Will Carolina pick Luck at #1 ?

Assuming he goes pro.

Shouldn't we see if he is going pro first?

ESPN.com has an article says 2 high-ranking Carolina people are saying they will pick him.

They would be idiots not to.

Most lopsided poll ever? :D

Where is Ignacious Trout?

Likely to be the highest graded QB prospect since Elway.

Likely to be the highest graded QB prospect since Elway.

Including Manning?

unless they got a king's ransom for the pick.

Including Manning?

Yep, from what I heard the other day. You remember of course that there were many who had Leaf graded higher because of his "physical ability" edge, and people also questioned Peyton's lack of ability to win the big game at Tennessee.

Thinking about it, I also remember mention of Palmer grading out to be almost flawless as well.

They better.

Good thing they drafted Clausen.

What's the difference between "no" and "pick another player"?

The no option is if they decide to let the time run out without making a pick

Ah, the "Minnesota Viking maneuver".

This isn't a real poll without a trout option.

For anyone who is on the fence with this poll:

Sources: Carolina Panthers to pick Andrew Luck if Stanford QB is in NFL draft - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=5988254)

as a Carolina fan, they better take him! Fuck Jimmy Clausen pickles.

No doubt whatsoever, if he goes pro. In fact, I'd venture that they won't even listen to trade offers (from say, the 49ers) to move down - Jerry Richardson is an ornery old goat.

Luck should have his dad solicit a bonus offer from the Panthers. Of course, he won't know anything about it.

How did the Panthers go from being able to run at will, to sucking overnight? I know they had some injuries. But I think Luck is in a pretty good position there as they have some semblance of a left side of a line.

No doubt whatsoever, if he goes pro. In fact, I'd venture that they won't even listen to trade offers (from say, the 49ers) to move down - Jerry Richardson is an ornery old goat.

To trade from 7 to go up to 1 is going to be painful as hell.

To trade from 7 to go up to 1 is going to be painful as hell.


In any other year probably not.....

How did the Panthers go from being able to run at will, to sucking overnight? I know they had some injuries. But I think Luck is in a pretty good position there as they have some semblance of a left side of a line.

Passing for nearly 700 yards less than the next worst team in the league despite being behind all the time makes it pretty hard to open up the run game.

Seriously, Carolina threw for 2289 yards this year... that's only 143 per game. Next worst, Arizona at 2921/183 per game.

For anyone who is on the fence with this poll:

Sources: Carolina Panthers to pick Andrew Luck if Stanford QB is in NFL draft - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=5988254)

I would think that even if internally they were sure Clausen was the next Brady, they would still float this out there to get him to declare and improve the value of that pick.

Passing for nearly 700 yards less than the next worst team in the league despite being behind all the time makes it pretty hard to open up the run game.

Seriously, Carolina threw for 2289 yards this year... that's only 143 per game. Next worst, Arizona at 2921/183 per game.

Trust me. I played Steve Smith 13 weeks in a row figuring they would snap out of it.

i don't know much about either team but as a casual observer it seems like car is in full on rebuild mode whereas sf has a core of young players minus a qb.

sf could/should come strong with an offer.

In any other year probably not.....

The Atlanta/San Diego trade sent 4 players total to San Diego and Atlanta moved from 5 to 1. So you are looking at bumping it up past 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks with a 4th player.

I think the two biggest factors are whether there is an NFL lockout and if Harbarough leaves.

i don't know much about either team but as a casual observer it seems like car is in full on rebuild mode whereas sf has a core of young players minus a qb.

sf could/should come strong with an offer.


Carolina on the O side has 2 B= A- RBs
An overall B- line
1 aging but still B= receiver and no QB.
If they had another receiver it may be interesting to see what Clausen/Moore or Luck could do, but as it sits today I luterally watched teams triple cover Steve Smith with quarter help over the top and dare them to throw it some where else. usually Clausen/Moore did..to the defense

There are reports out there that Stanford is about to announce that Luck has decided to return to school next year. Shocking with the potential rookie salary cap coming down the pike.

There are reports out there that Stanford is about to announce that Luck has decided to return to school next year. Shocking with the potential rookie salary cap coming down the pike.

He must really not want to play in Carolina.

There are reports out there that Stanford is about to announce that Luck has decided to return to school next year. Shocking with the potential rookie salary cap coming down the pike.

The sense I get is that the salary cap (if enacted) would be in effect for all future draftees. I think (though I might be mistaken) that the lockout will occur after the draft, but before anyone is signed.

Hasn't he always said he was going to get his degree?

And he's staying.

Andrew Luck skipping NFL draft, will return to Stanford Cardinal - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5995754)

Ok, Skins, start losing!

Well I know who Carolina won't be picking now. :lol:

I see absolutely no logical reason for this decision.

Ok, Lions, start losing!

Fixed :D

I see absolutely no logical reason for this decision.

Rich family, rookie cap likely to be in place anyway, recent history of major injury not reducing chances of being selected #1.

OK, Troy, I agree - let Tebow start all 16 games next year!

Looks like the Panthers are out of Luck.

Looks like the Panthers are out of Luck.

Haha

I see nothing wrong with Luck wanting to stay another season. Its not a bad thing to have that Stanford degree sitting around in case the NFL didnt work out.

The sense I get is that the salary cap (if enacted) would be in effect for all future draftees. I think (though I might be mistaken) that the lockout will occur after the draft, but before anyone is signed.

A full season of lockout has got to be a nightmare scenario for 2011 late round picks who will have twice the number of players to compete against for roster spots, and it will really suck if somebody gets a serious injury in the meantime and never sees a dime. Do you head to Canada and play in the CFL for a salary and risk an injury there or do you just sit on your ass for a year?

Definitely not a good time to be a senior who could have come out last year. A lot of the scenarios that were being floated back then seem to be coming true.

Haha

I see nothing wrong with Luck wanting to stay another season. Its not a bad thing to have that Stanford degree sitting around in case the NFL didnt work out.

This. I wonder how much this plays into Harbaugh's decision. Assuming he wants the NFL and not Michigan, there will be NFL jobs next year and his stock could even go up with Luck back and the recruiting class they are bringing in.

Rich family, rookie cap likely to be in place anyway, recent history of major injury not reducing chances of being selected #1.

Haha

I see nothing wrong with Luck wanting to stay another season. Its not a bad thing to have that Stanford degree sitting around in case the NFL didnt work out.

Are you guys really serious?

Even if there IS a rookie cap, what is the BENEFIT to staying. Don't put that "if an NFL career" doesn't work out carrot out there.

Let's say by some chance Luck needs something to fallback on if he is 3 years and done and can't manage the millions he'll get in a bonus......

