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View Full Version : Ping: Luke Hochevar


SackAttack
07-17-2006, 01:06 AM
Matt Harrington says hi (http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/baseball/mlb/kansas_city_royals/15048522.htm).

MrBug708
07-17-2006, 01:49 AM
?

MrBug708
07-17-2006, 01:50 AM
Heh..nevermind, there is a link!

kcchief19
07-17-2006, 11:31 AM
I suspected Hochevar was a putz, but this clinches it.

It also continually amazes me that athletes continue to hitch their wagons to Scott Boras. Sure, he can Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon big contracts -- so could I -- but it really makes you wonder how often his "hardball" negotiating tactics leave money on the table because of him.

Matt Harrington is working at Target, when he could have been a millionaire. I know Boras wasn't his first agent, but Boras sure f-ed up the remainder of his career.

I hope Dayton Moore shows Ladnier and the rest of the scouting staff that made Hochevar our No. 1 pick the door. What a bunch of maroons.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 12:13 PM
I suspected Hochevar was a putz, but this clinches it.

It also continually amazes me that athletes continue to hitch their wagons to Scott Boras. Sure, he can Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon big contracts -- so could I -- but it really makes you wonder how often his "hardball" negotiating tactics leave money on the table because of him.

Matt Harrington is working at Target, when he could have been a millionaire. I know Boras wasn't his first agent, but Boras sure f-ed up the remainder of his career.

I hope Dayton Moore shows Ladnier and the rest of the scouting staff that made Hochevar our No. 1 pick the door. What a bunch of maroons.
Boras has for the most part, made his clients more money than they would have otherwise - Matt Harrington notwithstanding. Everyone was carping when Hochevar turned down $3 mil last year - this year, he'll get at least $4M. For many of these kids, this could be it - many prospects never make it to the majors. I'll be damned if I don't blame em for trying to extract every penny that they can.

SackAttack
07-17-2006, 12:25 PM
Boras has for the most part, made his clients more money than they would have otherwise - Matt Harrington notwithstanding. Everyone was carping when Hochevar turned down $3 mil last year - this year, he'll get at least $4M. For many of these kids, this could be it - many prospects never make it to the majors. I'll be damned if I don't blame em for trying to extract every penny that they can.

He turned down $3m and demanded $4m last year.

The Royals drafted him willing to pay him the $4m, and they're turning that down.

This is sort of Harrington-plus, in that Harrington kept turning down contracts because none of them met the $4.95m threshold he wanted. Hochevar just doesn't know when to say enough is enough. I'm sure Boras is whispering something in his ear about maybe getting $5 million. Or $6 million.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 12:27 PM
He turned down $3m and demanded $4m last year.

The Royals drafted him willing to pay him the $4m, and they're turning that down.

This is sort of Harrington-plus, in that Harrington kept turning down contracts because none of them met the $4.95m threshold he wanted. Hochevar just doesn't know when to say enough is enough. I'm sure Boras is whispering something in his ear about maybe getting $5 million. Or $6 million.

So ? If he can get it, more power to him.

SackAttack
07-17-2006, 12:33 PM
So ? If he can get it, more power to him.

And if he can't, he's going to be working at Target, maybe K-Mart, if he keeps listening to Boras and his ilk.

At 22 years old, if he misses another season, he's edging closer to not even being a prospect anymore. He's not there yet, but a soon-to-be-23 holdout and a 20-year-old holdout aren't in the same camp, say.

At some point, take the damn money - it'll set you up for life, and if you ARE that good, you'll make many millions more over the life of your career.

It beats $10/hour stocking shelves.

kcchief19
07-17-2006, 12:38 PM
Boras has for the most part, made his clients more money than they would have otherwise - Matt Harrington notwithstanding. Everyone was carping when Hochevar turned down $3 mil last year - this year, he'll get at least $4M. For many of these kids, this could be it - many prospects never make it to the majors. I'll be damned if I don't blame em for trying to extract every penny that they can.
I challenge anyone to prove the bolded part of that statement. As I said, it's easy to point toward starts like Beltran, Damon, A-Rod, and whatnot and say he's successful. I'd contend that in most cases, a trained chimp could have negotiated those deals and gotten comparable money.

