trump simply took a party (strangely enough, the party he didn't register with for much of his politically active life) and made it his own. He has no overriding political philosophy. He has governed... oddly. Sometimes he defers to the Republican core (his relatively new position on abortion rights being the most notable) and sometimes he doesn't. Maybe that appeals to a lot of people. His greatest political talent seems to be in understanding how to get voters interested in him - positively or negatively. He seems to benefit from both.

The numbers suggest one person would have a tough time beating him. One person divided ten ways... impossible. How people like Pence don't see this is a mystery. I guess in order to seek a major public office one must have a blind spot when it comes to not seeing the bigger picture. In order to beat Trump, someone has to inspire people, not slowly build a political machine that roams the Iowa countryside.

In order to beat Trump, someone has to inspire people, not slowly build a political machine that roams the Iowa countryside.

And talk about a Pence weakness, yikes. He's a perfect example of starving dogs, fresh meat, etc.

There's no easier way to make money than raising money from right-wing millionaires.

I was just coming to ask if these candidates have to return any leftover donations once their campaign fails.

Sununu is out. I was intrigued by his candidacy, but he certainly fails the "inspire lots of people" test.

This decision is perhaps the best indication of his qualification for the job he'll never have.

"The vast majority of Republicans do not wish to return to a time when women and black people had no rights."
Just talking with the Trump flag flyers that I deal with every day, I think Twitter might underrepresent how badly they want just that.

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I was just coming to ask if these candidates have to return any leftover donations once their campaign fails.

There are a few options, including return the money (which no one does).

Most form a "Leadership PAC". They have almost no regulation and can just be used as a personal slush fund.

They can return it all because the new play is cry "RIGGED!" and fundraise off of that.

Here is the calculus of the RFK jr. run. If he isn't enough of a fly in the ointment, the "No Labels" party will also help the chaos.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1. <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RobertKennedyJr</a> is running for the Democratic nomination, but his biggest supporters are all Far Right Republicans like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson. The reasons why helps explain the MAGA plan to win in '24 and beyond.<a href="https://t.co/VtYUvuUbcL">https://t.co/VtYUvuUbcL</a></p>&mdash; Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) <a href="https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/1666095181333151744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 6, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Chris Christie is in again. Not sure why, except to annoy Trump.

Doug Burgum is also in. North Dakota governor. Tech business background. Intriguing, but the whoest of the "whos". This type never passes the inspire test. I doubt he even gets a nickname from Trump.

Personally, I'd love to see someone like this become inspiring. I just don't think it will happen any time soon. We revere our geriatric slogan muppets.

We see with Asa Hutchinson what the RNC pledge is going to do. All of these candidates are, in essence, swearing loyalty to Trump when he wins the nomination.

How does Christie deal with a pledge that promises he'll support Trump?

Mike Pence Launches Presidential Bid With Scathing Condemnation Of Donald Trump (https://dailyboulder.com/mike-pence-launches-presidential-bid-with-scathing-condemnation-of-donald-trump/)



“President Trump endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol on that day. But it is important for the American people to know that he also demanded that I choose between him and our Constitution. Now, voters will face the same choice,” Pence said. “I chose the Constitution, and I always will.”


Rats are jumping ship, for whatever that is worth.

Mike Pence Launches Presidential Bid With Scathing Condemnation Of Donald Trump (https://dailyboulder.com/mike-pence-launches-presidential-bid-with-scathing-condemnation-of-donald-trump/)



“President Trump endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol on that day. But it is important for the American people to know that he also demanded that I choose between him and our Constitution. Now, voters will face the same choice,” Pence said. “I chose the Constitution, and I always will.”


Rats are jumping ship, for whatever that is worth.
That's a solid statement. Never expected it of him.

Chris Christie is in again. Not sure why, except to annoy Trump.


Wants to be DeSantis' AG. His job is to just attack Trump in a way that DeSantis can't. Kind of the same role he played for Trump in attacking Rubio.

But if the R's really, in their hearts, believed that, they would have removed his sugar daddy from office and let him take over.

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1666616488449409026?s=46&t=l-E556SDZnv52YZTh9J2dg

if Pence cannot say that Trump should be indicted if he committed a crime, then what is Pence doing running?

Even better, Pence said he would support the GOP nominee.

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1666616488449409026?s=46&t=l-E556SDZnv52YZTh9J2dg

if Pence cannot say that Trump should be indicted if he committed a crime, then what is Pence doing running?

You can spot the moment that the 3 remaining brain cells in his head start kicking around. What a disastrous response.

You can spot the moment that the 3 remaining brain cells in his head start kicking around. What a disastrous response.

He was legit caught off guard by the question. Who are his advisors? How do you not know that’s coming?

It was a great question. You spend a minute talking about restoring law and order and then later on talk about how law and order shouldn't matter if you're an elite.

Most candidates know how to deflect that stuff but Pence genuinely seems like a simpleton.

I don't think your campaign is going well if you rush out immediately to defend another candidate that was just indicted.

It's particularly ridiculous for Pence to do so, since he's not winning over any of the people he thinks he's courting by not outright going after Trump. You can't play both sides when one side hates your guts.

Pence has never struck me as a bright individual.

It's particularly ridiculous for Pence to do so, since he's not winning over any of the people he thinks he's courting by not outright going after Trump. You can't play both sides when one side hates your guts.

Exactly, his best play would have been as the guy that gives insight into Trump's true personality and tells horror stories of his time in the oval office.

I honestly don't think the unswayable MAGA block is as big as many believe. It's sizable, probably 15-20% of the GOP base, but I really believe there's a path to winning without them and considering the fact that it plays better to moderates it likely has a better chance in the general.

Everyone seems to think the only way to beat Trump is to try to steal his voters that aren't voting for anyone else.

I don't think it's all about "stealing" his voters as much as it is about hoping to do enough (by not being overly critical) to get them to vote for someone else because that seems to be the only portion of the GOP electorate that is overly energized, and it's all about turnout for them (combined with targeted supression efforts).

Right now I'm thinking Pence is hoping that Trump drops out of the race one way or another. Then maybe he has a chance to pick up some of the MAGA voters.

And lets face it. If Trump is in the race then Pence has zero chance. So he might as well court the MAGA voters and hope that Trump doesn't run.

How do you not at least hedge a bit? Give yourself some wiggle room in-case the evidence is just ridiculously bad? The level this part has completely sold out to this orange freak is astounding.

I think many people would be relieved if Trump just went away.

I'm not sure it's a good look to get him on campaign finance rules that are hard to parse and seem arbitrary coming from his political opponents. Or boxes of documents when classified documents was an issue with Hillary and now with Biden. The Russian pee-document turned out to be a big nothing, and that was the impetus for one of the impeachments, originally.

So if they've got something different, by all means. But it's been looking like the Democrats just don't like Trump and have been abusing the impeachment process and the judicial system for a long time now. That's a better take if you're a Republican.

This is not to argue any one of the many charges against Trump. I really don't know if he broke the law or if there's a case that he should be locked up because it's just so bad that not even Nixon's spying is in the same ballpark. The one charge that sticks with me is the pending case in Georgia - if he actually tried to do what he apparently threatened to do... that should be enough. But it has to be more than the usual bluster that comes from politicians who are upset about an election. Which is not to argue that it isn't - I know this is a heavy D board and arguing politics here is simply not productive.