Do you really think that Andrew Luck's backup life is significantly different if he finishes his 4th year at Stanford or goes to the NFL and finishes his degree wherever in the offseason?!

Jake Locker tells you to go, silly guy. You can always get your degree, leaving tens of millions on the table is absurd.

fuck. this hurts the panthers. who the hell do we pick now.

Its not a bad thing to have that Stanford degree sitting around in case the NFL didnt work out.If it doesn't work out, I'm fairly sure he'll be able to afford to pay the rest of his tuition.

If the Mayans are right about the 2012 Apocolypse, then Luck is going to be really pissed about missing that one year in the NFL.

Brian Brohm just set his degree on fire.

Are you guys really serious?

Even if there IS a rookie cap, what is the BENEFIT to staying. Don't put that "if an NFL career" doesn't work out carrot out there.

Let's say by some chance Luck needs something to fallback on if he is 3 years and done and can't manage the millions he'll get in a bonus......

Do you really think that Andrew Luck's backup life is significantly different if he finishes his 4th year at Stanford or goes to the NFL and finishes his degree wherever in the offseason?!

You asked if there was a logical reason for him staying. There is, you just don't like it. When you're already financially secure, things like "I'd like to take another shot at winning a championship with my friends" start to make sense.

Do we really understand the circumstances of his life?

The kids wants to stay. Good for him.

Do we really understand the circumstances of his life?

The kids wants to stay. Good for him.

+1

You asked if there was a logical reason for him staying. There is, you just don't like it. When you're already financially secure, things like "I'd like to take another shot at winning a championship with my friends" start to make sense.

Do we really understand the circumstances of his life?

The kids wants to stay. Good for him.

No. But from the perspective of an economist of you're the surefire #1 overall pick and lockout, rookie cap or not, you're guaranteed tens of millions of dollars for doing nothing save for existing (or you know, failing the Wonderlic or a bad workout or Len Bias or something unlikely) then you take the money on the table rather than gamble it away.

No one begrudges the kid his choices, but it's a conversation in the gee whiz public domain and we have an example of a guy who's already done that and it's unlikely to work out very well for him (read: Jake Locker) and while he might have few regrets, there aren't many lotto jackpot opportunities like that before you turn 25 and so, common sense says take it if you can.

Shrug.

Not every decision is fueled by economics.

Not every decision is fueled by economics.

True, but most smart decisions are.

wow, im shocked... this guy should lose his #1 pick status just for being a frigging moron.

True, but most smart decisions are.

Like hitching your future to Chad Henne?

True, but most smart decisions are.

I guess your definition of smart might not be the same as his, or mine, or others.

There is the chance that there is no NFL season next year right? Maybe just a strike shortened season?

I doubt there will be, but would you rather play another year in college or go pro and not play at all which also means you don't get paid.

I love that he is staying.

Why come back? Maybe he wants to finish what he started. No matter who the coach is (unless it's RR) he'll be on a team that will be a contender to win a national championship next season. He'll also be the frontrunner for that trophy I see almost every day when I come to work. Maybe he truly wants to get a degree also. It's his life. He'll be extremely wealthy in a few years anyway.

I am sure he will be taking out one of those insurance policies against a career threatening injury.

True, but most smart decisions are.

I dunno, the decision to stay in school worked out pretty good for Sam Bradford.

Peyton Manning.

I like that he is staying - I always like to see guys come back. Not sure why.

That said (grrr) it's a huge risk. Circumstances are somewhat different in this particular situation, however.

$70k a year (http://www.sparkpeople.com/mypage_public_journal_individual.asp?blog_id=3684530) is all you need for happiness, baby! :)

Leinhart stayed, too. Of course, that's easily explained several years later...

I dunno, the decision to stay in school worked out pretty good for Sam Bradford.

Because he got injured in his first game and did not put out more tape for scouts to over-scrutinize (a la Leinert).

I'm not saying Luck is going to be Leinert, but even quarterbacks who still end up going #1 after coming back usually hurt themselves during their senior season.

For example, Peyton Manning would have been the no-brainer #1 pick by the Jets in 1997, but he was in a neck-and-neck tie with Ryan Leaf in 1998. Similarly, Bradford was not the consensus #1 pick this time last year as many thought Suh should go to the Lions as the best overall player.

Why open up Pandora's Box? Go now when you can only hurt yourself next season in college.

Even if the rookie cap goes into effect now, he should want to come out sooner to start working towards the 2nd contract where the big money is going to be.

Because he got injured in his first game and did not put out more tape for scouts to over-scrutinize (a la Leinert).

That's an enormous assumption you're making. Bradford was considered up in the air as a prospect because of his injury until he started having private workouts and everyone fell in love with him. You really think people would have reacted differently to those workouts just because they had more tape on him prior? And what would have been seen in those tapes that weren't seen in the NFL on his way to Rookie of the Year?

The lockout makes the whole decision about coming out early difficult, especially knowing you'll be considered the "Savior" of a franchise hiring a new coach. The usual view is that rookies that hold out and don't get a lot of time in their opening training camp will struggle more than those who get in on or close to on time.

With the lockout, that might the scenario for *every* rookie coming out. Say a deal doesn't get done until September, with the idea of an abbreviated 12 game season starting in October. You've got three weeks to get deals signed, players into camp, new coaches to put their systems in.

If the rookie cap is already in place, he's not making any more or less in the first contract, and having a full camp and a "normal" NFL season may be better for you for getting a good second contract.

Thinking about the situation, I have to think that all the unknowns surrounding what happens if he came out had to factor in. True, at Stanford he's not sure who will be the coach next season, but the program seems like it will be solid no matter who is wearing the headset it is a lot more stable situation than he would likely face if he came out.

Will there be an NFL season? Who will be the coach? Coordinator? QB coach? WR's? (Even Steve Smith is questionable to return to Carolina.)

The only thing he's really missing out on by not coming out now is a really nice payday this year. Not everybody has Maurice Clarett Syndrome.

That's an enormous assumption you're making. Bradford was considered up in the air as a prospect because of his injury until he started having private workouts and everyone fell in love with him. You really think people would have reacted differently to those workouts just because they had more tape on him prior? And what would have been seen in those tapes that weren't seen in the NFL on his way to Rookie of the Year?

I really don't think it's an enormous assumption. Every player, including Luck, has flaws. NFL scouts are more likely to pick up on those flaws watching tape than watching a controlled workout. The more tape they have, the more obvious those flaws become.

It may be that his people talked to the Panthers, found out that Carolina was almost certainly going to take him, and decided to roll the dice.

Carolina is a small market with a bad team and a new coach and an owner who wants to pinch pennies. Really one of the worst situations for a new QB to go into, IMO.

