2015 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

The season's prep races are pretty much behind us... and it looks like it might be as strong/compelling a field as we have seen in years.

I don't have strong feelings yet, but we're going to have several contenders who come out of their various paths looking far the best from their region. AMERICAN PHAROAH just crushed the Arkansas Derby field as a monster 1-9 favorite, with a performance that might have made him a heavy favorite in Kentucky. But DORTMUND comes from the So Cal circuit off his own great looking run in the Santa Anita Derby, also seeming much the best from that region. CARPE DIEM won at the Bluegrass Stakes in Keeneland at somewhere around even money, also a strong betting choice from that major prep after he previously won in Tampa Bay. A few from the Wood Memorial looks legit, with FROSTED the winner whose body of work includes one dud but several really nice races. And as always, we'll have multiple intriguing players who either make a case based on apparent improvement, bloodlines, trainer, or who knows what else.

It sets up very nicely for a good debate and conversation.

[QuikSand]

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[QuikSand]

Hmm... maybe this is what it takes to get any chatter going.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf

[QuikSand]

Interesting that the BRIS speed figures (linked above) favor DORTMUND and FROSTED over AMERICAN PHARAOH, which is basically my own leaning as well (prior to seeing the BRIS figs for the last round of races). I think the DRF numbers are virtually the same for all three races.

That might not bode so well for getting juicy odds on FROSTED, though.

[Lathum]

Going to Keeneland tomorrow, really looking forward to it.

[weegeebored]

I used to be a serious recreational player but have lost interest in horse racing over the last couple of years. I think that I played the Derby and Breeder's Cup last year and that was it. Thanks for posting the prep races QS. I am going to take some time and review them this coming weekend and maybe I will be able to contribute to the discussion. The KD is the only time that I play trifectas, and I'm usually looking for a nice score. I have hit it a couple of times over the last 12 or so years so I will post my plays closer to Derby day.

[QuikSand]

I am always looking for a value play, and I think mine this year is going to be UPSTART. Really not a big number play, but I think the DRF guess of 12-1 had a better chance of holding up than their 15-1 on FROSTED (who at that price is a massive overlay).

LCJ Report from a recent workout here:
Kentucky Derby 2015 | Upstart recovers, gets in workout (http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2015/04/17/kentucky-derby-2015--upstart-recovers-gets-in-workout/25932889/)

I'm not hung up on the loss to MATERIALITY - who got to cruise to awfully comfy fractions (over 48 seconds for the first half mile, pretty pedestrian) in Florida on a lead-favoring surface and held him off.

We'll probably get him onto the CD track next week, and if he's looking fit (and I mean a bullet blowout, which we know he's capable of doing and Violette will ask for it) then he will figure prominently for me.

If he's up the track in the Derby, then start printing my Belmont win tickets right away. He's got all the markings of a June winner, to me... fits right into the recent semi-trend of seeing well-bred Derby failures put it together 5 weeks later.

[TCY Junkie]

I bet materiality in Florida derby but will have upstart in KD. Also like firing line, think he will have value. And the way frosted was moving before he decided to basically stop caught my attention. Had him I'm the wood. I'll have those 3 in the KD. If keen ice for romans gets in might play place and show on him. But main bets will be with the 3 above.

The oaks looks very lively this year. Will be on birdatthewire. Very good fillies this year.

[QuikSand]

MATERIALITY ran a nice 48-flat work today over the CD track. That's right in line with what he was able to manage prepping for some impressive front-running efforts down at Gulfstream (where it looks like he trained on a private site). Getting over the CD surface is pretty important for a horse with that style, so this is a good sign for him. Often, newcomers to CD simply don't like it -- and an inability to generate a comparable workout to previous settings is a tipoff.

Not sure where I rank him in either my pace scenario, nor overall. He's been pretty forwardly placed in his 3 races (all wins) but none of them really showed blistering speed. But if I'm in command, I don't see how he has the class to emerge from a pack if he starts out in 7th place - which I reckon he would if he run his first half in 47 and change, which seems like his normal pace.

I'm looking for short-odds horses to toss out, and so far he is a candidate. I'm trying to firm up my view that CARPE DIEM can be completely ignored as well. That would certainly help in making exotic tickets more reasonable.

My preliminary thinking is along these lines:

Top Tier
DORTMUND
FROSTED
AMERICAN PHARAOH
UPSTART

Second Tier
EL KABEIR
INTERNATIONAL STAR
CARPE DIEM?

