If the Phillies make the playoffs, this guy has to be it. He is almost as clutch as David Ortiz and (with Chase Utley) has propelled this club's offense.

Just hit a grand slam down 0-2 with 2 outs to put the Phils on top of the Mets 5-2.

They would have to change the rules allowing second-year players to win the award. :)

That was a god awful pitch by Perez. Ruined a nice night.

But yeah, he should win the MVP over Beltran.

They would have to change the rules allowing second-year players to win the award. :)

I thought this was a thread from last year. :)

I thought this was a thread from last year. :)
You know, between Pujols and Howard, you'd think the state of Missouri would be the baseball capitol of the college baseball world. :)

You know, between Pujols and Howard, you'd think the state of Missouri would be the baseball capitol of the college baseball world. :)

Amen.

You watching the Chiefs - Rams game?

I just saw the Chiefs first team offense shove it down the Rams throat, yes. :)

I just saw the Chiefs first team offense shove it down the Rams throat, yes. :)

There's a reason LJ is rated #1 for most Fantasy Football reports.

That's ok though.. the Martz era is over. For that, I can sit and relax watching them play.

But yeah, he should win the MVP over Beltran.

Thats dirty talk. Actually I will admit, IF the Phils make the playoffs he deserves it.

There's a reason LJ is rated #1 for most Fantasy Football reports.

That's ok though.. the Martz era is over. For that, I can sit and relax watching them play.

..or not

They would have to change the rules allowing second-year players to win the award. :)
And allowing them to win it two years in a row.

He should get a little MVP support, but finish about 4th in the voting.

It's getting close to time to say goodbye to Schmidt's record for homeruns in a season. Anyone want to bet that he plays the "wish I got to play in that ballpark" card? Sorry, loved Schmidt as a third baseman but he seems to be a genuine a-hole by all accounts.

Looking over the schedule, I believe todays game with the Mets is the last over .500 club the Phils will face this year. While the NL is so pisspoor this season, I guess that's not saying much though.

He hit number 49 last night, and got his 40th RBI of the month. If you believe that McGwire, Sosa and Bonds were all cheaters(and I pretty well do), this may be our first chance to actually see a legit athlete challenge Maris' record. Then again, Howard could always be on Winstrol too.

Bump for Howard's 3-HR performance today.

And to think Eddie Wade almost traded him for Kris Benson (in 2004)

Wow, just wow.

With his late season major surge I may need to rethink my MVP predictions.

And it looks like they are going to blow game one anyways. If they actually had some relief pitching, they'd be good.

And with that comeback victory, I believe the faint distant hope of the Braves sneaking into the WC spot just ended.

And a comeback victory. I like that.

According to Win Shares, he's not even close to Beltran. Supposedly, he's the worst defensive first baseman in the league. Also, The difference in their ballparks is the main difference between their hitting numbers.

Also, The difference in their ballparks is the main difference between their hitting numbers.

Beltran's numbers are probably hurt by plaing in Shea. Howard's home/away splits are virtually identical (he's actually a bit better on the road this year).

Beltran's numbers are probably hurt by plaing in Shea. Howard's home/away splits are virtually identical (he's actually a bit better on the road this year).

Despite it's bandbox rep Philly plays fairly neutral. But Shea is usually the worst park in the NL.

Beltran is about twelve Win Shares ahead of Howard now. His offensive contributions are worth about five WS of that advantage.

I posted the full list here (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=52311)

Ah yes, win shares, yet another attempt to turn baseball into a spread sheet with a calculation du jour.

Ah yes, win shares, yet another attempt to turn baseball into a spread sheet with a calculation du jour.

You know, you're right. Win Shares is so much stupider than the traditional unquantified calculations for MVP. I think we should forget WS, EQA, VORP and the like.

It's so much better to just look at the top teams and pick the RBI man on the team that was good enough to be a contender but not good enough to run away with it.

BTW, VORP, which is just based on offensive contributions, has Beltran just edging Howard 64.9 to 63.8.

EQA has Howard over Beltran .325 to .319.

You know, you're right. Win Shares is so much stupider than the traditional unquantified calculations for MVP. I think we should forget WS, EQA, VORP and the like.