Thinking about the situation, I have to think that all the unknowns surrounding what happens if he came out had to factor in. True, at Stanford he's not sure who will be the coach next season, but the program seems like it will be solid no matter who is wearing the headset it is a lot more stable situation than he would likely face if he came out.

Will there be an NFL season? Who will be the coach? Coordinator? QB coach? WR's? (Even Steve Smith is questionable to return to Carolina.)

The only thing he's really missing out on by not coming out now is a really nice payday this year. Not everybody has Maurice Clarett Syndrome.

Stanford loses a lot more than just Harbaugh. They will lose 7 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters.

As a college football fan, I can get behind his decision here.

As a UCLA fan... :rant:

I wouldn't be surprised if he stays simply because he doesn't want to play in Carolina. In fact, if he does come out, I'd almost expect to see him pull a John Elway/Eli Manning bit and demand to play for a particular team. For instance, if the 49ers hire Harbaugh, I could very well see a trade in which the Panthers pick Luck, and then trade his rights to SF with the understanding that the 49ers would draft XYZ player and hand over some draft picks.

if the 49ers hire Harbaugh

That ship is pulling out of the harbor.

This is such a fucking stupid decision.

Go pro, and if the NFL really locks out next season, go finish your degree.

It's official...he's staying at Stanford.

Andrew Luck skipping NFL draft, will return to Stanford Cardinal - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5995754)

Maybe he likes his life right now. Good for him.

I'm going to guess that he's not going to end up eating out of garbage cans either way.

Carolina is such a dumpster fire right now, I'm not sure I blame him. Would you want to be a rookie/savior QB in this situation?

The Panthers have 28 players who are not under contract for next season, assuming there is a next season.

Richardson has presided over cost-cutting in the past year with the Panthers. He oversaw the purge of numerous veterans with few experienced players brought in to replace them. He acknowledged Tuesday he didn't let coach John Fox go after last season in part because he and his staff made a combined $11.4 million this season.

Richardson also said he wouldn't sign any player to a new contract until a new CBA is reached.

"The reason is we're going to follow the CBA," Richardson said. "The CBA is something we're going to negotiate very hard for."
Panthers owner not optimistic on labor peace - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110104/ap_on_sp_fo_ne/fbn_nfl_labor_richardson)

Yeah, I'd want to start my NFL career entering that disaster. Owner doesn't want to spend any money, lame duck coach, 28+ players unsigned, no 2nd round pick, only 5 total picks outside of Luck and the owner has said he's not planning on signing any big-name FAs.

Go to Carolina and get killed the first season with no OL, defense or receivers - sounds like a blast. Heck, if Luck came out he'd probably be hoping for a lockout to avoid the beating he figured to take. Staying at school makes sense and given the crazy grades he's been given, it's almost inconceivable to see him dropping out of the top 5.

Think of it this way - they were 2-14 this season, figure to have fewer quality players, 1 pick (outside of Luck) in the first 3 rounds, no plan on signing FAs and a coach who's completely lost the team. I think even Jon Kitna's beating in his first season in Seattle is tame compared to what would face Luck.

I don't see how anyone can be disappointed with Luck here? He gets to go back to Stanford and avoids the mess of Carolina. Smart guy.

Hilarious. Since I first started checking this thread out following Luck's announcement, someone has voted "Yes" in the poll.

...

Yeah, I'd want to start my NFL career entering that disaster. Owner doesn't want to spend any money, lame duck coach, 28+ players unsigned, no 2nd round pick, only 5 total picks outside of Luck and the owner has said he's not planning on signing any big-name FAs.

...

Think of it this way - they were 2-14 this season, figure to have fewer quality players, 1 pick (outside of Luck) in the first 3 rounds, no plan on signing FAs and a coach who's completely lost the team. I think even Jon Kitna's beating in his first season in Seattle is tame compared to what would face Luck.

So.. what you're saying is, they have no 2nd round pick...

I am sure he will be taking out one of those insurance policies against a career threatening injury.
If anyone needs that policy going into next season, it would be Jimmy Clausen :D

So.. what you're saying is, they have no 2nd round pick...
They could have had multiple 1sts or 3rds like other rebuilding programs have had in recent seasons.

Or the draft-pick hording Patriots ;)

Carolina is such a dumpster fire right now, I'm not sure I blame him. Would you want to be a rookie/savior QB in this situation?


Panthers owner not optimistic on labor peace - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110104/ap_on_sp_fo_ne/fbn_nfl_labor_richardson)

Yeah, I'd want to start my NFL career entering that disaster. Owner doesn't want to spend any money, lame duck coach, 28+ players unsigned, no 2nd round pick, only 5 total picks outside of Luck and the owner has said he's not planning on signing any big-name FAs.

Go to Carolina and get killed the first season with no OL, defense or receivers - sounds like a blast. Heck, if Luck came out he'd probably be hoping for a lockout to avoid the beating he figured to take. Staying at school makes sense and given the crazy grades he's been given, it's almost inconceivable to see him dropping out of the top 5.

Think of it this way - they were 2-14 this season, figure to have fewer quality players, 1 pick (outside of Luck) in the first 3 rounds, no plan on signing FAs and a coach who's completely lost the team. I think even Jon Kitna's beating in his first season in Seattle is tame compared to what would face Luck.

If Carolina is such a mess, they might be picking #1 again next year.

If anyone needs that policy going into next season, it would be Jimmy Clausen :D

Looks pretty stupid on Carolina's part to have practically rolled out the welcome mat for Luck now. So, Jimmy... about that whole "We're taking Luck #1 overall" thing... Um... the new coach never said that!"

It's ok. Carolina can just take Luck 1st overall next year. Or if he returns next year in 2012.

edit: dammit, shoulda read all the way down the thread!

If Carolina is such a mess, they might be picking #1 again next year.

If the Mayans are right about the 2012 Apocolypse, then Luck is going to be really pissed about missing that one year in the NFL.

Not really, he'll have much more fun during his senior year as THE man on campus than he would as a rookie in the NFL.


I give him credit. There are things in life that are more important than money. This actually makes me want to see the Eagles go 0-16 next year. He seems to be level headed to go along with everything else that he brings to the table.

Just because he'd get drafted by the Panthers doesn't mean he'd have to play for them.

Maybe he likes his life right now. Good for him.

I'm going to guess that he's not going to end up eating out of garbage cans either way.

+1

On the plus side, he does get another year of hanging out with the college ladies as well. :lol:

Not really, he'll have much more fun during his senior year as THE man on campus than he would as a rookie in the NFL.

Scary note, since it appears to me those of you not following the Pac 10 closely don't know: Luck is a RS sophomore! He could stay in college for two more seasons. :eek:

Luck made a great decision. If anyone here has been to the Stanford campus, you might understand his decision a little more.

