JeeberD
03-07-2003, 09:27 AM
Here's an article from ESPN Insider. I like the idea, but I'm worried about how it will affect this year's draft...
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Brace yourselves college and international basketball fans. Come May, the NBA will experience the largest exodus of underclassmen (both college and international) in the history of the draft.
Why? Rumors are running rampant among NBA GMs and player agents that NBA commish David Stern is working out a deal with Players Association president Billy Hunter that would create a 20-year-old age limit for the 2004 NBA draft.
Stern, who's been pushing for the rule for years, may have finally found a way to get the NBPA (which has always opposed such a rule) on board.
The rumored compromise would create cap relief for teams that want to sign older veterans but can't because of luxury-tax fears. Older players, who happen to dominate the leadership of the players' executive council, have been complaining for the past few years that aging veterans have been the most adversely affected by the new rules.
If the two sides work out an agreement soon (Sports Illustrated reported it could happened next month) expect NBA player agents to begin working overtime with teenagers in high school, college and overseas to get them into the draft this year.
"It will dramatically affect how we handle some of younger clients overseas and some of the kids we're recruiting in high school and college," one prominent NBA player agent said. "If a kid is 17 or 18 right now and NBA teams are interested, it's now or 2005 or 2006. I think some of these kids don't want to wait that long."
It's already likely that LeBron James (age 18), Darko Milicic (17), Carmelo Anthony (19) and Chris Bosh (19) will declare for this year's draft.
Top high school prospects like Luol Deng may consider skipping college if the NBA passes an age limit for 2004
But several other players, including top high school prospects like Kederick Perkins, Luol Deng, Charlie Villanueva, James Lang and Kris Humphries, who were on the fence before, may now be pushed into the draft if the rumors persist.
None of them, according to several respected NBA scouts, are ready for the NBA. However, the lure of guaranteed money now, as opposed to two years from now, may be too much to pass up. Of course, if they declare, teams will draft them, ready or not.
"The draft is still about upside," one GM told Insider. "At the end of the day you take the guy who will eventually be the best player, not the kid who's the best player right now."
Expect an even bigger flood of international players to consider bolting. The advantage they have is that NBA teams can keep them overseas for a few more seasons and develop them. Over the past week young prospects such as Yugoslavia's Kosta Perovic (18 years old), Senegal's Malick Badiane (18), Brazil's Tiago Splitter (17) and Poland's Maciej Lampe (17) have all been rumored to be considering throwing their names in the draft because of the rule change.
That puts a heavy burden on international scouts.
The problem, as even the most enthusiastic international scouts will admit, is that international scouting is following the same trend as American scouting. "The kids we are looking at are getting younger and younger," one assistant GM told Insider. "Even three years ago, you pretty much waited until an European kid established himself over there before you seriously looked at him. There were exceptions, like Andrei Kirilenko, but for the most part teams were only comfortable drafting guys who had already become stars on the international scene. Nowadays, we're trying to evaluate kids like Nikoloz Tskitishvili. It's becoming a much riskier proposition."
That's what made Denver's selection of Tskitishvili, currently the second-youngest player in the NBA, such a risk. Everyone could see his skills in workouts, but no one got a good look at him in a game.
Without any real game film to go on, teams must rely on international junior competitions, grainy game film, practices (increasingly difficult to get into) and a lot of second-hand accounts.
This year, Milicic, who turns 18 just weeks before the draft, will be the youngest player ever drafted in the lottery. Fortunately, he starts for his team, giving teams plenty of game film to examine. But for a number of other blue chip international prospects, scouts must increasingly rely on their gut and a little bit of faith.
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Brace yourselves college and international basketball fans. Come May, the NBA will experience the largest exodus of underclassmen (both college and international) in the history of the draft.
Why? Rumors are running rampant among NBA GMs and player agents that NBA commish David Stern is working out a deal with Players Association president Billy Hunter that would create a 20-year-old age limit for the 2004 NBA draft.
Stern, who's been pushing for the rule for years, may have finally found a way to get the NBPA (which has always opposed such a rule) on board.
The rumored compromise would create cap relief for teams that want to sign older veterans but can't because of luxury-tax fears. Older players, who happen to dominate the leadership of the players' executive council, have been complaining for the past few years that aging veterans have been the most adversely affected by the new rules.
If the two sides work out an agreement soon (Sports Illustrated reported it could happened next month) expect NBA player agents to begin working overtime with teenagers in high school, college and overseas to get them into the draft this year.
"It will dramatically affect how we handle some of younger clients overseas and some of the kids we're recruiting in high school and college," one prominent NBA player agent said. "If a kid is 17 or 18 right now and NBA teams are interested, it's now or 2005 or 2006. I think some of these kids don't want to wait that long."
It's already likely that LeBron James (age 18), Darko Milicic (17), Carmelo Anthony (19) and Chris Bosh (19) will declare for this year's draft.
Top high school prospects like Luol Deng may consider skipping college if the NBA passes an age limit for 2004
But several other players, including top high school prospects like Kederick Perkins, Luol Deng, Charlie Villanueva, James Lang and Kris Humphries, who were on the fence before, may now be pushed into the draft if the rumors persist.
None of them, according to several respected NBA scouts, are ready for the NBA. However, the lure of guaranteed money now, as opposed to two years from now, may be too much to pass up. Of course, if they declare, teams will draft them, ready or not.
"The draft is still about upside," one GM told Insider. "At the end of the day you take the guy who will eventually be the best player, not the kid who's the best player right now."
Expect an even bigger flood of international players to consider bolting. The advantage they have is that NBA teams can keep them overseas for a few more seasons and develop them. Over the past week young prospects such as Yugoslavia's Kosta Perovic (18 years old), Senegal's Malick Badiane (18), Brazil's Tiago Splitter (17) and Poland's Maciej Lampe (17) have all been rumored to be considering throwing their names in the draft because of the rule change.
That puts a heavy burden on international scouts.
The problem, as even the most enthusiastic international scouts will admit, is that international scouting is following the same trend as American scouting. "The kids we are looking at are getting younger and younger," one assistant GM told Insider. "Even three years ago, you pretty much waited until an European kid established himself over there before you seriously looked at him. There were exceptions, like Andrei Kirilenko, but for the most part teams were only comfortable drafting guys who had already become stars on the international scene. Nowadays, we're trying to evaluate kids like Nikoloz Tskitishvili. It's becoming a much riskier proposition."
That's what made Denver's selection of Tskitishvili, currently the second-youngest player in the NBA, such a risk. Everyone could see his skills in workouts, but no one got a good look at him in a game.
Without any real game film to go on, teams must rely on international junior competitions, grainy game film, practices (increasingly difficult to get into) and a lot of second-hand accounts.
This year, Milicic, who turns 18 just weeks before the draft, will be the youngest player ever drafted in the lottery. Fortunately, he starts for his team, giving teams plenty of game film to examine. But for a number of other blue chip international prospects, scouts must increasingly rely on their gut and a little bit of faith.