Value Plays
FIRING LINE
TENCENDUR
MUBTAAHIJ (completely depends on early money)

[weegeebored]

Watching the preps didn't help too much, although I thought that Frosted looked short in the Fountain of Youth but had a bad trip in the Wood -- wide on both turns and won anyway despite the mediocre pace. A contender for me. American Pharaoh had a jewel trip and won for fun; hard to judge that race. Upstart ran a nice race and was taken down -- I've seen worse and horses not DQ'd so I'll count that as a win. It's a big concern for me that Upstart bore out several paths however. Possibly an underneath play for me. The UAE Derby -- hard to get anything out of that as well. Mubtaahij saved ground the whole way. Destroyed the field, though, so I'm considering. Carpe Diem looked solid; pressing Ocho x 3 and drawing away. Ocho did well to hold on to 3rd, but there wasn't much behind him. Dortmund didn't have much pressure and isn't going to wire the field in the Derby.

Workouts @CD and pedigree (distance) really help me separate contenders into different tiers, so I will wait until I read the reports and look at some dosage numbers.

[QuikSand]

PHARAOH just blew the doors off the place with his Sunday morning workout in 58 and 2/5. Damn.

[Marmel]

On another message board I frequest, a member ('s husband) partially owns War Horse, so I'll go with him.

[QuikSand]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts

Nice showings here from EL KABEIR, who remains in my thinking as well... but they're working him at Belmont, so he won't have any recent test over the CD surface. He did win a Grade 2 race over the track last year, though, so I don't think we hold that against him much - he'll handle the surface fine, presumably.

Word is that TENCENDUR was visually impressive and unaltered by a pretty decent 5-panel work as well, that's a good sign for him to go 5 furlongs in a very respectable time and not be all out to do so. He's going to figure in my betting.

[QuikSand]

Oaks PP data here: http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=11&param1=3740&param2=68&param3=1485055

The Oaks/Derby is an interesting play, as sometimes the payouts get dictated by the morning line a bit more than one would expect. If, like me, you're intrigued by a few of these mid-range shots like FROSTED and UPSTART, and you'd like to lock in decent odds before seeing them actually click in at 7-1 on Saturday afternoon... a reasonable play on an Oaks/Derby exacta could be a solid bet.

[QuikSand]

Not everyone likes Jennie Rees (I do) but I definitely go for this sort of article.

Kentucky Derby 2015 | Why your horse can win -- and why it won't (http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2015/04/25/kentucky-derby-derby-pick-can-win/26383623/)

[QuikSand]

Top Tier
FROSTED
AMERICAN PHARAOH
UPSTART

Second Tier
DORTMUND
TENCENDUR
INTERNATIONAL STAR
CARPE DIEM


Value Plays
FIRING LINE
EL KABEIR
MUBTAAHIJ (completely depends on early money)

[cartman]

American Pharoah looks so natural running. I think if he can handle the traffic of a 20 horse race, he has a really good chance at winning.

[QuikSand]

Online PPs: http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf

Includes post position and morning line odds. Nothing jarring there.

[QuikSand]

So, just as I felt my thinking was starting to crystallize, I heard Andrew Beyer in a radio bit yesterday. He does not have a great track record with big races, but he sounds awfully compelling as he talks racing - and I tend to swoon just a bit.

So, in talking about the big two, he singled out AMERICAN PHAROAH as untested and potentially fragile despite being brilliant... and preferred DORTMUND as having proven himself more. Just as I was downgrading DORTMUND from my top spot (mostly due to his pedestrian finishing 3f in the SA Derby) and starting to believe in AP due to his great workouts.

He also pretty much dismissed MATERIALITY as too unseasoned, but in doing so talked up his pick, UPSTART. I had been planting him as my value play for the year, but has started to cool off a bit of late. Now after hearing Beyer's argument, I'm giving him another close look.

Waffling.

[QuikSand]

Given that draw, it really does look like MATERIALITY has every chance to get out front. He likely has the most natural speed in the field, and from post #3 nobody has a great angle to run with him. DORTMUND could give chase just to stay out of the fray, and I guess BOLO and FIRING LINE are players for the front there.

MATERIALITY got the lead in his last race at Gulfstream, but he really lugged home (nearly 40 seconds for the last 3 furlongs, that's awful). They say the surface was very slow and heavy that day (unusual for Gulfstream) so that's a caveat... but I don't see how he carries out that speed even further with more real talent behind him here.

I'm looking more closely at BOLO now.

[weegeebored]

Materiality has the biggest "no win" flag for me -- Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner unraced as a 2yo. And there will be others that will want to lead. I don't see a horse in here that can steal the race on the front end, especially at 10 furlongs. War Emblem did it but I can't remember another horse who did. That's not to say an upfront horse won't win, but I'm thinking an early presser or presser type with tactical speed. AP fits the bill but can't take a short-ish price with this many contenders.