Not everyone is obsessed with money and being a #1 pick. Just because it isn't the decision you'd make doesn't make it the wrong one for him.

Now keep shoveling the Doritos into your grills and tell Andrew Luck how stupid he is.

It would be funny if Caroline picked #1 again next year and he decided to stay again.

2 words come to mind right now: Jake. Locker.

FTR, I don't think this is a bad call by Luck, but only because of the lockout. You can't go higher than #1 overall.

2 words come to mind right now: Jake. Locker.

Two more words: Completely. Different.

It's his decision to make and while I wouldn't have made it, Luck took a pretty big gamble in Stanford when he committed out of HS and that has worked out well.

Comparing Luck to Locker is about as accurate as comparing Luck to Bradford

Two more words: Completely. Different.

Not really. Anything can happen, from injury to, well, whatever.

Like I said, I don't think it's a horrible call on his part because of the labor situation, but given the uncertainty with the coaching situation at Stanford, I wouldn't put the odds of him being #1 overall a year from now at much better than 50-50.

Locker was always viewed as a project as a pure passer. He had a nice 3-4 game stretch in 09 where people were talking about him being #1 overall once he came out. But, once he went through the combines and workouts, he would have dropped pretty quick. He has an absolute cannon, great athletic ability and is pretty tough, but his decision making has always been questionable.

He was even more raw last year, so I think coming back was the right football move. He was likely a mid first rounder last year and that's what he'll be this year. The only knock would be with the labor agreement uncertainly, it's better financially to be a 10-15 pick in '10 than the same range in '11. Still, I think he would have been a disaster in the NFL had he come out last season.

Not really. Anything can happen, from injury to, well, whatever.

Like I said, I don't think it's a horrible call on his part because of the labor situation, but given the uncertainty with the coaching situation at Stanford, I wouldn't put the odds of him being #1 overall a year from now at much better than 50-50.

The Pac 10 guys would know better but I believe the thought is that Greg Roman would take over the spot and he had been running the offense under Harbaugh. The likelihood that Luck would feel any effect should be minimal, so I'd take that action. Unlike Locker, not only does everybody love Luck but he has the highest QB grade since John Elway. That's unlikely to go anywhere either.

I didn't realize that Luck has two more years of college eligibility. Smart guy in that he'll have three chances to decide what team, on a limited role, to play for.

I didn't realize that Luck has two more years of college eligibility. Smart guy in that he'll have three chances to decide what team, on a limited role, to play for.

Dangerous game to play mind. Career ending injuries aren't that common any more but they can still happen. Ask Chad Pennington how quickly a shoulder injury can turn you from an above average NFL QB to a pillow tossing backup.

I didn't realize that Luck has two more years of college eligibility. Smart guy in that he'll have three chances to decide what team, on a limited role, to play for.

I believe I read he graduates in spring of 2012, so he's going next year.

Dangerous game to play mind. Career ending injuries aren't that common any more but they can still happen. Ask Chad Pennington how quickly a shoulder injury can turn you from an above average NFL QB to a pillow tossing backup.

He'll have a monster insurance policy...

I believe I read he graduates in spring of 2012, so he's going next year.

Doesn't change that he's eligible for two more years, which was his point

He'll have a monster insurance policy...

What I was thinking. If his family is wealthy, it shouldn't be a concern.

FWIW, Jake Locker wasn't even given a 1st-round grade last year
by the NFL evaluators. That 1st overall pick was shit thrown against the board by Kiper and McShay, and the head of the NFL's committee called them out for the ignorance they displayed.

Doesn't change that he's eligible for two more years, which was his point

Even if he sucks next year, he could have a so-so year and graduate. And then his dad could sell his final year of eligibility to some desperate SEC school so he could do his masters work in recreational science.

Even if he sucks next year, he could have a so-so year and graduate. And then his dad could sell his final year of eligibility to some desperate SEC school so he could do his masters work in recreational science.

First off, he doesn't "need" the money. A wealthy family and big insurance policy will take care of him for life. Not to mention that a degree and connections from Stanford, along with his fame, will take him places regardless of his NFL career.

Secondly, Andrew Luck is not your typical college player. He seems to have a real interest in education. Graduated from his high school as Valedictorian, majors in architectural design (engineering) at Stanford. First team All Pac-10 Academic selection last year and make the second team this year. Why go to Stanford if your top goal in life is to get to the NFL?

I've read all of the posts in this thread.

Personally, I see a lot of emotional reasons to stay at Stanford, but no LOGICAL ones.

From an objective, life-benefit situation I still see no LOGICAL reasons to stay at Stanford this year.

Is it not logical to maximize your own happiness?

Of course it's not. Just like it's not logical to get your third year of college football under you to better prepare for the transition to the NFL. I don't remember the exact number, but there's a pretty strong correlation between number of college starts and success in the NFL.

The most logical reason to leave is for money. But when money isn't that high on your priority list, then the logical decision isn't necessarily the right or best one, is it?

If we were having this discussion last year, he'd be a fool to leave so much money on the table, assuming the difference between Bradford's deal and the likely cap on a 1st round pick's initial contract is as big as some think it will be. I think he pretty much would have been forced to take the money at that point. But in the position he's in now? Eh. It's a shock, but I can understand it, given his family situation. And also, maybe he really, really has a bad feeling about going to Carolina and is rolling the dice that he gets picked by a better franchise next year. Who knows?

I've read all of the posts in this thread.

Personally, I see a lot of emotional reasons to stay at Stanford, but no LOGICAL ones.

From an objective, life-benefit situation I still see no LOGICAL reasons to stay at Stanford this year.

Depends on your definition of logic. You are thinking like a dude who makes an honest living. You, I , nor likely anyone else on this board know what goes on in his mind or what is will be like to eventually be in his financial position.

He knows at some point he is getting paid. Now I may be romanticizing this, but maybe he also knows his college years are something you never get back once "real life" begins. Perhaps he enjoys college and wants to maximize that enjoyment, even if that means putting off the NFL and the millions that come with it for a year.

I'm sure he loves football, but it isn't hard to imagine he loves being in college and the things that go along with it just as much, so why give it up before he has to?

Depends on your definition of logic. You are thinking like a dude who makes an honest living. You, I , nor likely anyone else on this board know what goes on in his mind or what is will be like to eventually be in his financial position.

He knows at some point he is getting paid. Now I may be romanticizing this, but maybe he also knows his college years are something you never get back once "real life" begins. Perhaps he enjoys college and wants to maximize that enjoyment, even if that means putting off the NFL and the millions that come with it for a year.

