2019 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

We'll get this going early this year... no superhorse emerging from the contenders as we are amidst the 3yo "prep race season."

Nice summary here: 2019 Derby Watch | Daily Racing Form (https://www.drf.com/derby-watch)

Video links to prep races, conveniently in one place: http://www.andheretheycome.com/kentucky-derby-prep-race-results.html

[weegeebored]

Some more information here: TFUS figures (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=149731)

CJ is arguably the best figure maker in the country. He had his own subscriber site several years ago, and then he was hired by TimeFormUS (now owned by DRF) to make the numbers for them. Great handicapper in his own right as well. I am not affiliated in any way with DRF or TimeForm.

[QuikSand]

I really liked the looks of that run by LONG RANGE TODDY. Showed some maneuverability, handled a strange pace setup, positioned nicely, and drove home strong. Nice.

[QuikSand]

Field basically set... betting should be a mess, with no particularly clear favorite.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Free_2019_Kentucky_Derby_past_performances_now_available_123

I have a future ticket on VEKOMA, but am not in love at all.

[larrymcg421]

I saw three of the horses at the Louisiana Derby a few weeks ago. My friend had a nice payout with upset victor By My Standards, who won in an exciting finish against Spinoff. War of Will was a huge pre-race favorite, but faded badly down the stretch in an awful performance.

[QuikSand]

Here's what I mean about wide open...

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/2018-19-DFW-Odds-Pool-4.pdf

It's been 20 years, I think, since we had a pre-race favorite as high as 5-1... haven't looked it up but I was there in 99 and I think Stephen Got Even was 9-2... maybe Lawyer Ron was close to there (4-1 or so) in 2007?

Anyway, based on the last round of advance wagering, the betting had put ROADSTER a tepid 6-1 favorite off his SA Derby win. Is he going off as the favorite this year? Who can say, the argument for five or six to be the favorite is there, and that basically doesn't happen.

[weegeebored]

This year could fit into my KD betting strategy as I always like to beat the favorite. That strategy has cost me EXs and TRIs 3 out of the last 6 years (had the fave underneath but not on top). This year we will have a tepid favorite, perhaps even tepid co-favorites. At this point in their careers I am not seeing any world beaters. Looking forward to QuikSand's analysis.

[QuikSand]

Kentucky Derby 2019 and Oaks: Post position draw odds, the favorite (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/kentucky-derby/2019/04/23/kentucky-derby-2019-and-oaks-what-odds-before-post-position-draw/3538821002/)

We're still a week out from next week's post position draw (and the morning-line odds to go with it), but there are bets being taken on the Derby already on sites like Bovada, which as of Monday had a pair of Bob Baffert-trained horses still favored ahead of Omaha Beach:

Game Winner 5-1
Roadster 5-1
Omaha Beach 6-1
Improbable 7-1
Tacitus 10-1
Maximum Security 11-1
Vekoma 12-1
Code Of Honor 14-1
Cutting Humor 20-1
Tax 20-1
War Of Will 20-1
Win Win Win 20-1
By My Standards 25-1
Haikal 25-1
Long Range Toddy 25-1
Plus Que Parfait 25-1
Spinoff 25-1
Country House 33-1
Master Fencer 66-1

I'm trying to mentally work with those numbers for now. This is going to be a great betting race, if we can find somebody to actually back. TACITUS as 10-1 seems like an overlay, among the shorter prices. Maybe Mott outside of his usual lane (NY, turf) is actually an angle, rather than a reverse angle?

[QuikSand]

2019 Kentucky Derby field: Get to know all 20 horses, contenders (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/kentucky-derby/2019/04/22/2019-kentucky-derby-horses-in-the-field-contenders/3539011002/)

[QuikSand]

Great write-ups on recent workouts...