It's easy to say Hochevar turned down $3 million last year and he'll get $4 million this year. But we can't say that right now, since he hasn't signed the contract or given any indication he'll sign the contract. Trust me -- the Royals have gone as high they will go. I think if Hochevar doens't sign very soon, the offer will go down and he'll end up in the same spiral Harrington ended up in. Even if he gets $4 million from the Royals, there are a lot of baseball people who will tell you that his development has been irrepairably ruined by this holdout. So even if Hochevar signs now, who is to say that he hasn't costed himself millions more down the road by never fulling developing?

You look over the list of Scott Boras clients, and you start to see more problems. You think JD Drew might have benefitted from better career management? Boras -- eventually -- made him short-term money, but Drew clearly isn't the player he projected to be, and I think you can link that directly to his stunted development holding out.

I think Boras does one thing extremely well -- he sells himself to his clients. Look again at Harrington -- that dumbass pretty much followed Boras straight into the toilet. He talks these guys up, builds them up and kisses their ass so much that they come to believe that Boras is the only one looking out for them and everyone else is trying to screw them.

Boras does another thing extremely well -- manage his clients in the short term. Scott Boras doesn't give a fuck about his client's next contract -- he only cares about this one. He wants to Luke Hochevar $5 million right now because he wants his dime off that contract. He doesn't care if Hochevar's development is screwed and he never becomes anything because he knows the next six years are a crapshoot -- maybe the guy will blossom, maybe he will bust. If he's a star, he'll be there to negotiate the deal. If he busts, he'll try to get a commission for placing the guy with a job at Target.

I have never seen Boras make a single move that benefits his client down the road. He only cares about the right now. He knows that there is no guarantee that Hochevar will become a free agent in six years and make a lot of money.

I understand why players fall under his influence. But there is no reason to believe that Scott Boras clients are anymore successful at becoming major league players than anybody else, and I think there is plenty of reason to believe that his tactics can cost his clients signficantly down the road. But the continue to follow him like lemmings.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 12:38 PM
And if he can't, he's going to be working at Target, maybe K-Mart, if he keeps listening to Boras and his ilk.

At 22 years old, if he misses another season, he's edging closer to not even being a prospect anymore. He's not there yet, but a soon-to-be-23 holdout and a 20-year-old holdout aren't in the same camp, say.

At some point, take the damn money - it'll set you up for life, and if you ARE that good, you'll make many millions more over the life of your career.

It beats $10/hour stocking shelves.

And if you aren't, that extra $1 million will be pretty significant - if you think you can get it, why not ? Also, the rumor is that Selig has asked them to wait - no no 1 pick has signed this early in the last few years.

kcchief19
07-17-2006, 12:41 PM
And if he can't, he's going to be working at Target, maybe K-Mart, if he keeps listening to Boras and his ilk.

At 22 years old, if he misses another season, he's edging closer to not even being a prospect anymore. He's not there yet, but a soon-to-be-23 holdout and a 20-year-old holdout aren't in the same camp, say.

At some point, take the damn money - it'll set you up for life, and if you ARE that good, you'll make many millions more over the life of your career.

It beats $10/hour stocking shelves.
That's a much shorter way to explain it than I just took.

Personally, I'd take $4 million (or $3 million last year) and bank on my ability to score big bucks in six years. Hochevar is gambling that not only can he get another $1 million or more now, but that sitting out won't ruin his career.

SackAttack
07-17-2006, 12:46 PM
That's a much shorter way to explain it than I just took.

What can I say? It's a talent. :D

Personally, I'd take $4 million (or $3 million last year) and bank on my ability to score big bucks in six years. Hochevar is gambling that not only can he get another $1 million or more now, but that sitting out won't ruin his career.

Crapshoot, this is what I'm trying to say. What can you do with $5 million over the course of your life that $4 million won't do for you? He's risking throwing away tens of millions of dollars for an extra seven figures.