[Coffee Warlord]

I think I've pared down to 4 candidates.

Materiality, American Pharoah, Frosted, and El Kabier.

Between the two big boys (AP and Dort), I'm just not feeling Dortmund.

[QuikSand]

I just wrapped a meeting with my "syndicate" friends - we have about $1600 to throw at this thing.

We decided that both MATERIALITY and FIRING LINE were worth a theory play as potential "steal it on the lead" entries. I don't love either, but working with that much money, I don't mind playing a wide range of theories.

My colleagues there were higher on STANFORD than I am (which is not at all), and liked the two aforementioned speedsters better than I did as well. one friend, who tends to like the same horses as I do, is struggling between DORTMUND and FROSTED as his top pick. Both figured heavily in our many bets.

[murrayyyyy]

Looking at a tri-box of 18-2-10 probably.

[murrayyyyy]

We decided that both MATERIALITY and FIRING LINE were worth a theory play as potential "steal it on the lead" entries. I don't love either, but working with that much money, I don't mind playing a wide range of theories.


I got off Materiality because Velazquez rode both this year and he's on Carpe Diem for the Derby. Figure the last thing I want is the jockey Materiality has had for his career on another horse inside of him.

[Coffee Warlord]

That's been giving me pause as well. You gotta figure Velazquez had his pick of the two horses, and he chose Carpe Diem over Materiality.

[QuikSand]

Not sure why that would come as a surprise. CD is a far more accomplished horse, and the betting public is likely to agree, just like the line makers did.

[QuikSand]

Just the first small wave of betting in, but a few early trends. Some of these tend to hold up.

2015 Kentucky Derby 141 Live Odds | 2015 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 1 and 2, 2015 | Tickets, Events, News (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/kentucky-derby-live-odds)

My quick thoughts:

8 DORTMUND up to 5-1 from ML of 3, interesting
18 AMERICAN PHAROAH steady at 5-2
15 FROSTED down to 9-1 from 15, rats
19 UPSTART at 36-1 WTF
7 EL KABEIR down to 20 from 30
3 MATERIALITY up from 12 to 19

[QuikSand]

I'm trying to get my syndicate friends to move our orphaned STANFORD money onto UPSTART. If he goes off at that price I will have a sizable win bet there, that's monstrous value. Not convinced he's the best in this field, but he's not in the bottom third by any stretch. He's a 10-1 horse in this field, I'd say.

[QuikSand]

El Kabeir May Be Scratched From Kentucky Derby (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/02/sports/el-kabeir-may-be-scratched-from-kentucky-derby.html)

That absurd also-eligible from Dallas Stewart might get a go after all. That horse ought to go off at 450-1.

[Coffee Warlord]

Damn, I had high hopes for El Kabeir, too.

[QuikSand]

I'm not going to post every bet here, but taking a stab at the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3: 5, 12, 13/7, 9, 12/8, 15, 18, 19

(with morning line odds)

Condo Commando 4/1 -
Stellar Wind 7/2 -
Birdatthewire 6/1 -
===
JACK MILTON 5/1 -
SEEK AGAIN 4/1 -
GRAND ARCH 8/1 -
===
Dortmund 3/1 -
Frosted 15/1 -
American Pharoah 5/2 -
Upstart 15/1 -

I'd like the payout on that 13-12-19 combo, baby!

[QuikSand]

Most entries are staying put through the day,but UPSTART is settling... at 36 when I posted earlier, then 34, now 33. Doubt he drops all the way back to 15, but 25 is still tasty.

[QuikSand]

ELKABEIR scratched

[murrayyyyy]

ELKABEIR scratched

Double gates mean everyone from 6 down comes in correct? Makes me feel better about the 2 now.

[QuikSand]

I'm increasingly convinced that Gary Stevens will gun for the lead with FIRING LINE, and that he might even get in front of MATERIALITY. I expect OCHO to get up there too, maybe they'll start three across. I give FIRING LINE the best shot of "stealing" this on the front end, though I don't really buy that any of them are good enough to do it while challenged at all.

Sounds like OCHO will break from the 2 slot in the gate, and the 22 AE doesn't draw in.

[QuikSand]

I was unable (so far) to get my syndicate interested in 4 TENCENDUR, so I'll be putting something together including him on my own. He's the only deep long shot I'm playing today, I'm pretty sure. I'll have UPSTART broadly, of course, but at better than 50 I also think TENCENDUR is an overlay and has a shot to hit the board.

[Coffee Warlord]

So my lone tri for the race will go:

Materiality, Frosted, American Pharoah.

[weegeebored]

AP is currently 8-5. That is insane. I will definitely have tickets with him out of the money. The payoffs will be huge.