It's so much better to just look at the top teams and pick the RBI man on the team that was good enough to be a contender but not good enough to run away with it.

BTW, VORP, which is just based on offensive contributions, has Beltran just edging Howard 64.9 to 63.8.

EQA has Howard over Beltran .325 to .319.

lol, equations mean nothing when the game is on the line.

Do equations tell you that an opposing manager will intentionally walk a player every time he steps up to the plate in extra innings? Will equations tell you that an opposing manager would walk the player with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out to load the bases instead of pitching to him with the game on the line? MVP should be about knowing the players, not knowing a spread sheet.

Hell, you act as if I am arguing for Howard as MVP, read my earlier prediction.

My point is that baseball stat geeks fall in love with numbers and made up equations instead of looking at the whole picture, the actual players involved who aren't just numbers to be crunched. Even funnier when you see how defensive they get when you challenge their equations.

lol, equations mean nothing when the game is on the line.



Ed Wade would agree with you, as would Dusty Baker. Good company there, Cochise.

Meh, for all statistic debate aside, I think its finally cool as a Phillies fan to see some of these young players do some great things to keep this team in contention.

Howard, Utley, and Hamels...I heart you all.

BTW; Maybe Hamels should get some Rookie of the Year consideration if he pitches in September like he has been lately.

dola

I can't forget to mention Rowland, Chris Coste (the 33-year old rookie), and Shane Victorino all playing well.

Best of all, we got rid of two stiffs in Abreu and Bell. Now if we could just get rid of Burrell, I would be really happy.

lol, equations mean nothing when the game is on the line.

Do equations tell you that an opposing manager will intentionally walk a player every time he steps up to the plate in extra innings? Will equations tell you that an opposing manager would walk the player with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out to load the bases instead of pitching to him with the game on the line? MVP should be about knowing the players, not knowing a spread sheet.

Hell, you act as if I am arguing for Howard as MVP, read my earlier prediction.

My point is that baseball stat geeks fall in love with numbers and made up equations instead of looking at the whole picture, the actual players involved who aren't just numbers to be crunched. Even funnier when you see how defensive they get when you challenge their equations.

So then you are saying that you don't make calculations? The difference is that you won't quantify yours so that they can change according to what you feel like at the moment.

And I never said that you were arguing for Howard. I was supporting my argument that Belrtran has been significantly better than Howard this year.

Here's are two simple comparisons of the two that don't include any of those nasty equations:

Beltran
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 60 218 56 49 15 0 15 37 43 42 10 1 .225 .352 .500 .852
Away 62 237 57 81 21 1 24 75 32 45 6 2 .342 .420 .743 1.162

Howard
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 70 253 47 78 7 1 27 69 42 75 0 0 .308 .410 .664 1.074
Away 64 247 41 76 11 0 25 64 34 79 0 0 .308 .392 .656 1.047

Beltran's away stats are somewhat better than Howard's. But he's Beltran has underperformed at home-- even considering that it's a lousy place to hit.

But how about this:

Beltran
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 122 455 113 130 36 1 39 112 75 87 16 3 .286 .386 .626 1.013
Rowand
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 109 405 59 106 24 3 12 47 18 76 10 4 .262 .321 .425 .745

Howard
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 134 500 88 154 18 1 52 133 76 154 0 0 .308 .401 .660 1.061
Delgado G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 123 451 82 122 25 2 35 98 67 104 0 0 .271 .370 .568 .938

Now this is not a totally fair comparison because Delgado is having a good season, while Rowand's season has ben so-so. But it illustrates how difficult it is for good defensive centerfielders to stay healthy and to produce big offensive numbers.

It's relatively easy to find a guy you can stick at 1B who can hit. And 1B isn't demanding enough physically to really keep the player out of the lineup.

And your stats prove Howard has NO protection in the lineup, Beltran has two other guys

The nerds just hate it when people enjoy a baseball player.

The Mets have a vastly superior lineup to the Phillies too, so Beltran is getting more pitches with more guys on base. Take Beltran out of the lineup and ... He's the Beltran from Houston and KC. Good, sometimes great, not an MVP.

Yes, he's having MVP #'s, but Howard is the MVP. If Beltran isn't on the Mets .. They're still up 12-13 games. If Howard isn't on the Phillies, they're 10-11 back of the WC.

