Has anyone seen a player reverse directions? The prevailing wisdom has been that once a player's future potential starts going down, it will continue moving in that direction. However, check out FL Norman Beavers' development. He was rated (41/61) when initially drafted, dropped to 54 potential by the end of his first training camp, got as low as 49, but just jumped back up to 54 after his year 4 training camp.



<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>Beavers, Norman</TD><TD>FL</TD><TD>

</PRE></TD><TD>

</PRE></TD><TD>47</TD><TD>54</TD><TD>51 (4)</TD><TD>51 (-3)</TD><TD>49 (-2)</TD><TD>49 (-2)</TD><TD>54 (5)</TD><TD>54 (5)</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>

I'm curious as to what is going to happen to him next. Has anyone seen a guy stop going down and reverse directions like this?

Scout Change?

Scout improvement? I know coaches get better and worse. What about scouts?

Scout didn't change or improve. He is excellent in receivers and young talent, and has been for several seasons.

Scout didn't change or improve. He is excellent in receivers and young talent, and has been for several seasons.
Wow. You're positive no scout change? I don't recall ever seeing anything like this before.

Any thought that maybe he was/is on a downloard slide but that those veteran breakouts can happen to anyone?

I am of the opinion that we know far less about FOF than we think.

My Current wigFL QB was drafted at 28/51, dropped to 19/41 when he hit my roster. Then we went up to a max potential of 66 after 1st year training camp. Through the season he filled out to roughly full 55/66ish. Before the second season, he dropped to 56/56. Now hes 68/68, and has picked up 2 points future and current every week he plays(well, it seems to have stopped after about 10 weeks). I dont know what the hell is going on.

Scout didn't change or improve. He is excellent in receivers and young talent, and has been for several seasons.

At what point is he no longer Young Talent? Could he move beyond Young Talent and now you are seeing an analysis of him as veteran talent?

conclusion (sort of) : anything can still happen after training camp -year 1-
The jury's out for many years..

Wow. You're positive no scout change? I don't recall ever seeing anything like this before.

Any thought that maybe he was/is on a downloard slide but that those veteran breakouts can happen to anyone?1. 100% positive no scout change. Just double-checked.

2. Before this, *every* veteran breakout I've ever studied was a guy who would gain a small number of potential points for a few years, then have one big year where his potential jumped 15-20 points. I've *never* seen a player change directions. A very rare occurence, perhaps? I'll let y'all know what happends next season with him.

I'm not quite ready to declare all our beliefs about player development totally null and void. Sticking with SkyDog's example, perhaps what we are seeing is the two well-documented phenomena of player development working in opposite directions on the same player. We know that players tend to develop in one direction generally speaking (which is usualy identified early and remains constant) and we know that veteran players sometimes have a sudden "jump" in ratings (or a "drop" sometimes) somewhere around 4-9 years in experience. It still stands to reason that a player who is seeing the gradual decline that is very common might have a one-year "bump" somewhere along the way -- not quite as big as what some players see, but still within the range of what we have already identified as happening.

I'm not quite ready to declare all our beliefs about player development totally null and void. Sticking with SkyDog's example, perhaps what we are seeing is the two well-documented phenomena of player development working in opposite directions on the same player. We know that players tend to develop in one direction generally speaking (which is usualy identified early and remains constant) and we know that veteran players sometimes have a sudden "jump" in ratings (or a "drop" sometimes) somewhere around 4-9 years in experience. It still stands to reason that a player who is seeing the gradual decline that is very common might have a one-year "bump" somewhere along the way -- not quite as big as what some players see, but still within the range of what we have already identified as happening.Right, I've just never seen it work in opposite directions on the same player. Right now I'm still thinking "very rare occurrence," unless others can say with assurance that they've seen this as well.

Oh, and n case anyone is wondering, here were his at-draft numbers:


VOLATILITY: 13
SOLECISMIC: 31
40-YD DASH: 4.43
BENCH PRESS: 11
AGILITY DRILL: 6.92
CURRENT: 41
FUTURE: 61

Incidentally does it seem that breakouts tend to be players who had good combine scores, but busts are basically random, other than that they occur more often in players with high volatility?

I watched player development pretty closely during my current season. I had several people who reversed direction DURING the year. Several players lost a few points before training camp, but gained them back (in some cases with a bonus) when training camp hit.

I watched player development pretty closely during my current season. I had several people who reversed direction DURING the year. Several players lost a few points before training camp, but gained them back (in some cases with a bonus) when training camp hit.Yeah, I've seen that, but in small amounts (like dropping from 54 potential to 52 potential, then back up to 54 potential by the end of the year). I'm talking about a guy who was 61 at the draft, and steadily dropped over his first three training camps down to 49, then jumped back up to 54.

Right now I'm still thinking "very rare occurrence," unless others can say with assurance that they've seen this as well.

Me, too.

So if my hunch is right (a declining player randomly had a small 'breakout') we should see a decline next training camp.

I'm sure you'll let us know.

This might be a clue and it might be nothing at all. (Actually, here's a clue using somebody who doesn't do anything truly dramatic, so there doesn't seem to be a hidden 5-year "Hey, now your good!" rating on this guy).

Byron Jones, RT (drafted in the 4th round of a SP career)

Volatility - 83; Dash - 5.22; Sol - 34; Str - 28; Agil 7.66; Develop 20%

2010 Draft Day rating is 10/49
2010 First Roster Appearance is 9/49
2010 Post Training Camp is 13/49
2010 End of Season 20/49 (Starts 14 Games)

So far at this point, his potential has not dropped at all and he has been doing everything in his power to keep his own potential rating up. Namely,he's playing football and showing up for camp.