[QuikSand]

INERNATIONAL STAR has also scratched. Darn, he was a throw out for me.

[QuikSand]

Latest odds on the favorites: AP 3-1, DORT 4-1

[QuikSand]

UPSTART down to 21
FROSTED at 9
FIRING LINE at 8

This should settle down a bit from here, lots of race day money came in early.

[weegeebored]

I can't recall a KD with this many scratches. Increases the chances of AP for what it's worth. I think he will be the favorite @2-1 come post time; Dortmund probably 3-1.

[QuikSand]

I'd agree that a late wave on chalk seems likely, I'd agree AP gets bet down to 2, not sure on DORTMUND, he might hold at 4.

Would be interesting if they ran 1-2...loser ships right to Belmont perhaps, but only to run if there's a Preakness upset?

[weegeebored]

Would be interesting if they ran 1-2...Would kill every one of my tickets.

[murrayyyyy]

I'm seeing dort+ap versus field with dort-ap being even money right now. Thinking about taking a small bit on it.field is -130

If either drops below 2... forgot to add that

[Coffee Warlord]

I'd agree that a late wave on chalk seems likely, I'd agree AP gets bet down to 2, not sure on DORTMUND, he might hold at 4.

Would be interesting if they ran 1-2...loser ships right to Belmont perhaps, but only to run if there's a Preakness upset?

I actually put a cheap exacta on those two just for kicks. :)

[weegeebored]

Likely going with this part wheel: 2,8,15 / 2,3,6,8,10,15,18 / 2,3,4,6,8,10,15,18 -- $108 for the buck tri

Leaving off Upstart at my own peril, but can't put every horse in. Still might leave AP off this ticket as the Dortmund/AP/whoever payoff will be thin.

Will likely play the late Pick 4 but haven't looked at the other races yet. Good luck to everyone.

[QuikSand]

My main betting:

Keys: 15, 18, 19
Used: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10

My syndicate and I are both vulnerable to any of the bombers (other than the 4) hitting in the top two spots. Cold be a $2K wipeout, which would kinda suck.

[kingfc22]

I guess NBC ignored all the negative feedback from the Super Bowl as the figure skaters are back talking nonsense.

[Lathum]

2-3-6 tri and exacta box

3-8-18 exacta box

3 to win and place

[murrayyyyy]

One day i will remember to exacta box my tri...

[digamma]

That was a great race to watch, from the very amateur observer's gallery.

[QuikSand]

So, I'm a big believer in observing the pace of the race to best understand what's really happening. You see my previous comments in this thread along those lines - will 3 get a clear lead? Will Stevens send the 10? Etc. it matters quite a bit.

It definitely shaped this race a ton. The 3 got pinched out and had no chance (I'm shocked he landed in 6th not 16th), DORTMUND found himself on the default lead early, and Stevens clearly didn't want to run out ahead. PHAROAH sat right behind them as the pace was rather slow. As they came through the backstretch in their slow times with no serious effort, I barked "that's the triple right there," it's hard to catch leaders who haven't worked hard - doubly so when they are the real talent in the field.

Not a knock on the winner, who ran well and deserves his props. He had to beat out two others who had a great shot also, and he did it with authority. But that pace really dictated the race. No idea how different it would have played out with just one tiny change -- MATERIALITY breaks cleanly and runs about three lengths ahead of this crowd after 1 1/2 panels. Might have been really different.

[QuikSand]

As for my bets, I did okay but not great. I didn't use the 10 as widely as others, and I only hit the triple once for a bit more than $100. Not a huge score.

My syndicate more of the same. The very first bet we put together, a "foundation," was a six horse box Superfecta, which ended up hitting for $600 plus. Given that, I feel like we should have done better than we did - we ended upside down on the day. Alas.

[Jon]

I did very well today. Hit on the place and 50 cent trifecta and made a killing on the superfecta. I just wish I had bet what I was originally going to on the super.

[weegeebored]

So, I'm a big believer in observing the pace of the race to best understand what's really happening. You see my previous comments in this thread along those lines - will 3 get a clear lead? Will Stevens send the 10? Etc. it matters quite a bit.

It definitely shaped this race a ton. The 3 got pinched out and had no chance (I'm shocked he landed in 6th not 16th), DORTMUND found himself on the default lead early, and Stevens clearly didn't want to run out ahead. PHAROAH sat right behind them as the pace was rather slow. As they came through the backstretch in their slow times with no serious effort, I barked "that's the triple right there," it's hard to catch leaders who haven't worked hard - doubly so when they are the real talent in the field.