Neither of them are Pujols. :D

The Mets have a vastly superior lineup to the Phillies too, so Beltran is getting more pitches with more guys on base. Take Beltran out of the lineup and ... He's the Beltran from Houston and KC. Good, sometimes great, not an MVP.

Yes, he's having MVP #'s, but Howard is the MVP. If Beltran isn't on the Mets .. They're still up 12-13 games. If Howard isn't on the Phillies, they're 10-11 back of the WC.

Let's see...

NL team Runs Scored

1. Phillies 733
2. Mets 727

NL team Road Runs Scored

2. Phillies 395
5. Mets 324

That argument dosn't seem to hold water.

The nerds just hate it when people enjoy a baseball player.

:D

SI

Ed Wade would agree with you, as would Dusty Baker. Good company there, Cochise.

:rolleyes: Wade is a numbers geek, next!!!

Let's see...

NL team Runs Scored

1. Phillies 733
2. Mets 727

NL team Road Runs Scored

2. Phillies 395
5. Mets 324

That argument dosn't seem to hold water.

are you trying to say that Pat Burrell is better protection than Delgado?

It isn't that complicated. Yesterday in extra innings Howard comes to the plate to lead off they walk him because they have no fear of the guys behind him, that wouldn't happen to Beltran.

dola

I can't forget to mention Rowland, Chris Coste (the 33-year old rookie), and Shane Victorino all playing well.

Best of all, we got rid of two stiffs in Abreu and Bell. Now if we could just get rid of Burrell, I would be really happy.


Too bad we're stuck with that piece of shit. At least Manuel isn't afraid to put his ass on the bench.

Victorino is playing well, he should be a good platoon type starter in the future.

Meh, for all statistic debate aside, I think its finally cool as a Phillies fan to see some of these young players do some great things to keep this team in contention.

Howard, Utley, and Hamels...I heart you all.

BTW; Maybe Hamels should get some Rookie of the Year consideration if he pitches in September like he has been lately.

Hamels is throwing great, and once he gets some consitency and maturity, I think he can be an elite starter. His whole day/night splits are crazy, in a way I wonder if the issue is that he's not mature enough to get in bed early the night before a start.

are you trying to say that Pat Burrell is better protection than Delgado?

It isn't that complicated. Yesterday in extra innings Howard comes to the plate to lead off they walk him because they have no fear of the guys behind him, that wouldn't happen to Beltran.

The Phils have scored more runs than the Mets. That means their offense is better. It's actually that simple. If their offense is better, and Beltran and Howard's numbers are comparable, it means that Howard's got better guys around him protecting him and setting the table.

The Phils have scored more runs than the Mets. That means their offense is better. It's actually that simple. If their offense is better, and Beltran and Howard's numbers are comparable, it means that Howard's got better guys around him protecting him and setting the table.

Hmm..I'm not sure you are taking other things into account which product runs. Stats such as propensity of opposite teams giving runs by errors, fly-ball to ground-ball ratios, and other things. There is more to producing runs than just putting up the total number of runs scored by each team.

This is where some stat guys have it wrong. Some are almost as extreme as the scouts who say statistics have no meaning and that the "five-tool" player will always win out.

The true answer of the value of a player is likely a combination of statistics and other human factors. This is what makes a player like Ryan Howard or David Ortiz more valuable to a team than Carlos Beltran.

I'm sorry what the numbers say. If you take a layman's perspective, there is no way you could say that the Phillies offense strikes more fear into opposing pitchers than the Met's offense. For example, if you take Beltran out of the lineup, he would likely be replaced by Lastings Milledge who could possibly put up similar numbers. Beltran being out would not make the Met's any easier to face. However, if you take Howard out (or Ortiz as we've seen), the back-up is likely Randall Simon who hasn't played ball for a major league team in quite a while. Howard out of the lineup definitely makes the Phillies offense less intimidating.

But you do have some good points. Beltran is definitely an MVP-Caliber player. The debate is also a fun one.