2011 First Roster Appearance is 20/49 (Ratings hold through season transition)
2011 Post Training Camp is 22/49
2011 End of Season 25/49 (He only starts 4 Games in 7 appearances)

His potential does not diminish at all, even though he only Starts in 4 games, but...

2012 First Roster Appearance is now 22/45 (He's dropped some...)
2012 Post Training Camp is 26/45
2012 End of Season 31/45 (He starts 6 games in 9 appearances)

His potential remains static all year.

2013 Post Training Camp 34/45

Perhaps his 2012 participation is enough to curb off the potential rating decline. In 2013 he plays in 8 games and starts 6 times.

2014 Post Training Camp 39/46

Now his potential rises by one. The only thing that has really happened is that he's continued to play football. In 2014 he ends up starting all year long and starts all 16 games.

2015 New Season Rating is 47/47
2015 Post Training Camp rating is 48/48

Now his potential is climbing slowly and his ratings are maxed out vs. that potential.

His biggest "current ratings" jumps came in the 2 years he played the most.
His biggest "potential ratings" declilnes came in the 3 years he played the least.

Perhaps the most important factor to this game of football is to play the game of football?

Keep starting the same player, we have have ratings for co-hesion, we are trying to limit player movement based on pure statistical numbers, we need to find a formula that allows the player to influence the development of his own team. Be too wishy-washy, and watch your teams attributes decline, stay loyal, and watch them imrove.

Just a thought. Just another theory, one that we kind of already know, but maybe we are missing the real importance of it?

I'm convinced that on-field performance has a lot to do with ratings progression.

I'm convinced that on-field performance has a lot to do with ratings progression.
but we also have a lot of examples of complete backups just breaking out in the middle years (5-7).

While I agree playing time is immensely important to player development, there are a lot of cases where guys just take mysterious jumps.

My example was to show this was a guy who didn't have a magic, "Look I'm good now!" rating built in. Just for reference.

My example was to show this was a guy who didn't have a magic, "Look I'm good now!" rating built in. Just for reference.I think some guys do, though.

It is the beginning of next season for Beavers (2008), and he remains at 54/54 for now.

I think some guys do, though.

I think so too. I think you have shown some examples of that.

I have one guy on record as being like that, but his potentials starting moving up immediately.

A 6th rounder Raymond Turner, SS.

16/47 - 2011 Draft Day
20/52 - 2011 First Day on Roster
23/50 - 2011 Post Training Camp
32/50 - 2011 End of Season
36/56 - 2012 Pre-Training Camp
38/56 - 2012 Post Training Camp
50/56 - 2012 End of Season
51/52 - 2013 Post Training Camp
59/59 - 2014 New Season
57/57 - 2014 Post Training Camp
57/57 - 2015 New Season
56/56 - 2015 Post Training Camp

This guy maxed out fast (and then some) but his last 3 training camps made his ratings go down...

Scouting margin of error? What if the scout resets the bars after every camp and first he undervalues him at 49, but a year later he overvalues him at 54?
Or maybe the scout underestimated the player when the experience didn't grow fast enough but later the player did develop a little bit, increasing the experience past potential.

Maybe FOF player development is more human-like (read random) then "we" thought it is.

Mentors will boost a young players ratings by up to 2 points each week he plays. I have noticed this for sure. Even if the player is maxed out.

Some mentors are better than others, too

I think I've had that happen. Granted I have changed my scouts over the years but I have had the same scout for the past few years and I'm pretty sure I've experienced this. I think potential is what it is: a guess. I have a star running back. I think he was originally projected by my other scout to having an 85 potential. The current scout that I have rated him about a 78-79 at one point and now he's a 81. I've had this happen to other players where the future potential that have gone down and up again. Perhaps the potential gets raised again when the player continues to develop and experiences a breakout season. I haven't seen current abilities drop and recover however.

Another thing I want to add. I have a 11 year veteran whom I signed to a long term contract. Initially he was a a 68/68. Perhaps due to a scout change or most likely a decline, his ratings dropped. But interestingly, he's now a 66/67. There is obviously no way he hasn't finished developing. He's been a 16 game starter for 6 seasons now and was a 14 game starter the season before that. Is the potential indicating that because of his age, some games he might actually be better than his current ratings?

I still don't think the scout's influence can be ignored here. Scouts DO improve or get worse, and we have no clue how a scout's rating converts to reported numbers. Given that the game seems to only store one set of numbers for a player, I have to believe there is some sort of algorithm that uses a scout's ratings to seed a pseudo-random modifier to the player stat scores, which can be +/-. It would not surprise me to discover that a scout going up 1 point in ability at a position would cause him to rate a player slightly lower, and another raise of a point rates the guy slightly higher.

And if the player's experience factors into it, I could see a player's ratings changing to the scout even if the only thing that changes is the player going up a year. It all depends on how Jim converts scout ratings + player data to reported scouting data on a player.

All of this leads to noise in the collected data. Plus a player could simply slip, or who knows what the random number generator decides to throw at you.

Some mentors are better than others, too
I don't doubt that for a minute, but is there a thread/discussion of it in more detail somewhere? (I don't recall seeing that one before, and I'm not feeling enthused about sorting through every thread that mentions "mentor" somewhere)

My off-hand guess would be that strong leadership/personality + mentor status makes the most effective mentor.

Do you all keep charts of your players' ratings at every part of the season?

He dropped back down to 49/49. Interesting.

Some mentors are better than others, too

Interesting comment there.

Interesting comment there.

I missed the comment first time around.

Has anyone tried to quantify this?

I want to know what got QuikSand to find this 2-year-old thread and bump it....

I think QS's posting logic is on the fritz. We need a coder to check it out.

Wasn't there another study which showed that mentors have a minimal effect? I thought I saw something in the strategy boards...