I think the end game is to ensure he wins the nomination by making the primaries all about Trump, then muddy up the post-convention decision period with trials and such.

So what do you do if you're one of the already too-large group of Republican candidates? If you support prosecution or even hedge right now, you're toast in the debates because the timeline is all wrong - this won't be settled before Iowa - not even close. Your best play is a statement about the weaponization of the judicial system, then try to ignore the circus - maybe even hope it works.

But if you make a big deal about the weaponization issue, you're making Trump the center of attention. Which is just what he wants and just what the Democrats want. So that's a lose, too.

I think the only play is to stamp your feet a little right now, then keep quiet about it. If you're feeling a little itchy, maybe promise a pardon for Trump as your first act as president. But itchy takes aren't exactly going to fly around with this crowd - they just aren't looking to inspire right now, except maybe Ramaswamy, who might be trying to position himself as an answer if the judicial system moves faster than it's going to move in this case.

Eh, nevermind. Both sides going to both sides.

Or boxes of documents when classified documents was an issue with Hillary and now with Biden.

What Trump is accused of doing and what Biden and Hilary did with classified materials is apples and orangutangs. They're so far far apart they shouldn't even be discussed together.

Without trying to come off as an ass, if you can't see the difference between these situations then you're part of the problem. What Trump did was far closer to Robert Hanssen was doing than Hilary or Biden. He was planning to use our intelligence for his own gain. This should be the biggest presidential scandal in our nation's history, but it's difficult for many to wrap their heads around the seriousness of this issue when it's tied to the President of the United States.

We need to get to a point in our society where we can choose to take sides on a particular issue, person, etc., without people feeling like they are automatically joining "the other side." It's OK to be a free-thinking, independent voter and say that Trump is a criminal, what is known about the Hillary and Biden situations is not the same, and that if Biden is shown to have done the same, charge the fucker!

I want criminals charged. I do not care what their party affiliation is. No one is above the law.

What Trump is accused of doing and what Biden and Hilary did with classified materials is apples and orangutangs. They're so far far apart they shouldn't even be discussed together.

Without trying to come off as an ass, if you can't see the difference between these situations then you're part of the problem. What Trump did was far closer to Robert Hanssen was doing than Hilary or Biden. He was planning to use our intelligence for his own gain. This should be the biggest presidential scandal in our nation's history, but it's difficult for many to wrap their heads around the seriousness of this issue when it's tied to the President of the United States.

That's one take. Sounds extreme. Just like the Russia pee-document. I'm just not going to be suckered at this stage any more. Maybe you're right. Maybe not. I'm not trying to both-sides it, but I have little trust in the media on anything politics-related at this point. They really sold the Russia story like it was dead-solid fact, just like the take above. It wasn't even based on anything real. They just wanted it to be true.

The one piece of that which makes no sense to me (and Trump often makes no sense to me, so there's that) is if he felt he had documents that were worth enough money to be worth treason, and he knew that the DOJ knew he had boxes of documents on his property and had thought that a better lock was the solution, then those particular documents would not have been found with the rest. Not even Geraldo Rivera would have found them. Of course, he might be that stupid. Certainly the Democrats think he is.

I'm not trying to both-sides this. I'm just saying that at some point, drinking the Kool-Aid constantly put out by either one of the sides will make you perpetually angry. Because then you're paying attention to them, not to what actually matters.

Why are you talking about Democrats and the media as if this was some sort of party press conference? A grand jury indicted him!

It seems like you've become so disillusioned by the entire political process that you won't allow yourself to see the obvious.

Trump/Russia is basically true. Trump's team did coordinate with Russians. Russians did hack Hillary and the DNC. Multiple people were prosecuted for crimes related to that.

This is what a GOP Senate committee report said.

Why are you talking about Democrats and the media as if this was some sort of party press conference? A grand jury indicted him!

Because it sounds like a party press conference. Nowhere in the indictment, I think, is there a claim that he intended to use the documents.

Nor is a grand jury indictment anything more than a group agreeing that what the prosecutor has presented is something that can be prosecuted. It's an early stage.

We don't know what's in the secret documents Biden kept. With Hillary, I think the complaint was that she used a home server and copied sensitive information, then tried to destroy it when that was revealed. At least that's what I think the "lock her up" nonsense was all about.

None of this is helpful. If you want to paint me as some sort of right-wing extremist, I don't think you're right. I don't even vote Republican. But I am skeptical of this prosecution because no similar analysis has been made of Biden's boxes.

Can I paint you as someone who wants to loudly declare he is maintaining a strong opinion based on willfull ignorance?

Because it sounds like a party press conference. Nowhere in the indictment, I think, is there a claim that he intended to use the documents..

Perhaps because it is not relevant to the charge?

Biden and Pence returned everything voluntarily when the documents were discovered. There's never been a charge that they revealed any sensitive information or refused to return anything to the government.

Because it sounds like a party press conference. Nowhere in the indictment, I think, is there a claim that he intended to use the documents.

Nor is a grand jury indictment anything more than a group agreeing that what the prosecutor has presented is something that can be prosecuted. It's an early stage.

We don't know what's in the secret documents Biden kept. With Hillary, I think the complaint was that she used a home server and copied sensitive information, then tried to destroy it when that was revealed. At least that's what I think the "lock her up" nonsense was all about.

None of this is helpful. If you want to paint me as some sort of right-wing extremist, I don't think you're right. I don't even vote Republican. But I am skeptical of this prosecution because no similar analysis has been made of Biden's boxes.
Except he did use the documents. With someone recording it. And him admitting these were Top Secret documents that he never declassified. Not to mention the direct direction to lie to the court and the ordering of the boxes to be hidden so that he can keep them, which most people would call "obstruction." This wasn't a mistake, as with Biden and Pence. This was a direct criminal enterprise.

Trump/Russia is basically true. Trump's team did coordinate with Russians. Russians did hack Hillary and the DNC. Multiple people were prosecuted for crimes related to that.

This is what a GOP Senate committee report said.

It was a bipartisan committee and there was no conclusion that Trump's team was colluding. Only that Manafort was an idiot.

It also concluded that the pee-document which started all of it was a big nothing, which is all I've said.

As for Assange and the hacking, sure. But how is that related to charging Trump with a crime, for what seems like the 20th time?

Because it sounds like a party press conference. Nowhere in the indictment, I think, is there a claim that he intended to use the documents.

Nor is a grand jury indictment anything more than a group agreeing that what the prosecutor has presented is something that can be prosecuted. It's an early stage.

We don't know what's in the secret documents Biden kept. With Hillary, I think the complaint was that she used a home server and copied sensitive information, then tried to destroy it when that was revealed. At least that's what I think the "lock her up" nonsense was all about.

None of this is helpful. If you want to paint me as some sort of right-wing extremist, I don't think you're right. I don't even vote Republican. But I am skeptical of this prosecution because no similar analysis has been made of Biden's boxes.


They recovered about 10 documents from Biden's home IIRC. It wasn't boxes. Similar for Pence. It shouldn't have happened, but both Pence and Biden immediately cooperated and invited a full search of their homes.