The Phils have scored more runs than the Mets. That means their offense is better. It's actually that simple. If their offense is better, and Beltran and Howard's numbers are comparable, it means that Howard's got better guys around him protecting him and setting the table.


those run scored are by the TEAM including Howard and the three guys in front of him, we are comparing the guy who hits behind him for protection

those run scored are by the TEAM including Howard and the three guys in front of him, we are comparing the guy who hits behind him for protection

That's moronic. How many ways will you skew the facts to fit your argument.

It's very simple. Stats can lie. But every stat doesn't lie.

If you take WS Beltran is well ahead. VORP has him fairly ahead. EQA has him slightly behind.

These composite stats are telling a story. Where do you see this story as wrong?

Take issue with one of my particular arguments and shoot it down if you can.

1. Beltran is vastly more valuable defensively than Howard. Beltran is one of the top CFs in the majors and Howard is one of the worst 1B.

Any scout would tell you the same.

2. Beltran's offensive numbers are at worst slightly behind Howard's. At least as many metrics put him ahead as behind.

Even if Beltran were behind Howard offensively, it would be nowhere near making up for the vast difference in their defensive production.

3. When you compare apples to apples, Beltran comes out far ahead of Howard. Let's list the 1B that have comparable offensive production:

Pujols
Berkman
Laroche
Johnson
Delgado

Now let's look at the guys in the NL that could give you production near Beltran's:

Jones

If you can't knock down these arguments, then you have to concede Beltrans has had the better year.

So your argument is all context. You are punishing Beltran for being on a better team, which is asinine. To win the MVP, a player has to be on a good team, but not so good that there's enough credit to go to any other players?

But the players surrounding Howard have put up as many runs as the players around Beltran have...

So, then, your argument is that Howard is the MVP over Beltran because Beltran's pitching staff is better than Howard's. What the hell does that have to do with these to players?!?

Well... other than the fact that the Met staff performs a fair amount better because Beltran is patrolling center and the Philly staff performs a fair amount worse because Howard is at first.

That's moronic. How many ways will you skew the facts to fit your argument.

It's very simple. Stats can lie. But every stat doesn't lie.

If you take WS Beltran is well ahead. VORP has him fairly ahead. EQA has him slightly behind.

These composite stats are telling a story. Where do you see this story as wrong?

Take issue with one of my particular arguments and shoot it down if you can.

1. Beltran is vastly more valuable defensively than Howard. Beltran is one of the top CFs in the majors and Howard is one of the worst 1B.

Any scout would tell you the same.

2. Beltran's offensive numbers are at worst slightly behind Howard's. At least as many metrics put him ahead as behind.

Even if Beltran were behind Howard offensively, it would be nowhere near making up for the vast difference in their defensive production.

3. When you compare apples to apples, Beltran comes out far ahead of Howard. Let's list the 1B that have comparable offensive production:

Pujols
Berkman
Laroche
Johnson
Delgado

Now let's look at the guys in the NL that could give you production near Beltran's:

Jones

If you can't knock down these arguments, then you have to concede Beltrans has had the better year.

So your argument is all context. You are punishing Beltran for being on a better team, which is asinine. To win the MVP, a player has to be on a good team, but not so good that there's enough credit to go to any other players?

But the players surrounding Howard have put up as many runs as the players around Beltran have...

So, then, your argument is that Howard is the MVP over Beltran because Beltran's pitching staff is better than Howard's. What the hell does that have to do with these to players?!?

Well... other than the fact that the Met staff performs a fair amount better because Beltran is patrolling center and the Philly staff performs a fair amount worse because Howard is at first.

my argument was never who is the mvp, that remains to be seen

I was just pointing out that you seem to have blinders on when it comes to Beltran

my argument was never who is the mvp, that remains to be seen

I was just pointing out that you seem to have blinders on when it comes to Beltran

Which blinders? Beltran's not even one of my guys. I'm a Yankee fan.

--point 'em out.

Which blinders? Beltran's not even one of my guys. I'm a Yankee fan.

--point 'em out.

the fact you tried to roll out some theory of how Howard is better protected in the lineup than Beltran, and leading the league in home runs and rbis isn't a bad thing, not sure why you seem to think he is a butcher in the field but while i don't think he is getting a gold glove he isn't a butcher either.

