GM Scenario: The 20-21 Patriots

[QuikSand]

So, this seems like a good setup for the sort of people we have here. Most of our NFL intriguing setups are of the "nearly empty cupboard" situation (and I think the Jaguars this offseason would make their own thread for this)... but how about this instead.

The setup...

1. Tom Brady has agreed to sign for a two year contract with the Patriots.

2. You want to get the most out of your final window with this team/QB.

What do you do this offseason with your Patriots?

[QuikSand]

A central part of this is deciding what to do with/about the players on the team now who are impending free agents:

Here are the Patriots who will hit free agency this offseason:

Tom Brady, quarterback
Devin McCourty, safety
Kyle Van Noy, linebacker
Matthew Slater, special teams
Phillip Dorsett, wide receiver
Nate Ebner, special teams
Jamie Collins, linebacker
Danny Shelton, defensive tackle
Nick Folk, kicker
Marshall Newhouse, offensive tackle
Joe Thuney, guard
Ben Watson, tight end
Shilique Calhoun, edge rusher
James Ferentz, guard/center
Ted Karras, center
Elandon Roberts, linebacker
Three players will also enter restricted free agency:

Keionta Davis, defensive end (restricted free agent)
Jermaine Eluemunor, guard (restricted free agent)
Adam Butler, defensive tackle (restricted free agent)

Sourced from Here are the Patriots who will enter free agency this offseason | Boston.com (https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/01/06/patriots-free-agents-2020)

[QuikSand]

McCourty, Van Noy, and Thuney seem to be the most interesting to me. The latter two probably will get healthy offers elsewhere. I have no clue what McCourty's perceived value would be on a new team, but surely one of the BB disciples might see value in that sort of guy for a year or two, right? Maybe the same for Collins.

[molson]

I'm going to rudely blow off your scenario for a moment and say that I'd be intrigued to see this team otherwise mostly intact with Teddy Bridgewater plugged in at QB. But I'm not sure that's possible because the Pats apparently will take a poison pill $13 million cap hit if Brady leaves or retires. So it's kind of Brady or bust.

If he stays, more short-term value decisions I guess. The offense if impotent and Brady will be worse next year. People will say he needs receivers, but I think receivers are a bad value tradeoff because they will be less productive in New England than they were in their last spot, and it's that superior prior value the team would be paying for. So I think they need to keep as much of the defense together as they can and hope they can develop more of a running game. I thought we'd see more of 2001-era Brady this year - screens and running backs catching passes - and it seemed like the Patriots moved the ball well when they did that. But defenses were probably able to adjust and neutralize that since the vertical passing game was non-existent.

Edit: Even though I know this never works, a backup QB who can stretch the field, rest Brady on occasion, and give the defense different looks might be helpful. But that never works. Maybe some other gimmick on offense. The next wildcat.

[bhlloy]

I think the more interesting question is the draft - in this scenario can I still take a Brady replacement at 23 or are you trading to either add an impact vet or down for more pieces so you can take another shot or two at an additional title? And I know you've said I'm doing everything I can to maximize my window with this team/QB and this violates those rules a bit, but I still think it's the most interesting question.

Given how they looked the last half of the season if I'm the GM and I'm focused on the mid to long term future I know what I'm doing but there are a ton of interesting variables at play.

From what I saw of this team in the second half of the year and vs the Titans, you need at least one impact WR (and I don't think another Nkeal Harry is going to cut it) and the line has to be significantly improved to give Brady a chance. I don't have any (or as many) significant concerns about the defense, so if I'm trading or using my pick on something other than QB, can I get something that actually moves the needle on those goals?

[bhlloy]

DOLA - I guess the other interesting variable in the draft discussion (even if I am getting maybe further away from the spirit of the question) is if I have a sneaking suspicion that Brady is going to continue to regress and this team might bottom out a bit, do I wait a year to see if I can't get a QB with a higher pick.

[revrew]

My premises:

1. I want to win one more SuperBowl with Brady, the long-term future be hanged. But I know I need a capable backup QB.

2. By the end of the season, Brady was relying on the ancient Ben Watson at TE and very little significant help at WR. Most of his apparent decline was attributable to this deficiency of talent.

3. With an outstanding defense in place, particularly in the secondary, (I would argue the front 7 was overrated by playing inferior opponents) I would focus my FA resignings on bringing back the O-line and secondary.

4. I would evaluate strongly my front 7, which was exposed by the Titans, and consider if there is an upgrade I could draft in the first round.

5. Because rookie WRs/TEs are so rarely impactful in their first year, I would consider making a splash FA signing in at least one of those two positions, while using a 2nd rounder on even more WR help.

6. Seek a journeyman, veteran, inexpensive backup QB.

[NobodyHere]

This kind of ignores rule 2 but:

Did Brady actually sign yet? At this point I'd him go to free agency, hope some team signs him to a big deal (someone will pay for the name), and get a 3rd round draft pick out of it.

[Castlerock]

Like revrew, I will mortgage everything to win one more SB with TFB. The Patriots can stink for the rest of my life. I'm ok with that.

The scenario didn't specify Brady's cost and I don't really know the Pats cap situation, so I don't know how much money I'm working with here.

1) Get a legitimate #1 WR

2) Resign McCourty, Van Noy, Slater and Thuney.

3) David Andrews health will factor into the O-Line. Is his career over? Or will he be back. He probably can't play football if he is still on blood thinners. If he can't play next year, then they need a Center.