That is the epitome of throwing away the bird in the hand for the two in the bushes.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 01:38 PM
What can I say? It's a talent. :D



Crapshoot, this is what I'm trying to say. What can you do with $5 million over the course of your life that $4 million won't do for you?

You're kidding, right ? a 20% increase in assets isn't significant ? An annuity based of a $5 million base (assuming a 7% yield) gives you $350K a year - one based of a $4 million base gives you $280K per year. That extra million dollars is huge, and in his situation, given TINSTAAPP, I'd want to milk the initial contract for what its worth.

It seems to me that a lot of this criticism comes from the approach that its a lot of money either way. To put it bluntly - it isn't - that extra million dollars is worth a significant amount, and it seems absurd to me to ask Hochevar to give it up, when he may never again have a big contract.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 01:40 PM
That's a much shorter way to explain it than I just took.

Personally, I'd take $4 million (or $3 million last year) and bank on my ability to score big bucks in six years. Hochevar is gambling that not only can he get another $1 million or more now, but that sitting out won't ruin his career.

You would - I woudn't. Doesn't make Hochevar a "putz" or anything like it. He's sat out a year, and it didn't hurt him - what's an extra 2 months going to do ?

SackAttack
07-17-2006, 01:55 PM
You would - I woudn't. Doesn't make Hochevar a "putz" or anything like it. He's sat out a year, and it didn't hurt him - what's an extra 2 months going to do ?

Cause him to wind up with nothing this year and see future years' draft stock plummet because, as you say: TINSTAAPP?

He's on a diminishing returns slider at this point. If he holds out, next year, he comes back, and maybe instead of being a first rounder or a sandwich pick, he's a third rounder. Or a tenth. And I guarantee you he won't sniff close to that kind of money in those positions unless The Boss goes batshit insane.

A 25% increase in assets is great.

Unless it becomes a 100% decrease in assets.

Which is more valuable to you? Throwing away a guaranteed $4 million because you MIGHT be able to get $5 million, and settling for that $10/hour job for the rest of your life, or taking the $4 million - which, as you say, would be worth $280k/year to him if the TINSTAAPP principle kicks in?

Hell, look at it this way. The Rockies were willing to give Harrington something like $3 million plus a guaranteed call-up - which would have started his arbitration clock ticking and sent him on a faster track to his first real free agency contract.

If you want to milk that contract, why not meet the Royals halfway and do the same thing? Take the money they're offering, but insist on a major-league callup clause that gets you to the big money faster if you perform.

An extra million bucks is a big deal, but lint in your pocket if you persist in following the Matt Harrington path doesn't do you a god damned thing.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 02:08 PM
Right Sack - it may turn out to be the wrong decision - neither you or I know this. Your point about arbitration is a legitimate one, but we don't know if he will get there - at all - which is all the more reason to maximize this contract. A this point, it seems clear that the Royals will pay at least $4 mil - probably more, to sign him - they would lose whatever little face they have if they don't. And I don't think Boras has any intentions of him holding out a second year - I expect him to sign by January. But yeah, we'll just have to wait and see. My guess is that the final bonus number will end up in the $4.5 million range.

kcchief19
07-17-2006, 03:15 PM
You would - I woudn't. Doesn't make Hochevar a "putz" or anything like it. He's sat out a year, and it didn't hurt him - what's an extra 2 months going to do ?
You would turn down $4 million and play in the Independent League for a few thousand dollars while risking an injury? He's already being offered more money than players taken ahead of him. He's won. The fact that he won't sign -- and that Boras won't even respond to the Royals offer -- is evidence enough that he's a putz in my book.

The offer from the Royals is essentially a take it or leave deal. I imagine that if Hochevar doesn't sign in the next few weeks, the offer will be off the table. No one the Royals sign him in January for $4.5 million. He'll be lucky to get $2 million in January. They would rather pass on a guy who has held out for two years and put that money into their system than take a huge gamble on a putz.

