2020 Belmont Stakes

[Arles]

First leg of the triple crown (odd to say Belmont for this) is tomorrow. The favorite (#8 Tiz the Law) looks like a tough one to beat. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 3-5 by race time (he's 6-5 right now).

Given we don't have a ton of live sports, I've looked at this field pretty closely. I think the #8 probably wins (and will have them on top of some Exactas with longer shots), but here are some horses I like for the current price:

#9 Dr. Post (7-1) - reminds me a little of Sir Winston from last year. A Todd Pletcher horse who is the son of Quality Road. He's won his last two races and looked very good. Not bad value for 7-1.

#2 Sole Volante (11-1) - Crazy story as he was purchased for 20K and now could win. He was around 9-2 earlier and I wasn't too excited about price. But, near 10-1 is a good value and he is probably the 2nd or 3rd best horse on paper.

Longer shots:
#4 Modernist (18-1) - Trained by Bill Mott. Was knocked for getting 3rd in Louisiana, but he ran from the 14 post and had to run wider. He shouldn't have that issue at post 4. He's had some great workouts this week and won the Risen Star race at 12-1, so you never know.

#10 Pneumatic (25-1) -These odds seem pretty steep for a horse that has run some good races. Maybe it's the 10 spot? He's the son of Uncle Mo and trained by Steve Asmussen. Then you add in how he went neck and neck with Maxfield (would be 1B here to Tiz if he didn't get hurt). You can watch the 2020 Matt Winn below. Maxfield (#10) was one of my favorite horses and Pneumatic (#2) kept with him until the very end. It's a shame Maxfield got hurt:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2LZnkCFUJhs" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

What do you guys think?

[QuikSand]

Nice setup. I'll look more closely at PNEUMATIC based on your hype. Already sizing up MODERNIST on my own to be on my tickets.

Hard to see how we beat the favorite if everyone just runs to form. So, who has arrows pointing toward a big leap forward? At this age, I'd be thinking about a horse off a layoff - not what I usually like, but if the works are there, maybe there's a chance for a 10+ point jump in speed figures, or the like.

So, who? From "the odds must be crazy" column, what about #6 FORE LEFT? Solid win at a "group 3" in Dubai, whatever that means, but we really don't have a speed fig for him since a 90 in November (a good fig for the fall, it's about where the favorite was at that time). Throw out the turf try, and give whatever credit is due for the win in Dubai - now he's out drilling a 59-flat bullet workout back at Belmont, where he won for fun in his stakes debut, his only time on the track . Sounds like the resume of a mid-level 9-1 shot, right? Morning line of 30-1, and nobody's going to like him. Could go up from there.

I'll use the #1 as a pace factor, as well, not unthinkable he just rails the whole thing, pretending it's actually just the Preakness.

Tentative ticket for me:

6,8
1,4,6,8
1,3,4,6,8,10
1,3,4,6,8,10
=
96 units

Probably some triples built from the same infrastructure

[weegeebored]

Don't forget that this year's Belmont is 9F around one turn, not a mile and a half.

[Arles]

Yeah, I like the #6 as well. I'll be setting up my bets shortly

[Arles]

I did a $1 tri with 8,9,all and only netted out about $50 when you factor in my other bets. I had a bigger bet that included 8,9,10 - I just needed Pneumatic to hold on!

[QuikSand]

I ended up using the 1 on top in my bets, so I got a prerry healthy charge at around 6f when it was still sitting as 1-6-8...

Alas, no shock in the final outcome. I overrated the effect on only one turn, that straightaway is just forever long at Belmont.

[Senator]

I have ( for me ) a sizable part of MAX PLAYER, so would like some good thoughts as he makes his way to the Kentucky Derby.


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[QuikSand]

I have ( for me ) a sizable part of MAX PLAYER, so would like some good thoughts as he makes his way to the Kentucky Derby.


So, you bought shares in SportBLX, I presume? I recall reading that and thinking it was an interesting "investor relations" angle.

Good luck.

[Senator]

Basically, I have a friend involved in Annestes Farms, and knew about this on the previous offering before the Belmont. I have 10k invested, which, for me is a sizable investment in a high risk venture. (I like much more solid returns on my investments) but to have 100 shares of a horse in the Triple Crown plus breeding if he does well, scratched my itch enough to do it. Fools sometimes get lucky.


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[Senator]

He&rsquo;s running the Travers on Saturday so we will get a good feel for where he is at.


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[Senator]

3rd - far away from a beauty of a horse Tiz the Law.


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[GrantDawg]

3rd - far away from a beauty of a horse Tiz the Law.


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How do you feel about today, Senator? MAX PLAYER got a really good draw.

[Senator]

He&rsquo;s a slow starter, so I think he&rsquo;ll get pinched by first turn and the field collapses. Tiz is really just an exceptional horse, and I don&rsquo;t see us beating him unless he lays an egg or has a bad ride. Would love to see a quality top 3 outing, showing form, and getting a clean and safe ride.
But the joy of all this is you never know. I put 200 to win on a 30-1 and of course my ownership percentage.
I am stoic outwardly, nervous internally, and having fun.


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[QuikSand]

My main ticket for the day:

2 12 17
2 12 16 17 18
2 10 12 16 17 18

Let's go get him, Senator!

[JPhillips]

Don't remember a horse falling like that.

[Senator]

Wow Quik, LETS GO!


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[Senator]

5th. Poor start was not good for a come from behind horse. He had a game stretch run passing many to finish 5th but he didn&rsquo;t have the speed needed to be a threat.


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[Senator]

Thanks for the vote of confidence, Quik, sorry we let you down.


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[QuikSand]

Okay, Preakness Day. Big whoop.

I'm using the 10 PNEUMATIC as my value play, mixed into and atop tickets with all the favorites/logicals. A ton of speed in this field, at least a couple to take a shot at running with AUTHENTIC, my 10 fits the profile as maybe good enough to pick up the pieces if they all tire out on the front end, he shouldn't be more than 5-6 lenghts off, not a deep bomber, that rarely works at Pimlico.

I'll use our guy MAX PLAYER again on similar logic, but he's my second choice in that profile here, and will factor in my tickets accordingly.

Hmmm...better get a simple XBox on those two, just in case, right? That should light it up.

[QuikSand]

PPs online: Preakness PPs | Preakness Stakes | Horse Racing (https://www.scribd.com/document/478303109/Preakness-PPs#from_embed?campaign=VigLink&ad_group=xxc1xx&source=hp_affiliate&medium=affiliate)

[GrantDawg]

Get it, Quick. Win some money today.

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[GrantDawg]

A Philly did it!

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[QuikSand]

For anyone horseracing inclined, Belmont closes its meet today, with a mandatory payout Pick 6 and a $400K+ carryover from prior days. Today will be a "plus pool" unless it gets totally swamped by nationwide bettors.

I am working on a ticket myself. Will share thoughts once I have some. I like days like this a lot.

[QuikSand]

Past Performances just in case anyone needs them...
Error (https://gofile.io/d/a7Xxim)

[QuikSand]

From the just-in-case files:

1,4,7
4,7
2,3,4
4
3,6,10
7,11


1,4,11
2,4
4,8
4
6,7,10
8,11


4,7
4
4,8,12
4
4
3,4,5

[QuikSand]

well, that Sunday Pick 6 was fun...my main ticket was alive through 4 races and we got the right to dream a little bit... one of our horses was scratched in the 5th leg, and we get assigned the favorite, but the favorite wasn't clear until mid-race and the winner had just been nosed out by another horse with some late money, otherwise the dream would have lived on...