Protection has been proven to be an overrated concept. I think Howard should be the MVP over Beltran -- higher OPS, generally more impressive in all the intangibles (yes, this somewhat contradicts my first sentence). But I wouldn't count out Albert Pujols either, who leads the league in OPS and is probably the best all-around hitter in the league.

RANDOM OPS NOTE - Would you believe that Garrett Atkins is 12th in the league in OPS, right behind Carlos Delgado and in front of Jason Bay, David Wright, Carlos Lee (before trade), Adam Dunn, and Chase Utley? Fourth in the league in doubles, 22 homers, and a .392 OBP. Seems quite impressive.

I do like it when the 'stat-heads' totally blow apart the arguments of the 'old-school' folk. A lot of people do tend to forget that defensive contributions are very important to a team as well.

Now, if the argument is that Most Valuable should go to the player who was most instrumental in getting a team to the postseason, then perhaps Howard should get if the Phils get in by a game or so, but then the argument can be made that there are a number of players in the team valuable enough that without them the team doesn't make the postseason.

....but then the argument can be made that there are a number of players in the team valuable enough that without them the team doesn't make the postseason.

Not really, its the Most Valuable Player Award, not The Valuable Enough To Help The Team Make The Playoffs Award

I think solid arguements can be made for Pujols, Beltran and Howard. I'd have no problem with any of them being named MVP.

I think Win shares is a great tool, but I also think that it is much more reliable when comparing the relative merits of two players on the same team, than it is comparing two players on different teams. I'm not a big fan of how it determines fielding win shares, but I can't really knock it since I don't have a better method to offer.

I think solid arguements can be made for Pujols, Beltran and Howard. I'd have no problem with any of them being named MVP.

I think Win shares is a great tool, but I also think that it is much more reliable when comparing the relative merits of two players on the same team, than it is comparing two players on different teams. I'm not a big fan of how it determines fielding win shares, but I can't really knock it since I don't have a better method to offer.

I agree that WS is far from perfect in calculating fielding Win Shares. But nobody would argue that Howard was more valuable defensively than Beltran.


Any stat can lie. But you can put them all together to get a clearer picture.

I have a problem with Pujols because he missed a month. He'd have to be vastly superior to the other contenders to make up for the difference.

Okay, you want numbers, here's some numbers.

Here's all that you need to know about Beltran. He is hitting .225 at home, freaking .225. Every Met who has at least 60 at bats at home is hitting better than him at home. Wright and Delgado have more home RBI's than him and Reyes is about tied.

How can an MVP be a none factor, and that's what a .225 hitter is, for half of your team's games?

dola: Or you can talk about his .278 average in clutch situations, where Howard's is .318.

Should your MVP get better or worse when the game is on the line.

I guess those "win shares" don't quite tell the whole story.

It's not about making up some little formula to try to tell the whole story. It's about know what to interpret that tells the whole story of the player.

I would put Pads' Josh Barfield up there for RotY, probably as a runner-up. Hitting a 3-run walkoff last night was great for the rook.

double dola: I guess I am getting on the Howard for MVP band wagon the more I look at it.

Here's a telling number for the stat lovers out there.

The Phillies have needed a boost after the all-star break to get into contention.

In 51 games since the all-star break Howard is hitting .360 with 25 homeruns and 63 RBI's, has a .496 on base percentage and a slugging percentage of .810.

I would say that is about what you want an MVP to do, to bring it home for you down the stretch.

Okay, you want numbers, here's some numbers.

Here's all that you need to know about Beltran. He is hitting .225 at home, freaking .225. Every Met who has at least 60 at bats at home is hitting better than him at home. Wright and Delgado have more home RBI's than him and Reyes is about tied.

How can an MVP be a none factor, and that's what a .225 hitter is, for half of your team's games?

How does that make your point, one way or the other?

Every other Met hits well at home...so Beltran doesn't need to hit well. When they go on the road, where it's harder to play, and other Mets don't hit as well...he hits very well.

How is that argument different?

double dola: I guess I am getting on the Howard for MVP band wagon the more I look at it.

Here's a telling number for the stat lovers out there.

The Phillies have needed a boost after the all-star break to get into contention.

In 51 games since the all-star break Howard is hitting .360 with 25 homeruns and 63 RBI's, has a .496 on base percentage and a slugging percentage of .810.