Not a knock on the winner, who ran well and deserves his props. He had to beat out two others who had a great shot also, and he did it with authority. But that pace really dictated the race. No idea how different it would have played out with just one tiny change -- MATERIALITY breaks cleanly and runs about three lengths ahead of this crowd after 1 1/2 panels. Might have been really different.Excellent post; could not have said it better. I don't think we'll have a TC winner in AP, but the battle to the wire was exciting to watch. Of course, it's hard to know if track maintenance had something to do with the outcome, but previous dirt races looked pretty speed favoring.

[Dutch]

I dont normally pay attention to horse racing, but one of my good friend's (who I met back in my military days) brother is the jockey for Mr. Z...we were rooting like crazy for them, but they finish 15 lengths off the pace. Still neat to have an indirect vested interest in the outcome.

[QuikSand]

I'm really surprised that DORTMUND is still being pointed toward the Preakness.

Field continues to take shape for Preakness 2015 - Baltimore Sun (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horse-racing/preakness/bs-sp-preakness-field-update-20150505-story.html)

If all of the top three remain in the field, I think AP might go off at 2-1 or so. Hard to say.

[QuikSand]

Preakness Field

1. American Pharaoh 4/5
2. Dortmund 7/2
3. Mr. Z 20/1
4. Danzig Moon 15/1
5. Tale of Verve 30/1
6. Bodhisattva 20/1
7. Divining Rod 20/1
8. Firing Line 7/2

[britrock88]

I'm always a little miffed that the Derby runs ~20 and the Preakness runs 40-50% of that number. Anyone know why?

[cartman]

I'm always a little miffed that the Derby runs ~20 and the Preakness runs 40-50% of that number. Anyone know why?

Usually it is because some of the longer shot horses that qualify put all their eggs in the Kentucky Derby basket. If they flame out there, there usually isn't much of an impetus to put the money into further training and prep for the Preakness.

[weegeebored]

If all of the top three remain in the field, I think AP might go off at 2-1 or so. Hard to say.Bettors typically go with the the "Horse A beat both Horse B and Horse C" approach so it's nearly certain that AP will be a low-priced favorite especially in a small-ish field. I'm thinking even money or less. This is a no play race for me (unless Dortmund is 7-2), and it wouldn't shock me if AP won. I would actually like to see that as that makes the Belmont more interesting, and makes AP a big "play against" in that race.

[QuikSand]

Bettors typically go with the the "Horse A beat both Horse B and Horse C" approach so it's nearly certain that AP will be a low-priced favorite especially in a small-ish field. I'm thinking even money or less. This is a no play race for me (unless Dortmund is 7-2), and it wouldn't shock me if AP won. I would actually like to see that as that makes the Belmont more interesting, and makes AP a big "play against" in that race.

I am on the same line of thought here.

[QuikSand]

Early wagering is not as strong an indicator in the Preakness as the Derby, but in the early money yesterday the bettors put AP at 3-5, FIRING LINE at 5-2, and DORTMUND at 8-1.

So, there could be some value in this race after all.

[weegeebored]

8-1 would be a no-brainer play on Dortmund for me. Won't get that, but maybe the trend indicates that he might be 4-1 come post time.

[murrayyyyy]

4th race in 2 months for AP worries me here with those being all his races this year. I don't know why but I keep thinking the two outside horses end up here going 8-7 exacta box.

[murrayyyyy]

78,78,field,field super. Have to go for it aince it cost only 60

[QuikSand]

Might be more speed here than in the entire 20 horse field two weeks ago. Word/talk is that DWL is gong to send MR Z to the front just to mess up the race, he's a spitefult shit, so the theory works, even if it cooks his guy he might mess up the TC shot.

[QuikSand]

I don't expect to bet heavily, but 8 might be my leave-out guy here.

[QuikSand]

Looks like DORTMUND settling in at 9-2. I'm on the fence, but I think that's solid value.

[MacroGuru]

I am lucking out this weekend. Last night got great seats in the O's game for cheap and today, I will be going to watch the Preakness. Yeah, I will be catching the race and the one after, but I am thinking an Trifecta Box of

Dortmund
AP
Firing Line

[weegeebored]

You might not get your money back on that tri with the top three horses.

[QuikSand]

So, I might get a chance to see my 9th TC failure. Actually, no real quarrel here with AP's breeding, and the running style suits me fine. I expect we'll see healthy field - likely wheeling back FROSTED, MATERIALITY, UPSTART, CARPE DIEM do who know who else from the Derby field, plus a few fresh shooters.

To be honest, I'd really like to actually see this happen, and I like Baffert enough that I'd be okay if this is the guy.

Will, however, be looking at this as a beat-the-fave opportunity which has historically been the right play.