Maybe it'll work out for him. But if he doesn't sign in the next few weeks, I think his career is over. It will absolutely be Matt Harrington all over again, right down to teams drafting him out of spite. The Yankees drafted Harrington one year and didn't even offer him a contract, but since they held his draft rights no one else could sign him either.

SackAttack
07-17-2006, 04:08 PM
You would turn down $4 million and play in the Independent League for a few thousand dollars while risking an injury? He's already being offered more money than players taken ahead of him. He's won. The fact that he won't sign -- and that Boras won't even respond to the Royals offer -- is evidence enough that he's a putz in my book.

So who was taken higher than #1 overall, kcchief? I'm dying to know. :D

kcchief19
07-17-2006, 04:57 PM
So who was taken higher than #1 overall, kcchief? I'm dying to know. :D
Excellent question! Kind of blunts my argument, eh?

But then again, it doesn't. The Royals took Hochevar for "signability" because they believed that since he was essentially damaged goods they could sign him for less than say Miller or Lincoln. It was an idiotic move by the Royals believing that either Boras or Hochevar would be honest with them.

Clearly the No. 1 goal of Hochevar and Boras is not getting him signed to a $4 million contract and get him started on his professional career. The No. 1 goal is to holdout for as much as possible because Boras knows this kid won't be worth a minor-league contract in six years. Might as well score now.

I still think it backfires because I think the Royals have gone as high as they will go. If he doesn't sign in two weeks, I think the Royals pull the offer and will let Boras and Hochevar come crawling back begging for $3 million. As a Royals fan, I frankly don't want to see him in a Royals uniform. But if I do, I don't want to see them blow that kind of money on a kid who clearly cares more about money than baseball and is pulled around by his dick by his agent.

Crapshoot
07-17-2006, 07:47 PM
Excellent question! Kind of blunts my argument, eh?

But then again, it doesn't. The Royals took Hochevar for "signability" because they believed that since he was essentially damaged goods they could sign him for less than say Miller or Lincoln. It was an idiotic move by the Royals believing that either Boras or Hochevar would be honest with them.



Horseshit - it may be accurate with Miller, but was not with Lincoln, who settled for $3M - they though Hochevar was the best. I've seen no evidence from Hochevar's side that he would settle for less than his asking price before the draft. The Royals' mistake is not Luke's.




Clearly the No. 1 goal of Hochevar and Boras is not getting him signed to a $4 million contract and get him started on his professional career. The No. 1 goal is to holdout for as much as possible because Boras knows this kid won't be worth a minor-league contract in six years. Might as well score now.


What the hell is wrong with that ? Am I supposed to be charitable to you in business ? They [Hochevar and Boras] know , like I've said ad nauseum, that there is a risk he might not make it - you have to maximize your first contract, because it may be your last.



I still think it backfires because I think the Royals have gone as high as they will go. If he doesn't sign in two weeks, I think the Royals pull the offer and will let Boras and Hochevar come crawling back begging for $3 million. As a Royals fan, I frankly don't want to see him in a Royals uniform. But if I do, I don't want to see them blow that kind of money on a kid who clearly cares more about money than baseball and is pulled around by his dick by his agent.

Not a chance - I'd be glad to place a wager with you on this. And I find your sentiment to be what I've come to expect from you (and I genuinely don't mean this in a "rude" way) - you always expect a player to defer his interests for the team. Its business - to expect the kid to say "aw shucks, pay me whatever you want" is absurd. I love baseball, but someone is going to be making that money - why it shouldn't be the player, I don't know.

Crapshoot
08-03-2006, 01:14 PM
Update: Hochevar signed today....

Crapshoot
08-03-2006, 01:17 PM
dola,
he signed at over $5.3 million - well worth it for the holdout http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/262111.html

At this price though, the Royals might have been better off taking Miller at $7 mil - but hey, he instantly becomes their no 2 prospect.

SackAttack
08-03-2006, 01:18 PM
Doesn't say what kind of a bonus he got, but it does say he signed a major league contract.

My guess is, that was the compromise. Took the $4m the Royals were offering, but with a major league contract, his arbitration clock is ticking right away.