It's clear in the tape that's evidence that Trump held onto at least some of the documents for his own personal gain. How exactly he was going to use them we don't know, but they're not going to charge the President of the United States with something like that unless they absolutely had to. That's a life in prison type of charge that we're not going to dip our toes into charging a former president with. If this had been your or me caught with that much classified info that we had access to then you had better believe we're getting that charge.

What can fairly safely say is he had hundreds of documents throughout Mar A Lago, including some in his personal desk in his office. He had them spilling outside of boxes in the room where most were stored with an unknown number of people having access to those documents.

If it wasn't a big deal or an honest mistake in the same vein as Biden or Pence then why did he jerk the DOJ around for a year and a half? Why did he obstruct? Why did he try to hide some of them? Why has he lied about being able to declassify?

We also know, based on the indictment that this was some of the most classified stuff we have. Both ours, our allies, and our enemies nuclear and military capabilities. This is the type of stuff Trump was waiving around in his office for people to see. It's the type of stuff that gets people killed because it's so sensitive that if it leaks it's pretty easy for our enemies to figure out who our spy or source is.

Perhaps because it is not relevant to the charge?

I didn't even know it wasn't part of the charge until I read it in response to your comment, though. I was responding to Atocep's post, which did sound like a campaign press release.

Yeah, to me it's enough that he was so casual with these documents that if someone saw something sensitive and particularly useful to another country, maybe they decide to cash in? There are numerous ways what he did was potentially harmful and why it's illegal.

It was a bipartisan committee and there was no conclusion that Trump's team was colluding. Only that Manafort was an idiot.

It also concluded that the pee-document which started all of it was a big nothing, which is all I've said.

As for Assange and the hacking, sure. But how is that related to charging Trump with a crime, for what seems like the 20th time?
Except the pee document didn't start the investigation, and the investigation would have proceeded without it.

Except he did use the documents. With someone recording it. And him admitting these were Top Secret documents that he never declassified. Not to mention the direct direction to lie to the court and the ordering of the boxes to be hidden so that he can keep them, which most people would call "obstruction." This wasn't a mistake, as with Biden and Pence. This was a direct criminal enterprise.

I'm not going to defend what he's actually charged with doing. If there's something there, by all means. Give him his day in court. He'll enjoy that, apparently. If he's dumb enough to show off sensitive material that could actually hurt our country, it probably is a sign he shouldn't be running for president. Among about a million other signs. I'm not going to argue against that.

It was a bipartisan committee and there was no conclusion that Trump's team was colluding. Only that Manafort was an idiot.

It also concluded that the pee-document which started all of it was a big nothing, which is all I've said.

As for Assange and the hacking, sure. But how is that related to charging Trump with a crime, for what seems like the 20th time?

It was way more than Manafort being an idiot. From Roll Call:

The Senate Intelligence Committee report found that Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort's presence "created opportunities for Russian intelligence services to exert influence over, and acquire confidential information on, the Trump Campaign."

Manafort worked for Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska and other Kremlin-affiliated Russians to mount influence campaigns in Ukraine, and in the process also hired and worked with Konstantin Kilimnik, a former Russian intelligence officer, the report said.

"The Committee obtained some information suggesting Kilimnik may have been connected to the GRU's hack and leak operation targeting the 2016 U.S. election," the report said, referring to the Russian military intelligence service by its initials.

U.S. intelligence agencies have said hackers working for GRU were directly involved in breaking into the Democratic National Committee's servers as well as breaching the email account of John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager.

Manafort shared Trump campaign’s internal polling data with Kilimnik prior to the 2016 election. And in the months after November 2016, Manafort continued to work with Kilimnik and other Russians “to undermine evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. election,” the report said.

"Manafort's high level access and willingness to share information with individuals closely affiliated with the Russian intelligence services, particularly Kilimnik and associates of Oleg Deripaska, represented a grave counterintelligence threat," the report said.

The hack and breaching of the DNC and Podesta email account were ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the committee report said.

The stolen information was then exposed on WikiLeaks, and Trump campaign senior officials worked with Trump confidant Roger Stone to "obtain advance information about WikiLeaks's planned releases," the report said. Stone was later found guilty of lying to Congress, but Trump commuted his prison sentence.

The report said the committee uncovered previously unknown links between the Kremlin and the Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, who arranged a meeting with Trump associates at Trump Tower in June 2016. After initially saying that the meeting was about Americans adopting Russian kids, Trump and his associates admitted the Russians offered to help the Trump campaign.

Yeah, to me it's enough that he was so casual with these documents that if someone saw something sensitive and particularly useful to another country, maybe they decide to cash in? There are numerous ways what he did was potentially harmful and why it's illegal.

OK. Enough for me, too, really. But the maybe standard should apply to everyone - and that would include Hillary's home server use, wouldn't it?

Anyway, that's all I've got. Last thing I want to do is defend Trump. I'd like him out of the race, too. We need to get back to issues that actually matter.

My understanding is that Hillary had no classified documents - I believe it was determined a couple documents were mislabeled? - and she wasn't obstructing justice by trying to hide documents, etc. Trump's DOJ had 4 years to charge her. That's they didn't, tells me there's nothing.

I'd love to be wrong about the GOP and have them nominate Tim Scott.

That would restore a lot of my faith in a post-MAGA future.

I'm cool with them charging Hillary, Biden, Obama or whoever if they have the evidence they committed a crime. No skin off my back. Sorry your boy got pinched.

What Trump is accused of doing and what Biden and Hilary did with classified materials is apples and orangutangs. They're so far far apart they shouldn't even be discussed together.

Without trying to come off as an ass, if you can't see the difference between these situations then you're part of the problem. What Trump did was far closer to Robert Hanssen was doing than Hilary or Biden. He was planning to use our intelligence for his own gain. This should be the biggest presidential scandal in our nation's history, but it's difficult for many to wrap their heads around the seriousness of this issue when it's tied to the President of the United States.

Amen.

I'm just saying that at some point, drinking the Kool-Aid constantly put out by either one of the sides will make you perpetually angry. Because then you're paying attention to them, not to what actually matters.

It's actually nitwits like you who can't be bothered to apply some critical reasoning to actual facts that makes me angry, to be honest.

Because it sounds like a party press conference. Nowhere in the indictment, I think, is there a claim that he intended to use the documents.

Except, you know, the tapes where he said as much.

They literally have the man on tape saying he had the docs. knew they were classified, knew they were secrets, and showed them to people.

I mean, what is there to argue here?

The conspiracy against him to set him up all this time


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They literally have the man on tape saying he had the docs. knew they were classified, knew they were secrets, and showed them to people.

I mean, what is there to argue here?

Beats me. Sounds serious enough. I guess we'll find out. His response looks like a selective prosecution argument, but not being a lawyer, I don't know if that's compelling. He also seems to go through lawyers rather... quickly.

I was arguing that the "his own gain" piece is missing, that's all. Of course, if being able to brag that he had classified documents is gain in his world...

Interpretation is important, I think. If you want to give Hillary and Biden the full benefit of the doubt, that's fine. Certainly she claimed at one point they were all about yoga or something. But some were erased after an order to preserve them. Bleachbit sounds more effective than hiding things in the shower. I don't care. It doesn't serve anyone's interest to prosecute her.