I'm sure he loves football, but it isn't hard to imagine he loves being in college and the things that go along with it just as much, so why give it up before he has to?

Because you're a Joe Theismann injury away from never playing in the NFL?

Because you're a Joe Theismann injury away from never playing in the NFL?

Name the last injury you saw like that in college?

Not to mention he will have a monster insurance policy.

I'd be much more worried about accumulated concussions.

Name the last injury you saw like that in college?

Not to mention he will have a monster insurance policy.

Willis McGahee? Yeah, he still had an ok NFL career, but he's a durable running back.

What about the kid for your Rutgers team (I think you're a Rutgers fan, or am I mixing that up with Logan?) that can't walk now? Is that unlikely to happen to a QB, maybe - but it could.

A "monster insurance policy" is still not going to compare to 1.1 money, even IF there is a rookie scale. And, you never get that NFL dream money.

Wade, why wont you grasp that money may not be the driving factor in this kids life?

So the minuscule chance that you could be injured should drive this major decision?

Do you fly on planes?

I've read all of the posts in this thread.

Personally, I see a lot of emotional reasons to stay at Stanford, but no LOGICAL ones.

From an objective, life-benefit situation I still see no LOGICAL reasons to stay at Stanford this year.

Colin Cowherd agrees with you, congratulations. :p

If a player ever makes a choice because it may be the last snap he ever plays...he would be better off not being on the field at all, because that mindset really can get you seriously hurt. Luck doesn't seem like that kind of guy.

There's just as good of a chance of major injury in the NFL (maybe more with the additional strength/speed of the players) and I doubt he would care about having a $30 million pile sitting around if he was in a wheelchair.

And FTR, LeGrand WILL walk soon :).

Colin Cowherd agrees with you, congratulations. :p

lol, just heard him on the radio. What a tool Cowherd is. :lol:

A couple of thoughts.

I think his dad is still well-connected enough with the NFL brass to have a good feeling on the labor situation and this partially tells me that things are not looking good there.

If I am an NFL owner, I am sure as hell not giving my draft picks (if there is even a draft at the regular time this year) any non-refundable signing bonuses until I know if/when we are having a season and what new labor agreements are in place.

Luck was a 5-star QB coming out of high school in Houston, could have probably gone just about anywhere in the country, and chose to go to Stanford in Harbaugh's first (4-8) season -- well before Harbaugh was established as a head coach. I'd say there is significant evidence that he is wired differently than the average football player.

All that said, I am surprised that he did not turn pro. If you are guaranteed to be in the top 10 or 15 in the draft, the money available allows you to pretty much set up your family for generations and do almost whatever you could possibly want to do (including pay out of pocket for two semesters at Stanford).

Wade, why wont you grasp that money may not be the driving factor in this kids life?

Wade just doesn't grasp the value of a good mimosa.

Wade just doesn't grasp the value of a good mimosa.

It's pathetic how bad you want to be Subby.

Name the last injury you saw like that in college?

Not to mention he will have a monster insurance policy.

Michael Bush had a pretty bad one. He looked like a top 25 pick, but came back and broke his leg, I believe on a kick off return, in the first game of the season.

But seriously, the decision to go back to Stanford IS for emotional reasons. He likes the college life, loves playing college football, loves Stanford, etc. These are "happiness" reasons, not "smart" reasons.

I mean, props to the kid for going back. It was a good and happy decision for him and money isn't everything, however, an unemotional decision putting the pros/cons on a sheet of paper would weigh heavily towards declaring for the NFL Draft.

It's pathetic how bad you want to be Subby.

Subby wouldn't lower himself to my level.

Subby wouldn't lower himself to my level.

We finally agree on something.

Carry on.

If people are going to insist that the "smartest" decision is the one that gets him the most money, then you are right. It wasn't "smart."

I'd say there is significant evidence that he is wired differently than the average football player.

That's a sentiment I've heard/read several places now & I keep thinking how that would give me considerable pause about drafting him.

But seriously, the decision to go back to Stanford IS for emotional reasons. He likes the college life, loves playing college football, loves Stanford, etc. These are "happiness" reasons, not "smart" reasons.



Knowing what makes you happy is the smartest kind of smart there is.

Bunch of smelly hippies in this thread.

That's a sentiment I've heard/read several places now & I keep thinking how that would give me considerable pause about drafting him.

He probably wouldn't want to be drafted by a franchise with that mindset (it wouldn't be "smart" to let him miss a practice to see his kid get born, for example).

But seriously, the decision to go back to Stanford IS for emotional reasons. He likes the college life, loves playing college football, loves Stanford, etc. These are "happiness" reasons, not "smart" reasons.

I mean, props to the kid for going back. It was a good and happy decision for him and money isn't everything, however, an unemotional decision putting the pros/cons on a sheet of paper would weigh heavily towards declaring for the NFL Draft.

If you're going strictly by logical decisions. Quarterbacks with at least three years playing experience at the college level are significantly more likely to have success in the NFL than someone with two or less.

So, is success a logical reason? Or is simply getting as much cash as quickly as possible the ONLY logical factor?

Bunch of smelly hippies in this thread.

Serious question though - do you think the decision that maximizes your money is the only "smart" decision in any situation? Why are you on this message board instead of working then? Have you ever paid money to go on a vacation?

And Luck's margin for error, money wise, is a hell of greater than ours. He'll be making money. He's not leaving football to be a janitor for the love of cleaning toilets or anything.

If you're going strictly by logical decisions. Quarterbacks with at least three years playing experience at the college level are significantly more likely to have success in the NFL than someone with two or less.

So, is success a logical reason? Or is simply getting as much cash as quickly as possible the ONLY logical factor?

Again, this is ONE factor. Put this on the "pro" side of the unemotional list when weighing the decision.

My point was that weighing EVERYTHING would tip the scales towards going pro because there are many more "cons" to staying in college for his senior year.

But seriously, the decision to go back to Stanford IS for emotional reasons. He likes the college life, loves playing college football, loves Stanford, etc. These are "happiness" reasons, not "smart" reasons.

I mean, props to the kid for going back. It was a good and happy decision for him and money isn't everything, however, an unemotional decision putting the pros/cons on a sheet of paper would weigh heavily towards declaring for the NFL Draft.

How do we really know why he didn't come out? Of course he is going to say it was to stay and get his degree, but that may not be the full reason. If the season is locked out completely how will the draft work next year? Lottery? Could be as many have stated he doesn't want to be put in a situation where he is going to Carolina when he has a small say so. Plus if the season is locked out, which it could be, he will still be gaining valuable experience for another year. That sound logical to me when he may not even get any money this year if there is a lock out.

Serious question though - do you think the decision that maximizes your money is the only "smart" decision in any situation? Why are you on this message board instead of working then?