4) Need to upgrade TE. I would value blocking over receiving.

5) I don't care about the backup QB. I'm going to ride or die with Brady. Stidham is cheap.

Re-reading this... I basically said resign all the top free agents. Oh, well.

[NobodyHere]

New England Patriots Salary Cap | Over the Cap (https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots/)

[JPhillips]

AJ Green would be perfect, and he'd probably do a one-year deal to get out of Cincy and prove he can still play.

[SirFozzie]

Here's what New Englanders are being told:

March 18th is the key date for Brady. If he officially becomes a free agent, there's a $13.5 Million dead money cap hit from the two voided years. This goes on the cap EVEN IF HE RESIGNS WITH THE PATRIOTS from that point on. Considering the cap room the Pats have is $42-49 million projected (18th most in the NFL), that puts the Pats in a tight place.

Stidham is still growing, but may not be ready to take over yet.

Proteciton wise, they're going to be better. They get Andrews back and Devlin as well (both from IR), which will be an upgrade.

I expect Van Noy to get a monopoly money offer elsewhere. probably Jaimie Collins as well (although once burned twice shy with other teams?)

The problem with the WR side is, there's not really the type that the Pats need... Unless Dez Bryant spent his year off being surgically made into a cyborg. Unless they could convince someone like Larry Fitzgerald to come over, there's not enough to make a significant upgrade.

To be quite honest, I don't see the Pats and Brady in 2020-21. Despite the cap hit that they're going to take, I think Brady thinks more of himself as a QB right now then Bill Belichick does. Do you ever thought you'd see a situation like the one against the Titans where they punted on a fourth and 4 with <5 minutes left against a team that had gashed them in the running game the entire game?

[stevew]

This kind of ignores rule 2 but:

Did Brady actually sign yet? At this point I'd him go to free agency, hope some team signs him to a big deal (someone will pay for the name), and get a 3rd round draft pick out of it.

Most you would get is a 5th. Some obscure rule the Steelers didn’t know about when they let Alan Faneca walk. I believe it’s a 2 round downgrade for a player with more than 10 years.

[NobodyHere]

You learn something new everyday.

[JPhillips]

I don't think Brady would get the kind of contract that nets a third anyway.

[QuikSand]

AJ Green would be perfect, and he'd probably do a one-year deal to get out of Cincy and prove he can still play.

This is the sort of move I think makes a ton of sense, if you want to make Brady work. If he's got anything in the tank, he'd be an ideal addition, and might be properly motivated.

I'm guessing that Amari Cooper will be the top WR on the open market, not sure he's special enough to merit a big move, but that might be in play for them, too - which would presumably come at the cost of not being able to really do much at TE or OL.

[stevew]

Teams get both the transition tag and the franchise tag this offseason. I suspect a lot of guys will get tagged.

[spleen1015]

Brady says he wants to return so Kraft makes it happen. Bill is unhappy about it. He gives Kraft so much shit that Kraft trades him to Cleveland for Landry, OBJ & Chubb.

NE goes 4-12 next year. Brady throws for 2200 yards and 12 TDs.

Cleveland wins the Super Bowl.

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to rudely blow off your scenario for a moment and say that I'd be intrigued to see this team otherwise mostly intact with Teddy Bridgewater plugged in at QB. But I'm not sure that's possible because the Pats apparently will take a poison pill $13 million cap hit if Brady leaves or retires. So it's kind of Brady or bust.

If he stays, more short-term value decisions I guess. The offense if impotent and Brady will be worse next year. People will say he needs receivers, but I think receivers are a bad value tradeoff because they will be less productive in New England than they were in their last spot, and it's that superior prior value the team would be paying for. So I think they need to keep as much of the defense together as they can and hope they can develop more of a running game. I thought we'd see more of 2001-era Brady this year - screens and running backs catching passes - and it seemed like the Patriots moved the ball well when they did that. But defenses were probably able to adjust and neutralize that since the vertical passing game was non-existent.

Edit: Even though I know this never works, a backup QB who can stretch the field, rest Brady on occasion, and give the defense different looks might be helpful. But that never works. Maybe some other gimmick on offense. The next wildcat.

I must have missed the poison pill part. How would that work if he is an unrestrcited free agent? How can someone be an unrestricted free agent (no contract) and yet the team be subject to a cap hit if he leaves? What did I miss?

[henry296]

I must have missed the poison pill part. How would that work if he is an unrestrcited free agent? How can someone be an unrestricted free agent (no contract) and yet the team be subject to a cap hit if he leaves? What did I miss?

The contract actually has 2 years left on it for salary cap purposes but voids after this season causing the dead money from the bonus that was spread out over 3 years. Not sure exactly what causes it to void.

[SirFozzie]

Its an automatic void.. basically it was an accounting trick to spread signing bonuses over extra years.

Its how Brady kept restructuring his contract every year.. they'd convert some salary into a signing bonus and then spread it out over the new term. Now the chickens have come home to roost

[spleen1015]

Thanks for clearing it up. It was confusing because the first time I saw it mentioned, it was presented like the money only came into play if he left the Patriots. That's not true. The money is in play regardless.

[SirFozzie]

basically, it's a bit of Leverage for brady. "If you resign me, that cap hit gets spread out over however long we go. But if you don't make me a killer offer, I'll see what others can offer, and you'll have $13.5 million on the cap for me NOT to play for you"