[MacroGuru]

Well, we ended up going and getting there in time. We still managed to hit the rain storm.

They kicked us all back inside when the storm came down due to lightning but still called the horses to post.

When they were getting ready to start they let us all back outside. Everyone stayed under the awning while I hit the fence right off the bat. I was right at the finish line of the Preakness!

It was an amazing race and my first and definitely won't be my last!

[weegeebored]

To be honest, I'd really like to actually see this happen...I get what you're saying, but as a long time player and fan I would hate to have to include AP in the same breath as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, etc. AP's running times / speed figs are pedestrian. This is simply a case where the 3yo crop is poor, and AP is the best of a mediocre bunch.

As you mentioned about DWL, there will be trainers who will do what they can to compromise AP's chances. AP is a big play against in the Belmont; I just need to figure out who wins it. :)

[QuikSand]

Hmm, I think you're in something of a minority calling this crop poor. But maybe with Dortmund's fade, that strengthens that argument.

Anyway - I'm basically with you, and will be looking for value in the Belmont. I haven't read anything about UPSTART, but both he and FROSTED are likely to figure in my Belmont wagering if present. I didn't really back MATERIALITY in the Derby, but he ran well after getting shut out early - a gutty race like that, with five weeks off and a forward style all point toward a good setup. I'll need to digest more about his pedigree, but I could see him kicking some mud in AP's eyes early on.

[murrayyyyy]

I get what you're saying, but as a long time player and fan I would hate to have to include AP in the same breath as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, etc. AP's running times / speed figs are pedestrian. This is simply a case where the 3yo crop is poor, and AP is the best of a mediocre bunch.

But why would you push AP if it wasn't needed? He got him in front, gave him a rest and still won easily on a track that was anything but fast with the amount of rain dropped on it. Slew ran a horrible time in his Belmont on a slop track but no one mentions it because he completed the triple crown. If AP wins running away in New York then he's earned the TC.

[weegeebored]

But why would you push AP if it wasn't needed?I didn't say that the jock should. But you're just making my point about a mediocre crop of 3yos.

[murrayyyyy]

I didn't say that the jock should. But you're just making my point about a mediocre crop of 3yos.

He ran a 22.4 in the slop. That pace from the start would spend a lot of good horses energy. He is faster out of the blocks and faster down the finish.

[cartman]

American Pharoah gets the 5 post, and is a 3/5 favorite at this point.

[murrayyyyy]

Is there anything to like besides 5,6,8?

[cartman]

Is there anything to like besides 5,6,8?

Zito has twice thwarted a Triple Crown with horses that were at least 30-1. Frammento is.. 30-1.

[QuikSand]

For what it's worth, there seems to be remarkably litle buzz around this race, I presume since there's "trying to finish the TC" fatigue" or somesuch. I just got my tickets, and they were far cheaper and more plentiful than last year. And I give AP a much greater shot at winning this than I did CC last year, for whatever that is worth.

We'll see. I will likely be betting FROSTED as my key horse.

[weegeebored]

I think that AP is the most likely winner but will be pounded at the windows. This is a decent betting race if one is of the mind to toss him from the top spot. Or tossing from the place spot as well if making $$ is the object.

[QuikSand]

I think KEEN ICE is the "bomber" play, but likely won't hold 20-1. Curlin looks like he's developing as a quite legitimate distance sire, and this horse might have the best overall distance pedigree in the field if you take that leap of faith.

[murrayyyyy]

Playing favs while killing off the 8. Super 56,56,12347,12347.

The more i look at the 8 the more i think he has no shot.

[weegeebored]

Not a great betting race for me but going to take a shot against AP. TRIs and SUPERs out for me; I can't see AP not finishing at least 4th and very well may blow the field away although 12f is going to be a tough get. Going with some exactas, with one using AP in the place hole as a saver bet. If the track is sloppy then I won't play at all. FWIW, these plays are based on solid pedigree ratings.

6,7,8 / 3,5,6,7,8 -- $12 per unit

I really like Frosted in here. I might make a win bet on him as well.

[EagleFan]

Thinking Materiality for this one.

[EagleFan]

Wow, not what I expected.

[EagleFan]

Gotta love live TV... "holy shit"

[kingfc22]

Thought he might get caught after having to set the pace, but he ended up pulling away to win with ease.

[MacroGuru]

Holy Shit!

That was awesome.

When I was in Vegas a few weeks ago I put money on AP to win the crown.

[murrayyyyy]

Not often i hit a superfecta and have no desire to go get my money. $285...blah, but worth it to stop hearing how impossible a triple crown is.

