Hopefully, this is just the government being overly cautious. However, at my job I've received word that government officials have reason to believe that Tropical Depression 5 is going to intensify and quickly accelerate into the gulf and could be a threat by early this upcoming week. I don't think this is anything to worry about, but at the same time, I'm going to keep an eye on it. I hadn't heard anything about it until I got the email just now that there is a "significant probability" that shelters will be opened at some point this weekend throughout the state...

Just thought I'd give a heads-up to any my fellow Gulf Coast Residents.

Thanks for this. Even from over a thousand miles away, I feel like I should keep up with this stuff better, and I don't. I'll be checking in with family members tonight to see what their plans are.

Just to be clear, this storm is still a tropical depression and is still many many miles away. Hopefully, the government is just being overly cautious, which is certainly better in many ways than a belated response.

Dola -


Just got a clarification from my boss. This storm is expected to become a strong Hurricane that will enter the gulf by early next week. It isn't expected to make landfall until either Weds or Thursday. If it looks somewhat likely that LA will be in the land fall zone, shelters will open this weekend in order to allow people "plenty of time to evacuate in a controlled fashion." Part of my job will be to provide medical coverage for some of those shelters.

Crap, we were going to head to Gulfshores, AL on Friday...

I thought this thread was going to be about Ray Nagin being insane ;)

But seriously, hope everything turns out alright for everyone in that area.

I look forward to the posibility of dineing on my spare MREs and months old water while cursing a storm for spoiling another begining to a college football season.

Oh yes, my priorities are in place.

I wonder if this one is only targeting poor black people, too.

Having a looksee at the NHC discussion from 5 PM EDT....

At that time they'd already upped it to Tropical Storm Ernesto with minimal TS strength (kept it through the 8 PM release at 40 mph). The models they're looking at are all generally pegging a path through the Carribean to Cuba over the next 72 hours. After that, they're in disagreement, so the NHC does what it usually does in this situation, compromises on all of them with a little "human intuition" thrown in. The path they pick puts it over Jamaica in 48 hours and then brushing western Cuba before reaching the Gulf sometime late Monday or Tuesday. It's also expected to reach hurricane strength by Monday. The end of the forecast has it in the middle of the Gulf by midday Wednesday and slowing down with winds probably somewhere between 85-100 mph (the official guess is 85 at 120 hours, but they're also talking that may be a little conservative).

The track looks like it's on a beeline for the Texas coast at the moment, but this far out with hurricanes, that's not likely to be where it will end up. My first guess this far out is probably somewhere between the MS/AL line and Cedar Key over in Florida. I hope, anyway (at least for Louisiana's sake, not that the rest of the Gulf doesn't deserve a break, but they can take a punch right now).

Some folks I know further south than me are concerned about the GFDL model, which seems to have been pretty accurate last year a couple of times. I hope that doesn't come to pass. Louisiana doesn't need another major hurricane. Of course no place needs one. Mississippi doesn't need one, and the Gulf Shores area is still rebuilding I think. Linkage to models.

http://maps.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_model.html

11 PM advisory has bumped the winds up a little bit. More importantly, the long-range forecast has upped the intensity a little, now to 95 mph by 120 hours. Still don't have any good sense of what it'll do once it reaches the Gulf, though. With a relatively quiet season to this point, it means the SSTs in the Gulf should provide some quality heat for the storm to work with since prior storms won't have mixed the content. It won't nearly be as warm as it probably would be in mid-to-late September after a full summer's worth of heat has accumulated, but it's a fair bet that this'll be the first Cat 3+ storm of 2006 in addition to being the first hurricane of the year.

Recon is flying to it right now, and the plan is to start flying more frequently starting tomorrow (well, today for half the country).

i really hope this thing doesn't become a strong hurricane and hit louisiana....that would just suck. Last year I got lucky with Katrina hitting a little east, and Rita hitting a little west- it seems like we are due here in the middle.

also- thanks eaglesfan for the heads up, I had no idea there was a strom heading into the gulf.

The first recon pass through the storm showed winds had stayed about the same so far (~45 mph), but they found a lower pressure (which generally means it is strengthening). The intermediate advisory also said it was getting better organized. As Eaglesfan said at the top, no need to worry too much yet, but people along the gulf coast should start paying attnetion.

also- thanks eaglesfan for the heads up, I had no idea there was a strom heading into the gulf.