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/DeadHeat/Grading_out_2019_Kentucky_Derby_contenders_recent_works_123#

[QuikSand]

Might be time to nickname him 2019BELMONTWINNERTACITUS

[cartman]

It might just be recency bias, but this seems to be the most wide-open betting field I've seen in a long time. Usually there has been a movement toward a favorite or two by this point. I wouldn't call a 5-1 shot a solid favorite.

[QuikSand]

Okay, maybe its the bourbon talking, but I think the conversation around this year's Derby revolves around OMAHA BEACH. He's a front-running type, a credentialed winner, and has enough pedigree to not be a throwout.

So... who either tires him out with early pressure, or has the quality to run him down late? (I will accept nobody as the two-part answer, and at something approximating 6-1, I might well do so)

[QuikSand]

An angle guy lays out his angles:

DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

These are the nine key factors (or categories) in my Derby Strikes System:

THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Justify in 2018 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 53 of the last 56 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006, Big Brown in 2008, Animal Kingdom in 2011, I’ll Have Another in 2012, American Pharoah in 2015, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Justify in 2018. Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro, I’ll Have Another, American Pharoah and Always Dreaming each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom had made four starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown and Justify had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018 are the only Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t race as a 2-year-old. Through 2018, the score is 142-2 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to win, place or show were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; Battle of Midway, third in 2017; and Justify, first in 2018.)
THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

Source: It's Post Time by Jon White: First Derby Strikes for 2019 - XBTV (https://www.xbtv.com/its-post-time-by-jon-white-first-derby-strikes-for-2019/)

My thoughts: A lot of this held water until about 2014... since then, it seems like no rule is safe. Exercise caution. He himself ignore his own rules to pick Justify last year. So why not back the zero-strike CUTTING HUMOR this year? (Maybe because he's not sure thing for the distance, which is not well included in the strikes system)

[QuikSand]

And seriously... other than "wins" what do you want from this guy?

Pasteboard - Uploaded Image (https://pasteboard.co/IbFRcVi.png)

It's right there. If he wins, we'll look back and say "oh the quality was there the whole time."

5-1? Are you joking?

(yes, is is indeed the bourbon talking)

[TCY Junkie]

I'm taking improbable and game winner. Heard CD is making the track heavier than most years cause of all the breakdowns, might not want a front runner this year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Derby favorite Omaha Beach scratched from race (http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26650273/derby-favorite-omaha-beach-scratched-race)

[QuikSand]

On my "to do list" for today (slipping to tomorrow, it seems) is to figure out the pace scenario for the remaining field. I felt OB had a real shot to get the lead, and I am fully certain that Mike Smith would have set out to do just that. Now... not sure who really guns for it. VEKOMA, TAX, and SIGNALMAN all seem like possible candidates. I will take seriously any horse who guns to the front, as I don't see enough pace to wear anyone out. If you can make the lead and have just barely enough breeding to get the distance, that coudl be enough this year. Any of those three could be a tasty hit.

[murrayyyyy]

I guess I've settled on a tribox involving 4 which no one really like. I think the track will be in fair condition with the days of rain before hand.

going with Max, Roadster, Tac and BMS as my 4 in an open race. Think two from 8 and in finish in the top 3, it's just finding which ones.

[QuikSand]

Super early money has VEKONA a surprising favorite... seems bogus but worth noting. Early pace play, I guess.

[QuikSand]

...and ROADSTER at 30. Could be some unexpected value there.

[TCY Junkie]

Super early money has VEKONA a surprising favorite... seems bogus but worth noting. Early pace play, I guess.

Is it online?

[QuikSand]

I have the TwinSpires betting app, and it has early betting on things like the Oaks/Derby Double up. When it shows the Derby field it has updated win odds for the Derby field. Real money will come in tomorrow and be far more credible.

[TCY Junkie]

I have the TwinSpires betting app, and it has early betting on things like the Oaks/Derby Double up. When it shows the Derby field it has updated win odds for the Derby field. Real money will come in tomorrow and be far more credible.

