digamma
01-05-2016, 05:57 AM
Bovada has some lines up that seem a bit too good to be true.
Simply put, right now, the site is allowing you to parlay a super bowl futures bet with a general line a -2.5 NFC TO WIN. For a bet on the Cardinals and the Patriots (the current betting favorites), that takes their current +450 line to +850 (or 9.5 to 1). (Obviously for the Pats the parlay is to AFC +2.5.)
Depending on how you might size your bets, you can come very close to locking in a win at this point, or at the very least getting really attractive odds on what amounts to an "NFC Won't Win by 1 or 2 Points Bet." For historical reference, I believe only one of the previous 49 Super Bowls has had a spread of less than a field goal. And, again, depending on bet sizing you would likely have a chance to hedge once the teams are set to remove any risk from the table.
Hypothetically, I looked at bets on all 12 teams, with various sizes, and the result is ending up with something like a -250 line on not getting middled by the Panthers or Cardinals. (My worst implied odds on these hypothetical bets actually end up being the Packers and Redskins due to betting relatively little on those teams.)
Who knows how long they'll keep this up or if they view it as a glitch or what? Passing along in case others might be interested as well.
Simply put, right now, the site is allowing you to parlay a super bowl futures bet with a general line a -2.5 NFC TO WIN. For a bet on the Cardinals and the Patriots (the current betting favorites), that takes their current +450 line to +850 (or 9.5 to 1). (Obviously for the Pats the parlay is to AFC +2.5.)
Depending on how you might size your bets, you can come very close to locking in a win at this point, or at the very least getting really attractive odds on what amounts to an "NFC Won't Win by 1 or 2 Points Bet." For historical reference, I believe only one of the previous 49 Super Bowls has had a spread of less than a field goal. And, again, depending on bet sizing you would likely have a chance to hedge once the teams are set to remove any risk from the table.
Hypothetically, I looked at bets on all 12 teams, with various sizes, and the result is ending up with something like a -250 line on not getting middled by the Panthers or Cardinals. (My worst implied odds on these hypothetical bets actually end up being the Packers and Redskins due to betting relatively little on those teams.)
Who knows how long they'll keep this up or if they view it as a glitch or what? Passing along in case others might be interested as well.