[PilotMan]

Well, I hope Quick got to see that. I won't deny that it brought a tear to my eye, even though I didn't get to see it live and knew how it ended.

[cartman]

Amazing race by a great horse. Ran outside the whole way at Churchill, then won by wide margins at the Preakness and Belmont. Ran the 6th fastest time ever at the Belmont, only 2.5 seconds off of Secretariat's record run, even with the rather pedestrian times for the first half-mile.

[weegeebored]

Ran the 6th fastest time ever at the Belmont, only 2.5 seconds off of Secretariat's record run, even with the rather pedestrian times for the first half-mile.The fact that AP set an average pace plus the fact that he wasn't pressured on a track that was playing very fast actually contributed to his fast time. Wedding Toast set a stakes record in the Phipps, Honor Code ran the 6th fastest Met Mile, March ran the 5th fastest Woody Stephens... Plus Coach Inge ran his 12f with a faster final 1/4 than AP --23.96 to 24.32. And Coach Inge was passed in the stretch and came back to win. Who is Coach Inge? Exactly.

So while people are all abuzz about AP I just think that things set up well for him, and he's the best of a mediocre class. He did run through his pedigree, though, I'll give him that.

[Senator]

Happy to see this, since the last one I witnessed was on my daddy's knee.

[BillyNYC]

Was at Belmont today, after attending last year for the first time.

The pure mass euphoria in the grandstand was something truly memorable. After I spent most of the previous few hours cursing everyone under my breath (an abundance of the stereotypical drunk fratboy types; someone brought hummus, which made its way to the ground and onto everyone's feet and pants; etc, etc, etc), there was nothing but goodwill. Everyone smiling, cheering, many jumping up and down. No one caring about their bets (much).

Last year, after the race, most of the crowd left very quickly. Today, a large portion stayed, just soaking it all in. (I'm doubting many cared about the 2 races remaining on the card, nor the Goo Goo Dolls concert later).

Very happy to have experienced it live.

[Karlifornia]

Was at Belmont today, after attending last year for the first time.

The pure mass euphoria in the grandstand was something truly memorable. After I spent most of the previous few hours cursing everyone under my breath (an abundance of the stereotypical drunk fratboy types; someone brought hummus, which made its way to the ground and onto everyone's feet and pants; etc, etc, etc), there was nothing but goodwill. Everyone smiling, cheering, many jumping up and down. No one caring about their bets (much).

Last year, after the race, most of the crowd left very quickly. Today, a large portion stayed, just soaking it all in. (I'm doubting many cared about the 2 races remaining on the card, nor the Goo Goo Dolls concert later).

Very happy to have experienced it live.

They have races afterwards? :lol: "Okay, folks, Mayweather has just beaten Pacquiao, now stay in your seats....we've got two up and coming bantamweights to whet your whistle"

[QuikSand]

Was at Belmont today, after attending last year for the first time.

The pure mass euphoria in the grandstand was something truly memorable. After I spent most of the previous few hours cursing everyone under my breath (an abundance of the stereotypical drunk fratboy types; someone brought hummus, which made its way to the ground and onto everyone's feet and pants; etc, etc, etc), there was nothing but goodwill. Everyone smiling, cheering, many jumping up and down. No one caring about their bets (much).

Last year, after the race, most of the crowd left very quickly. Today, a large portion stayed, just soaking it all in. (I'm doubting many cared about the 2 races remaining on the card, nor the Goo Goo Dolls concert later).

Very happy to have experienced it live.

Agree with most of this, myself. The crowds were absolutely deafening down the stretch and at the finish. It was worth the time and travel to have been there. Really fun sports event to witness live. (That hummus was pretty good, too)

[QuikSand]

I didn't hit the race as hard as Murayyyyy but did manage the triple a couple of times, and came out ahead for the race. I'm not in any hurry to throw water on the great accomplishment, but I do agree that the slow early pace set things up perfectly for AP. After they posted that half mile time, I yelled at my friend "well, all that's left is whether his pedigree catches up with him...no other horse will." Much like the Derby.

My betting syndicate ended up with a pretty big day despite the chalky feature - we wrapped up with the pick 4 and multiple hits on the pick 3 ending with the Belmont Stakes, and we ended up substantially ahead for the three race effort. Given that we were not really heavy chalk, and AP didn't pay much in any of the three races, that's a key achievement. I didn't have anything to do with hitting the Manhattan winner at 14-1, but I helped us key on the the two winners, neither of whom were favorites.

And out of the blue, as we decided to wait for traffic to die down, my friend and I just crushed the puny race that ran an hour after the Belmont. He managed to scatter his tickets to avoid the IRS window (just barely) but that was a great way to end the day on a good note.