I would say that is about what you want an MVP to do, to bring it home for you down the stretch.

Here's how that's a stupid argument.

Why didn't he do that when they were duelling it out with the Mets for the division in June. Beltran was on a tear as the Mets pulled away.

Talking about value to your team:

The Mets top two pitchers are Pedro and Glavine. Both have had significant injuries, but were allowed to rest because the Mets have such a big lead. That lead also let them take chances on Maine and El Duque.

How can you punish Beltran for being consistently excellent. The season doesn't start at the All-Star break. The Mets won the division in before the All-Star break. Beltran was the single biggest reason for that.

Here's how that's a stupid argument.

Why didn't he do that when they were duelling it out with the Mets for the division in June. Beltran was on a tear as the Mets pulled away.

Talking about value to your team:

The Mets top two pitchers are Pedro and Glavine. Both have had significant injuries, but were allowed to rest because the Mets have such a big lead. That lead also let them take chances on Maine and El Duque.

How can you punish Beltran for being consistently excellent. The season doesn't start at the All-Star break. The Mets won the division in before the All-Star break. Beltran was the single biggest reason for that.

Looking at their splits, Beltran hasn't been consistently excellent. Howard was better in April and May, Beltran in June, even in July, Howard in August, and so far Howard in the closing month(s). So its 3.5-1.5 with 1 to go. Beltran was marginally better in the first half, while Howard has been demonstrably better in the second half. If all things were equal, Howard would be the runaway MVP, but Beltran plays on a better team. Doesn't mean Beltran doesn't deserve an MVP for it, but just saying that if everything were equal, Howard would likely get the nod.

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=136860&statType=1
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=429667&statType=1

How can you punish Beltran for being consistently excellent. The season doesn't start at the All-Star break. The Mets won the division in before the All-Star break. Beltran was the single biggest reason for that.

Consistantly Excellent? How the hell is hitting .225 at home (half of your games) consistantly excellent? Kind of a stupid arguement there.

How does that make your point, one way or the other?


How does that make the arguement? The award is not Most Valuable Road Player, it's Most Valuable Player. Last I checked the home games count just as much in the standings as the road games.

Let me get this straight. Your arguement is like a magician trying to hold the crowd's attention with one hand while the other one hides the object.

Mets record at home 43-24 - .642 winning percentage
Mets record on the road 41-28 - .594 winning percentage

David Wright is more deserved of the award on the Mets.

Consistantly Excellent? How the hell is hitting .225 at home (half of your games) consistantly excellent? Kind of a stupid arguement there.

With a .350OBP and .500SLG in the worst park in the NL. I'll take that with his unbelievable road numbers and gold glove in center.

I'll put it this way. You put eight Beltrans with league average pitching and eight Howards with league average pitching and the Beltran team would destroy the Howard team.

With a .350OBP and .500SLG in the worst park in the NL. I'll take that with his unbelievable road numbers and gold glove in center.

I'll put it this way. You put eight Beltrans with league average pitching and eight Howards with league average pitching and the Beltran team would destroy the Howard team.

No it wouldn't. You saw what happened when the Mets had two centerfielders in Beltran and Cameron - they damn near killed each other going for the ball.

Three Beltrans in the outfield, and you'd pretty quick have the Howards lashing the ball all over the gaps because there wouldn't be any Beltrans left to patrol them. :D

With a .350OBP and .500SLG in the worst park in the NL. I'll take that with his unbelievable road numbers and gold glove in center.

I'll put it this way. You put eight Beltrans with league average pitching and eight Howards with league average pitching and the Beltran team would destroy the Howard team.

You still didn't answer how that is consistently excellent. How does only his average drop like a rock at home while the rest of the team doesn't? I guess that park is only the worst place to hit if your name is Beltran.

What 8 does Beltrans versus 8 Howards have to do with MVP? Talk about trying to compare apples to oranges.

Average:
Howard .309
Beltran .286

Runs:
Beltran 113
Howard 89

RBI's:
Howard 134
Beltran 112

HR's:
Howard 53
Beltran 39

OBP:
Howard .403
Beltran .386

Slugging:
Howard .665
Beltran .623

IBB (just how feared are they):
Howard 22
Beltran 4 - I guess pitchers have no problem wanting to pitch to him

I'll put it this way. You put eight Beltrans with league average pitching and eight Howards with league average pitching and the Beltran team would destroy the Howard team.