Sounds kind of familiar:

If you want to milk that contract, why not meet the Royals halfway and do the same thing? Take the money they're offering, but insist on a major-league callup clause that gets you to the big money faster if you perform.

A step beyond what I proposed, even.

SackAttack
08-03-2006, 01:20 PM
dola,
he signed at over $5.3 million - well worth it for the holdout http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/262111.html

I don't see where that's necessarily an increase over what he was offered in terms of bonus money.

Major league minimum is around $300k. If he got a $4m bonus, and close to $5.3m in guaranteed money, then it's probably a 4-year major league contract at the minimum with the original $4m signing bonus.

dervack
08-03-2006, 09:20 PM
Hmmm, I read it as 5.3 million over 4 years, with a signing bonus of 3.5 million. I'm probably wrong.

kcchief19
08-03-2006, 10:20 PM
Hmmm, I read it as 5.3 million over 4 years, with a signing bonus of 3.5 million. I'm probably wrong.
Yes, it was a $3.5 million signing bonus plus a major league contract ($300k times six years equals $1.8 million) for a total of $5.3 million over six years.

It's a good deal for Hochevar if he sucks, a bad deal if pans out. It has escalator clauses bassed on performance and being on the major league roster. But if he becames a reliable major league starter, he won't be able to break the bank in arbitration because he's already signed.

I'm not certain about his free agency clock -- my understanding is that only 25-man roster time counts toward free agency, not 40-man roster time. The major league contract just guarantees he'll make $300k per year instead of $1,100 per month.

If Hochevar performs as expected, he won't make much more than he would otherwise. If he is in the majors next season or in 2007, he would already be making major league money.

Boras will tell him that he got him $5.3 million instead of the $3 million with the Dodgers and Luke will think Boras is great. And Boras is great if Hochevar sucks. If he wins 20 games, this will be a bad deal for him. So I'm fine with it.

DeToxRox
08-03-2006, 10:20 PM
Well, this should help get things in motion with Miller.

SackAttack
08-04-2006, 12:35 AM
I'm not certain about his free agency clock -- my understanding is that only 25-man roster time counts toward free agency, not 40-man roster time. The major league contract just guarantees he'll make $300k per year instead of $1,100 per month.

But if it's a six-year deal, that takes him straight into free agency at the end of the deal. They basically bought out his arbitration years.

dervack
08-04-2006, 03:12 AM
I still think you guys are wrong, but I'll defer to you. The way I read the deal is this. Dude gets paid 3.5 million up front. Then over the next 4 years, he'll have 5.3 million spread over those years. Scott Boras isn't stupid to give up the guys 3 arby years. Maybe one, but not all 3.

SackAttack
08-04-2006, 03:29 AM
I still think you guys are wrong, but I'll defer to you. The way I read the deal is this. Dude gets paid 3.5 million up front. Then over the next 4 years, he'll have 5.3 million spread over those years. Scott Boras isn't stupid to give up the guys 3 arby years. Maybe one, but not all 3.

dervack, I read it as four as well (the article I read earlier today), but my most recent post was in light of kcchief's "six years" comment. If he's right, then it bought out his arbitration years and he goes straight to free agency when his contract is done.

However, I'm fairly certain he's not getting almost $9 million here. I think $3.5 million is the bonus and the rest is the major league minimum for each year of the deal.

sovereignstar
08-04-2006, 03:37 AM
His contract also is believed to have escalator clauses in it for being on the 25-man big league roster, which could swell the overall value of the deal to close to $7 million.

.

dervack
08-04-2006, 03:46 AM
dervack, I read it as four as well (the article I read earlier today), but my most recent post was in light of kcchief's "six years" comment. If he's right, then it bought out his arbitration years and he goes straight to free agency when his contract is done.