OK. I'm done with this tangent. I was trying to answer why other candidates might want to answer the way they did. I don't see Pence and DeSantis doing anything other than sitting back after their initial statement and hoping this moves quickly either way (it won't). Because every molecule of air sucked up by Trump will benefit him the way primaries work. I'd like a real choice next November, because there's no way in the world I'd ever vote for Trump. Never have, never will. And I'm very unhappy with all the spending and inflation, so I am genuinely considering voting Republican for the first time. Sorry... I know that's like claiming I kick dogs for the heck of it when it comes to the politics here.

I'll never vote a republican in the parties current iteration, which actually hurts me because we are super fortunate to be in the tax bracket that dem policies would make us pay more. IF they come back to the middle with a guy like Hogan, Kasich, even a Sununu I would consider it.

I don't get your obsession with his gain, Who gives a shit? What he did was highly illegal and he should spend the rest of his life in prison. What his motive was is irrelevant.

I wish those middle-roaders had a chance, but they don't.

It's not an obsession. I responded to a post. The intent is important to me. Lighten up, dude.

It would be better for the country if the middle-of-the-road Republicans could regain their party. I just don't see it happening.

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Chris Christie kicking ass and taking names!

I wish those middle-roaders had a chance, but they don't.

It's not an obsession. I responded to a post. The intent is important to me. Lighten up, dude.

Maybe obsession was the wrong word. His intent may matter to you, but in the eyes of the law it is irrelevant. If I rob a bank because my kid needs a bone marrow transplant I still robbed a bank.

Love you games.

Here's a good summary from conservative Heath Mayo on how Hillary's emails are different than Trump's boxes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Let’s walk through this blow by blow, since it appears to be the last-ditch argument the GOP wants to try to hang its hat on:<br><br>Why is the Hillary situation different from the Trump situation and why is it *not* a double standard to charge Trump and not Hillary? (1/)</p>&mdash; Heath Mayo (@HeathMayo) <a href="https://twitter.com/HeathMayo/status/1667359181370802176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

If it has people here enthusiastic about an organization that reveres John Stuart Mill, Thomas Paine and Adam Smith, I'm on board.

I don't think the argument wins that potential harm through ignorance and potential harm through hubris are all that different.

What's compelling is the idea that particular documents were kept because of their sensitivity. Hadn't really thought about that. That would indicate that he thought of particular sensitive documents as souvenirs, and there would be a much greater risk of exposure. Kind of a mockery of the whole classification process.

why has it taken this long for other rep candidates to throw their non trucker hats into the ring? were they too waiting for the indictments to come rolling in?

I don't get your obsession with his gain, Who gives a shit? What he did was highly illegal and he should spend the rest of his life in prison. What his motive was is irrelevant.

Because he's a right winger who consumes a lot of right wing media and this is what they have told him to be mad about.

The whole "oh shucks I'm just asking questions" or "what about the other side?" Is so transparent. Like I get a lot of people are like that but at least own that shit instead of being scared to come out and say what you really think.

This country has been locking up people for mishandling classified information for awhile now. All of which were far less egregious. They literally arrested a guy a couple months ago for sharing much less sensitive information and he's sitting in jail with no bail. Trump's own DOJ got a woman over 5 years for mailing a classified document to a reporter. Heck, Trump has called publically for the execution of Snowden.

If you didn't support those people but are suddenly up in arms about Trump, you either just support Trump or you don't think people of his status should have to comply with the same laws as the rest of us.

For what it's worth, I think the Espionage Act is unconstitutional and he shouldn't be charged with that. But it's also tough to feel sympathy for someone who used that power while in office.

why has it taken this long for other rep candidates to throw their non trucker hats into the ring? were they too waiting for the indictments to come rolling in?

Not sure what you mean. There is already like, 10 candidates who have entered.

How's anybody taking this guy seriously?
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In South Carolina he pledged to resume shelling Fort Sumter</p>&mdash; DCLawyer (@Zuk_DC) <a href="https://twitter.com/Zuk_DC/status/1667352026949222403?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

The infatuation with Bragg is so weird because he was wildly incompetent. This county has so many war heroes you could choose to name it after.

Now that Stephen A. Smith has endorsed Christie, I figure there's no point for this to continue. Election over.

Pence also just made re-renaming Fort Liberty a campaign point.

why has it taken this long for other rep candidates to throw their non trucker hats into the ring? were they too waiting for the indictments to come rolling in?

were you waiting for Mayor Suarez from Miami, perhaps?

Here's a good summary from conservative Heath Mayo on how Hillary's emails are different than Trump's boxes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Let’s walk through this blow by blow, since it appears to be the last-ditch argument the GOP wants to try to hang its hat on:<br><br>Why is the Hillary situation different from the Trump situation and why is it *not* a double standard to charge Trump and not Hillary? (1/)</p>&mdash; Heath Mayo (@HeathMayo) <a href="https://twitter.com/HeathMayo/status/1667359181370802176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

good, clear, explainer... thank you

Bill Barr shooting down the Trumper's arguments:
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Barr debunks GOP spin: &quot;There are 2 bigs lies that are out there right now. One is that, 'oh, these other presidents took all these documents' ... and the second thing is this idea that the president has complete authority to declare any document personal is facially ridiculous&quot; <a href="https://t.co/ofAeWzVfxE">pic.twitter.com/ofAeWzVfxE</a></p>&mdash; Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) <a href="https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1667898575546732544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 11, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

Barr has really good instincts for this stuff.

If he's jumping, then the ship is sinking, IMO

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Braxton Bragg was a general in the Confederate Army. Most of his battles ended in defeat. 1860 U.S. Census: 110 people enslaved by him at his plantation.<br><br>Pence: We will end the political correctness, North Carolina will once again be home to Fort Bragg. <a href="https://t.co/ubS5aFx0pF">pic.twitter.com/ubS5aFx0pF</a></p>&mdash; Derek Friday (@DerekFriday) <a href="https://twitter.com/DerekFriday/status/1667853775535501312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 11, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Yeah. I'm politically correct. I oppose treasonous slave empires run by cowards. I'm not ashamed of that, even though a lot of people seem to think I should be.

My question for you--why aren't you politically correct?

Yeah, I'm not getting how wanting to change a base name from "Liberty" back to the name of a traitor to his country is a good campaign promise.

Trump up 61/23 over DeSantis and the rest in a CBS poll.

You can't win the nomination by defending Trump. You may not win regardless, but that's the only hope.

Barr has really good instincts for this stuff.

If he's jumping, then the ship is sinking, IMO

I'm sure he still has contacts and gets some info from the Justice Department and he's been saying this is the most serious potential charge Trump faces for months.

And if anyone thinks he's biased against Trump now that he's out of office and no longer works for him, he still stated a week ago that he'd vote from Trump if he somehow wins the nomination because he prefers his policies.

If I was President, I'd change the name to "Fort English (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_English_(Medal_of_Honor))", just to piss people off.

Super PACs are already spending millions in Iowa on presidential race (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2023/06/12/super-pacs-are-already-spending-millions-in-iowa-for-presidential-race/70269432007/)

$25 million in Super PAC spending in Iowa already.

I guess if your job involves local media advertising in early primary states or general election swing states, this isn't a waste of money. This is how you feed your kids.

But every four years we spend literally billions on ads that barely move the needle, and then we have nothing to show for it.

Almost like setting the money on fire instead of building shit with it.