Being in TX they took viewing live racing on twinspires away end of last year, before that I could watch it while not being able to bet for years. Loved looking at double will pays and such....I can still look at replays, but couldn't see how to look at current odds. Good luck.

[QuikSand]

(pasted from a missive sent to friends)

Spent some real time last night on this (thanks, insomnia!) and waffled a lot on the #1 horse, WAR OF WILL. I am going to be using him in some tickets, and I expect him to fetch a pretty good price.

The case:

-highly regarded on prep trail… he as the favorite in each of his last 4 races (3 of them wins) after a good run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year.

-broke his maiden over an off track (at Churchill too), and breeding supports that – he might welcome the rain, and it looks like it may well be coming

-connections have intimated they are going to let him go (in the #1 spot, you sort of have to commit to being toward the front or getting swallowed up… I don’t think he can win by running through traffic, so GO) and I remain fairly convinced that toward the front is the place to be in this race… I expect him to fight to keep the rail and stay at least in the top six through ¾ mile

-superior “bullet” workout over the CD track this week

The case against:

-last time out, very poor showing and ran well behind a fairly undistinguished field… that is what has tumbled him from top tier contender to afterthought

-speed figures show him doing okay, but nothing too gaudy – no 100+ figs by the BRIS numbers, while several in this field have done that at least once (some a few times already) – so he’d have to really improve

-when he has lost, it has been by getting caught from behind… while those races are mainly on turf, it’s still worrisome to see him fading late at shorter distances than the 10f Derby

If the betting public were inclined to give him a pass for a bad start in the LaDerby and look at his overall record (the stuff above) I think he would belong somewhere around 12-1 here. I think he’s going to go off at a LOT higher odds than that – he’s at 25-1 right now in Friday early wagering, and I expect that’s roughly where he lands.

I think he has a solid chance to get the lead or at least hold the rail without any really serious early speed in this field, and then after that – who knows? He might like the wet going, he might not get too tired out, and he might be able to finish as strongly as he did January. Admittedly, he’d need to patch together the best parts of his two wins this year to get it done Saturday, but if we’re tossing out the LaDerby effort as a bad start, then he’s got a decent stretch of time to show the advance.

He is going to be among my legendary “value” plays for this race. Probably not my central pick to win, but I will have some tickets using him at or near the top.

[QuikSand]

Hearing insiders say that ROADSTER looks like he has lost a lot of weight, and doesn't look right in person. The in-town buzz is not good, and the super-early wagering is reflecting that. He's going to go off a good deal higher than 6-1, maybe 12 or 15.

[QuikSand]

One early ticket I'm putting down now:

1 3 16 (WAR OF WILL, BY MY STANDARDS, GAME WINNER)
1 2 3 5 13 16
1 2 3 5 8 13 15 16 18

As a $.50 TRI, that's a $52.50 ticket.

Taking a stand against
6 VEKOMA
7 MAXIMUM SECURITY
17 ROADSTER

[QuikSand]

FYI, I’m seeing updated odds in the TwinSpires app, and they have it:

9-2 #5 IMPROBABLE
5-1 #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY
6-1 #16 GAME WINNER
7-1 #17 ROADSTER
…
Then a cluster at 14 or 15 including 1 WAR OF WILL, 3 BY MY STANDARDS, 13 CODE OF HONOR, and 14 WIN WIN WIN

Live odds should show up on the website soon, I'd expect.
Live Odds and Entries for the 2019 Kentucky Derby | 2019 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 3rd and 4th, 2019 (https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds)

[cartman]

I think the money is starting to move towards IMPROBABLE

[Arles]

I'm beginning to really like Tacitus, I think he will be the one I lean. I also think two of Baffert's horses will be in there. The threat of weather with some fears I have about Roadster (like Quik) have him as the odd man out. So, I'm going an exacta box of: 5 (Improbable ) - 8 (Tacitus) - 16 (Game Winner)

For long shots, I'm leaning the 13 Code of Honor (12-1) and 3 By My Standards (14-1). The 3 has looked good in training and I like his spot (right next to Improbable). For the 13, it's just a bet on his trainer (Shug McGaughey) and the longer odds. A really long shot would be 18 long range toddy (44-1) - but only if it's a decent track.