[weegeebored]

They have races afterwards? :lol: "Okay, folks, Mayweather has just beaten Pacquiao, now stay in your seats....we've got two up and coming bantamweights to whet your whistle"The bantamweights would likely have been better fights.

[weegeebored]

The early BSFs are out. (I say early because Beyer and his figure makers have been known to adjust the figs after the fact.)

AP:105
Coach Inge (whose previous two races were OCL): 102

The latter had a much tougher time of it. I'm not ready to induct AP into the HoF. I only wish that winning the TC would have a positive impact on the sport, but it won't. I don't think we will see new players getting into the game because of it.

[murrayyyyy]

The early BSFs are out. (I say early because Beyer and his figure makers have been known to adjust the figs after the fact.)

AP:105
Coach Inge (whose previous two races were OCL): 102

The latter had a much tougher time of it. I'm not ready to induct AP into the HoF. I only wish that winning the TC would have a positive impact on the sport, but it won't. I don't think we will see new players getting into the game because of it.

I just don't understand the disappointment. My triple crown history is weak but has any other horse won his triple crown against a bigger field? I think 2 of them were in 8 horse fields also and the rest were smaller. He ran against a well rested field and still won easily. Sad part is I think he still had more in the tank if he needed it yesterday.

Will it take a win @ Classic in October to get any credit(not picking on you, I just see this reaction a lot)? A year ago we heard everyone say it can never happen because people enjoy the spoiler role more than in the past.

Also I don't think anything will bring the horse racing back.

[murrayyyyy]

I didn't hit the race as hard as Murayyyyy but did

When I heard the 6 say they had planned on breaking harder than most assumed I felt really good about the Super I placed. When they kept the 8 three wide I knew he was done. Frosted did AP a big favor.Disappointed the 8 didn't get more money but this race seemed to easy to handicap up top.

Of course to get my 5 year old to stay still I had him repeating before the race "green, black, no pink". He kept reminding me that I had orange, pink in the last race(because he likes to jinx my bets). Is it wrong for a 5 year old to remember the silks from the triple crown races?

[weegeebored]

Will it take a win @ Classic in October to get any credit(not picking on you, I just see this reaction a lot)?He won't race as a 4yo so I'll wait to see what race(s) he will run in. But yeah, if he wins the Classic then he would rank up there as one of the best 3 year olds of all time. It will be hard to compare him with the all-time greats as he won't run nearly as many races as Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Secretariat, etc.

[Butter]

Playing favs while killing off the 8. Super 56,56,12347,12347.

The more i look at the 8 the more i think he has no shot.

Should've listened to you. I went 5-6-7-8.

[TCY Junkie]

I didn't hit the race as hard as Murayyyyy but did manage the triple a couple of times, and came out ahead for the race. I'm not in any hurry to throw water on the great accomplishment, but I do agree that the slow early pace set things up perfectly for AP. After they posted that half mile time, I yelled at my friend "well, all that's left is whether his pedigree catches up with him...no other horse will." Much like the Derby.

My betting syndicate ended up with a pretty big day despite the chalky feature - we wrapped up with the pick 4 and multiple hits on the pick 3 ending with the Belmont Stakes, and we ended up substantially ahead for the three race effort. Given that we were not really heavy chalk, and AP didn't pay much in any of the three races, that's a key achievement. I didn't have anything to do with hitting the Manhattan winner at 14-1, but I helped us key on the the two winners, neither of whom were favorites.

And out of the blue, as we decided to wait for traffic to die down, my friend and I just crushed the puny race that ran an hour after the Belmont. He managed to scatter his tickets to avoid the IRS window (just barely) but that was a great way to end the day on a good note.

I didn't bet much at all on the race. Didn't like 3/5 but didn't know who could beat him........ Friday I lost 3 races in a photo finish that would have paid great but still ended up for the day......... I took my gf to see mad max when it came out, told her I was going to leave to watch honor code run. I did, he finished pretty badly that day. I read some write ups about last years belmont winner tonalist and looked at him and decided he was my best bet of the day. Looked at honor code and thought if he beats me good for him, he did. I knew I couldn't win much on american pharoah betting win money so I looked at the race before. I looked at the favorites but I was scared of the 7. The weight break, liking belmont, and liking the distance. Really couldn't separate any of the horses that were the favorites and slumber looked good in his previous start at belmont. Like way better than his other starts. Scared me, so I bet him and won a good chunk on him........ Felt a little dumb for not having honor code figuring it would be a fast pace and him being a dead closer, why I like watching him. He didn't have a great setup like he did belmont day. Inspired me to look at the program for over 30 minutes and be less dumb. Figured I'd lose on slumber but he looked like the value.