If I was President, I'd change the name to "Fort English (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_English_(Medal_of_Honor))", just to piss people off.

I would change it to "Fort Nite" in order to get the gaming crowd vote.

Trump up 61/23 over DeSantis and the rest in a CBS poll.

You can't win the nomination by defending Trump. You may not win regardless, but that's the only hope.

Trump's political instincts are outstanding. He's smart enough to start attacking woke and tying it directly to desantis. Culture war is the only thing DeSantis has shown he has interest in. He's not very knowledgeable on other issues and tries to steer everything toward woke.

Nikki Haley the first one to have the balks to attack Trump on the indictment. Might cross over and vote for her in the primary.

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Asa Hutchinson has been attacking him since before it dropped, I think.

Ok, the first one polling above 1%.

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From the same CBS poll:

2024 National Republican Primary, Consider supporting/Not consider:

Trump 75%/14% (+61)
DeSantis 51%/27% (+24)
T. Scott 21%/42% (-21)
Haley 15%/57% (-42)
Ramaswamy 13%/56% (-43)
Pence 16%/60% (-44)
Elder 9%/61% (-52)
Hutchinson 6%/73% (-67)
Burgum 4%/73% (-69)
Christie 7%/79% (-72)

It's over and Trump is going to be the nominee.

Tim Scott too has "read the indictment" and calls it a serious case with serious allegations". Until tomorrow when all the stuff happens to Trump and he'll change his tune again.

I actually think if trump wins the nom he&rsquo;ll get crushed in the election as no one middle will vote for him


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Trump's political instincts are outstanding. He's smart enough to start attacking woke and tying it directly to desantis. Culture war is the only thing DeSantis has shown he has interest in. He's not very knowledgeable on other issues and tries to steer everything toward woke.

Except that now trump is on the record saying he'll do it bigger, better, faster and more extreme. That he'll do it "right".

I actually think if trump wins the nom he&rsquo;ll get crushed in the election as no one middle will vote for him


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I would love to think that you're right on this one.

I just don't see which states Trump can pick up that he didn't win last time.


Lets assume he can flip Wisconsin, which was fairly close. Trump would have to win 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Georgia. Those are 4 states that Trump candidates got absolutely thumped in 2022.


A lot can change but I just don't see where he is going to make up that ground.

Strong third party candidate could hand Trump every stare that was a close lost. That is the biggest threat.

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Except that now trump is on the record saying he'll do it bigger, better, faster and more extreme. That he'll do it "right".

I should clarify that his political instincts for what plays well on the right are outstanding. Those same things are what kills him in the general.

I just don't see which states Trump can pick up that he didn't win last time.


Lets assume he can flip Wisconsin, which was fairly close. Trump would have to win 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Georgia. Those are 4 states that Trump candidates got absolutely thumped in 2022.


A lot can change but I just don't see where he is going to make up that ground.

I don't know about Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised is Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia could all be in play. There are some true believers out there. They know this might be the last chance.

It's over and Trump is going to be the nominee.

He might well be the nominee, but it's never over at this stage. Polls don't start mattering for several months yet.

He might well be the nominee, but it's never over at this stage. Polls don't start mattering for several months yet.

You honestly think this is about polls?

When I'm responding to a post that specifically cites a poll, yes I do.

I think it's most likely that Trump will be the candidate for president, and he will lose. (I'm going to put "Maybe the horse will learn how to sing" caveats on all of it. He may die of natural causes beforehand. He may literally shoot someone on 5th avenue.)

I don't see how he wins (fairly, that is), in that he's going to be nothing BUT the base for support, and that's not enough.

When I'm responding to a post that specifically cites a poll, yes I do.

Fair enough but the polls don't matter. They are a cult of stupids and with 10 other people in the primary he is guarantied to win it.

I don't know about Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised is Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia could all be in play. There are some true believers out there. They know this might be the last chance.

He already has the true believers in his camp. Where are the people who voted Biden or stayed home in 2020 he would need to flip? They don't exist. Not to mention there has been 4 years of his base dying off or being turned off by him and 4 years of kids coming of voting age, most of whom hate him. Throw in Dobbs and there isn't a lane for him.

There are many times where the candidate people were sure would win a nomination, didn't. Right now lots of people have opinions about how it will turn out, but nobody knows.

BTW, am I the only one who noticed Presidential is misspelled in the title? (Presdential)

He already has the true believers in his camp. Where are the people who voted Biden or stayed home in 2020 he would need to flip? They don't exist. Not to mention there has been 4 years of his base dying off or being turned off by him and 4 years of kids coming of voting age, most of whom hate him. Throw in Dobbs and there isn't a lane for him.


I personally can't disagree with any of this, but I thought the same thing in 2020 and his stellar governance somehow won him 11 million more votes than 2016.

He might well be the nominee, but it's never over at this stage. Polls don't start mattering for several months yet.

I agree that I would not conclude anything this early in this particular cycle. Because Trump is a candidate, it can go all sort of ways. I definitely do not believe he has it in the bag yet, a lot to play out.

However, polls (even early ones the year before) are somewhat predictive.

We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive. | FiveThirtyEight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-analyzed-40-years-of-primary-polls-even-early-on-theyre-fairly-predictive/)
In the chart below, for the calendar year before the primaries began, we averaged each candidate’s polls in the first half of the year (January through June) and in the second half of the year (July through December), and then plotted those two averages against the share of votes each person won in the next year’s primaries, for every competitive nomination process from 1972 to 2016. The correlation is pretty strong for both halves of the year,2 though polls from the second half of the year matched the outcomes a little better, which is not surprising — after all, those polls were conducted closer to the start of primary season.

Sure, but they're a lot more reliable starting around Februaryish the last time I looked of the year of the election. There's a lot more moving around prior to that. Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, Giuliani, Gingrich all had sizable leads early on and were not nominated. That's quite a few examples in not a very long timeframe. Plus there's also the factor that polls are somewhat less reliable than they used to be. I think we're mostly just possibly miscommunicating on the level of degree here. I may have overstated it in what I said; I don't think they are useless, I just don't think they are anything to base certainty on, which is where this conversation started.

If someone says Trump is the favorite, I agree with them. If they use words such as have been used on this forum such as 'it's over' and 'guarantee', I think they're wrong and are presuming far, far too much on the future.

None of those people you listed have ever been leaders of a cult.

BTW, am I the only one who noticed Presidential is misspelled in the title? (Presdential)edit: got it

Tim Scott exists as a viable candidate.

GOP voters have the chance to make him their nominee. Absolutely nothing is stopping them.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DeSantis supporters are getting frustrated w/ candidates they believe are running for veep. <a href="https://t.co/SxGR1kJ8w4">https://t.co/SxGR1kJ8w4</a> <a href="https://t.co/5CsRo7VMHT">pic.twitter.com/5CsRo7VMHT</a></p>&mdash; Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1668581738065321985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 13, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Come on, Ron. This is weak sauce. "We'd be in a better position to win if there were less competition."

I mean, really? You're already making excuses for South Carolina?

Trump could go away tomorrow, and I'd still wonder about Ron's ability to handle anything other than a kid gloves primary.

It's also weak since Christie is running just so he can be Ron's AG.

Another one. More the merrier (for now).

I got to believe he's positioning for VP, Cabinet or 2028.