I'm struggling with a trifecta as I like 3-5-8-13-16 for the Win and Show spots, but my fear is someone like War of Will or Win Win Win sneaking into 2nd. If I were to make one prediction, it is that I think one of 5/8/16 wins, there's a surprise 2nd and the 3rd is one of 3/5/8/13/16. With that in mind, I may try some more long shot exactas and stay away from putting a bunch of money on a boxed tri.

[TCY Junkie]

Have 7,13,14 with 1 5 14 16 double. Casse said he never had a horse that trained as consistently. Seen his replays and look like got speed to avoid getting trapped.

[cartman]

Got my bets in. Put combos and exacta boxes down on:

IMPROBABLE
MAXIMUM SECURITY
TACITUS
GAME WINNER

Very, very chalk.

[JPhillips]

Wow. I didn't think they'd have the guts to disqualify.

[cartman]

Well, that ended up being a big 0-fer for me.

[Butter]

I'm going to go ahead and figure everyone on social media that is super pissed about this had money on the 7.

[GrantDawg]

I'm going to go ahead and figure everyone on social media that is super pissed about this had money on the 7.




No. My wife didn't, but is super-pissed.

[PilotMan]

Fuck Matt Bevin

[PilotMan]

That was 100% the correct call

[PilotMan]

I love Kentucky when they boo the winner because of this.

[digamma]

It's a weird result though. I'm trying to think of a comparison. Curry fouls Harden and Dame gets free throws as a result?

[Shkspr]

The anarchist in me now wants Maximum Security to race and win both Preakness and Belmont, just to watch the world burn.

[NobodyHere]

Fuck Matt Bevin

I noticed he got the Roger Goodell treatment when announcing the winner. Do the people hate him or were they just booing the decision?

[larrymcg421]

It's a weird result though. I'm trying to think of a comparison. Curry fouls Harden and Dame gets free throws as a result?

It is kinda weird, but there's no other way to do it in a race. I remember a 110m hurdles World Championship race where Liu Xiang was impeded by Dayron Robles. This put Xiang down to third. Robles was disqualified and this bumped the American runner from 2nd to 1st and Xiang from 3rd to 2nd.

[TCY Junkie]

That was 100% the correct call

I was laughing first 10 minutes. NBC acting like 7 was staying up. They murdered the 1. Chopped him up in barrel. Dumped in ocean. They weren't ever going to find the 1 in top 3 after that luck. 20 pinch him too but that was just racing goes.

[PilotMan]

I noticed he got the Roger Goodell treatment when announcing the winner. Do the people hate him or were they just booing the decision?


I think it was a mix of both, but he has the lowest approval rating of any governor in the US right now. So, a lot of the former. But I also think it's booing by the people who had been holding winning tickets just a few minutes earlier. That's something I would expect would happen here too. The other part of this is that this is in Louisville, which is one of the only bastions of liberals (along with Lexington) in the entire state. Bevin has pulled so much shit against people in that town, he is lucky they even let him come in the city.


https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/59765187_1024472014415877_9116767512594219008_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=954107604bf9da3cb40a3cac7247911f&oe=5D2C731A

[PilotMan]

I was laughing first 10 minutes. NBC acting like 7 was staying up. They murdered the 1. Chopped him up in barrel. Dumped in ocean. They weren't ever going to find the 1 in top 3 after that luck. 20 pinch him too but that was just racing goes.


I saw it in real time, and I was like "damn, that's a big push and a lot of contact."