However, I'm fairly certain he's not getting almost $9 million here. I think $3.5 million is the bonus and the rest is the major league minimum for each year of the deal.
Yeah, maybe that's what it is. 1.8 million over 4 years, which leaves two arbitration years.

dervack
08-04-2006, 03:56 AM
Dola,

However, if the deal is just like Pelfrey's, it doesn't necessarily take him through the first year of arbitartion. The way Pelfrey's deal works, is that the deal is for 2006-09. If he stays on the major league roster from 2007-09, then the deal is done and he will be arby eligible after 09, and have 3 arby years. I think Luke's is the same. If he comes up in 07, he will have 3 arby years. It's actually a very smart deal for him, as it stands.

stevew
08-04-2006, 04:41 AM
Being on the 40 man roster starts his option clock I believe. Meaning he'll be out of minor league options within 3 years, insuring he is on their roster or cut. I would assume this is "year one" of the deal. So he probably gets the prorated minimum this year(roughly 100k) and I would guess salaries of roughly 300k, 600k, 800k. Escalator clauses on those last 2 years probably double the amount he gets paid in both of those years, taking it very close to 7 million.

Crapshoot
08-04-2006, 09:16 AM
Dola,

However, if the deal is just like Pelfrey's, it doesn't necessarily take him through the first year of arbitartion. The way Pelfrey's deal works, is that the deal is for 2006-09. If he stays on the major league roster from 2007-09, then the deal is done and he will be arby eligible after 09, and have 3 arby years. I think Luke's is the same. If he comes up in 07, he will have 3 arby years. It's actually a very smart deal for him, as it stands.

"". Boras is not giving up 3 arb years for the min. Hochevar got himself a good deal.

kcchief19
08-04-2006, 10:00 AM
dervack, I read it as four as well (the article I read earlier today), but my most recent post was in light of kcchief's "six years" comment. If he's right, then it bought out his arbitration years and he goes straight to free agency when his contract is done.

However, I'm fairly certain he's not getting almost $9 million here. I think $3.5 million is the bonus and the rest is the major league minimum for each year of the deal.
We haven't seen the specifics of the deal yet, but the last part is closer to my understanding of the deal -- $3.5 million is guaranteed, plus the major-league minimum for the length of the contract, which we don't know what that is. The reasoning I'm hearing for the $5.3 million guaranteed is that he is guaranteed the major league minimum for the lenght of the contract regardless of whether he every plays in the major leagues, hence the $300,000 times six years.

The escalator clauses only kick in if he is on the major league roster for extended periods of time, so it's not guranteed money. In that sense, it would appear that it's like the Pelfrey deal. Locally it's been reported there are incentives as well that I understand would cover possible arbitration years.

I think Steve is right on the option clock -- that's the only thing that impacts this deal regarding being on the 40-man roster. He'll still have to have three years on the 25-man to reach arbitration, six for free gency. It's unclear how many if any arbitration years this contract covers.

How much of a victory this is or isn't for anybody is up for debate. Personally, I think this is the kind of contract that's made Scott Boras famous -- it looks like he's going the player a huge favor, but he's really not getting what he thinks.

Sitting out a year essentially got Hochevar an extra $500,000 in bonus money plus $1.8 million deferred over six years. Had he signe last year, he would have had $3 million guaranted one year earlier. Delaying signing a year means he will be one year older than he would normally be upon reaching arbitration, free agency and his future contracts, which essentially cut off a year of his career. In addition, he hasn't played against high-caliber competition for a year, which will likely slow his development curve getting him to the major leagues slower than he would have otherwise have gotten there. But that's not what Scott Boras cares about -- Scott Boras cares about the current contract he's negotiating, his commission, and how he can structure a deal to make himself look good. He doesn't care about the player's career or future contract.

When you take all of that into consideration, I stand by my original assessment -- this was a great deal and move by Hochevar if he busts and never cuts it as a major league pitcher; it was a dumb move if he makes it. From an insurance standpoint, job well done by Boras.