Again, money is not the ONLY factor here. Most athletes dream of achieveing success at the highest level, which is the pro level. There is also the risk that Harbaugh does not come back, and the potential of a new head coach mucking up things in Luck's senior year. Further, the loss of seven offensive starters does hurt Luck's chances of eclipsing the success of this year's Stanford team.

Luck's done all he can at this level, why doesn't he challenge himself to see what he can accomplish in the NFL?

How do we really know why he didn't come out? Of course he is going to say it was to stay and get his degree, but that may not be the full reason. If the season is locked out completely how will the draft work next year? Lottery? Could be as many have stated he doesn't want to be put in a situation where he is going to Carolina when he has a small say so. Plus if the season is locked out, which it could be, he will still be gaining valuable experience for another year. That sound logical to me when he may not even get any money this year if there is a lock out.

We're speculating, no one really knows, we're arguing as if we're in Luck's shoes based on our perception of his particular circumstances.

That's a sentiment I've heard/read several places now & I keep thinking how that would give me considerable pause about drafting him.

I can definitely see that being used against him next year. The whole "Does he love the game?" argument.

Maybe Harbaugh leaves, Rich Rodriguez takes the Stanford job, and tries to install the spread offense and make Luck a running QB? :)

We're speculating, no one really knows, we're arguing as if we're in Luck's shoes based on our perception of his particular circumstances.

Exactly, and people are speculating that he will be getting a payday, when he may not get one for quite a while. Either way we look at it there are very logical reasons for either decision he made. So what it really comes down to is what will make him happy.

It must have been the love of the game thing that kept SD from drafting Peyton Manning. That worked out well.

Exactly, and people are speculating that he will be getting a payday, when he may not get one for quite a while. Either way we look at it there are very logical reasons for either decision he made. So what it really comes down to is what will make him happy.

Do you know why he was happy to stay in Stanford?

I can definitely see that being used against him next year. The whole "Does he love the game?" argument.

Personally speaking, the confidence required to not do what everyone wants/expects would be a huge plus in my mind.

What are the chances of Stanford having another season as good next year btw ? Wasn´t that basically like as good a year as they could ever hope for ?

i think what really is baffling that he makes that decicion seemingly unrelated to the football-side of things considering that he doesn´t even know if his coach is going to be back.

I really think it´s an admireable decicion and especially great that he seemingly made that decicion on his own with (as far as i know) no pressure from parents or coaches, but obviously that´s a decicion that won´t hold up in a pro/con type of argument.

I can definitely see that being used against him next year. The whole "Does he love the game?" argument.

This argument makes it seem like he is postponing the NFL for a year to go spend a semester abroad in Australia. All he will do is play football, refine his skills, and get more experience as a QB and as a leader. People bring up that he will be losing offensive linemen...what if the byproduct of that is he experiences less time in the pocket to make his progressions/throws which will better prepare him for the typical "run for your life" early career that many top QBs have to go through because they've been drafted by a bad team?

As has been pointed out...someone wondering "does he love football" certainly didn't affect Peyton Manning and it didn't affect Bradford. But if by some retarded reason it does and some teams pass on Luck and he falls in the draft, he may find himself in a much better situation with a better team/coaching staff than what he is facing if he played it safe. Maybe it's a short term drop in money but it could lead to much more money down the road in future contracts. Give a listen to Trent Dilfer with Bill Simmons as he discusses how important the situation is that a young QB enters into, and how that can be the difference between success and failure.

This argument makes it seem like he is postponing the NFL for a year to go spend a semester abroad in Australia. All he will do is play football, refine his skills, and get more experience as a QB and as a leader. People bring up that he will be losing offensive linemen...what if the byproduct of that is he experiences less time in the pocket to make his progressions/throws which will better prepare him for the typical "run for your life" early career that many top QBs have to go through because they've been drafted by a bad team?

It could also cause Luck to develop bad habits (happy feet, irregular throwing motion) that would diminish his pro prospects.

OK, since we all are apparently in a place where we can know the factors that were important to him, what's the actual pro/con list of staying?

Pro:
-loves the college life, which he'll never get to live again
-loyalty to teammates
-another year of development (strong correlation between college starts and nfl success)
-Chance that there's no NFL football in 2011, or that there's a shortened season.
-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)

CONS
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL salary (if no lockout)
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL service time to free agency/pension (if no lockout, unless the eventual CBA grants that year of service time)
-Puts off, by one season, the rookie/young qb struggles that you need to get through to be an elite NFL QB (and loses that year of development under NFL coaching)
-Serious risk of losing multi-millions by hurting his draft status.
-Risk of serious college injury that could hamper or end his NFL career
-His college team is unlikely to be as good next year as it was this year

There's a lot of unknown variables there. It must have been a really tough decision. Quite a bit of risk either way. Staying in school could cost him money, but I don't think it would hurt his career (it just means he'd be less of a bust because he'd be drafted lower - would Matt Leinart be a better NFL QB today if he left earlier - that doesn't make much sense. If Locker came out last year, he probably would have just been a huge bust - at least now expectations will be in check and he's had another year to try to improve) Going too soon could ruin his career if he's not ready and/or he's drafted into a bad situation (which costs money in the long run).

It could also cause Luck to develop bad habits (happy feet, irregular throwing motion) that would diminish his pro prospects.

That's true...and if he faced that in the pros, he would be likely to develop that there too. Yeah he would be doing so with his contract already in place, but then we're back to the money issue.

Absent some coke-fueled binge or allegations of rape or something, the guy was guaranteed by Carolina to be the 1st pick in the draft. He can't improve on 1.1. Coming back had to do with something other than money and improving his draft stock. Isn't that obvious?

OK, since we all are apparently in a place where we can know the factors that were important to him, what's the actual pro/con list of staying?

Pro:
-loves the college life, which he'll never get to live again
-loyalty to teammates
-another year of development (strong correlation between college starts and nfl success)
-Chance that there's no NFL football in 2011, or that there's a shortened season.
-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)

CONS
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL salary (if no lockout)
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL service time to free agency/pension (if no lockout, unless the eventual CBA grants that year of service time)
-Puts off, by one season, the rookie/young qb struggles that you need to get through to be an elite NFL QB (and loses that year of development under NFL coaching)
-Serious risk of losing multi-millions by hurting his draft status.
-Risk of serious college injury that could hamper or end his NFL career
-His college team is unlikely to be as good next year as it was this year

There's a lot of unknown variables there. It must have been a really tough decision. Quite a bit of risk either way. Staying in school could cost him money, but I don't think it would hurt his career (it just means he'd be less of a bust because he'd be drafted lower - would Matt Leinart be a better NFL QB today if he left earlier - that doesn't make much sense. If Locker came out last year, he probably would have just been a huge bust - at least now expectations will be in check and he's had another year to try to improve) Going too soon could ruin his career if he's not ready and/or he's drafted into a bad situation (which costs money in the long run).