Looked like the horses kicked each other, and at least 4 horses were contacted. The 20 was the least impacted directly, but he was pushed a good lane wider than normal and off his stride too. The 2 horses in the middle were screwed, and the last horse on the rail got bumped when he came flying back to the inside. The commentators were driving me nuts. Like, rules are shit, and we just give it to the 'best horse, cause he won' and let it go. I actually felt physically ill for that whole team, but even they knew how it was going to go. You could read it on their faces.

[molson]

Like, rules are shit, and we just give it to the 'best horse, cause he won' and let it go.

I couldn't tell you the difference between an OK horse bump and a horse bump that warrants a DQ, but I was amused by, "well, he's the best horse, so he should be the winner." I was pretty sure that wasn't the standard.

[Logan]

Not even a racing fan/much of a follower but I saw it happen live and knew it was a problem.

[stevew]

That's some Zola Budd level interference

[QuikSand]

The anarchist in me now wants Maximum Security to race and win both Preakness and Belmont, just to watch the world burn.

Yeah, that sentiment surfaced in my group yesterday. I suspect he might not even ship to Baltimore, but I suspect he'd be the favorite if he did.

FWIW, totally agreed on taking him down, and not only because I was invested in the #1 who got completely compromised by the wide drift. I honestly didn't really see how bad it was during the race - my eyes went to the #13 making a really big move along the rail, and it wasn't evident in real time how the gap opened up so much for him from the #7's movement.

On another line... did anyone else try to pay attention to the #16 GAME WINNER? Holy cow what an awful trip, he got pinched early, swept wayyyyyyy outside to try to gain ground, and ended up back up into the pack somewhere around 7th or 8th, I suspect. Nobody is going to give him credit for running 8th, but holy cow that was a serious effort.

Have to think TACITUS takes his fully expected 5 week break and comes back for the Belmont, where I will love him. The rest? Who knows, but the Preakness could have more than the usual intrigue. Against a median-quality field that includes MAX SEC, where would we put the odds on COUNTRY HOUSE? Maybe something like a 4-1 second choice? Maybe higher? He definitely has a chance to be that fairly rare Derby winner who runs in the Preakness but isn't the favorite. (Mine that Bird was the last, I think)

[QuikSand]

...oh, and for the record, I didn't cash a ticket all day. I had a few near misses on the undercard, but was all-exotics and had a consistent knack of using the "surprise second finisher" in only my third or fourth slots, and that sort of thing. Racing guys are prone to talking a big game after a big race or big day, we tend to not be so hot on revealing our massive thuds. My day was a massive thud.

[JPhillips]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Kentuky Derby decision was not a good one. It was a rough and tumble race on a wet and sloppy track, actually, a beautiful thing to watch. Only in these days of political correctness could such an overturn occur. The best horse did NOT win the Kentucky Derby - not even close!</p>&mdash; Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1125026404482146305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 5, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


You can bet that if it was a black horse...

[Lathum]

He spelled Kentucky wrong. Jeez.

[Chief Rum]

I think it was a mix of both, but he has the lowest approval rating of any governor in the US right now. So, a lot of the former. But I also think it's booing by the people who had been holding winning tickets just a few minutes earlier. That's something I would expect would happen here too. The other part of this is that this is in Louisville, which is one of the only bastions of liberals (along with Lexington) in the entire state. Bevin has pulled so much shit against people in that town, he is lucky they even let him come in the city.


https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/59765187_1024472014415877_9116767512594219008_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=954107604bf9da3cb40a3cac7247911f&oe=5D2C731A

On my phone's smaller screen, the picture on this Tweet looked like someone had gone in and put blotches over everuone's face but Bevin's.

When I looked closer, it was actually all of the silly hats and getups blocking faces.

[Chief Rum]

He spelled Kentucky wrong. Jeez.

To be fair, he spelled it correctly lower down in the tweet. I'm willing to give him the typo nod on that one.