I've read all of your posts in this thread, so I'm gonna assume that you aren't really presenting this line of thought as a valid arguement towards a MVP candidate.

This line of thinking pretty much mandates the selection of a middle infielder every year.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmF6nYqbQLTqzNOAQJkQ4zY5nYcB?slug=dw-howard090506&prov=yhoo&type=lgns


As Howard gives chase, Maris is still the man

By Dan Wetzel, Yahoo! Sports
September 5, 2006

Jeff Passan: Maris clan says Howard would be worthy of record

If Ryan Howard clubs nine more home runs this season, giving him 62, then the Philadelphia Phillies first baseman should be recognized as the single-season, 162-game home run champion.

It's as simple as that.

Maybe not for Major League Baseball, which is not planning on commemorating such a feat because, technically, three other players Barry Bonds (73), Mark McGwire (70) and Sammy Sosa (66, 64 and 63) have posted bigger numbers, surpassing the long-standing record of Roger Maris, who hit 61 in 1961.

But since when has MLB been correct about things, particularly when it comes to the use of performance-enhancing drugs?

Baseball is loath to admit that it blew it during the late 1990s and early 2000s when Bonds, McGwire and Sosa – each as juiced as a glass of squeezed oranges – made a mockery of the record book and spit in the face of Maris' accomplishment.

But every reasonable, intelligent and rational person knows otherwise. Those three's numbers were achieved not with natural skill but with superior chemistry.

And that is why people – if not the powers that be – should recognize Maris' 61 homer mark as the rightful record.

And it's why if Howard, the big-swinging second-year player, can drill nine more dingers in his final 24 games, then he takes over.

"If he breaks it, it's legit," Roger Maris' son, Rich, told Yahoo! Sports on Tuesday.

Yes, the sudden rise of this 26-year-old causes pause. As I wrote earlier this week, the fact that MLB does not test for human growth hormone or many other favored drugs means declaring any player 100 percent clean is a leap of faith. And after a summer of scandal courtesy of Floyd Landis, Marion Jones and others, it is natural to be skeptical.

But this is what we have. This is the new reality. We can either take each performance on a case-by-case basis or write off the entire operation and no longer believe any accomplishment ever again.

What we have is this: Baseball is testing for some performance-enhancing drugs and Ryan Howard has not failed any tests. Moreover, with his big frame – 6-foot-4, 250 pounds – that doesn't look bloated or strained like the previous three, and his history of being a power hitter back to high school, he at least looks clean.

Maybe he winds up burning us, but at this stage he passes both the drug test and the sniff test.

"In my mind," said Rich Maris, "I feel Ryan Howard's clean. If baseball's doing what they're supposed to be doing and say they're doing – I feel bad for people bashing him.

"Right now people should be looking at baseball saying it's cleaned up. I know if I were a baseball player, there would be no way I'd come close to touching that stuff. Look at Rafael Palmeiro. He had first-ballot Hall of Fame statistics. And then that stuff comes out."

If Rich Maris is for it, then that is good enough for me. This is a painful subject for the Maris family, who were burned by the steroid boys. They rightfully consider their father the single-season record holder and, truth be told, aren't that interested in seeing someone else break it.

Worse, they had a front row seat to watch the McGwire fraud show back in 1998, an empty uniform trying to pretend he was their dad's equal. He certainly was not.

"At the time, it was quite a feat," said Rich Maris. "We were in awe. It seemed to happen so fast. We were along for the ride like the rest of the country. Every time McGwire hit one, it was like, ‘Wow, he did it again.' And now you just look at that and laugh."

I wouldn't blame them for crying.

The truth is Roger Maris is the home run champion right now and nothing the official MLB record book says changes that.

Which is why baseball fans should flock to Howard's historic pursuit. If MLB lacks the courage and conviction to do what's right, then the people should – out of respect for Ryan Howard and out of respect for Roger Maris.

ESPN should be cutting in for each at-bat, and newspapers should be chronicling the countdown. The honest should be celebrated and the cheats ignored.