Miami GOP Mayor Francis Suarez has filed federal paperwork to join the crowded Republican field for president, becoming the third candidate from Florida running for the GOP nomination.

I'm starting to wonder if there's a legit path to victory, based simply on Biden/Trump fatigue, for whatever non-Trump candidate that manages to secure the GOP nomnation.

For all of their attempts to latch onto MAGA-in-a-bottle for the primary, just being somethng different might pay the most return in the general. Still sucks to be Mike Pence, of course. Not Trump, but still covered in his stink

I think there is, but I also think they'd have to be starting that now/soon, and be getting a significant amount of support for doing it in the early primaries.

On the DeSantis thing, it's unfair to blame Ron himself for something said by a 'person within DeSantis world', whatever that means. If he said it or his campaign manager said it, that's something else. It's a 'wow, the sun rose today' level revelation to note that a supporter of a candidate said something off.

I'm starting to wonder if there's a legit path to victory, based simply on Biden/Trump fatigue, for whatever non-Trump candidate that manages to secure the GOP nomnation.

For all of their attempts to latch onto MAGA-in-a-bottle for the primary, just being somethng different might pay the most return in the general. Still sucks to be Mike Pence, of course. Not Trump, but still covered in his stink


I think DeSantis had a chance if he declared right after the midterms and tried to bury Trump as a loser. That was a window when it seemed like the party was looking for an off-ramp from him and he was at his lowest. You heard about how Fox and other propaganda outlets were going to move on from him.



Ron waited and it allowed Trump to regain his footing. He also let Trump just attack him for months without a response.


Trump wins the primary in a landslide now but I do think there was a window where a smart campaign by DeSantis could have made it very interesting.

Absolutely not!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New: Asa Hutchinson has asked the RNC to amend its loyalty pledge so candidates won’t have to promise to potentially support a convicted felon. In a call today, RNC officials said absolutely not. <a href="https://t.co/9mSD6pyFug">https://t.co/9mSD6pyFug</a></p>&mdash; Natalie Allison (@natalie_allison) <a href="https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1669474801616924672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I'm starting to wonder if there's a legit path to victory, based simply on Biden/Trump fatigue, for whatever non-Trump candidate that manages to secure the GOP nomnation.

Only DeSantis ever had a shot, the rest couldn't inspire starving buzzards to fresh meat.

To be clear, my post wasn't about beating Trump in a primary, it was assuming Trump loses that nomination in some other fashion (and to be even more clear, I'm not arguing the likelihood of that happening, I'm just saying IF it did, for whatever/any reason).

I think Trump's base has demonstrated the memory and patience of a fly and though they seem to be strongly coalesced behind Trump and only Trump I think they'd just as easily fall behind practically anybody else as long as Trump was truly removed from the picture & folks who may have thought they didn't care one-way-or-the-other would be motivated by the simple offer of something different, entirely regardless of facts/policy/primary/debate.

To be clear, my post wasn't about beating Trump in a primary, it was assuming Trump loses that nomination in some other fashion (and to be even more clear, I'm not arguing the likelihood of that happening, I'm just saying IF it did, for whatever/any reason).

I think Trump's base has demonstrated the memory and patience of a fly and though they seem to be strongly coalesced behind Trump and only Trump I think they'd just as easily fall behind practically anybody else as long as Trump was truly removed from the picture & folks who may have thought they didn't care one-way-or-the-other would be motivated by the simple offer of something different, entirely regardless of facts/policy/primary/debate.

Also, a lot of supporters would immediately convince themselves that they never really supported Trump anyway.

I guess the wrinkle there is how Trump chooses to leave the picture. If he actively tells supporters not to vote for anyone else that would probably still carry enough weight to fuck things up....and be hilarious.

Trump will now need the R nominee to win the General and pardon him, so he has to support them if he loses the primary.

the maximum chaos option: Biden vs Not-Trump (R) vs No Labels vs Trump Independent (to spite the R who beat him)

No Labels is saying they will only run a candidate if Trump is the nominee. Dead give away on what they are doing, isn't it?

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According to Navigator Research, which 538 rates as a 0.7 point bias toward dems:

From early April to now the idea of "Make America Florida" has gone from -5 with Independents to -31. And from +52 to +28 with Republicans.

The overall opinion of DeSantis has shifted -17 with Dems, -18 with Independents, and -19 with Republicans.

Trump will now need the R nominee to win the General and pardon him, so he has to support them if he loses the primary.

I just don't think that is in his DNA. It is far more likely he will scream the primary was rigged by RINOS and he will disenfranchise his base.

How much of Desantis fall is "He's taking on disney" or "He's taking on Woke, but not winning", and how much is "He spoke ill of God-Emperor Trump BURN THE HERETIC"

thestreet.com (https://www.thestreet.com/travel/disney-gets-a-big-win-in-battle-with-desantis?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO)

(basically, after all of this, Disney's approval is unchanged, but Desantis went from +2 favorability to -19. Personally, I think it's the the 2nd and the third more then the "Hey, they're taking on Disney. BOO!" factor)

He hasn't said anything negative about trump. If anything he's been too subservient while trump just belittles him. I don't think his fight withr Disney can affect Disney's favorability in any way. It's only going to hurt DeSantis.

More accurately on my side, his supporters:

"“The Trump team’s obsession with men’s genitalia is more perverted than a woke grooming book.”

I think Desantis' drop is largely due to people getting to see more of him. Personality wise, he seems to have a lot in common with Ted Cruz. He's just unlikeable, about himself, and always thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He has zero charisma and, politically, doesn't seem to know how to do anything other than fight culture wars.

He also has that bully impulse when dealing with the media asking questions he doesn't like. Reminds me a lot of former KY governor Matt Bevin. I think for anyone who is not aligned with his side, that comes off as very unlikeable and vindictive - or basically, Trump.

I suspect a lot of people who gave DeSantis a look over the Disney thing were already Trump supporters and were willing to give the new guy a look if he could do something. But when the Disney stuff ended up being a bunch of hot air and he didn't have a lot to keep it in the airwaves, they just went back to Trump and DeSantis got to reap all the negatives of taking on Disney in the first place.

I think Desantis' drop is largely due to people getting to see more of him. Personality wise, he seems to have a lot in common with Ted Cruz. He's just unlikeable, about himself, and always thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He has zero charisma and, politically, doesn't seem to know how to do anything other than fight culture wars.

I've heard a fair amount of this, but I don't understand it. I think to the degree this is true, it's just as much a problem and in most cases moreso for Trump. I.e. I think Trump is far more unlikeable than DeSantis.

I've heard a fair amount of this, but I don't understand it. I think to the degree this is true, it's just as much a problem and in most cases moreso for Trump. I.e. I think Trump is far more unlikeable than DeSantis.

Most people, even dems that have been around him, will admit Trump is charismatic. You see that word attached to him quite a bit. Never for DeSantis, and the Republicans that worked with him congress that I've seen quoted all seemed to hate the guy.

Huh. I don't see Trump as charismatic at all. I guess whatever other people see in him, I don't. I'd much rather listen to DeSantis speak than him. :confused:

Trump was charismatic enough to get a television show broadcast on a major network. Can you imagine DeSantis getting one? Trump's spiel worked because he was a known entity. DeSantis is not. I think the Ted Cruz comparison is spot on. The more you hear from him, the more his face is punchable.