[PilotMan]

To be fair, he spelled it correctly lower down in the tweet. I'm willing to give him the typo nod on that one.


It's really too much to expect the President of the United States of America to proof read a tweet before he hits post, isn't it?



Because, I mean, what are we going to expect from our kids or future leaders if this is the standard that we are comfortable with? It's never really ok, unless you're going to go all Barkley and say "I am not a role model."

[digamma]

Pat Forde had a nice dig based on the tweet in an article today, "No Collision, but Obstruction in Kentucky Derby."

[Chief Rum]

It's really too much to expect the President of the United States of America to proof read a tweet before he hits post, isn't it?



Because, I mean, what are we going to expect from our kids or future leaders if this is the standard that we are comfortable with? It's never really ok, unless you're going to go all Barkley and say "I am not a role model."

Oh yea it's definitely an unforgivable error on his part, just not one of poor spelling (stupdiity, ignorance) as Lathum was hinting at, but more about carelessness, as you have pointed out.

Putting aside whether or not a President should be proofreading his tweets for posterity's sake (at least), I'm still stubbornly anti the concept that the man is tweeting at all. Or at least in the manner he is, as opposed to the more PR-sensitive and sensible (and less prolific) manner employed by Obama during his terms.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Typo aside, that tweet was probably crazy like a fox.

The sentiment in it was exactly in line with every single FB post I saw in my feed yesterday (give or take a dozen posts, plus several dozen comments that went with those).

That was Grade A playing to the base stuff.

[cartman]

Trump once almost killed a racehorse named D.J. Trump (https://theweek.com/speedreads/700230/trump-once-almost-killed-racehorse-named-dj-trump)

[digamma]

DRF is reporting Country House is sick and out of the Preakness.

[Lathum]

DRF is reporting Country House is sick and out of the Preakness.

What a disaster of a year it has been for the sport

[digamma]

And now Maximum Security's jockey has been suspended for 15 days for his ride during the Derby. For those who follow the sport more closely, is this standard? From my layman's view, it seemed like the horse jerked/swerved and he had to right the ship? What's the right answer here?

[QuikSand]

Penalties on the rider are less consistent than on the horse for purposes of the instant race. The horse clearly was hard to control, but there is an argument that it is the rider's responsibility to do it regardless.

This is less clear, overall. The horse definitely should have been taken down for the race, IMO. Whether the jock should be suspended, honestly it didn't even occur to me that might be in play.

[QuikSand]

...when evaluating these matters (jockey accountability), the fact that MS swerved into a horse that was actively advancing on him (WoW) is considered an aggravating factor. The swerve right at the moment the other horse was at least trying to pass him is material.

[QuikSand]

Well, whatever value BOURBON WAR posed in this field has been sucked up by a betting public that either drunkenly is in for the horse with the booze name, or perhaps wisely seeing that the pace setup favors an off-the-pace type. I was planning to use him, still am, but my main value horse here is 8 SIGNALMAN, whom I believe is solid, rested, sharp, and ready to pay off. Get him in the top tier with any of the logicals and I'm all set.

[QuikSand]

Well, after I had made pretty much all my bets, I went through a common exercise (for me) in building one last "saving" ticket - basically if some of my theory of the race was right, but some specifics were off. Ended up putting in a $1 exacta with 1-2-8 over 8 horses, leaving out the 4 completely, for a $21 ticket. I mostly wanted to sneak in a ticket with WIN WIN WIN and the rest of the "well maybe" ones I hadn't been using. Turned out my afterthought of rolling in EVERFAST and ANOTHERTWISTAFATE was the big non-decision of the day for me. The $1 exacta paid nearly $500... go figure.