I don't think you can list

"-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)"

as a pro without listing:

-Potentially end up in a worse career situation than Carolina

as a con.

Whatever you guys want to say about Carolina, I don't see how it's worse than say OAK, WAS, or CIN as organizations.

I don't think you can list

"-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)"

as a pro without listing:

-Potentially end up in a worse career situation than Carolina

as a con.

Whatever you guys want to say about Carolina, I don't see how it's worse than say OAK, WAS, or CIN as organizations.

Who knows what the top 5 picks are next year? Could be Miami, the Vikings, the Titans, the Broncos, which would be better spots. The only thing worse than Carolina would be Cincinnati. Any team drafting him will probably have been bad the year before, but some franchises are just worse than others, regardless of year-to-year success.

Washington is a better situation. I'd say Oakland is as well, but Oakland won't be ending up with the #1 pick anyway.

Who knows what the top 5 picks are next year? Could be Miami, the Vikings, the Titans, the Broncos, which would be better spots. The only thing worse than Carolina would be Cincinnati.

I guess I have a different take on Carolina than others, which may be part of the disconnect here.

Carolina has a solid running game, decent receivers, doesn't have a history of being awful.

OAK, CIN, BUF, WAS at a minimum seem like a worse situation to me. Especially if you factor in that if he goes to CAR I suspect he gets Harbaugh or Cowher as coach, rather than whatever dregs you get at the other possibilities.

Harbaugh and Cowher are not going to Carolina. Also, Caroline has crap for receivers. Steve Smith is their only option and he's getting old and is injury prone.

Especially if you factor in that if he goes to CAR I suspect he gets Harbaugh or Cowher as coach, rather than whatever dregs you get at the other possibilities.

Agreed that he'd probably want to go somewhere that's starting new with an elite coach, but the elite coaches, as far as I've read, have no interest in Carolina. Next season, any of that list of other possible bad teams in the top 5 could be starting new with Gruden, Harbaugh, Cowher, or whoever. Maybe Luck makes the Carolina job a little more attractive, but its telling that Harbaugh doesn't even seem to be even considering that job.

I guess I have a different take on Carolina than others, which may be part of the disconnect here.

Carolina has a solid running game, decent receivers, doesn't have a history of being awful.



IIRC they have 28 unsigned players and the owner has come out and stated he won't sign any FAs until the labor situation is resolved. So if the CBA isn't signed until 3 weeks before the regular season that is a lot of scrambling to have to do.

Those Carolina RBs are getting old fast.

edit: which is crazy, but you really do need to get the QB in before the RB in today's game.

i'm going to speculate wildly and say that philly is going to trade vick to car(if the cba gets done)

luck's gone, vick mentioned going there last offseason and barring injury or a sb win philly will cash out on vick while his value is high.

Harbaugh and Cowher are not going to Carolina. Also, Caroline has crap for receivers. Steve Smith is their only option and he's getting old and is injury prone.

Agreed that he'd probably want to go somewhere that's starting new with an elite coach, but the elite coaches, as far as I've read, have no interest in Carolina. Next season, any of that list of other possible bad teams in the top 5 could be starting new with Gruden, Harbaugh, Cowher, or whoever. Maybe Luck makes the Carolina job a little more attractive, but its telling that Harbaugh doesn't even seem to be even considering that job.

IIRC they have 28 unsigned players and the owner has come out and stated he won't sign any FAs until the labor situation is resolved. So if the CBA isn't signed until 3 weeks before the regular season that is a lot of scrambling to have to do.

Again, maybe I'm assuming too much, but I have to think Carolina+Luck brings in Cowher or Harbaugh and the owner starts shifting his stance.

Idano, again, maybe I'm naive here but I don't see CAR as this blackhole that some here do.

Again, maybe I'm assuming too much, but I have to think Carolina+Luck brings in Cowher or Harbaugh and the owner starts shifting his stance.

Idano, again, maybe I'm naive here but I don't see CAR as this blackhole that some here do.

Luck is the one that would know for sure how much appeal that situation would have for elite coaches (Harbaugh could share that insight with him). And Luck's decided to stay. That might not be a coincidence.

Maybe Luck's decision would be different if Harbaugh was interested at all in that job. There's so much we don't know.

Luck is the one that would know for sure how much appeal that situation would have for elite coaches (Harbaugh could share that insight with him). And Luck's decided to stay. That might not be a coincidence.

Maybe Luck's decision would be different if Harbaugh was interested at all in that job. There's so much we don't know.

See, again, I take egg over chicken, or something.

I think Harbaugh hinged on Luck, not the other way around.

So far, Panthers looking at defensive guys - NFC South Blog - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/17429/so-far-panthers-looking-at-defensive-guys)

Carolina seems to be looking at current defensive coordinators entirely at this point.


Those Carolina RBs are getting old fast.


DeAngelo Williams is 27, Jonathan Stewart is 23. Mike Goodson if you believe him to be a legit candidate to get a bunch of carries, is 23. RB age is not a problem. Injury concerns might be of course though.

Oh, I agree. Just tell me that you cannot picture the talking heads on ESPN and NFL network saying it about Andrew Luck during the next season (and prior to the next draft).

This argument makes it seem like he is postponing the NFL for a year to go spend a semester abroad in Australia. All he will do is play football, refine his skills, and get more experience as a QB and as a leader. People bring up that he will be losing offensive linemen...what if the byproduct of that is he experiences less time in the pocket to make his progressions/throws which will better prepare him for the typical "run for your life" early career that many top QBs have to go through because they've been drafted by a bad team?

As has been pointed out...someone wondering "does he love football" certainly didn't affect Peyton Manning and it didn't affect Bradford. But if by some retarded reason it does and some teams pass on Luck and he falls in the draft, he may find himself in a much better situation with a better team/coaching staff than what he is facing if he played it safe. Maybe it's a short term drop in money but it could lead to much more money down the road in future contracts. Give a listen to Trent Dilfer with Bill Simmons as he discusses how important the situation is that a young QB enters into, and how that can be the difference between success and failure.

DeAngelo Williams is 27, Jonathan Stewart is 23. Mike Goodson if you believe him to be a legit candidate to get a bunch of carries, is 23. RB age is not a problem. Injury concerns might be of course though.

Had no idea Stewart was so young, so that defeats my point. Williams doesn't though - by the time Luck would be ready to really achieve he would be on the wrong side of 30.