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So DeSantis has gone to Massachusetts looking for folks for his campaign (the Politico stinger for the section about it was "Make Massachusetts Florida again", which gave me the shivers and a verbal "NO!"

Now he's gone to San Francisco and released avide where he said he saw "so much riff-raff around the area".

Dude. You are the Governor of florida. Your state is famous for the "Florida Man does something extremely dumb" meme. Your state literally is what people get in their head when people start talking about questionable life decisions.

edit: From the Politco article

"DeSantis’ campaign has activated volunteers, including MassGOP Vice Chair Jay Fleitman and state committeewoman Mary Lou Stuart, to build a supporter network in Massachusetts."

considering the GOP is an afterthought in MA (the D's have a 134-25 majority, with 1 independent in the state house, and 36-3 in the state senate), I wouldn't be looking towards Mass GOP to walk your dog, never mind build you a network for supporters for Super Tuesday.

Smacks of him wanting to be seen "going into the lion's den". Because he'd have much more success in, say, rural (or even outer suburban) Illinois, even though it too is a deep blue state.

It could also just be a strategy for getting delegates in the primary. Obama had a similar strategy where he targeted areas of the country that were not friendly toward Democrats. A delegate in Mass counts the same as a delegate in Alabama.

Moderate Republican/anti-Trumper Will Hurd is now joining the field.

Moderate Republican/anti-Trumper Will Hurd is now joining the field.


Knew Will from my days at aTm. Fantastic human being. Just born in the wrong time to be a Republican with a brain. Was disappointed he bent to some of the Orange Fuck's early bullshit but was glad to see him eventually stand up to him. Not sure this Prez move is his best option but we're in crazy times these days.

He seems like a decent guy, but he won't win a single delegate.

I wish Will would go after Cruz instead. I think he could easily primary him just based on likeability alone.

DeSantis on immigration. Same old Trump stuff.

In his first major policy proposal as a presidential candidate, DeSantis called for an end to “catch and release” — a practice of discharging undocumented migrants into their American homes while they await court hearings. He called for asylum seekers along the U.S.-Mexico border to be blocked entry while their claims are processed. And he said, as Trump has previously, that children born in the United States to parents living here illegally should no longer be granted citizenship, a proposal that stands to face significant legal challenges.

But DeSantis also specifically criticized Trump on his signature policy issue from 2016, an unfinished U.S.-Mexico border wall, saying that if elected, he would complete it.
But wait, something new ... deadly force.

“If somebody were breaking into your house to do something bad, you would respond with force. Yet why don’t we do that at the Southern border?“ DeSantis said during a press conference following the speech. “If the cartels are cutting through the border wall, trying to run product into this country, they’re going to end up stone cold dead as a result of that bad decision and if you do that one time, you are not going to see them mess with our wall ever again.“
I absolutely have no problems shooting cartel members. The real problem is distinguishing cartel members from regular undocumented.
Let's hope we have the new immigration bill by then.

I'm sure the guy whose state literally has crops rotting in the fields because he drove away all the immigrant labor has some stellar ideas regarding immigration reform.

Cartel members aren't cutting through our border fences to smuggle their product. They're using ports of entry. Just more dumb statements that either ignore or don't understand where the problem is.

Cartel members aren't cutting through our border fences to smuggle their product. They're using ports of entry. Just more dumb statements that either ignore or don't understand where the problem is.

Just feeding the maga wet dreams of shooting brown people.

If one agent can monitor .5 miles of wall, that would mean basically doubling the number of agents.

The right has a lot of non-serious ideas.

Cartel members aren't cutting through our border fences to smuggle their product. They're using ports of entry. Just more dumb statements that either ignore or don't understand where the problem is.

Report is older but call it 10-15% at non-legal ports of entry.

Fact-checking Trump team: most drugs enter U.S. through ports of entry (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/16/fact-check-mike-pence-donald-trump-drugs-crossing-southern-border-wall/2591279002/)
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics, 90 percent of heroin seized along the border, 88 percent of cocaine, 87 percent of methamphetamine, and 80 percent of fentanyl in the first 11 months of the 2018 fiscal year was caught trying to be smuggled in at legal crossing points.

The DeSantis campaign is such a mess. Trump doesn't hate gay people enough is a terrible message even for the primary.

I think I have received in the mail every day this past week a mailing DeSantis or his Super PAC where they are tearing down gay and "woke" people. I honestly don't understand how he thinks he can win a general election where the people he wants to vote for him are even more far right than MAGA. Does he just think he's going to outlaw the Democratic Party and every one but white Christian straight men?

Running one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen. The only thing he knows how to do is say "woke". He literally tries to tie everything to it.

His war on woke is going to look awful 6-8 years from now when we can get solid economic data to look back at.

I think I have received in the mail every day this past week a mailing DeSantis or his Super PAC where they are tearing down gay and "woke" people. I honestly don't understand how he thinks he can win a general election where the people he wants to vote for him are even more far right than MAGA. Does he just think he's going to outlaw the Democratic Party and every one but white Christian straight men?

Outlaw or shoot/permit to be shot.

DeSantis is one of the most awkward public figures we have ever seen. 100% he is on the spectrum. I suspect his wife is actually using him to try and gain power.

Can't remember seeing a big name politician crashing and burning this bad. Maybe the Trump indictments will change things but he sure feels like Bobby Jindal right now. Guy isn't going to make it to Super Tuesday at this rate.

Jeb!

Jeb!
That is the perfect comparison. Florida governor who raised a bunch of money and had high expectations. But then didn't have the personality to run nationally.

"please clap"

“Aides said he talked about Ivanka Trump’s breasts, her backside, and what it might be like to have sex with her, remarks that once led John Kelly to remind the president that Ivanka was his daughter,” Taylor wrote, recalling an alleged exchange with Kelly, who served as Trump’s chief of staff between 2017 and 2019.


“Afterward, Kelly retold that story to me in visible disgust. Trump, he said, was ‘a very, very evil man.’”

{this man wants your votes}

“Aides said he talked about Ivanka Trump’s breasts, her backside, and what it might be like to have sex with her, remarks that once led John Kelly to remind the president that Ivanka was his daughter,” Taylor wrote, recalling an alleged exchange with Kelly, who served as Trump’s chief of staff between 2017 and 2019.


“Afterward, Kelly retold that story to me in visible disgust. Trump, he said, was ‘a very, very evil man.’”

{this man wants your votes}


The 2024 GOP platform will be pro incest before they get offended by anything like this.

heh Lindsay Graham got boo'ed and called traitor at a Trump rally 15 minutes from where he was born in SC today. :)

DeSantis is a very successful GOP governor. He's implemented a lot of pro-GOP policies and gotten re-elected easily in one of the biggest and most important states in the country.

But his presidential campaign seems to be a series of mistakes and missteps.

I wonder if the right analogy is how sometimes a coach is a great coordinator but a lousy head coach.

DeSantis is a very successful GOP governor. He's implemented a lot of pro-GOP policies and gotten re-elected easily in one of the biggest and most important states in the country.

But his presidential campaign seems to be a series of mistakes and missteps.

I wonder if the right analogy is how sometimes a coach is a great coordinator but a lousy head coach.

Because of the margin of his win and his apparent reputation, a year ago I wondered about him. Could he finally get his party past Trump?