Liked WAR OF WILL a lot for the Derby, didn't really use him a ton today, but ended up ahead entirely on that one afterthought wager. So it goes, can't take much credit, but I'm still cashing the ticket up a couple Cs for the day. *shurg*

[TCY Junkie]

After the luck 1 had in derby I wasn't going to bet the Preakness, didn't trust him not to beat me. Well I did make one bet for today yesterday after looking at replays of the graded entries. Did 20 to win on 3 and 10 dollar double 3 with 1. Lost by a dang neck. Was 12 to ml , I thought he should have been around 5/2. Went off 5 to 1.

[TCY Junkie]

Nice hit. When they were Loading I was thinking about how Romans has done pretty good Preakness weekend.

[QuikSand]

Belmont field is varied and interesting, more so than usual. WAR OF WILL comes off a Preakness win but is only second choice to TACITUS, who apparently is just shelving all the presumed support for his Tapit bloodline and trainer connection.

I liked Tacitus a bit for the Derby, predicted this path for him (solid Derby run, 5 week layoff, serious Belmont player) and now might not be able to get any value for him. Other than the cred for calling it weeks in advance, both here but also on a podcast. So I'd have that going for me, which is nice.

[QuikSand]

As always, the Belmont Stakes, despite its length, is subject to being "stolen" on the front end by a seemingly overmatched horse who just gets a too-early lead. JOEVIA at 30-1 does not fit the profile of a serious stayer, but he certainly has the capacity to get the lead here. Pace is not likely to be very contested... I think I'd send SPINOFF toward the front if I were his connections, but past that I think it would be a stretch for most of the field to really push early. (Maybe TAX? Maybe WAR OF WILL?)

JOEVIA with SPINOFF a length back and then two more back to a big bunch seems the natural setup here, not bad for the front two. I will likely use SPINOFF in some bets.

[QuikSand]

If you like WAR OF WILL you might get a surprisingly good price, maybe 7-2 or better, if early betting is an indication. His probable payouts in the two day daily double ate around twice those for TACITUS.

[Arles]

I may gamble a bit on Tax (15/1),Everfast (12/1) or Sir Winston (12/1) to figure in the top 2. Seems like a good race to box Tacitus with 3-4 long shots in an Exacta Box.

[TCY Junkie]

I may gamble a bit on Tax (15/1),Everfast (12/1) or Sir Winston (12/1) to figure in the top 2. Seems like a good race to box Tacitus with 3-4 long shots in an Exacta Box.

Good call

[QuikSand]

Hope you hit it

I used 7 underneath but not on top

[Lathum]

Santa Anita won't close despite 2 deaths in 2 days (https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26937230/santa-anita-close-2-deaths-2-days)

This is such a bad look for the track and anyone who continues to go there is complicit in whatever is causing this.

[PilotMan]

Well here's some pretty big horse racing news to break today:


More than 2 dozen horse racing professionals charged in drug scheme (https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/28870928/over-2-dozen-horse-racing-professionals-charged-drug-scam)


More than two dozen people, including the trainer of champion Maximum Security, have been charged in what authorities described Monday as a widespread international scheme to drug horses to make them race faster.
Trainer Jason Servis, whose stable includes the 3-year-old champion, was charged with administering performance-enhancing drugs to that horse and others. Maximum Security crossed the finish line first at the 2019 Kentucky Derby before being disqualified for interference (https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26686791/maximum-security-disqualification-appeal-denied) and has since won four of his five high-profile races.

[Thomkal]

So don't know much about the horse racing industy, but this looks like a pretty big dagger to the chest from the outside. How likely is the industry to suffer from this? To the point of ending it?

[QuikSand]

The specter of banned substances has been around for a long time, in and out of the sport, with various trainers and operations suffering bans and penalties - sometimes heavy ones. Too soon to say whether this is "the big one" but bigger name trainers have gotten caught up in similar stuff, without jeopardizing the sport. So... not easy to say this is "it."

With piles of dead horses at Santa Anita, a messy DQ in the highest profile American race of the last year, and now this... an already dying industry might be feeling like it's just all conspiring against them.

[Thomkal]

Thanks Quik