Glad to be of some small service. It caught me completely off guard as well at work yesterday. My boss called this morning and she said it is now a 80-90% chance that shelters will be opened no later than Monday morning in various parts of Louisiana. If the tract holds through tomorrow with LA in the middle of the cone of uncertainty, than I might have to work tomorrow afternoon/evening as the first shelters open. At least my mom is flying home tomorrow morning. She doesn't need to experience the craziness that will ensue if we remain in the tract.

<form method="post" action="<!-- none specified -->"></form> http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/strm5_strike_720x486.jpg

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The forecasts have been consistent through the arrival into the Gulf, but they've been shifting eastward with time beyond that point, which would be good news for Louisiana as the state's now generally in the western half of the "projected" projection cone. This is I think lining up to be more and more a Pensacola/Mobile/Panhandle strike. Still, it may be close enough to adversely affect New Orleans and southeast Louisiana even without a direct hit, given the still difficult situation there at present. Remember, Katrina didn't actually HIT New Orleans, but blew in at the LA/MS border, a fair distance east of the city, and it was still strong enough to royally screw things up.

8 PM advisory has actually some very good news for Louisiana, not so good for anyone east of there. Recon flight determined that the center was much further north and east than they had previously determined. The upshot is that they've essentially shifted the forecast track north and east to match the storm's corrected position. Instead of raking Jamaica and grazing Cuba before getting into the Gulf, it's now projected to roll over Cuba for a more extended period of time and come out somewhere near Havana. From there, the storm track is definitely bending towards the Florida Panhandle area at the moment. Intensity-wise, it still looks like it'll be a Cat 3 or near there within the forecast period (120 hours), but it really depends on how much Cuba does to it if the current forecast is accurate.

The 11PM EST advisory has not changed much (5-day projected path shown below). Wolfpack mentioned that Cuba is going to play a big role in this. A prolonged stay, especially over the more mountainous eastern half, could severely weaken Ernesto. However, the sea temps and projected shear conditions are plenty conducive to a rapid intensification after it crosses Cuba. The various models are in fairly good agreement about where Ernesto will go for the next 36-48 hours, but start varying widely once Ernesto emerges into the Gulf. Everyone along the coast from Texas to the Keys still needs to watch this.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5_sm2+gif/030217W_sm.gif

As y'all can see from the above live links (which, because they're live, do not necessarily match the commentaries), it looks like I may get to experience my first Hurricane later this week.

Expires 6:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006
Statement as of 6:48 AM EDT on August 28, 2006

... Ernesto may impact portions of southern South Carolina and
southeast Georgia Thursday and Friday...

Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to move northwest across
eastern Cuba today and move towards South Florida on Tuesday.
Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane
Center... Ernesto is expected to make landfall across South
Florida Wednesday morning as a Hurricane. Ernesto is then forecast
to move north across much of the Florida East Coast Wednesday and
be positioned off Georgia and South Carolina coasts by Thursday
night as a hurricane.

Based on this track... tropical storm force winds... wind speeds of
39 to 73 mph... and heavy rain could occur over portions of South
Carolina and southeast Georgia... particularly the coastal areas...
Thursday into Friday. This includes the Charleston... Savannah and
Beaufort Metro areas. There is a slight possibility that hurricane
force winds... wind speeds in excess of 74 mph... could also impact
portions of the middle South Carolina coast... including the
Charleston Metro area.

There remains much uncertainty on the exact track... strength and
timing of Ernesto so now is a good time to review your hurricane
action plan.

Residents and visitors across southern South Carolina and
southeast Georgia should continue to monitor the latest advisories
from the National Hurricane Center and forecasts as well as
statements from the National Weather Service in Charleston. This
can be done through NOAA Weather Radio all hazards... TV or your
local news source.

I think the hurricane is going to hit land because of all of the hype eaglesfan gave to it.

As y'all can see from the above live links (which, because they're live, do not necessarily match the commentaries), it looks like I may get to experience my first Hurricane later this week.



Not to be picky, but I'd be shocked if it was actually a Hurricane by the time it gets to you ;).

It feels strange not to be glued to the TV and worrying about where the storm is going to hit. Not that I'm not worried about people I know, but it just feels strange to be so far away from it all for the first time in forever.

It feels strange not to be glued to the TV and worrying about where the storm is going to hit. Not that I'm not worried about people I know, but it just feels strange to be so far away from it all for the first time in forever.
It is a very strange feeling, isn't it? I remember feeling the same way a year ago. I think you get used to it eventually, although it hasn't happened to me yet.