Then he took on Disney. OK, whatever. People I know with kids are more concerned about the price of a visit than their kids being taken aside and groomed by Goofy. Seemed like a bad issue to hang a campaign on.

Now he's just trying to be Trump, but without the charisma. He's got a nickname for Trump ("Old Orange"), which feels like he took a focus group and picked the nickname that evoked the most halfhearted chuckles without offending anyone. And he's all-in on culture wars, which helps our country about as much as you'd think it would.

I think he's done. Complete self-implosion, coming at Trump from the wrong side with the wrong message. He got the most pictures marching in the right parades in New Hampshire this week, but it won't be enough.

I have no idea what the rest of them are doing. Scott got a boost for standing up to the women of the View. But that's not a presidential campaign. I think Haley is in Witness Protection right now. Pence is doing exactly what he needs to do to finish in third place down the road. And then there are a bunch of others fighting to claim a stray delegate or two. Even the Professor and Mary Ann had a better chance of winning.

Meanwhile, Trump draws 50,000 in South Carolina where they boo the local senator who isn't even running this time... the primary system has to be the worst system imaginable for picking leaders.

Because of the margin of his win and his apparent reputation, a year ago I wondered about him. Could he finally get his party past Trump?

Then he took on Disney. OK, whatever. People I know with kids are more concerned about the price of a visit than their kids being taken aside and groomed by Goofy. Seemed like a bad issue to hang a campaign on.

Now he's just trying to be Trump, but without the charisma. He's got a nickname for Trump ("Old Orange"), which feels like he took a focus group and picked the nickname that evoked the most halfhearted chuckles without offending anyone. And he's all-in on culture wars, which helps our country about as much as you'd think it would.

I think he's done. Complete self-implosion, coming at Trump from the wrong side with the wrong message. He got the most pictures marching in the right parades in New Hampshire this week, but it won't be enough.

I have no idea what the rest of them are doing. Scott got a boost for standing up to the women of the View. But that's not a presidential campaign. I think Haley is in Witness Protection right now. Pence is doing exactly what he needs to do to finish in third place down the road. And then there are a bunch of others fighting to claim a stray delegate or two. Even the Professor and Mary Ann had a better chance of winning.

Meanwhile, Trump draws 50,000 in South Carolina where they boo the local senator who isn't even running this time... the primary system has to be the worst system imaginable for picking leaders.

It's crazy because Trump has mostly been sleepwalking so far and has sounded more like the typical politician that the MAGA voters usually hate this time around.

There's a path to a non-MAGA GOP win, but it's going to take charisma and the courage to go directly at Trump, highlight his weaknesses and point out that he's lost far more than he's won and taken the party backwards in some areas. Unfortunately, no one seems to check one of those boxes let alone both. Well, maybe Christie for the first one but he lacks charisma and was a damaged politician before this primary.

DeSantis is a very successful GOP governor. He's implemented a lot of pro-GOP policies and gotten re-elected easily in one of the biggest and most important states in the country.

But his presidential campaign seems to be a series of mistakes and missteps.

I wonder if the right analogy is how sometimes a coach is a great coordinator but a lousy head coach.

I'm not sure his success stands for very long. He's traded short term wins for likely long term losses because he saw the job as a stepping stone to the white house. The longer he stays on the job, the more his policies get undone by the courts and the more likely he is to face the long term damage he's done to those short term wins.

He's also making enemies within his own party in the state because he's prioritized his agenda over the party's wants/needs.

Kansas 2.0?

DeSantis is a very successful GOP governor. He's implemented a lot of pro-GOP policies and gotten re-elected easily in one of the biggest and most important states in the country.

But his presidential campaign seems to be a series of mistakes and missteps.

I wonder if the right analogy is how sometimes a coach is a great coordinator but a lousy head coach.

If it is not completely obvious from my postings about him, I am not a fan. But it would be foolish to say that DeSantis is not a very successful governor. The issue is I can't say that he is a successful governor because he is Ron DeSantis. Think about it, before DeSantis there was Rick Scott. Before Scott was Charlie Crist and before that was Jeb Bush. Anyone noticing a pattern? All of those GOPers were considered successful governors who won two terms except for Crist who had the gall to support Obama's stimulus plan and left the party. All except Crist have at some point been considered to have at least a decent shot at the GOP presidential nomination. Maybe winning the governor's mansion in Florida has little less to do with the GOP candidates for governor and more about the dumpster fire that is the Democratic Party in Florida.

I am not saying that the GOP could put anybody on the ballot and win. I am saying as long as the Dems just throw anybody on the ballot every four years with no real plan as to who and why, the GOP might be able to just put anybody on the ballot and continue to win without much need to run a proper campaign.

DeSantis is cooked and I think that even if Trump dropped out, died, or whatever, he would still struggle to win the nomination. He just has no charisma and his campaign focus has been on weird cultural issues that are mostly for online folks.

Most people in the real world don't care about Disney culture wars. The brand is actually seen positively by most people. Even for someone like me who is online a lot, I don't even know what he's angry with them about. It's just such a bizarre issue to build your entire campaign around. At least when Trump ran in 2016, he had some issues that people might care about (drain the swamp, build the wall).

As for other candidates, Haley and Pence seem to be trapped in 2008 Republican politics and just don't understand that they are not what the party wants. Scott seems hellbent on angling for a VP spot while Christie seems to be in it for spite.

My guess is Trump wraps this up pretty early and I can see DeSantis pulling out right after New Hampshire. It's tough to compete with Trump when your base are people who post on 4chan and closeted men.

But his presidential campaign seems to be a series of mistakes and missteps.


Whoever is running his campaign is a complete disaster. I still look back at his big campaign launch which he decided to do on Twitter in audio format for like 80k people.

Whoever is running his campaign is a complete disaster. I still look back at his big campaign launch which he decided to do on Twitter in audio format for like 80k people.

It has been widely reported that Casey DeSantis is the show runner for his campaign. I still wonder if this is a situation where she is a easy target to blame because the campaign is flailing and of course it would be the wife's fault. However, whenever I have hear her speak on Ron's behalf, it is clear that many of the talking points are more important to her. Maybe they are her talking points as opposed to his which would make it more understandable that she can express them more passionately. Maybe that is the charisma that people are talking about and she has that while Ron does not. Either way, she feels more authentic and intentional about the points.

It reminds of a spouse having their partner call a business to complain about a shoddy product or service the second partner has no idea had occurred. Then the first partner ends up standing next to the partner on the phone aggressively gesturing and angrily whispering the things that should and should not be said to said business but refuses to take the phone to voice those complaints themselves.

Doug Burgum, in an attempt to get to the small donor number needed for the Iowa debates, is giving away $20 gift cards for each $1 donation. For the first time in my life, I donated to a GOP candidate.

I got an email from Country First/Adam Kinzinger asking us to donate $1 to Chris Christie's campaign just so he can get on the stage and talk shit about Trump since none of the others will.

The RFK/climate change farting argument story is certainly something.

It reminds of a spouse having their partner call a business to complain about a shoddy product or service the second partner has no idea had occurred. Then the first partner ends up standing next to the partner on the phone aggressively gesturing and angrily whispering the things that should and should not be said to said business but refuses to take the phone to voice those complaints themselves.

I feel personally attacked