Crapshoot
08-04-2006, 10:44 AM
Sitting out a year essentially got Hochevar an extra $500,000 in bonus money plus $1.8 million deferred over six years. Had he signe last year, he would have had $3 million guaranted one year earlier. Delaying signing a year means he will be one year older than he would normally be upon reaching arbitration, free agency and his future contracts, which essentially cut off a year of his career. In addition, he hasn't played against high-caliber competition for a year, which will likely slow his development curve getting him to the major leagues slower than he would have otherwise have gotten there. But that's not what Scott Boras cares about -- Scott Boras cares about the current contract he's negotiating, his commission, and how he can structure a deal to make himself look good. He doesn't care about the player's career or future contract.

When you take all of that into consideration, I stand by my original assessment -- this was a great deal and move by Hochevar if he busts and never cuts it as a major league pitcher; it was a dumb move if he makes it. From an insurance standpoint, job well done by Boras.

I think your bitterness is shining through here. Boras wants to be the kid's agent - but he (and the kid) recognize that this is potentially his last contract - you never know. What's he done is guarantee the kid will make at least $5.3 million as opposed to $4 million. Of course its a trade off involving security and upside - but its a good deal for Hochevar. If he does well, the $7 million is probably what he would have earned to begin with, and he would still have FA and arb to look forward to.

dervack
08-04-2006, 03:01 PM
We haven't seen the specifics of the deal yet, but the last part is closer to my understanding of the deal -- $3.5 million is guaranteed, plus the major-league minimum for the length of the contract, which we don't know what that is. The reasoning I'm hearing for the $5.3 million guaranteed is that he is guaranteed the major league minimum for the lenght of the contract regardless of whether he every plays in the major leagues, hence the $300,000 times six years.

The escalator clauses only kick in if he is on the major league roster for extended periods of time, so it's not guranteed money. In that sense, it would appear that it's like the Pelfrey deal. Locally it's been reported there are incentives as well that I understand would cover possible arbitration years.

I think Steve is right on the option clock -- that's the only thing that impacts this deal regarding being on the 40-man roster. He'll still have to have three years on the 25-man to reach arbitration, six for free gency. It's unclear how many if any arbitration years this contract covers.

How much of a victory this is or isn't for anybody is up for debate. Personally, I think this is the kind of contract that's made Scott Boras famous -- it looks like he's going the player a huge favor, but he's really not getting what he thinks.

Sitting out a year essentially got Hochevar an extra $500,000 in bonus money plus $1.8 million deferred over six years. Had he signe last year, he would have had $3 million guaranted one year earlier. Delaying signing a year means he will be one year older than he would normally be upon reaching arbitration, free agency and his future contracts, which essentially cut off a year of his career. In addition, he hasn't played against high-caliber competition for a year, which will likely slow his development curve getting him to the major leagues slower than he would have otherwise have gotten there. But that's not what Scott Boras cares about -- Scott Boras cares about the current contract he's negotiating, his commission, and how he can structure a deal to make himself look good. He doesn't care about the player's career or future contract.

When you take all of that into consideration, I stand by my original assessment -- this was a great deal and move by Hochevar if he busts and never cuts it as a major league pitcher; it was a dumb move if he makes it. From an insurance standpoint, job well done by Boras.
I still don't see how you're coming up with 300,000 for 6 years? It's a 4-year deal. He could still get 3 arby years. In those 3 years, he will probably make more than 300,000. How are you coming up with 300,000 over 6 years?

sterlingice
08-05-2006, 11:01 AM
I assumed he just got his 4 years of $300K and a $4M bonus for $5.2M guaranteed. So, really, the holdout got him a few hundred K. But the "downside" is the guaranteed major league contract.

Frankly, I think getting a major league contract is a bad idea. I just don't see the benefit for the player. Sure, he should be good enough to be in the rotation in 3 years. But, again, with young pitchers you just never know so if he doesn't progress as expected, by the end of the 3rd year, he could be enjoying mop up duty in the bullpen because his contract doesn't allow him to hone his skill some more in AA or AAA.

SI

DeToxRox
08-05-2006, 11:59 AM
Andrew Miller signs a 4 year deal with the Tigers worth a bit more then Hochevar got. The funny thing is Dombrowski said he will be a September call up and he will pitch in the bigs this season in relief in September.

Amazing.