Anything less is to reward the crooked and condemn the truth.


Dan Wetzel is Yahoo! Sports' national columnist

All the MVP talk about Howard will probably be over by the end of this weekend, as my hopes of the Phils making the playoffs are now pretty well gone. They still have 10 games with Florida, and 4 with Houston. Charlie Manuel is unable to competently manage at the professional level, so I strongly doubt the team wins more than 5 of those 14 games.

Too many missed opportunities, too many blown 9th inning leads of late. Oh, and fuck you Roger Madsen.

Regarding Wetzel's column, if any of these media outlets start following Ryan Howard's chase for 62 home runs, aren't they implicitly saying that Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa were on performance-enhancing drugs? Not to say that those guys weren't juicing, but it would get really ugly for ESPN and newspapers to say that Ryan Howard is chasing the "real" record of 61 homers. Good grief.

I know that Wetzel's a columnist and is paid to write his opinion. I have no problem with him saying that he feels Maris still owns the record. To suggest that ESPN and newspapers should get involved, though, is just yapping for the sake of yapping. If ESPN and newspapers want to keep up any appearance of objective journalism, they can't do that. I guess Wetzel will get some people to complain about what ESPN and the newspapers should do, though, so his job will be done. It just seems to me that he's more concerned about his soapbox than actual logic.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmF6nYqbQLTqzNOAQJkQ4zY5nYcB?slug=dw-howard090506&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
If Rich Maris is for it, then that is good enough for me. This is a painful subject for the Maris family, who were burned by the steroid boys. They rightfully consider their father the single-season record holder and, truth be told, aren't that interested in seeing someone else break it.
Dan Wetzel is Yahoo! Sports' national columnist

Why would anyone give a rat's ass about what Rich Maris thinks? When did having a father own a MLB record become an entitlement?

To refer back to my last post in this thread, since when did defense become irrelevant? I think that Beltran's game saving catch against the wall vs. the Astros a few days back should emphasize that defense has a part to play on how good of a player you are.

And what is this talk about batting average, when everyone knows that OBP is the measure that should be looked at.

And what is this talk about batting average, when everyone knows that OBP is the measure that should be looked at.

That's the line of thinking that had Bobby Abreu up there looking for walks in key moments instead of trying to be the one to win games.

Not saying it's not important, just saying there are different ways of looking at everything.

Abreu would go up there looking to take a walk when the winning run would be in scoring position and him just reaching base would be meaningless. That adds to the OBP but not to the MVP value of a player.

^^^^
Abreu in a nutshell.

We can find extreme examples of every statistic, which is why we use others (like SLG, ISO, etc). However, OBP has the closest correlation to scoring runs, therefore it is a better metric than BA.

We can find extreme examples of every statistic, which is why we use others (like SLG, ISO, etc). However, OBP has the closest correlation to scoring runs, therefore it is a better metric than BA.


TEAM obp, yes. Individual opb, maybe. An individual's contribution to teams runs scored is impossible to acurrately peg, because any simulation considers all outcomes to be probabilistic, when in real life, none are.

Howard hit two more HR's tonight, accounting for all the runs in a 3-2 win.

Ryan Howard over the last 15 games: .464 avg, .571 OBP, 20 runs, 26 RBI's, 13 homeruns

Over the last 7 games: .538 avg, .625 OBP, 11 runs, 10 RBIs, 7 homeruns

That probably will help his win shares total.

Howard hit two more HR's tonight, accounting for all the runs in a 3-2 win.

Ryan Howard over the last 15 games: .464 avg, .571 OBP, 20 runs, 26 RBI's, 13 homeruns

Over the last 7 games: .538 avg, .625 OBP, 11 runs, 10 RBIs, 7 homeruns

That probably will help his win shares total.

Some believe in WS, some don't.

But there's no way Howard will catch Beltran with the time remaining. The problem with the other contenders in the NL is that none of them play up the middle. That's so important that they'd have to totally destroy his offensive numbers, which none of them do.

TEAM obp, yes. Individual opb, maybe. An individual's contribution to teams runs scored is impossible to acurrately peg, because any simulation considers all outcomes to be probabilistic, when in real life, none are.

"Probabilistic" sounds like "strategery" ;)

SI