Couldn't it as easily be he loves football so much he's making the only choice that assures he gets to play it next year?

The RB Luck is going rely on is whoever his team drafts after his rookie season.

they have 28 unsigned players

Does anyone else immediately think of FOF every time they read this?

Ha, yep!

Found this article referenced on another board, from Matt Murphy, Packers CEO, detailing the NFL's proposal for the future rookie pay scale. Now this is their starting point, and despite their power position they will still need to move up from this but it gives a sense of the numbers that Luck et al will end up seeing.

Under our proposal, mandatory contract lengths would be five years for first-round players (six years for quarterbacks), four years for second- through seventh-round picks and three years for undrafted rookies (as I was). Players and teams would be able to renegotiate and extend the initial contracts of first-round rookies after year three, and after year two for all other rookies.

Under the proposal, the first pick in the draft would sign a five-year contract and receive a $5.34 million signing bonus and $1.5 million salary his rookie year, even if he does not play a single down. In years two and three, his salary would be set at $1.7 million and $1.9 million, respectively. His fourth- and fifth-year salaries would rise to $2.3 million and $2.9 million for a total package of $15.6 million. (If he is a quarterback, he would be paid $4.3 million in year six.) The first pick would still be paid well, but at a much more reasonable level than under the current system

So for a 1.1 QB, a 6-year deal totaling $19.9 million with $6.8 million guaranteed.

To avoid an NFL lockout, let's stop breaking the bank with rookies (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/17/AR2010121702560.html)

A 3-year deal for undrafted rookies, negotiable after year 2? Fuck that.

Let me see how this works - we find a diamond in the rough, we get millions in cost savings. If the player sucks, we cut him before game 1 of his rookie season and owe him cab fare.

I guess one point that I havent seen discussed is that a career has a definite shelf life (Brett Favre not withstanding) most Qbs only have until 33-34...if he is elite he will be elite so why not start the clock ticking now?

To me this is a dumb move on his part. Under the new CBA there will be no forced trades, drafting teams will own your rights throughout the rookie contract, so if you dream of playing in XYZ....why not get the clock started now. Plus it likely gives you one more season on the back end to amass career records/stats not that it will matter since hee will likely play an entire career in an 18 game regular season.

Looking at those numbers, maybe Luck doesn't want to be saddled with the "test year" of the new CBA. I could see something coming where top 10 salaries increase after a year or so of this system. I mean, going from $60 mil guaranteed to $6 is a huge change.

A 3-year deal for undrafted rookies, negotiable after year 2? Fuck that.

Let me see how this works - we find a diamond in the rough, we get millions in cost savings. If the player sucks, we cut him before game 1 of his rookie season and owe him cab fare.

What's the system now for UDFAs?

I thought they were mostly just signed to 1-year deals, but I don't know.

Answering my question:

Using LeGarrette Blount as an example since he's the first UDFA I can think of who would actually have significant value...don't know what he made this year, but he's going to make $405k in 2011 and in 2012 would be an exclusive rights FA, which according to wikipedia:

Exclusive-rights free agents are players who have completed fewer than three "accrued seasons" of service whose contracts have expired.[1] An accrued season consists of a player being on a team's active/inactive roster, or reserved-injured or "physically unable to perform" lists for at least six weeks of a season. If the franchise makes a "qualifying offer" (a contract at a salary level based on the player's tenure as predetermined by the collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players' union) the player has no negotiating rights with other clubs and must either sign the tender with their current club or sit out the season

So I'm not sure what the uproar is about. Doesn't seem to be much of a difference.

So the minuscule chance that you could be injured should drive this major decision?

Do you fly on planes?

Flying is safer than driving so....

Flying is safer than driving so....

more people survive car wrecks

More quarterbacks survive their last year in college.

A 3-year deal for undrafted rookies, negotiable after year 2? Fuck that.

Let me see how this works - we find a diamond in the rough, we get millions in cost savings. If the player sucks, we cut him before game 1 of his rookie season and owe him cab fare.

Of course. Which is why people whining about rookies getting paid too much should recognized that they are still underpaid as compared to a free market.

Answering my question:

Using LeGarrette Blount as an example since he's the first UDFA I can think of who would actually have significant value...don't know what he made this year, but he's going to make $405k in 2011 and in 2012 would be an exclusive rights FA, which according to wikipedia:



So I'm not sure what the uproar is about. Doesn't seem to be much of a difference.

Man that sucks. I guess it's been a while since I played FOF...

more people survive car wrecks


http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen99/gen99845.htm


... According to the latter, each year in the US 1 out of 6800 drivers dies in an auto accident. The rate for
airline passengers is 1 in 1.6 million. ...

Drivers vs. passengers? Isn't that apples to oranges?

If Luck is as good as advertised, he will never get to test FA.

Let me rephrase that. . . he could test FA, but only after going through the last year of his rookie deal and a year of being the franchise player without any longterm security.

2 years without any security for the type of money he would be making? Ummm. . . no.

Only way a top ten pick QB will ever have to worry about FA rules is if he sucks so bad he can't be the starter but is good enough to hold a clipboard. (Smile and wave to the cameras David Carr)

more people survive car wrecks

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen99/gen99845.htm

LOL<
I bolded the relevant part for you...

DOLA - My point (even though the original joke was just a tongue in cheek one liner) is that even though it may be statistically "safer" just like the QB situation, if things go wrong the results are MUCH more drastic.

Looking at those numbers, maybe Luck doesn't want to be saddled with the "test year" of the new CBA. I could see something coming where top 10 salaries increase after a year or so of this system. I mean, going from $60 mil guaranteed to $6 is a huge change.

Yeah, wow. I'm all for the rookie scale, but this seems like way too far on the opposite end of extreme. I don't see how the owners get a deal in that's anywhere close to $6mil guaranteed for the 1.1.

It helps when it's being negotiated by people it isn't affecting and who stand to benefit by making this kind of concession.

Like I said, no way will it be that low, but when that is where the owners are starting from, it shows they're looking for blood on that issue.

Andrew Luck will return to Stanford University next year, and it's worth remembering that his decision is based as much on business as it is on the virtues of an education. - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?page=kreidler/110107)

Andrew Luck will return to Stanford University next year, and it's worth remembering that his decision is based as much on business as it is on the virtues of an education. - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?page=kreidler/110107)

Awww I was enjoying the argument of extremes!

Do you know why he was happy to stay in Stanford?

No, and I don't recall ever stating I did. Just that he obviously believes that will make him happier, otherwise why would he do it as no one is forcing him to do either one.

On another note I heard on one of the pre-game shows today that the Panthers owner called him to clarify why he was staying in school. Apparently he stated the fact the Panthers own the first pick had nothing to do with him staying in school.